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Varchild2008 (85.90)

May 2008

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Shh! QUIET versus LOUD Stocks: Possible 'When to Sell' strategy

May 31, 2008 – Comments (0)

I'm still new so I never give myself any real credit for anything until I at least have a full year of investing under my belt.  I've started investing this year near the beginning of March.  That gives me nearly 4 months with 8 more months to go.

Anyhow...

QUIET versus LOUD stocks and what is better?  How does that make a difference?

STOCK A:    Doesn't issue press releases except for Earnings Reports and occasional events.

STOCK B:    Schedules a bazzilion events issuing press releases on all of them, issues press releases on seemingly insignificant news as well as very significant news.

If STOCK A and STOCK B   go up a huge amount on a spike...

STOCK A goes up because of its earnings report and the C.E.O's outlook on the future of the company's earnings...

STOCK B goes up because of the latest press release it issued....

Which is more genuine?  Which stock has gone up on speculation much more so than the other?

Obviously Stock that skyrockets because of the press release news is heavily speculated, much more so than the other Stock whose share price went up because of an excellent earnings report.

So.... To keep it short...

Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell  off a Spike from a Press Release.

Hold..Hold..Hold...Hold...  off a Spike from an Earnings Report.

That leaves me with SWTX  (Southwall Technologies) that went up a lot off of a press release rather than an earnings report. 

Normally, I would defintely sell off at least 1/4th of my total holdings of SWTX...maybe 1/2 even.
But, I'm not going to this time.

My stupidity of holding my shares when I should sell is smart if my homework on the company is right and I feel I can expect a much better share price if I just wait until 2009 or 2010 even.

But... Boy will I be kicking myself for not hitting the register if something bad happens to this company where it can't sell its FILM technology inspite of the gaining a new distributor in China. :-(

Ultimately...  You have to ask yourself which stocks you'd sell shares off of PRESS RELEASES and which stocks you would sell some shares off of EARNINGS REPORTS.  Stick to that plan and you should do well.

P.S.  As I am typing this.. I just may sell some shares of SWTX on the crazy 22% spike.  [more]

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Southwall Tech reaches 1 of 2 CAPS Milestones today!

May 30, 2008 – Comments (0)

Southwall Technologies still trading on the Chinese Market KBM Distributor of XIR Film technology news skyrocketed on a mass buying blitz today.  Stock jumps over 22% from $1.40 a share to $1.72 a share (Just below Marvel Entertainment Group's gain for 4th place on the day).  SWTX (Southwall Technologies inc.) has now achieved the minimum share price requirement.  If Southwall Technologies can produce a couple fantastic earnings reports then the Market Cap requirement will be reached in quick fashion.

WIth its current share price at $1.72, the company now has over a 42 million market cap.
SWTX now is the biggest percentage gainer in the Fabricated Plastics and Rubber Sector.

However.... I expect a major decline in the stock price as it is massively overbought with an RSI of 84%!

There's no way based on this insane optimism/speculation in the investor community that SWTX can produce an earnings report that would meet/exceed this insane expectation.  However, the news of Southwall Technologies still remains a good one for a long term investment.

I highly recommend SWTX to any investor with a word of caution on its way overbought status.

If SWTX, however, can maintain a $1.50+ share price then it will keep 1 of the CAPS Trading Milestones intact.  [more]

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Southwall Technologies Gains Access to Chinese Market in Energy Saving Windows

May 29, 2008 – Comments (3)

Southwall Technologies (SWTX.OB) just this morning that effective immediately they will be partnered with KBM to distribute XIR, energy saving Glass Windows, throughout the Commercial Window Business of the Chinese Market.

To keep it short....    This news has me stoked!   Going to raise my stake in SWTX dramatically from 320 shares to 400 today.

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Bucyrus International drops 48% in a mass sell-off panic...err wait..

May 28, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: BUCY.DL

Actually BUCY (Bucyrus International) went up $1.86 today.

But Motley Fool placed it as today's rloser having fallen over $62 in 1 day.
 
That's absurd.  I don't know any stocks that would fall almost %50 in 1 single.....err....wait....GENC (Gencor Industrustries) did..

Anyhow...Please fix bug as my rating took a massive hit and BUCY (BUG) is probably the culprit.
  [more]

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Motley Fool Agrees to add Southwall Technologies Ticker Today!

May 27, 2008 – Comments (2)

To my pleasure SWTX (Southwall Tech) was added in response to my request.

Granted, this solar & heat mirror glass company does not meet minimum requirements in either Market Capital or Share Price for CAPS ratings.

