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Varchild2008 (84.10)

April 2009



FLIR Systems . . . for 73 cents a share...June 29th, 2000

April 30, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: FLIR

Imagine.. Imagine how many THOUSANDS of shares you could have scooped up and held from the year 2000 to present in Flir Systems?  [more]




April 29, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: SKX

VARHILD2008  strikes GOLD again!

Skechers earns 18 cents a share in the 1st quarter versus the estimate of a Loss! 

Holy Smokes!  My personal experience going from 1 store to another and another showed inventory draw down hugely bullish.... As price of shoes were cut $10 to $20, shoppers were buying several pairs of Shoes in order to avoid a future return to the retail price....

Varchild saw the BULLISH-ness of a Shoe Company that Women absolutely Loved...

Varchild knew Skechers was the only shoe brand for Women with Arch Support and what do women complain the most about Shoes??? Arch Support..... Women have a harder time than Men to find a comfortable shoe to wear in the Spring/Summer....  Skechers produces Comfort for Women that rivals all other shoe brand companys...  [more]



Get out of Bank of Insolvency while you still can..

April 28, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC

"Bank of America, another lender whose test has highlighted the need for funds, is also in talks with regulators over its capital needs and the possibility of converting the government’s preferred shares into common stock, bankers said."


Boy am I glad to sell my shares at $11.19 and $9.59.  BAC is an absolute walking disaster of a Zombie Bank once it actually has the Federal Government convert Preferred shares to Common and essentially hand President Obama one of the biggest banks in America.

Just as I don't support in my opinion investing in "Government Motors,"  I certainly can't support anyone plucking their hard earned cash into "Bank of Federal Insolvency."

Ticker symbol BAC will soon be GAC.  [more]



Varchild hands Pres. Obama his 100 Days Report Card

April 28, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: JPM , CAT , GM

After listening to Jim Cramer turn his "Hallelujiah" button into a turbo button full of praise and jubilation for Obama's progress in his first 100 days.....which seemed entirely based on share prices and not on the fundamental realities of the corporations behind those share prices....

This is the real truth.... The real Obama Report Card to end all Report Cards.....
Let's do this based off of Jim Cramer's list of stocks he used to track Obama's Progress:

1) CAT:    In the first 100 days, Caterpillar hasn't hired anyone as Obama claimed the C.E.O. would hire right away after the passing of the 700+ $Billion Stimulus bill.  The company is suffering under massive declines in the order for Cranes and infrastructure projects, despite the infrastructure spending in the bill.

The reality is that only about $60 Billion has been spent out of the bill as Federal Bueracracy marches forward at a pace that would make a Sloth jealous.

Sure, Caterpillar's share price went northward.  It went up.  The company is going to survive.  But, there doesn't seem to be much hope for Caterpillar to be on the growth path until 2010 at the earliest.  I have to give Obama a C-....It would be a C+ if Obama actually spoke the truth about the impact of the stimulus bill being almost insignificant to this company's bottom line.

Rating:  C-  [more]



I pulled the trigger on.....(FORD)

April 27, 2009 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Is it ok to buy Ford?  


I bought it after dumping (CRNT).  I had a small gain in CRNT and I figured that's perfectly fine with me.  I understand the Automotive sector better than CRNT since I live in Metro Detroit... I toured the FORD Autoplant.. I toured the FORD museum. 

I even toured Henry Ford Hospital.

So.. come on in while the water is warm.  Yes.. It means trading sideways for months cause stupid morons like me didn't buy it when it was $1.XX  a share.  But.... I see this as an $8.00 a share stock next year...easy...  [more]



Triple Portfolio GRANDSLAM!!! DPS + FLIR + WHR

April 27, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: FLIR , DPS , WHR

I am experiencing today a TRIPLE Portfolio Grandslam in 3 companies that in less than 1 months time I have upgraded my stake in expecting good things.. Boy was I rewarded this morning...

Check out the news headlines fellow MF investors!!   This is what a good day in the market looks like!

1) Dr. Pepper Snapple Group   Shares up over $1.00  off news of a multi-contract deal to provide Dr. Pepper product in McDonald's Restaurants.

Dr. Pepper is already served at Wendys and at SOME  Subway stores.  Now it's available at McDonalds world wide?  OMG! 

2) FLIR Systems -  Extech, a subsidiary of FLIR, reports Record Breaking Earnings despite Military Budget cuts.  Why?  Cause the business (I knew all along) is in the correct business!  This stuff is needed and necessary no matter who is Commander in Chief.

3) Whirlpool  -   Beat earnings estimates with 91 cents a share EPS versus a loss of 18 cents and re-confirmed earnings prediction for 2009 between 3 and 4 bucks eps.  Cost cutting moves that made me BULLISH on Whirlpool have paid off big time.  Free Cash flow stands at $300-400 million.
Who says Whirlpool's cash isn't good?  They are floating in cash!

3 Great American companys producing breath-taking announcements..... Why on EARTH would anyone want to trade in and out of stocks rather than invest in these names long-term as I have?

