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Varchild2008 (84.35)

April 2011



Wall Street Shrugged

April 26, 2011 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Varchild2008 owns 632 shares of (F) FORD and is biased in favor of FORD.

So the best 1st Quarter Earnings report for Ford Motor Company since 1998 produces a whopping increase in share price of 12 pennies!

Nevermind the share price is still deeply in the RED year to date....

Nevermind the P/E multiple is still historically tiny compared to where it should be....

Nevermind the market share stands at a solid 16% U.S. and 8.5% elsewhere.

and Nevermind the Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami Parts shortages story has been blown out of porportion.....

Cause (F) Ford Motor Company deserves to sell for no better than $15.66.

Apparently....Standard and Poor's seeing EPS beat in the double digits is grounds for an increase in their Ford Motor Company pricing target by a jaw droppin $1.00.  1 dollar.... 1 lousy dollar...
From $18 to $19.   WOOPIE!!!!    They predict $2.18 now for the full year EPS 2011 and $19.00 is their pricing target???  That's not even CLOSE to a 10X multiple!!!

Since when does a stock producing HUGE earnings growth...beating earning estimates about 7 times out of 8 quarters or so???  Since when is that story NOT DESERVING of at least a 10X multiple??

Since when?????

Wall Street may Shrug........ATLAS may Shrug.....

But, Varchild isn't shrugging.... So I'll be the first to say it.... 

$25.00 and Investment Grade Status by the end of year.... How's that for a pricing target prediction?

Oh and please do explain how (F) still remains at 3 CAPS stars??? just a lousy 3 stars???
endless earnings beats and 3 stars?

Maybe investors should stop giving NETFLIX, AMAZON  a bazillion times earnings multiple and start looking at some of these obviously undervalued stocks in the stock market a little more love?  [more]



NYT Boasts......Varchild Laughs....100K subscribers?

April 21, 2011 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: F , NYT

Alan Mullaly's LINCOLN dealerships were handing New York Times subscriptions last quarter for free of charge to those who bought a Lincoln..... Free of charge through MyFORD Touch.

Hmm.....  So we have the New York Times out there boasting about 100K subscribers and counting for the Paywall service?

More like their FREE-WALL service if Alan Mullaly is handing free subscriptions out to people in desperation to bail out the New York Times company.

Give me a break!!!

Let's see what happens when the FREE OF CHARGE hand-outs go away and the 4 weeks 99cents deal disappears on these 100,000 subscribers.

Some who have received FREE subscriptions were seen in forums..I've seen them I mean....saying they would stick with New York Times and pay the money for the subscription once the Free of Charge service runs out.

Only time will tell just how many will actually stick around when the price either goes from
99 cents .......or the Full Sticker Price NYT is asking for.  [more]



14 Month Update: Valuemoney Challenge

April 20, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: F

What is the "Valuemoney Challenge" and are YOU participating?

Valuemoney claimed back on February 25th, 2010 that FORD motor company's market cap, share price, was being priced waaaay too high.   Valuemoney thus red thumbed the stock.

He red thumbed it thinking that LONG TERM his score would be GREEN and he would earn points off of his red thumb on Ford Motor Company.

I challenged Valuemoney to a contest....  I would NOT SELL 1 SINGLE SHARE of (F) Ford Motor Company for 5 straight years.....  I could accumulate shares....But, I can't sell any shares that I am holding.... can't sell any shares I accumulate.

I currently hold 632 shares as I have recently accumulated from my previous total of 564 shares.

So far....

Valuemoney's Red Thumb is in the RED (not GREEN)  by just over 9 points.  He has not closed his red thumb despite it being in the red for half a year now (give or take).

14 Months Later Varchild2008  is accumulating FORD shares.... Not Selling....

Here are the FORD  negatives  (reasons Varchild2008 could lose this Challenge):

1)  Parts Shortages are causing Ford to shutdown 2 plants....

2)  Ford is now among the worst selling companies of Vehicles in Europe.  Market share is bleeding!

3)  Ford's Market Share on a Year over Year basis this year is Worse in America!!

4)  High OIL prices could eventually errode sales of F150 Trucks, SUVs, and so on which have the largest profit margins for Ford.

Here are the FORD Positives (reasons Valuemoney will pull his RED THUMB and lose)

1)  Market Share is on the rise in America while Government Motors market share is trending lower over the past 3 months.

2)  Ford is still pushing hard for expansion in Asian Markets despite Japan Parts Shortages.