However, I bought 320 shares of SWTX last week after learning of Southwall Tech's excellent 1Q earnings report, partnership with a company that sells doors, and top rated products.

Based on all that is transforming with Southwall Tech and there new interest in abandoning there LCD Display Screen product line for an increased focus in their HEAT MIRROR and Solar Power Module product, I have a pure gut feeling it won't be too long before SWTX is rateable.

Only time will tell...  Southwall Tech's future will be greatly dependant on their new partnership which includes borrowing a large loan payment to help finance a new Manufacturing Glass Plant in Wyoming.
 
I plan to give SWTX 18 months.  Historically, SWTX has not grown in size enough to have any real impact to their stock price for many years.  Will these new moves (including a new C.E.O.) begin a path of growth or will SWTX's share price continue to stagnate below $2.50 a share for years to come ala UNISYS Style?  [more]

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My Thoughts on SPF & FLORIDABUILDER & ALSTRY

May 27, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPF

Alstry has been Bashing SPF....
Floridabuilder has praised it, bashed it, then praised it again....

I  VARCHILD2008 have praised SPF all the way through but ended up panicing and selling off all of my shares of stock in SPF.

Question is.. Given today's bombshell report from SPF in which SPF reports receiving over 530 MILLION DOLLARS of investments from various investors, what did Floridabuilder know and when did he know it?

I am not a lawyer...
I am not a judge...
I am not a jury member...

But, Floridabuilder outperformed SPF out of seemingly no where and then just recently (days later) SPF's bombshell occurs and SPF's stock price soars more than 40%!  It could soar further in the coming days/weeks from this single news article.  [more]

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Cutting GENCOR INDUSTRIES to 12 month $20.65 a share value

May 27, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GENC

By extrapolating GENC (Gencor industries) average share price over the last 3 days, and doubling the percentage gain from Jan 1st to present which is about 42%, I am placing a $20.65 12 month share value.

So....Not bad... I don't expect to cut this further unless GENC blows up a 2nd time on me.

I think Gencor Industries won't come out and report any signed contract(s) regarding its 60 million dollars+ worth of cash it plans to use for a future investment(s) until they first get back into NASDAQ listing requirements by electing/appointing a new board member.

Maybe the GENC shareholders will all vote for me as I have a breath taking 201 shares of GENC thus far!  *wow*  [more]

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Shares of NASA skyrocket while Shares of Welfare take a small hit!

May 25, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: BA , TXT , LMT

Welfare trading at $1 trillion a share just dropped over $10,000 a share while shares of NASA previously traded at .50 a share skyrocketed to over 10,000% to $50 a share in late day Memorial Weekend Stock Trading as NASA celebrates the successful landing of their latest Mars Probe.   [more]

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We're Slashing Prices here at Gencor Industry's Memorial Weekend Sale!

May 23, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: GENC

We're slashing Prices here at Gencor Industry's Memorial Weekend Sale!

That's right folks prices being slashed all over, every thing and everywhere in our story.
We know you are hurting at the pump, filling up your SUV with $4as  a gallon superunleaded gas.

So, do yourself a favor and save a buck at GENCOR.
Was $31 a share,  but during our Memorial Weekend Sale it's now just a low...low...$13 a share!

Our P/E was 10.5...We slashed that to a P/E of 3!

Don't shop at AAPL where you'll pay an exhorbidant $177+,
Don't shop at GOOG where you'll pay a hysterical $540+! 

Here GENCOR we understand our customers need for cheap share prices and we have obliged with our tremendous Weekend Memorial Sale!

At $13 a share when it was $31,  You can now buy 3 shares for the price of 1 share!  It's just that cheap folks.  We don't and can't make this stuff up.

Now here's a message from our C.E.O.  E. J. Elliot,  ". . ."

He's speechless folks!  That's how crazy, crazy, crazy low our prices are in this sale.  Our CEO is pale faced in the realization of how much our customers are going to be saving if they only just come shopping here at GENCOR INDUSTRIES!  [more]

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Shocking Hot Stock Pick: Southwall Technologies Inc

May 21, 2008 – Comments (3)

Makers of Glass products for Automotive and energy saving applications, Southwall Technologies is undergoing a transformation.  After posting a good earnings report in the last quarter IN SPITE of exiting out of selling glass for Plasma Displays, Southwall Technologies is looking good once again.

This stock has fallen from a 5 year high of $2.50 a share to now $1.35 a share.  It is clearly a buyout/merger target as this company builds momentum by focusing on their core product and beating earnings estimates.

The company's board of directors has elected a new chairman director:  Andre R. Horn, placing former Chairman Dr. R Eugene Goodson in an advisory role.