It pays to be patient folks and to buy on dips:-)  [more]



How to profit off of the Swine Flu

April 27, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: HOGS.DL , FEEDQ , YUM

No.. Not going to bother mentioning the CNBC report about Glaxo Smith Kline and Roche's drug being the drugs for the Swine Flu... Never follow the "herd" into the abyss.

Instead... Buy what you think investors will panic sell and panic short and bail bail bail out on like a Dog chasing it's tail until it passes out on the floor.

So.... Buy the obvious targets for shorts:   BUY PORK!

1.  Tyson Foods

2.  YUM      (they have Pizza Hut and thus have PORK  a.k.a. sausage for pizza toppings)

3.  HOGS     (China's Zhongpin Conglomerate that deals with the Pork Industry)  [more]



Regional Banks have Bottomed... Big Banks have not... My Response..

April 26, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: TCF , FNFG , BMO

ralphmachio writes,
"I could easily see your theory up here play out, except how could the banks have bottomed when real estate hasn't, and retail real estate hasn't fully crashed, because the retail market hasn't crashed completely? "

I said regional banks have bottomed.  And they have due to the widespread consolidation which I pointed out in my blog before I got bullish on TCB.  

I caught the signs of a strong regional bank acquiring a weaker one and how this consolidation would create a bottom.  I see that their are enough regional banks with zero tarp, low debt to capital ratios... I mean... Countless positives.

Are Malls going to continue to crash? Sure.. some will... But we have already seen General Growth Properties head straight into Bankruptcy protection.  They happen to be in the worst of the worst when it comes to commercial real estate.....That being MICHIGAN  /  MIDWEST  States.

I figure we have seen the signs of a bottom in commercial real estate troubles by the coming onslaught of bankruptices with companys like General Growth Properties.

Now.. I am not in favor of saying the entire  banking sector has Jim Cramer is willing to do.  I do not think that makes any lick of sense.

I am just in favor of regionals... and fully believe they have bottomed and growth is ahead for these banks.

I got bullish on Regionals.. and guess what?  Jim Cramer's last T.V. Show on Friday.... He gets bullish on Regionals himself.  I called the regionals as a buy before the great master Jim Cramer.  [more]



How the economic turn-a-round will unfold from now to 2011

April 25, 2009 – Comments (4)

1)  Financials to include Banks, Life Insurance/Car Insurance companys, credit unions, etc.  Bottom out Q1 2009.  That happened....  Lots of caveats but the caveats are specific stock based caveats.  It's a huge sigh of relief when problems in the banks are isolated to specific banks and not the industry as a whole.  [more]



Buy Skechers before the Earnings Report April 29th

April 23, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SKX

Yes... I do not have any shares of Skechers.... My money has been spent buying up Whirlpool and Activision/Blizzard.

However.. Skechers... even though it is run from $5 to almost $9... It is still a screaming buy.

I smell "Rebound Story" in this shoe company as evidenced by my Pumping of the stock on the SKX page.

SKX  should be trading between $10 - 12  a share at sometime this year or 1Q 2010.  It is therefore a stock that should net you a few quick bucks as the shoe company restructures itself through its new partnership deals and South American expansion efforts.

This isn't another CROCS.  This is a growing business versus a shrinking one.  Don't confuse past performance for future performance.  I believe in the management team of Skechers.

P.S.  This stock would have been ginormous had a deal been worked out between Skechers and Heelys.   So far that is not the case... Heelys has rejected past M&A attempts by Skechers.

But.. heck... you have a company with a healthy cash flow to expand their business and 1Q was great progress in terms of bringing down those dreadful inventory levels.  [more]



Top Absurd M&A possibilities continued...

April 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BA , TXT

5.  (ITRI) + (QWR):    Itron and Quanta Power Systems have joined forces in a massive merger deal to become the world's biggest power, electrical technologies,  and smart grid company ever.... Now if Utility companys need technology upgrades, software upgrades, or anything at all.... They will contact QUANTA-TRON!  That is if the Anti-Trust Chief approves.

4. (MCD) + (SBUX):    "Due to the ongoing troubles at Starbucks, we believe merging with McDonalds is the best way thing for our shareholders and our employees..." C.E.O. of Starbucks said in a recent Conference Call with shareholders and analysts.  This news will start the process of combining Starbuck's Cafe stores alongside McDonald's fastfood restaurants across the Globe.

McDonald's menu will no longer have Mc-Cafe's as now all coffee served will be Starbucks Coffee.
At the same time... You get yourself some McNuggets at your local Starbucks.

The Chinese people are extremely excited to see that the first McDonalds & Starbucks restaurant will be opened in Beijing.......That is if the Anti-Trust Chief approves.

3. (DIS) + Time Warner:        You heard it here first at Motley Fool!  Disney Time Warner is now a possibility as both companys have shook hands to seal the acquisition deal and only the Anti-Trust Chief can get in the way of this.  This will help provide Disney with the lions share of the Movie Industry and much needed revenue and income from the current Hollywood BULL Market, to make up for the lack of sales of DVDs of Hanna Montanna and High School Musical 3.

