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Varchild2008 (84.15)

March 2010



Varchild's favorite retail stocks going forward

March 25, 2010 – Comments (3)

Varchild's favorite retail stocks going forward

10) CBOU

9)  RMCF

8)  GME

7)  BBY

6)  SBUX

5)  AEO

4)  URBN

3)  HD

2)  SKX   *NOTE:  They are both Retail & Shoe company*

Varchild's #1  Favorite Retail Stock)  .................VITC

*NOTE*  Amazon didn't make the list cause APPLE is going to crush Amazon's market share with their my ignorant opinion.




Blitzkrieg Stocks....Uh Oh..Let's Go Higher!

March 25, 2010 – Comments (8)

All the Analysts hate my....
Stocks in my portfolio....
Tellin eveyone to sell....
But everyone says **** NO!


Uh Oh....Let's Go!
Uh Oh... Trade Higher!

Economy is in shambles....
It's the edge of collapse
The Bears wants to beat the Bulls...
But their just getting lapped...


Uh Go....DOW GO!!

Uh Go....DOW GO!!

11 Thousand.....
Seems like a fantasy...
Maybe it's a panacea,
Cause ain't no Wallstreet Fear here..



My company just went bankrupt...
Gov't lighting dollars on fire
Does anyone even care??
Stock price is still going higher!


Uh Oh.....Let's Go!



America's Representative Aristocracy

March 24, 2010 – Comments (4)   defines "Aristocracy" to mean:

1. a class of persons holding exceptional rank and privileges, esp. the hereditary nobility. 2. a government or state ruled by an aristocracy, elite, or privileged upper class. 5. any class or group considered to be superior, as through education, ability, wealth, or social prestige.

Hmm.... Does this sound like America to you?

A)  To run a political campaign you have to be RICH...or have RICH backers to your campaign.
Except for some few exceptions Senators, Representatives, and the President of the United States must land the job by generating millions of dollars from the Upper Class through fundraisers.

B)  The Rulers get their own version of Healthcare and Retirement Benefits not available to those they rule over.  Thus they are priveledged.

C)  Obamacare?   Not going to apply to the President or Congress.  They are the only ones exempted....

D)  What?  You say we are still a Representative Democracy?

How is that so when Congress has the power to change the entire economic system with a single vote?

Think about this..... Since all financial, retirement, health care, etc. benefits are all packaged and delivered to you for your ENTIRE LIFE at the very SECOND you are seated in office....  Then you are much like a Supreme Court Judge with no concerns about being voted out of office.

Vote out a congressman/woman  and he/she won't care.... they get everything anyhow!  They are set for life from day 1.....

That is not a system that motivates Representation.....  Which is why there is no real Representative Democracy.....  The Health Care bill passed only because of this very real problem.  What exactly does anyone have to lose if they vote against the WILL of the American people?

The excess priviledges and elitism and nobility only begins there....

Why is it Congress decides what their PAY is?  they can raise their pay......American people don't decide it!

Why is it Congress gets to police themselves in terms of Ethics?  It is THEIR ethics committee.....!
Run and managed by the majority.  Which can let obvious, unethical behavior slide....

Alcee Hastings is another problem..... This man was impeached...!!!    Why does that mean he can still run for office and still end up getting a seat in Congress?

There is no ZERO TOLERANCE policy in Congress..... 

And America calls themselves a Democracy???  representative democracy?     lower case R...Capital my opinion.  [more]



How to REPEAL HR 3200: Varchild's Tea Party Master Plan

March 23, 2010 – Comments (6)

How to REPEAL  HR 3200:  Varchild's Tea Party Master Plan

Step 1) 
Write and save a letter/e-mail that asks your representative, or senator to repeal HR 3200.

Step 2)  Send the letter to your congressman, congress lady, or Senator.

Step 3)  Repeat this as often as you like BUT!!!!!   DO NOT EXHUAST YOURSELF!!!!!!! 

WARNING!!!!             Pick 1<------    just send the letter to......  DO NOT attempt to over exhaust yourself......  Then fire the thing to that person say..... once or twice a month???