Reasons you should care about this company:

1)  It's on the new high list currently trading at $1.35 a share is its 52 week high.

2) Insanely attractive product lineup: http://www.southwall.com/southwall/Home.html;jsessionid=7D2341562C3C52D528CE79AD12223A96

Heat Mirror Thermal and Solar Shading

What is that?

It's energy efficiency during a time of ever increasing Natural Gas Prices.

Is this product the best?  Apparently it is!

"Heat Mirror Insulating Glass Wins ARCHI-TECH Reader's Choice Awards for Energy-Efficiency and Sustainable Design "

"Southwall Q1 Revenue up 21% on Demand for Energy Conservation Products"

"Southwall's Heat Mirror® Helps Massachusetts Home Use 72% Less Energy "

Glass is your PIN ACTION in investing into the SOLAR Sector.

I think a diversfied portfolio should have PIN ACTION despite all 5 stocks being in 5 different sectors.

GLASS  &  SOLAR ENERGY  are 2 different sectors and yet they compliment eachother just fine.  [more]

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URBN: Terrorist Outfitters at Urban Outfitters. Why invest in Terrorism?

May 20, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: URBN

Littlegreenfootballs (a conservative, Supporter of Israel, Opposer of Terrorists and Terrorism and Terrorism Sympathizers) is a blog that has produced numerous stories on a  company called: Urban Outfitters.

Urban Outfitters is located in a nearby Mall where I am situated.  It is startling then to realize that my business trip has put me so close to a store that promotes Terrorism.

http://digg.com/political_opinion/Urban_Outfitters_Glorifies_Terrorism  [more]

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Best Antioxidant Water On Earth!?!?!?

May 20, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

If I gave you a glass and filled it with a liquid and didn't tell you what it was but just suaid, "Drink it!"
and grinned...

Would you drink it?

If I gave you a glass and filled it with a liquid and only told you that it is, "Antioxidant Water" and said, "Drink it!"  and grinned...

Would you drink it?


I don't mind, actually enjoy, flavored water.

I don't mind, actually enjoy, flavored carbonated water.

I don't mind, actually enjoy, vitamin water.

I don't mind, actually enjoy, sparkling water.

I don't mind, actually enjoy, TAP water.  (Drinking well water)

I don't mind, actually enjoy, flouride water (the normal water)

I don't mind, actually enjoy, bottled water.


But... You tell me that the drink in front of my face is:  "Antioxidant Water" from Snapple....
Uhm!?    Pass.... (no wonder the stock price fell)  [more]

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The ROAR of the GENCOR! $23.655 is GENC's true value

May 20, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GENC

Shares of GENCOR fell and fell and plummeted and crashed and died....end of the world for the GENCOR!!!!  from $32 to $15.40 a share.  Crrrrraaaassssshhhhh  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Of course.... Being the *FOOL* that I am.... I didn't sell.

Now it would have been smart for me to sell prior to the earnings report and then buy back in on the Dip.   [more]

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A (TAN)NING SALON Scorches Natural Gas Companies (POT) & (TRA)

May 19, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: TAN , TRA.DL , POT

A (TAN)NING SALON Scorches Natural Gas Companies (POT) & (TRA).

30 Days from today:

TRA has fallen almost $6
POT has fallen almost $7  [more]

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Motley Fool is Broken....You are all making my point (almost)

May 18, 2008 – Comments (7)

My intent was the silliness in that one is not locked into their stock pick times and the inherent abuse of closing out picks early.  I was not interested in what the perfect strategy or formula of abusing Motley Fool was or is....

I don't think Motley Fool Stock Picking is the same as investing with your own money as some have suggested.  There are some examples I will show where it is not.  Ultimately,  it should be:  [more]

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Motley Fool All Star in 3 easy steps. . .

May 16, 2008 – Comments (7)

Step 1:  Close out your bad underperforms
Step 2:  Close out your bad outperforms.
Step 3:  Keep the rest of your stock picks that are doing well.

Congratulations!   You don't have a single clue about what a "Stock Market" even is but you'll get talked about by other all stars who think you are amazingly smart at picking stocks.

For those who blog about not getting their accuracy rating above 50%, What are you waiting for, an invitation?    [more]

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I nailed DPS's Share Price Action!

May 13, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

Proud to say that I absolutely NAILED DPS share price action.

I wrote an article which got a lot of attention to include a mention from Matt Koppenheffer.
If he's reading this article here's the lowdown...

Articles surfaced Day 1 and 2 on DPS that investors of CADBURY who received shares of DPS were selling off their DPS shares....Mostly because they failed to see the value of DPS.