2. (BA) + (TXT):      Just when everyone was about to write the obituary for Textron.... Out comes Boeing with plenty of capital to backup their Takeover of Textron.  This provides Boeing with the Bell Helicopter and Cesna as additions to their overall Aviation offerings to the Military and the Private Sector.

Boeing's C.E.O. had this to say about the declining popularity of Private Jets, "We believe the environmentally safe and fuel efficient technologies we put into our "Dreamliner" Jumbo Jets to huge success will be an absolute game changer to the Private Jet industry.  Introducing fuel efficient private jets will change the image of the entire industry and it will help diversify our business for our shareholders."

In related news... .Rumors circulate that an acquisition of AVAV for their unmanned aerial vehicles could be Boeing's next target.    If the anti-trust chief approves.

And finally.... the #1 M&A possibility of all time!!!

1)  U.S.A.  +  China:     In the State of the Union speech to end all State of the Union speeches, no seriously...this one ends em all folks, President Obama has revealed a stunning agreement made to Merge Peoples Republic of China with America to form the Biggest Nation in population size and land size ever in the history of the World.  Even Ghengis Khan would be jealous to have such control over not 1.....but 2 Hemispheres... The European Union has just announced a Global Emergency as all European Nations are appauled and shocked of this amazing announcement.

President Obama on 60 minutes was interviewed and asked why he made this decision,
"Well, after speaking to China in 2009.. It was obvious to me that America...uh....uh....Is at fault for everything that....uh....previous administration....uh...did wrong.  And...uh....uh....In order to bring a more peaceful world...uh...America has to merge with China to form 1 nation.....uh....So..Uh....I'll be President of the Western Hemisphere of United Chinese States of Earth....Which is our new country's name.  Meanwhile....uh.. The Chinese government still remains in the Eastern hemisphere... Our...uh....Union will be stronger....uh....this way."  [more]



TOP 10 Most Absurd M&A Possibilities

April 21, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: PEP , DPS , KRFT.DL

Now that we have a new Anti-Trust Chief, I thought I'd list what is clearly the TOP 10 Most Absurd M&A Possibilities in the Stock Market

10.  (MA) + (V)         Mastercard is in talks to buy Visa for $80 a share.  Nearly a 50% premium to Visa's current Market price.  The market share has convinced banks to dump Discover and American Express cards for the more favorable benefits in offering MasterVISAs to their customers.

Bank of America is just the latest bank after JP Morgan, PNC Fiancial, and Citigroup to come out in favor of the MasterVISA.

Merger deal still awaits Anti-Trust Chief's approval.  Meanwhile, thousands of envelopes containing applications to acquire a MasterVISA card have been sent to Congress.  [more]



My Portfolio Breaks The Law more than Yours does!

April 21, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , HAL , WHR

(HAL) Haliburton:   Nigerian bribery scandal

(ATVI) Activision/Blizzard:  Accused of stealing proprietary source code of the video game Scratch the Ultimate DJ and other property (DJ Turntable Controller) from Genuis Software after they acquired 7 Studios.  Currently received a temporary restraining order from the Las Angelas Circuit Court. 

See?  My Portfolio breaks the law more than yours does!    It's jam packed full of scandals, felonies, and so on.

(DPS) Dr. Pepper Snapple Group   just last year committed Assault and Battery against Coca Cola and Pepsi's market share....Taking a 2% market share gain.  Their Orange Crush soft drink is quickly outselling FANTA...and may soon become the 2nd best selling Orange Soda drink in America.

There's just no end to the Violations committed here...

(CRNT) Ceragon Networks has the best Backhaul networking solutions (using Microwave technology) that is quickly gaining popularity by North America's largest networking companys.   That's just Cheating!  Cheating is a felony!

(WHR) In recent news concerning Whirlpool, the new Anti-Trust Fed just came out and said she wouldn't have allowed Whirlpool to merge with Maytag.... She declared that activity back in 2006 as an Anti-Trust violation!

Has your Portfolio committed anti-trust violations and gotten away with it???

I mean geeze...  Can my Portfolio be any more criminal?



BAC to TCB switch-a-roo pays off huge! despite dividend slash

April 20, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: TCF , BAC

TCB (as expected but not as severe) slashed their Dividend payment from 25 cents to 5 cents.  I firmly believe this was done for capital reasons as the bank pays back the TARP to the Federal Government.

TCB is TCF Financial.... I sold out of my BAC at $11.19 and then again at $9.59 and sent the cash straight into TCB.  

It's the prudent thing to do when a stock quadruples while another more profitable....less risky...far better bank hasn't even doubled from their lows.

TCB will remain one of the ELITE stocks that will simply do better than the vast majority of the BIG BANKS.   I can only think of a few good big banks left to care about... Goldman Sachs....Morgan Stanley.. ....