We will need as many of you to constantly hit Senators and Congress people on this subject over and over and over endlessly to 2016 or however long it takes to repeal this.

We need to hit and hit and hit...

And we don't do this by pretending that VARCHILD has to fire off the letter every single day....non-stop.... to a bazillion politicians......   Heck no!!! 

Varchild is NOT going to exhaust himself..... He is just going to *ping* one person .....and *ping* occasionally when I have time to do so.... Sometimes I may just place a phone call and recite the letter..... I have that choice.

But to defeat HR 3200 is to create a TEA PARTY movement that constantly hits and hits and hits.




It's the End of we knew it! (Obama Theme Song)

March 22, 2010 – Comments (4)

It's the End of we knew it!  It's.....the.....end of we knew it!

And I feel fine.....Still in employment draught.....Cause business has shipped out!

It's the End of we knew it!
Barack has killed.... you knew it!!!

Obama bankrupted.... I knew it!!!!

And I feel fine.....Cause Wall Street feels fine!!!  Let the mourners their underwear!!!

It's the End of Common we know it!
It's... the... End of Frugality....Cause they don't have it!
It's... the.... End of you know it!

Warren Buffet feels fine....riding on his train.....he won't get insane...even if America's out of grain!!

Oh yea....  [more]



If Rep. John Conyers votes NO....Varchild votes YES for him in Nov.

March 21, 2010 – Comments (0)

Representative John Conyers has received plenty of e-mails, online forms, and phone calls and ect. from me on my opposition to the Health Care bill.

What people may not realize is that the very surgeon that operated on my dad's cancer has said the Life Saving Robotic Arm he used would go away due to a number of things (10% tax on medical devices) in the Health Care Bill, if it passes.   He also said many other medical devices could be in jeopardy and that this is what the Hospital told him and what he himself believes having studied the bill.

So a "yes" vote could result in the deaths of future cancer patients that can not get access to the Robotic Arm.

It's about the ROBOTIC ARM...... it's about LIFE SAVINGS MEDICAL DEVICES.......Conyers!

You can't make this stuff up cause I'd be the most vile human being on the planet if I was lying....err I guess that would make me President of the United States when I turn 35 or so.

But seriously..... I am so against the Health Care Bill.... that if Rep. John Conyers votes against the bill I will vote in FAVOR of Rep. John Conyers and probably tell many many many others to vote him back in office.

It's that important to me that this bill not pass.  [more]



You are about to enter the Twilight Zone!

March 19, 2010 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: UNH

Don't Adjust your Stock Portfolios......Don't abandon your CAPS picks.... There's nothing wrong with your stocks....or your CAPS......You are enter the Twilight Zone!

It was Sunday Morning in Washington D.C. but this was no ordinary Sunday Morning.....
There was no sunlight.......heavy fog....and blood curdling cries were heard as gun shots cracked the dark morning air, somewhere several streets away from the Capital Building..  [more]



Video Game Chat Screen Humor at Mochi Media (GAME)

March 16, 2010 – Comments (5)

Just decided to share some of what's being said although I am paraphrasing heavily because FOOL.COM is a family website..... anyhow.. found it silly enough to share the Video Game Chat Screen Humor:

Video Gamer 1)  I'm the President of the United States and I can do anything I want!  :-)

Video Gamer 2)  Obama

Video Gamer 3)  Except being a successful president!

Video Gamer 4)  President Barack Obama can just *&^*%*$%  *&^%% 

Video Gamer 5)  Ha ha ha!  I live in England!!!   Obama, Can't do anything to me over here buddy!

Video Gamer 6)  You don't have to love Obama  *expletive*

Video Gamer 5)   Uhm.....guys... I'll be Brad Pitt instead! 

One thing I know is that political rhetoric in video gaming doesn't reflect anywhere normally outside of the video game...or anywhere.....  But still...  A small tiny random conversation in a single video game among the multitudes of games on Mochi Media Generated the conversation above... :-)  [more]



Another Test for MACD Divergence

March 15, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Article Today says MACD Divergence resulted in a bullish MACD run from that point forward from Early February (divergence) to today.  Share price has hit a closing high post divergence today I believe.