Patience was needed and I told everyone to stay out until MONDAY.  So what happened yesterday and today? 

We have enjoyed some good gains as DPS heads to $26 a share by  close of tomorrow.  After hours trading tonight already has DPS  over $26.  3 days to go up +1$?

I think the pace accelerates as more bargain hunters jump on board.  I am a believer in the $30 price target of DPS either next week or the week after. 
 
I believe in DPS as a long term play so if we see DPS at over $28 a share.... Expect the RSI to be in the overbought area.  DPS at $30 means a sell-off soon.  Don't miss out and become the investor who buys DPS at $30.  Buy in NOW before it hits $28 as analysts are mostly targeting the share price at $32.  Of course a DIVIDEND initiation changes all that!  (if only DPS would do it soon)

P.S.  I extend my GENCOR Dividend pleading today and also include DPS.  We (should) get a small dividend from this company, America's 3rd llargest beverage company.  What gives DPS?!  [more]

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GENCOR Fights Back and when to buy PLM, DPS

May 13, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: PLM , DPS , GENC

Buy PLM:  Thursday  (especially if it's below $4 a share after Wednesday's close)
Buy DPS:  2 days ago but not too late to get in tomorrow.  Watch thn ais undervalued stock hit $28- $30 by next week friday!  DPS even without snacks other than Apple Sauce via MOTTS, is still a quality name brand corporation where your money (long term) is safe.

I project that DPS initiates a dividend by January.  What kind of company other than RC COLA (COTT CORP) wouldn't? 

GENCOR Fights Back (guns ablazing) releasing more details in an angry report railing against the hyper emotional sell off of GENCOR shares.  Look for  $1-2 dollar spike tomorrow. (Yaaaay!  Give em *&^% GENCOR!)

P.S.  I have a horrid habit of confusing GENCOR (GENC) with GENCO Shipping (GNK). 
IMHO  Both companies are worth investing in today.

P.P.S.  I was debating on buying more GENCOR today and instead bought more shares of FEED.
I like the PORK what can I say?  Besides.. I still own more shares of GENCOR than FEED even after my latest purchase.

P.P.P.S.  I gotta get rid of either TRA or CAGC sometime in June.  Why won't these companys share prices reflect their true value for once?

TRA = $46   true value
CAGC = $3.75  true value

Based on projected benefits of TRA's expansion and CAGC's future prospects.

P.P.P.P.S.  Why has CAGC gone up?  Me thinks CAGC spared by earthquake.  [more]

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Nope! I did not sell my GENCOR shares today

May 12, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GENC

And I won't sell them at all this week, this month, or next month.  I am in GENCOR Shares for the 3rd Quarter results.  I believe in this company.

The massive sell off was extremely ridiculous!  The actual current value of GENCOR should be  $24 a share.  Now it trades at $19? ... $19?????  a share?   give me a break!
 
GENCOR is a company that typically does poorly in the 1st quarter.  It instead did real well.  Fantastic even.  So?  The bad 2nd quarter was probably a symptom of having too good a 1st Quarter.

I'm thinking the Winter threw everything out of whack in regards to road repair orders. 
I am shocked and appauled at what has happened with GENCOR over 1 bad quarter.  Apparently, the first 6 months year to year growth was overlooked or just plain besmirched at.

I would have abandoned GENCOR in a heart beat if it weren't for the fact that GENCOR is a diverse corporation in construction and agriculture and is looking ready to expand. 

But....If any upset GENCOR investor reads this.  I emplore you to join with me in writing a letter to GENCOR asking them too initiate a Dividend.  Perhaps the best way to share price recovery after a bad quarter is the dividend.

Look at VMC for a great example!   GENCOR!  You OWE us INVESTORS a DIVIDEND!  [more]

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Yes! Gencor Implodes and Massive Sell Off coming Monday + more DPS stuff

May 09, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: GENC

GENCOR implodes.....  Not panicking....  I'll buy more GENCOR after the massive week long sell-off.
Whatever... I'm pinning my hopes on GENCOR's 3rd Quarter and future, accelerated road work sales.  [more]

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Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) is still a wait! Buy Monday

May 08, 2008 – Comments (0)

looks like the market is going to tank tomorrow.  Forget the 10 cent drop on DPS as I believe a larger drop is in store for DPS by closing bell tomorrow.

Instead of playing DPS by daytrading your purchase price tomorrow..... Wait Monday.  Be patient and let DPS reveal its true initial value to you.