I don't care for BAC or C or JP Morgan for the fact that it took a Massive Market Investment Swing to the upside to produce the results for Q1 for those banks.  Banks that have been profitable mainly to only because of investments are banks you should avoid.

Banks embroilled for a lengthy time in TARP harassment = Avoid...

TCB  =  TARP Free after gaining FED approval to return the funds.

Just want to let people know that Investors are switching out of ridiculously overbought banks and throwing cash into ridiculously overlooked ones.  [more]



Pepsi shouts, "ME TOO!" at Dr. Pepper Snapple Group

April 20, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: KO , PEP , DPS

Well Well.... After 1 year's full of Anti-Dr. Pepper Snapple Group naysayers having their way with DPS...Getting to see how correct they are as DPS's share price plummeted for a full year to $12 a share....

My Long term, retirement of which I now carry 426 shares.... That's over an $8 grand stake and I still consider myself to be somewhat NEWBIE-ish to the market.

Turns out that PEPSI wants to buy out their Bottlers... and do a "ME TOO!" in terms of Dr. Pepper Snapple Group owning their bottling companys as well.

So many Hedge Funds like "TRIAN FUNDS" came out against DPS owning their bottlers.
When a press release was issued by TRIAN FUNDS that they were raising their stake in DPS while demanding that the management team dump their bottlers or be forced out by a change in directors....

I got steamed up and incredibly pissed off.    I contacted Dr. Pepper Snapple Group A.S.A.P. and said:

"This is a BEAR market and during a BEAR market there is no way your Bottlers will survive as separate companies.  Please don't agree with TRIAN FUNDS to dump your bottlers when they need you more than ever.  If your bottlers go under after spinning them off then where will you be?"

Seriously...pissed off.... dumping your bottlers is never a good thing when times are tough for the beverage industry.  So...   I guess I can gaffaw...gaffaw... and basque in the glory of knowing that PEPSI agrees with the great "VARCHILD2008" that bottlers are a beverage company's best friend.

BUY....OWN....YOUR BOTTLERS... Don't kick them to the dirt and hope for the best while the bottlers suffer under Bear Market, Volume declines.

Sure... There isn't much revenue in the bottling industry compared to the syrup industry....But their is a fundamental benefit in having complete control over your bottlers.  You can have bottlers wallow in debt until they go under... Or if you control them then you can control costs, perform Lean Six Sigma efforts across the board....and basically keep those bottlers chugging along during even the worst of the BEAR MARKET economy.

Ultimately.... It is far more expensive to have to replace a Bankrupt Bottler.... Than it is to own them.

If Coca-Cola doesn't own their bottlers..... I expect they will jump on board the DPS / PEPSI bandwagon.

IN short:

TRIAN FUNDS          0
VARCHILD2008        1  [more]



ATVI's Prototype + Why CYOU is on my Watch List

April 18, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

PROTOTYPE  is the real deal :-)   This is a franchise waiting to explode.

Check out the video intro and afterwards scroll down to see what people thought of it.
This title will ship for PS3 and XBOX 360....   PROTOTYPE has me extremely excited...

Unlike most investors of Video Game Companys.... I actually play video games.... ever since video games even existed....   (I'm a HUGE  "PONG" fan).

I'm buying Prototype... Heck I'll probably Pre-Order the thing sometime next month.  It comes out in stores June 9th.

I expect it will fly off the shelf because this looks like one of those under the radar masterpieces.

Of course.... There's always the FALLOUT 3  issue where Bethesda Softworks doesn't get as much sales revenue out of it even though FALLOUT 3 was a masterpiece... because Role Playing Games don't do so well... But Prototype isn't exactly a Role Playing Game so much as an Action Game and it releases at a time in which there are no Rock Band or Guitar Hero releases to crowd it out.

Look at CHANGYOU  (CYOU) as a great example of a great startup video game development company.    I don't see anyone pitching UP or DOWN thumb CYOU over any perspective from a Video Gamer Geek.

I know all about startups, fly by night, take off like a rocket day 1 only to collapse a few short years later.    [more]



OMG! Gallup shows Unemployment Bottomed

April 17, 2009 – Comments (12)

They release their economic numbers based on last night's survey of yesterday.  Huh?

What that means is today's after 1:00 numbers reflect April 15th.

Guess what?    Hiring  24%    Letting Go  24%           Yes, it's just 1 lousy...meaningless TICK mark..... But is it so meaningless?  Do we have a trend?  Hiring reaching at a pace to match lay offs?

While Alstry is predicing 30% unemployment... Gallup is showing a bottom in Unemployment. 
If numbers start too look real interesting over the next two weeks in which Hiring / Letting Go keep diverging each-other....Keep touching....    You know that Wall Street is watching Gallup's surveys.... You know they are...

This Market is ready to explode to 9,000 at any semblance of a bottom in unemployment.

So... Just be aware that the future is mirky but Gallup shows for at least 1 Tick Mark..a Bottom in a lagging indicator.  [more]



Stunned if GOOGLE isn't $500 a share by end of this year

April 16, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GOOGL

1)  Newspapers are going bankrupt

2) Those that survive go to the Internet and guess what?  They buy Google Ad Sense for Ad revenue.  Cha Ching!