So... what about my other stock?  Is it time for a Bullish run for (GAME)?

Note I own a significant stake in GAME as a long term play not a MACD Divergence short term look and see.

But..nontheless.. Here's another opportunity to see if MACD Divergence is a load of garbage or an effective predictor of what is to come.

Cause... It looks to me like TODAY... exactly TODAY.... is (GAME)'s  MACD Divergence day.

Correct me if I am wrong... I usually am!  [more]



Varchild is an idiot: (DPS)

March 11, 2010 – Comments (7)

Crap!  It does not make sense to me to see a stock trading well past 82% RSI 3-month.....

But.... whatever.... shares of (DPS) going up big today.....

On one had I am dumb for suggesting DPS was starting to get overpriced in case any one was thinking of Trading in and out of the stock rather than holding it long....I thought to say heck why not Profit Take while the RSI is up huge?

Now the share price skyrockets.... well.... Goes to show that when it comes to a stock like DPS you never ever should thinking to just TRADE the stock.... Best if you did what I did..declare the thing as your retirement stock and enjoy the ride.



Varchild issues SELL recommendation on shares of (DPS)

March 09, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

1)  I AM NOT an analyst.. you know one's that don't read Stocks for Dummies books and actually get paid to BLOG about stocks?


2)  FULL DISCLOSURE  I own 526 shares of DPS.

Ok... so I am saying, glancing at DPS's ridiculous climb.... and I have to say....  This is OVERPRICED.

I think this one is fairly valued at around $32.50 - $33.50.  
It closed at $33.47 but hit an intraday 52-week high of $33.93.

DPS a $34.00 stock???    not yet!!!!  not yet!!! I say....   

DPS at nearly 15.5 P/E is fairly valued.... any higher..say touching $34.00 and this is just plain PIGGY PIGGY PIGGY  OINK OINK OINK  SNORT SNORT SNORT.

I have no plans on profit taking DPS as we are very close to the Dividend EX date and frankly I don't profit take a stock I have declared as a "RETIREMENT STOCK."

DPS remains my biggest $ investment in my portfolio.  It will always carry a larger $ value than any other investment I get into.... This one's a retirement stock... It's a KEEP FOREVER stock in a sense....

With that said.....  While I'd be thrilled to see DPS @  1 Million $  per share of stock....

We have to realize something....  DPS growth is not in the ballpark of HANS.... It is solid growth to be sure but it is not a HANS growth.   So I say 15.4 / 15.5 P/E  is fairly valued....  

I'd profit take right around here expecially if it starts to go higher tomorrow.....  That is only speaking to "STOCK TRADERS" out there...

And realize that I am a moron here.... an idiot...  This analysis really is only based on 2 things:

1)  3 Month RSI is near 80% now.


2)  GUT FEELING tells me that $34.00 before we get the Q1 earnings report is premature.

I fully expect Q1 earnings to CRUSH estimates..... *pun intended*  

I really really do.... going forward DPS will beat earnings or at least match near the high estimates.
But, given that....looking at the Scottrade Earnings Chart....  This one needs to slow down and go sideways for a bit....pullback a little....  WOAW Horsey... WOAW!

Disagree with me on this?  Think it should go to $40.00 before we get the Earnings Release?  [more]



How FORD sells cars.....

March 08, 2010 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: F

If anyone of you think "CASH FOR CLUNKERS" is over......  You would be wrong! 

Because at some dealerships (F) FORD is still exercising a sort of a Cash for Clunkers program...

I've gotten for the 2nd time a letter in the mail from a local Ford Motor Company Dealership paraphrasing,

"Our records show you have a Ford XXX  2003 model.  Ford Motor Company is in desperate need for these cars and wants to buy your car above market prices.  This coming X  day, X day, X day, this week we are hosting an Appraisal event.  Take in your car and get:

A)  Free Oil Change

B)  Free Filter Change


C)  Free Appraisal of your car."

hmm... think about it.... turn in your car....get paid more than it is worth per something like Kelly Blue Book.... Which you would then use to UPGRADE your car to the latest model.... OR if you are not interested in selling your car you may still get a Free Oil Change + Filter Change for your trouble.