It is unfathomable to imagine DPS at $21 a share, however it is trending down.  The chart looks bad.  So....Maybe place a $21 a share limit buy and see if it does reach that low this month or this year.  No reason to throw your money at a price when DPS is too new to conduct any reasonable analysis...  How do you assess DPS's future outlook other than your personal, biased, emotional, opinion of how good their drinks taste.

What about DPS's management?  Can't be that great when Snapple has not advertised/marketed for a long time and sales have suffered as a result.  17% of America's soft drink market?  That's insane when you see the huge list of top quality beverages.

I don't like to hear a C.E.O. whine about the economy either.

DPS is not as good a stock as I had originally thought.  It isn;t. 

So???   Be patient and buy as low as DPS will go.  I see $21 a share as a good start.
Already the volume drops more than 50% from its 1st day.  That's a bad sign showing how inflated DPS still is!  [more]

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Intrepid Potash's only Downfall . . .

May 07, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: IPI

Intrepid Potash's only downfall is if the Democrat controlled Congress collectively graduates High School and as a result votes in favor of an energy bill that includes drilling for Natural Gas.

Congress is talking about energy bills.  So....  Could IPI see its downfall soon?
 
NOPE!  Democrats don't have the BALLS to do the right thing.  They are stuck on stupid blithering about energy efficiency when we need MORE energy...Not less use of our LESS ENERGY.  [more]

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Don't Buy Dr. Pepper Snapple Group . . . . . . Yet!

May 07, 2008 – Comments (1)

I'm giving DPSw the 5 day Jim Cramer rule.  Don't buy until this stock at least until it gets it's feet wet.  [more]

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I underperformed YHOO and won BIG: Don't bet on Yahoo

May 05, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GOOGL , YHOO

I underperformed YHOO and won BIG.  Up 14.42 pts!  I would not bet on YHOO getting bought by  Microrosoft.Your money is far better in Agriculture, Construction, Commodities, Retail, etc.

Yahoo setting itself up for a new 52 week low right now. 

Put your money in GOOGLE instead and be happy.

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How Diversifying Wins Big in a Down Market

May 02, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SID , AMAT , GENC

Ok.. I suffered over a $2,000 deficit when some of my Tech Stocks plummeted or flat-out imploded on me.  Got rid of every single Tech Stock, Retail Stock, Financial Stock, and the SPF stock in April......Got rid of Java this morning.  [more]

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GENCO = Stock of the day: I Told you so!!

May 02, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GENC

GENCO is Motley Fool's Stock of the day today!!

I found out about GENCO April 26th.  Before Jim Cramer even had his manufacturing week.
Manufacturing is HOT right now and everyone needs to have at least 1 manufacturing stock in their portfolio. 

ETN, PH, BUCY,

Like or don't like Jim Cramer.... Jim is dead on.

Now.. I chose GENCO and JIM did not discuss GENCO.  That doesn't mean GENCO is a bad pick.

GENCO is a lesser known company..... But there's 1 thing to love and that's GENCO's mission statement which is to make sure Stockholders gain a profit!

Go ahead.... Read their mission statement..... Check out their business and products.

GENCO is HOT this year and the best thing about GENCO is it is a long term (sleep well at night) stock.   They make things people actually buy!  [more]

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Worried about FEED yet? Guess what? It's FEED BOOM time again!

May 01, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: FEEDQ

Hey chcek my archive posts.  When I wrote that FEED was going to pull back and allow people a chance to buy in for a profit? I was right.  It pulled back and then went to $20.  [more]

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I guess I'll be a complete moron and invest in Micromem

May 01, 2008 – Comments (0)

I've been eyeballing Micromem (mmtif.ob) for a long time.  When it comes to speculative stocks and the fact that I have already made lots of mistakes, I waited and sat on this thing for 30 days.  The stock price is already priced in.  The Jump already happened.    So why bother?

Well.... Why not?  What do I have to lose if I just toss a few coins at Micromem technology and see if that company still exists next year.....  Why not? Ignoring Penny Stocks is ignoring all of the advice we get from FOOL.com.

This is about Value Investing.    I see value in MRAM technology.  I love that the RFID aspect of it so much that I salivated over this thing for 30 days.

I waited 30 days.  I spent plenty of time researching this stock.  I don't care how much debt it racks up.  I don't care about the financials.  [more]

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I'm thirsty for Dr. Pepper Snapple Group is coming...

May 01, 2008 – Comments (1)

I am getting really really really really really thirsty!

I need some 7-UP!! 
I need some Country Time lemonade!!
Break out the Dr. Pepper 2-liters would'ja?
And if you are out of all that then it's back to the store to buy crates of SNAPPLE!

Because I'm thirsty and my cravings won't be satiated until May 7th when (DPS) arrives.

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