3) How co-workers do you know bought a Google Phone?  I know several.  I almost bought one but I have to wait till my contract expires.. I'm buying a Google phone sometime THIS YEAR and so many other T-Mobile customers will do so as well as they get closer to contract expiration (typically January 2010).

4) Google Management does not consist of idiots who sit around twiddling thumbs as Ad revenue dwindles.  Those CNBC face heads moaning about Ad revenue and....Google is only an Ad revenue company are completely off the charts senile.

I don't own any shares of GOOGLE..... Cause I don't have the cash to buy such an expensive stock.  But I am telling you... $400 a share.... is an absolute BARGAIN for GOOGLE.

Cause. I easily...unquestioningly see $500 a share by Q4 2009.

So.... Hesitant on Google?  Scared of earnings release?   GOOGLE PHONE is HUGE.....Buy the Shares for the PHONE if you hate the ADs.  [more]



My TOP 10 reasons Motley Fool makes anyone a Professional Investor

April 16, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: F

My TOP 10 reasons Motley Fool makes anyone a Professional Investor:

10:  You can watch other All Star investors panic, pull their hair out, scream "There's blood in the streets," so you don't have to.

9:  It's in color.. Could you imagine Motely Fool being in Black and White Text with a Grey Background.....? .....  and the ticker symbols blink just like old school Internet websites?

8:  Limits its rateable stock listings to Market Cap 100 million or more and Share Price $1.50 or more so you don't waste your money on penny stocks that have nearly tripled in value since the bottom like (AXL, SIRI, BBI, C..).

7:  Saytam Computing (SAY) was recommended here.  What other website analyst displays their dirty laundry on their "Recommendations" sheet for all to see?  That's honesty and that's seeing mistakes and understanding them so you don't make them yourself.

6:  Discovering Motley Fool All Stars are worse stock pickers than you is a boost to your self-esteem and confidence. 

5:  After putting your hard earned money into a Stock, Motley Fool's All Stars can show you all the ways your company sucks and you are the worst investor in the world for bothering to buy shares.

4:  You can track how much your portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 just prior to providing ratings to 2,000 other stocks, thus crowding your listings so you can not even locate your portfolio in your profile anymore.

3:  In 5 star system where 5 stars is the best and 1 star represents every stock in your portfolio, you get to see the investment communities expectations of how well you will do in the long term.

2:  You get to read other peoples reasons for RED THUMBING your investment strategies so you can get intelligent analysis like: 

"I'll probably lose caps points, but I hate the company so I don't care."     or
"You're an idiot if you buy shares of this stock"   or
"Everybody in America including my CAT is unemployed so the whole darn Market deserves my Red Thumb" 

1:  Where else can you read an article from a Motley Fool Author stating why he believes buying FORD Common Stock is not such a bad idea.....just mere weeks prior to the Share Price nearly tripling in value?  [more]



Varchild Dumps his BAC Shares in favor of another bank

April 15, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , TCF

Yes.... Not going long on BAC afterall.  But, this is as I mention often one method I use especially if I have a good sizeable profit.  If I eyeball another stock in the same sector that I simply prefer over the stock that I have (BAC) then guess what?  I'll dump BAC and I will throw some of the cash into that other BANK that I prefer.

I am doing a with-in sector trade to go long on a different bank I feel more comfortable going long on.

Trading out of a TARPed bank in favor of a Bank that has already gotten rid of their TARP.

Am I making a mistake?  Maybe... But seeing that I don't do any business with BAC and I do have a savings account in this other bank that I prefer.... I see no problems with the switch-out.

I think this other bank has room to grow while BAC is going to be stuck at $14 as a ceiling for awhile.

I want to raise the ceiling and to do so I must perform a swap.

Dump BAC
Buy TCB  [more]



Why Natural Gas is priced so darn cheap. . .

April 14, 2009 – Comments (0)


As long as investors don't believe it will happen....the Natural Gas price will remain really, really, low.  But, the day it actually does pass Congress and get signed into law.. Natural Gas prices will soar and rally through the roof like no tomorrow.

Any companys exposed to Natural Gas in my opinion should benefit by passing on the Cap and Trade garbage onto consumers.

The cost to heat your home for an average American family is expected to escalate to over $3,000 in a single year.   The horrid policy of CAP and TRADE is so bad...Wall Streeters are convinced it will never happen.

But, we are talking about the same Administration that thinks Tax Hiking those who create Jobs and Tax Cutting those who don't makes sense.   We are talking about a JIMMY CARTER II era of America's Economy.

I still believe America's economy can rebound INSPITE OF   Pres. Jimmy Carter II.... But, Cap and Trade absolutely puts a wrench in that altogether.  

Factories, Warehouses.... They all need Heat.  Office buildings... Agencies.... They all need heat.
CAP and TRADE will decimate everything it touches.   