Yes.... CASH FOR CLUNKERS is still in full effect and may be another reason behind the scenes of FORD's dealerships how they were able to extend Cash for Clunkers beyond it's original lifespan.

In other words..... (F) Ford is managed quite well....very well....treating their customers well in the process.  I think this is one of the coolest incentive programs I've seen from a Car Company in quite awhile.  [more]



(PEP), (KO), (HANS) DOWN.....(DPS) trades up

March 08, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS , MNST

Does this mean anything?

(PEP), (KO), (HANS) DOWN.....(DPS) trades up.


But this might:
(PEP)  +5.56%   Year To Date

(KO)    -4.44%  Year To Date

(HANS) +7.17   Year To Date

(DPS)   +15.85%  Year To Date  [more]



*OMG* Sanofi-Aventis at %4.37 Yield?

March 04, 2010 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: SNY

For whatever reason.... and despite Berkshire Hathaway increasing their stake in Sanofi-Aventis, positive news on their pipeline drug for prostate cancer Cabazitaxel,  a below 14 P/E, and $2.46 Cash per Share, this stock continues to underperform the S&P 500.... Taking a wallop today with a loss of 1.09% on their share price.

Taking a look at the chart and how can your eyes not fall out of their sockets and land on the BUY BUY BUY Button on your keyboard??  what???  You don't have a *BUY*  button on your keyboard?

Oh that's right... you are the investor still screaming, "BEAR MARKET RALLY!!!!!  This Stock Market Rally is BUNK!!!!"

But for those of us who want to make money in the BIOTECH sector... Sanofi-Aventis looks awfully apetising right now.

Standard and Poors currently as a $40 price target.

Why shouldn't this stock be bought at this price today?

DISCLOSURE:  I own ZERO shares of SNY but obviously I am thinking about owning some.  [more]



Varchild Announces increase in DPS beverage purchases

March 04, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

My own spending won't move a needle....  and is meaningless....

Nonetheless I am happy to report that IBC Root Beer tastes just so darn good that Varchild is adding 1 6 pack of IBC Root Beer.  And should that be sold out I'll probably pick 1 6 pack of Stewart's Root Beer instead.

Since IPO date in May 2008 my spending habits on DPS Beverages have evolved like this:

Once at the beginning of the month and at every 2-3 weeks intervals:
1) 4-6 Individual Snapple Jars
2) 4 2-Liter DPS Branded Soda / Ginger Ale / etc. Pop.

expanded to:

1) 1 6 pack of Snapple
2) 4 individual jars of Snapple
3) 4 2-liter DPS branded Soda / Ginger Ale / etc. Pop

expanded NOW to:

1)  1 6 pack of Snapple
2)  4 Individual jars of Snapple
3)  4-6 2-liter DPS branded Soda / Ginger Ale / etc. Pop  to almost always include Dr. Pepper Cherry + Dr. Pepper.
4)  1 six pack of IBC or Stewart's Root Beer

In other words.... MOMENTUM BABY!!
Make a shareholder happy with his investment and he returns the favor to the company:-)  [more]



Varchild knows how to defeat RECONCILIATION on Health Care Bills

March 03, 2010 – Comments (3)

Varchild knows how to defeat RECONCILIATION on Health Care Bills

1)  Call/E-mail your Representatives and Senators and Governor in your state with this deal:

Say "NO!" on all versions of Health Care Bills put to any kind of vote or otherwise...

I and everyone in the Tea Party movement that I know will boycott FOOD & GOODS Manufactured in the State you live in.

For example:  Varchild Lives in Michigan....  Varchild already e-mailed Senator Carl Levin with this deal.

It's easy now that there was a recently a Michigan campaign to convince people to buy Michigan.
There is a website that I don't have the link to that can lists "Made in Michigan" brand food and goods.