3)  As of end of 2010, cash on hand exceeds overall debt.  The situation after Q1 2011 can only have made the gap between CASH and DEBT even better.

4)  S&P raised their opinion on FORD from Hold to BUY back in March and reiterated that on April 1st 2011.  Despite all of the negatives listed above, S&P hasn't changed their minds on their BUY recommendation.

In Short?  Varchild2008 recent accumulation is only the beginning.  (F) Ford is a long term buy at any price.

P.S.  Varchild2008's opinion is that of a complete moron....So don't listen to him.  Instead just do your own research or consult an actual professional for advice.  Do not confuse blog posts on as opinion coming from professionals when those at least not written by TMF employees are certainly not  necessarily certified professionals.  [more]



Pres. Barack Does Daft Punk!

April 18, 2011 – Comments (0)

President Obama  +  Daft Punk

(Political Love)                                                          (instead of "Digital Love")
Last night I had a dream about you
In this dream I'm making fun of you
Cause it looked like politics you cut my outlook
S&P sure couldn't just wait as long as it took

Don't stop my spending, Debt's a little longer
As we jam my health care bill stronger
There's nothing wrong with just a little little debt
But S&P was pouncing on all my bets

The time was right to push my signing statement threw
You're feeling blue?
You pound your fists too
But suddenly I feel the shining sun
I'll ignore this dream, now your warning is done



Donald Trump could actually win....or could he?

April 11, 2011 – Comments (11)

Just a thought...

I was reading an article that explains how Europe has its own "TEA PARTY" full of anger and frustration over the EU bailouts and austerity and so on.

Read this:

".....Popular anger at bail-outs, austerity and general economic uncertainty has already toppled leaders on the eurozone’s periphery: first in Ireland, then Portugal and arguably Spain...."

In short....If Donald Trump can lower the boom a bit on "Birtherism" and raise his voice on other issues that are far more important right now such as, "Giving money to countries that hate us.... buying up their OIL while we refuse to drill....Raising Taxes while overspending.......Creating new entitlements without any plan for paying for them..."

I mean if Donald Trump can pound President Obama over and over with 1 vitriolic display of hammering the GOP Voter Base anxst.....give voice to our "anger and frustration" on a whole host of issues then there's no telling...

Come "Debate time" Donald Trump would then only need to spell out solutions for the GOP voter base.  I.E.

"You heard me talk about  X...Y...and Z....and how it is all a mess.....  Well, here's my solution...for X.... Here's what we can do for Y......  and This is my plan for Z...."

T.V. Commercials can then give voice to both the heated ANGER  of Donald Trump on Bailouts, Fiscal irresponsibility, lack of job creation, over regulation,  while then summing up in 2 or 3 quick sentences Donald Trump's Solution.

Think about this.....  Sure... Other candidates will strut their stuff as well but trust me.... They will be drowned out very quick by Donald Trump.

It won't be long before GOP Voters will start thinking things like.... "Sure, I like what Mitt Romney has to say here but I heard it all before.... What does Donald Trump have to say?"

Sorta like looking for that *shock* and *awe* factor that so far only "THE DON" seems to know how to provide.

Call some of his statements over the top..... It doesn't really matter if voters can look past the bit of silliness and basically say..... "He Gets Me!"

As for winning the General Election?  President Obama will be running a campaign against himself.
So, it really matters LITTLE who happens to win the GOP primary....

The election will be about  "4 more years"  or....not.....and Donald Trump COULD hoodwink President Obama by simply turning the General Election into a Fact Based, Solutions Based, campaign that makes Obama look foolish....

You see.. Everyone knows what President Obama brings to the table.....  We all know what his SPEECH will be before he gives it....We heard it before...  We know what his policies are....

So most of the voters out there will be paying more attention to whether or not Donald Trump as a Business C.E.O. type who has gone through Bankruptcy has to say and if he says what clearly appear to be far better policies....far better solutions.....and appeal to both LIBERAL and CONSERVATIVE.... then no telling what will happen?  is reporting today a record low for President Obama in the Strongly Approve % among Liberals.....  Liberals are growing more disenchanted with President Obama.

There are a number of things Donald Trump can say that would appeal to Liberals and that is the real...real....real....danger here....  There does seem to be a bit of ANTI-WAR aspect in many of Donald Trump's words...

Will Conservatives care if DONALD TRUMP wants to put an end to the on-going Conflicts?