CAP and TRADE has me so scared that I am leaving the Stock Market completely if it happens.
Well... Except for any Natural Gas Equities that I have in my Portfolio.  I will keep those.

I fully expect that they day CAP and TRADE happens we will see DOW 5,000 or less in an instant.  [more]



Bank of Hysteria....Anyone care about RSI values anymore?

April 14, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC

Nearly all of the banks have RSI near or above 70% indicating critical status.
Wachovia has now come out and said "hey! Stop!! Market Perform!!  Underperform!!" on several banks except for the outperform rating to Goldman Sachs.

This is ludicrous.

I personally didn't rack up tons of shares of Bank of America at single digit prices for a quick buck.
I got into Bank of America for the long term value of owning a bank stock period.

The financial sector belongs in a portfolio just as much as a good Beverage Company (HANS) (DPS) (KO) (PEP) Wim-Bil Dann.  [more]



Typical Q1 PRESSER on Financial Sector

April 13, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , C , JPM

Indiginous Press:   Affiliate Newspaper of George Soros.

Headline:  Finacial Sector in Deep Peril as Earnings Show Widespread Caution!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

" Goldman Sachs released earnings early today to the shocked the floor at Wall Street.  It was crystal clear the earnings/revenue boost was only due to an extreme short-term bear market rally in March that rescued Goldman's investment portfolio (bringing in $7.1 Billion).  Goldman Sachs is just the 2nd victim after Wells Fargo disappointed everyone by missing the analyst expectations of a loss.

Billionairre Investors are coming out of the woodwork pointing at the profitable results as evidence that the Banking Sector is in mass crisis.  Sure, Wells Fargo claimed a record profit, but that money is just going to be used to pay the massive writedowns the company probably forgot to mention.  I mean who believes these banks anyhow?  No one really knows what's on the balance sheets.  Billionairre Investors point to Mark to Market rules going away in Q1 as some woopdie do way to make the Banks look like their healthy again, when they are not.

The widespread DREAD is quite apparent over the upcoming JP Morgan and Citigroup earnings releases due next.  Will the pain of seeing these banks getting rid of their TARP money never stop?   The boasts and claims of being Profitable are clearly offset by the fact that the profits will be used to get rid of the TARP.

So.... uhm... QUIT BUYING THE BANKS!!  Geeze....  BAC at $11.00????

Aren't us Media Types spreading Negativity loudly enough?  Is anyone reading us anymore?????
(Waahhhhh)"  [more]



FIRE your worthless Financial Advisor...they all stink

April 12, 2009 – Comments (5)

So, I hired a Financial Advisor for the purposes of:

A)  Learning about investment strategies in the equities market such as Options trading.

B)  Learning about other asset classes and best times to buy, hold, sell them.

C)  ROTH IRAs versus Traditional IRAs and what they recommended I invest in to diversify my portfolio.

D)  Other various topics.

Instead... What I get is

A) A recommendation to change my Car Insurance company to "Citizens Insurance."  ????  I never heard of Citizen's insurance and the company I have (AAA) is far more reputable.  I went and did the homework before agreeing to switch and discovered Citizen's to be an absolute RIP OFF!!!

AAA was charging me at such a low, low, amounted to a savings of more than $300 versus Citizen's Car Insurance.

B)  The investment guy said he does investment advice....but I've yet to get any real advice out of him or anyone for that matter even after handing in my list of topics I was eager to learn something about.  [more]



(ATVI) Underperforming the rally...hmm

April 09, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Why is ATVI underperforming today's rally?  Who cares... I bought 30 shares of ATVI today when it was up only 4 pennies.  That tells me Investors are underestimating the extreme BULLISH-ness of  [more]



I'm an All Star.... I got my Game On...

April 09, 2009 – Comments (2)

SHORT the Banks!!!   Earthquake!!!   err wait the Financials are rallying aren't they?  Anyone got any Tissues for Michael Mayo, Meredith Whitney, George "I HATE America's Free Market" Soros?

Funny how "THE RICH" like George Soros can trash America's economy.... Talk down our Banks...Exert absolute defeatism....And represent the same ideology as the President of the United States....and Wall Street doesn't listen to this guy except to laugh....

He says the Banks are screwed?   That means BUY MORE SHARES of your Favorite BANK!!!

I have over 1,000 CAPS points and have crawled into the 80% range.  I believe at 80% you become an official All Star... And I don't just TALK crap.... When I say something is a buy..darn it... It's a buy.  [more]



Consumer Spending Versus Lending

April 07, 2009 – Comments (2)

Do you know when I will agree with George Soros that this is a Bear Market Rally?
That will happen when Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence / Mood  trend does a reversal to the downside in rapid succession from 1 week to the next over the course of 1 month.

But, I predict April through June to be UP spending months.

Check this out:  [more]



Financial Sector Insolvency!!!!!!!!! We are all going to Perish!!!! Run! Panic!! Sell!! Sell!!