Yes.... So Great Lakes Potatochips at Shopper's Garden???  Tuff if you think I'll buy anymore should Carl Levin vote YES on the Health Care Bill.

In this way.... this Great TEA PARTY BOYCOTT would saddle the Democrats with a Gigantic Economic Collapse on their hands if they vote YES on Health Care Bills....any version what-so-ever.  [more]



Varchild doesn't sell his ATVI shares afterall. . .

March 03, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

After much baby crying and sulking and moaning..... and grumbling.....over the ongoing "General Hospital" drama at ATVI with lead villain star being "Simon Cowell."   err I mean.. "Bobby Kotick."

I decided it made no sense to sell ATVI shares...... 

What made me change my mind?

The continued realization that the "baby crying and sulking and moaning..... and grumbling" that is ever constant going on at:    forums.....

I mean.. any mention of "Bobby Kotick" or "Activision" immediately generates a bunch of "I HATE YOU ACTIVISION!!!"  and "Bobby Kotick is ruining the fun in Video Gaming..."

Constant attacks and assaults against Activision and Bobby Kotick in the gamespot forums seem endless.... never ending  "baby crying and sulking and moaning..... and grumbling."

Personally.... I woke up today telling myself to GROW UP cause Businesses aren't run like CEDAR POINT where you pay 1 small fee and you can get on any ride and ride it as many times as you want and go "Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee" until the park closes...

Running a Business is extremely tough and there is little room for error....

So I give ACTIVISION's  C.E.O.  the benefit of the doubt here that he knows what he's doing inspite of the miserable Music Genre  Bad Record on his Legacy.   You can't ignore the obvious GOOD Record of success just cause 2009 generated a hefty Q4 loss due to poor performances with the Music Genre and with "TONY HAWK's RIDE."

In short.....

The comments in the forums regarding:  "Singularity.....Blur.....Transformers....." all seem very positive and very focused on the actual VIDEO GAME instead of written obsessively like "OMG!! OMG!!!! I dont' CARE how good the game is... Activision is the publsher."

Video Gaming is about Gaming..... not about whining... sulking... moaning....over how much you do not like so and so and so publishing company... or so and so C.E.O.

So as investors... we have to realize that there is the "PEANUT GALLERY" and then there is the actual "REALITY" and many times what you read in forums "PEANUT GALLERY" stuff is meaningless and misleading big time when it comes to the actual "REALITY" of how video gamers are perceiving the value of games being sold by Activision this year.

So.. some Video Gamers may indeed pull their WOW accounts in whiny...moany...sulky....knee jerk fashion thinking they are "sticking it to the man" but in the end video gamers aren't really that political as they appear at .  





March 02, 2010 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Varchild is thinking of DUMPING his entire stake in ATVI tomorrow. 
I hope to convince myself NOT TO by typing about a topic no Stock Analyst dares to tread:

This could be titled, "Management versus Creative Freedom," because analysts tend to favor Management Style over Creative Freedom (unfortunately).  


First.. MICROPROSE did not operate like Activision (ATVI).   I'm not saying that...

But, I have to mention here that well known game developer and his co-workers fell into some bad blood with Microprose many many moons ago.  This well known game developer went by the name of:   "SID MEIJER"

Whose SID MEIJER?   Civilization, Alpha Centauri, The SIMS.....    You know .... THAT!!! Sid Meijer making up much of (ERTS)'s earnings today!

If SID MEIJER were walking along the street and I actually knew it was him... I'd have CDs of Civilization and The SIMS and Alpha Centauri + a SHARPIE ready to get Sid's autograph!

Sid Meijer is the man.....  Sid is the ultimate example of "CREATIVE GENIUS."

Publishing company's don't just let go or fire or lay off  their "Creative Geniuses" willy nilly....They don't do that lightly....

So it was a huge SHOCK throughout the entire video game industry when the announcement was made my MICROPROSE that they let Sid Meijer go.......  Sid Meijer went ahead with his co-worker(s) to create "FIRAXIS GAMES."