Conservatives will be caught up in Jobs Jobs Jobs and Fiscal Responsibility that they could live with Donald Trump being somewhat to the LEFT on foreign policy issues.  

No one would like a Ron PAUL though....too far to the left on foreign policy..... 

But..Let's face it.... The real danger is not if Conservatives could latch onto "THE DON" as a serious candidate.... The real danger/issue is how liberal voting base would respond.....if say the DON starts sounding further to the left on Pres. Obama in some aspects?

LIke what if Donald Trump happens to have a solution for closing down Guantanomo Bay that would infact please the Conservative voters at the same time?   impossible???  maybe....but who knows?  [more]



Saving Blockbuster

April 10, 2011 – Comments (2)

How about converting Blockbuster into a:   [more]



Democratic Party's US Budget Plan Revealed!

April 05, 2011 – Comments (0)

And now Ladies and Gents another exclusive!!!!    The Democratic Party is set to reveal their United States Budget Plan next week but I have the SCOOP!!  An Early look at some of the line items in the Democratic Party's Budget Plan:

Chapter 1: Verse 1: Paragraphs 79     U.S. Transportation Department Reform

$999,000,768,868,868,868,999  will be devoted to issuing a free General Motors vehicle of the tax payer's choice per week.  Also, a gigantically large Garage will be delievered to the U.S. taxpayers so they can hold all of these Free Cars that will be bought and delivered.

Chapter 5:  Verse 15:  Paragraph 56    Health Care Reform and Medicare and Medicaid


Will be spent to ensure all drugs, namebrand or offbrand or even illegal, will be bought and paid for by the US Federal Government and hand delivered to the US Taxpayers.

Chapter 20:  Verse 88:  Paragraphs 505     Social Security Reform


Will be spent to ensure that everyone not only has a nice retirement they have a FANTASTICALLY INSANELY AWESOME retirement where everything their heart desires is bought and paid for by the U.S, Government and hand delivered to them for free!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Awesome huh???  This thing is chock full of millions and millions of freebies and give-a-ways and total awesomeness...cream puff...chocolate frosting surprise....  It's Vatican Warlock Awesome!

So.... In short we have to budgets!

GOP Budget:              (blank)
DEM  Budget:        (whatever can be purchased with taxpayer money....will triplicate).

Which one do you support?

Do you support (GM) General Motors....... or..............(F) Ford Motor Company?
Look up the 2011 Jan, Feb, Mar....Market Shares....  Ford's gaining.... GM's fading....

I support you can guess which Budget Plan I support!  [more]



United States Budget Plan Revealed!

April 04, 2011 – Comments (1)

Varchild2010 has an exclusive!   I am going to unveil line by line the GOP's Budget for 2012 which could greatly impact your Stock Portfolio depending on what line items get cut from the budget!

In fact, there are tons of spending the Government does that may have an inadvertant impact to your stocks even though they do not directly do business with the Government.  Like cutting Education Spending could over the long term hurt businesse's trying to locate high-tech savvy labor to hire.

So... Without further ado!!!   Here's the GOP Budget for 2012.


So what do you think?  Surprising huh?  

On the bright side of this 2012 Budget Plan.....The United States Government can just sit on its rear end collecting Revenue and using it to pay off Debt until there is no more debt!

Cause.. well... There's NOTHING in the Budget... No Line Items folks!   It's just 100% Occam's Razor to the entire thing!   No SPENDING on anything!!!  Not one 1 dime, nickel, penny for 1 full year.

Want to balance the budget and convert the America's Debt into a Surplus?  The GOP 2012 plan does just that in a single fiscal year!    Quite impressive!

Also impressive is:

A)  Credit Suisse throwing in the towel on FORD MOTOR Company, upping their opinion on the stock despite their General Motors bias.  I own 564 shares of FORD (F) and plan to hold them.

B)  Consumer Spending seems to be SPIKING waaaaaaay up in the early going in April this month if  numbers are to be believed....  Will APRIL spending TOP  previous months this year?  

C)  Carl Ichan and Dish Network want to acquire Blockbuster for Content reasons.....   Hmm?
Maybe Dish Network wants to create a "BRICK Building Channel?"  Or maybe Carl Ichan just likes the nifty blue Blockbuster T-shirts?  Me Thinks the Bricks and Motor will be replaced with DIGITAL pursuits if the Blockbuster Namesake surives this Auction mess.  [more]

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