April 07, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , JPM , PNC

Oh uhm.. I'm just trying to help out George Soros, Meredith Whitney, Mayonaise, and all the other Doom and Gloomers on the entire Banking Sector.

I mean come on?  Do you really think I want to continue bidding up for these banks?  NO!

For (BAC) My highest price point is more than a full Buck lower from it's market price...

Sure... I want more shares of banking stocks like BAC.... But, I want them priced as low as the Panic Sellers and Shorts can make them for me....

What is going on in the Banking Industry isn't being discussed.  It is all being shoved under the carpet for financial gain.  George Soros has been SHORTING America's Banking Sector for a long time and he doesn't want to quit until America is in financial ruin. (His Brand of Liberalism)

You seriously want to be in the George Soros camp of Financial Banking Ruin?  ROOT ROOT ROOT for RUIN!!!   Being Bearish on the Banks is the Contrarian Position?  Since When?

I'm taking the real contrarian side cause I see the following:

1)  Loser banks like BAC, JPM, PNC, have recently acquired other big banks and thus have a lot of large assets on their books.  If there was any worry over Credit Card problems, Loan problems, commercial loan issues, real estate mortgaging issues, and etc.  Then why aren't we seeing these loser banks sell off their Biggest, Best Assets to stay afloat?  I mean Wachovia is getting shopped around I think... And that's good to see these assets get shopped as well as this helps. 

Whether large assets are coming off the books for fear of future losses or not... It is a win win....

Either BAC panics and sells off Countrywide to someone or sells Meryl Lynch to someone and thus shores up plenty of cash for the future economic troubles.... Or they are doing so well and are so stable they don't need to shop their big assets out.

The Scare Tactics do not hold up to reality no matter how you look at it.

2) Anyone notice the Mass Consolidation in the Regional Banking Sector?  Smaller banks are merging together to form bigger ones and take up market share from the large money center banks.
I apologize in that I can't remember the darned ticker symbols but I've seen em and a quick scan through the regional bank sector won't take you long to find them.  [more]



Thrift Savings Plan and the 2007 - 2009 Bear Market

April 05, 2009 – Comments (5)

*Sigh* Since no one knows about the Almighty "TSP" known as the Thrift Savings Plan in spite of it being mentioned in former President Bush's State of Union Speech regarding Social Security reform....

Here's the explanation....

TSP has far more money in it than any Hedge Fund or Mutual Fund or anything else equivalent.
It beats out any 401K, IRA, or any other Retirement Vehicle from any corporation in the America, or perhaps even the World.

It is just that BIG.   It is humongous....

TSP began in the 1970s with very limited options for investment.  There probably was a (G) Bond Fund and 1 or 2 Stock Market Index Funds (C) Large Caps and (S) Small Caps.

The (I) International Index and the (F) Fixed Income were later introduced.

What is TSP???  It is the GOVERNMENT's Retirement Plan for CSRS and FERS employees.

CSRS and FERS are the only 2 types of retirement vehicles dealing with how Pensions are handled for Government Employees.

Active Duty Military
Reserve Duty Military
Retirees who have yet to drain out their TSPs cashola  (at age 72 you are required to start withdrawing your money)
Civilian Government Employees

Every single Government Employee include State, Teachers, Postal Wokers, you name it....
They all get a chance to participate in the TSP.

Well.. In effect.. Employees are somewhat FORCED to participate in the TSP because the Government does automatically provide you with at least a 5% Matching Donation for each Pay Check to your TSP.

So... Ultimately... We end up with a 401K of sorts for Government Employees that overtime has accumulated TENS of BILLIONS of DOLLARS....

During the Good Times... The (C) Large Caps and (S) Small Caps and (I) International Index Funds get most of the money....  While only the (G) and (F) funds get money during really bad and scary times.

So imagine the October Panic.... Imagine $5.8  Billion Dollars pulled out of the Stock Market in 30 days or less??  Then imagine that happening again in the November Panic.....

Some money got put back into the Market during the December/January Bear Rally....

Then.. When investors felt the Bear Rally was a Head Fake.... $2 Billion Dollars in February gets immediately Yanked out of the Stock Market.

Now.. We have witnessed MARCH.... An Historic Rally of more than 20% from the bottom.

I can't even imagine how much CASH the TSP Government Employees have flooded the Stock Market with and I can't stomache the thought that this could go on for another 2 months.

It is absolutely Shocking to imagine Tens of Billions of Dollars from "Opportunist" investors launching cash straight into the Market.

Ya see..   TSPers are able to swap their money between Index Funds at any time.. About twice a month  (It used to be unlimited transaction swaps could be done each month but those rules were changed in Mid 2008).

So.. While all of these Stock Market "experts" are out there bashing the Rally as a head fake...
Just remember those BILLIONS of DOLLARS sitting in the (G) Fund.. Getting Ready to be dumped back into the Market now that DOW is at 8017 and everyone smells a recovery.