The first game created by "FIRAXIS GAMES" was an instant classic known as "Alpha Centauri."
At that time it received some of the highest ratings for a video game in video game history by many top game critics.   

MICROPROSE.....slowly over the next year(s) completely eroded....slowly but surely.... it died.


And while YES.. there is no more FIRAXIS GAMES anymore.....  There is still Sid Meijer churning out SIMS games and expansion packs for Electronic Arts.


=======================================================================  [more]



Market Share Gains versus Profitability (FORD)

March 02, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Question:  If you I told you that a certain Mobile Phone Company's had increased their market share by 3% in February versus February of 2009, and furthermore sales of their phones increased by 43% then what would you see as the more important figure?

A) You like the 3% Market Share gain best...

B)  You like the 43% increase in sale of their phones best...

Varchild's Answer?     A.

It is not that I don't like B... It is that A is better than B for understanding how this company is shaping up this year and for speculating on their future.

The first dying signs of any brand name shoe company is to see quarter after quarter of market share loss against other brand name shoes.....and it does not matter what the total sales figures are because market share loss will eventually eat away at the total sales figures.

A company can always SELL MORE even if they are LOSING market share for awhile....... But eventually the loss in market share will reduce the total sales figures so Sales Gains turns into Sales Losses....  Revenue Gains.... become Revenue Losses....

So.. let's for example look at another way regarding this....that will add another dimension to the argument..

I have a stock that is getting massively pummeled by Stock Investors (GAME).

What is the problem with GAME?    Speculation!  It's pure speculation....

GAME is suffering under a 10-15%  perhaps its worse.... projected loss in revenue Q1 2010 mostly because their main MMORPG video game (MIR II) is no longer earning as much revenue as before.

In simple terms.....  Video Gamers may still be playing MIR II.... but they aren't spending $$$$s in the Premium Item Shop.

Varchild did the smart thing after earnings report in downloading MIR II and getting to know the video game up close....  If I just play the game and never spend $$$$$ in the premium shop then GAMEPOT  (The USA version of MIR II) receives ZILCH!!!!! from me....  They earn NOTHING....

This is a unique business methodolgy....versus going Subscriber Based where you HAVE to pay SOMETHING in order to even PLAY the game.

So.. Some are speculating that there is a massive  MARKET SHARE loss going on versus NETEASE's  World of Warcraft and CYOU + Other competitor's online offerings.

So if Varchild is saying he cares so much about Market Share then why is he sitting bleeding to death with his shares of (GAME)......refusing to sell????  Take the loss and run?

Because in this particular case.... I am speculating that Shanda Games over the long haul will eventually figure out that they need to go Subscriber Based in order to produce a more consistent and less volatile revenue stream.

If that was my only reason I'd be the dumbest investor in the world....

But alas.... I also like their latest acquisition in MOCHI MEDIA for the fact that it adds a brand new much more stable... much more consistent revenue stream to their bottom line.   It will not add much initially this year and is not obviously a game changer for their earnings for 2010...

But, this is a sign that GAME is willing to try new ways to diversify revenue streams and try new business models to get back to GROWTH.....rather than experience extreme UPS and DOWNs.

I see (GAME) just as I saw (HANS) Hansen Natural Corp.    It is a company that has grown soooo big sooooo quickly that they have hit a WALL......  And while hitting a WALL should spook virtually 99.99999% of all investors for good reason.... It does not spook me when I strongly believe that (GAME) has a turn-a-round strategy to tear down the WALL they've hit.

So... fine.... MARK IT ZERO.....err....well...  .0001..  I won't give up on GAME for loss of Market Share...

But Varchild will DUMP  (F) Ford  if they lose market share....    I do not agree with Ford's CFO that "Market Share is not important.. Profitability is." 

Wrong... Market Share TRUMPS profitability...    FORD got itself into the mess they got into in the first place because of Market Share!!!   Japanese Auto Company's excelled in increasing market share and eventually out selling their U.S. counterparts into bankruptcy.

DISCLOSURE:  I own 564 shares of F  and 376 shares of GAME  [more]

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