The percentage out of each paycheck that goes into Stocks may also increase because of this rally.. There is just so much CASHOLA from the TSP that America's Stock Market is starting to revolve around it.  [more]



Motley Fool for Dummies: Chapter 1 Definitions

April 05, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR , SKX , HOTT.DL

Motley Fool for Dummies:  Chapter 1 Definitions

1) Outperform   | Out*per*form    |   Motley Fool lingo to mean picking a stock for your portfolio that will outperform the S&P 500.  Not to be confused with expecting to have stocks that ALWAYS outperform the S&P 500.  Although if you know of one please share! 

Oftentimes the best stocks will dip below the S&P 500 in the short term to trade well above the S&P 500 in the long term.  Someone could sneeze on the trading floor causing mass selling panic on your paticular stock before people realize it was just someone sneezing on the trading floor.  [more]



Varchild Reveals his Portfolio..Plus a Best Kept Secret Stock Pick

April 02, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , WHR , DPS

I will not reveal my share counts but the following companys are in my portfolio...

1)  DPS                        *Since July 8th, outperforming the S&P 500 by 19%*

2)  WHR                       *Kenmore, Maytag, Whirlpool, 43 cents a share dividend...bought it at $24!

3)  MSM                      *No not the Main Stream Media....It's MSC Industrials Direct!

4)  ATVI                       *Slow Growth stock I bought hard into when it traded in the single digits.

5)  HAL                        *Slow Growth stock...Lenny Dykstra likes Haliburton

6)  CRNT                      *Ceragon Networks beaten down badly...I think it rebounds

7)  FLIR                        *FLIR System's is a keeper long term as they sell what's always needed

8)  BAC                        *Loads of Bank of America for $5.35 yippe!*

Best Kept Secret Stock Pick:

8) EAG                         *If I become a millionairre within 10 years as a stock investor...It's because of American Defense Systems more than any other stock in my entire portfolio.*

Let's do the Math shall we?

A)  One of their advisors is General Peter Pace.  

B)  ADSI  is Caterpillar's #1 Tier supplier and receives Add-On Armor for their Construction Vehicles for the Army known as "Crew Protection Kits."  No other defense stock I know of has anything like these CPKs (hence Today's Press Release showing that ADSI has become a Sole Source Supplier of CPKs to the Marines).

C)  ADSI announced at the beginning of this year in the teeth of the recession that they will grow 52.5% by end of '09 and based that judgement almost entirely off their contract backlog which was huge in Q4 thanks to the popularity of the CPKs which are savings lives in Iraq and Afghanistan.

D) ADSI now has announced today that they landed their biggest contract for CPK for the Marines, and the 2nd Biggest Contract in their company's history.  $30 million dollar contract of which about $15 million or so is realized this year!   This is on top of the 52.5% growth projection.

E) ADSI sells to Police Officers several things:
         1)  Mobile Target Practice Video Screen Systems  (which already have gotten rave reviews)
         2)  Bullet Proof Glass and Bullet Proof Glass Barriers for SWAT protection.
         3)  Armor and Bulletproof Glass Windows for Armored Police Vehicles.

F)  President Obama's own Limousine uses Bulletproof Windows manufactured by ADSI.

ADSI is a conglomerate corporation.... The Conglomerate sector is typically a slow growth sector, but I think ADSI is perhaps the best kept secret in this entire sector if not the entire stock market.

G) Why is ADSI a penny stock????

DEBT Covenants were really close to being tripped....2 third party entities were holding lots of preferred shares of ADSI and if they were to redeem 100% of those shares, ADSI would be dangerously close to bankruptcy.

I think the whole DEBT Covenant and Bankruptcy scares that surfaced in Q1 are now in the past thanks to the Awesome, Superheroes, known as "The United States Marines."

What's good for the Marines.... Is Good for my Portfolio and my Financial future. 
I am not going to sell off my shares at all no matter how high the stock trades up.

I got 3 penny stocks....and out of those 3....ADSI has the most promise to break out of Penny Stock Status.  [more]



So, Ceragon a Believe the Bulls?

April 01, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: CRNT

Yay! The economy is back.... Stock Market is at least stabalized and things are making sense once again.

And I found my own personal signal that I need to go from "Extremely Bearish" to now "Bullish."

1)  Alstry is now thinking of becoming positive and optimistic about the future as long as restructuring of debt is in the cards for companys hurting like GM...

2) (CRNT) after projecting bad earnings for Q1 of this year also reiterated increased activity in North America.  In just 2 days after their Pre-Earnings Release Conference Call, the company issued a Press Release revealing a $6 million dollar purchase contract for their Microwave Networking Technology.

CERAGON is one of the companys whose share prices got hit hard and before any other company started to feel the recession hit.  So, I predict it will be a rocket ship in due time if this single press release truly spells a "bottom" for the company's sales revenue woahs.

Despite the Share price get slammed hard since Q4 2007 (in which the company had to exercise major share dillution), Motley Fool Caps All Stars have been keeping the stock solidly as a 5 Star Stock.  I think those All Stars are in for a CAPS Points Treat in the next few Quarters.  [more]

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