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Varchild2008 (86.41)

May 2009



$12.00 Milestone! ATVI + Prototype Hype!

May 29, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

yay!!!!    ATVI  hits a milestone today... Now Intra-Trades at $12.00 a share.  Only time will tell if this one closes at $12.00.

My thoughts regarding whether ATVI is overbought at $12.00???

That's hard to say... A lot of this has to do with the fact that the Video Game NPD Sales are due next week and there's plenty of reason to expect good things...  Plenty of reason to expect disappointment as well though.

Reasons ATVI is justified at $12.00 a share:

1)  Guitar Hero Metallica sales  COULD have possibly picked up steam in May.

2)  X-men Origins Wolverine  released in the beginning of May and early signs in the conference call were showing strong sales.  Did that strength continue all month long?  I personally bought the video game and I've had and am still having a wonderful time with the game.  It's one of the few Movie Based game titles that has scored good ratings... Especially since the Terminator Salvation game was absolutely HORRIBLE in Critic Review Scores.

3)  Tons of a really really kewl games are coming out in June for ATVI....  Right of the gate is PROTOTYPE!!!  Ships June 9th... Hits retail shelves by June 10th.  This one is waaaaaaay under the radar for most Activision Blizzard investors.... But, this one I have been hyping for quite awhile on my blog.

Why?     1 word..... INFAMOUS!!!!     INFAMOUS!!!     Baby..

Look how well  INFAMOUS  did.... Both in Sales and in Critic's Review of the game.

If Prototype is even 90% the quality of INFAMOUS  (Playstation 3 Game) then we are looking at a tremendous sales boost from out of nowhere.   The fact that Prototype gets between 4-7 in most anticipated Game Title on GAMESPOT's  XBOX360 section is also a plus.  I of course refer to the rankings that are created based on page views.

Prototype just like Infamous is an open world action game.  But, the ability to Shapeshift is what separates Prototype from Infamous.  Other than that... Those 2 games are very much alike....

When it comes to May's  NPD scores..... FOCUS on SALES... of INFAMOUS in order to predict how well PROTOTYPE will sell.

In fact.. That is another interesting way to determine if ATVI is justified at $12.00.  If no one is buying Infamous... Then there's little hope for Prototype. Otherwise... Jump on board the Bandwagon if INFAMOUS's Sales are way up.  [more]




May 28, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: F

2 short months ago Bill Ford whined yet again saying paraphrased, "The government needs to raise the Gasoline Tax! No one is buying our fuel efficient vehicles with gas prises this low!"

That brings me to my premise.  A lot of people are starting to panic out there over oil prices soaring through the roof... a bee line projectory to $80 for a barrel of oil.  I am here to tell everyone that HEY... You can whine about it.. Or you can make sure your portfolio benefits when Oil goes up.

There are hundreds, if not thousands, of ways to benefit on the increase in oil.

Here's one way to benefit that I am sure gets overlooked.....


And why not FORD?  It's now cheaper in price than Tata Tata Motors still and raking in tons of shares at a cheaper price is always good.  Today's news shows perhaps an 8.9% increase in auto sales in May versus April's sales.  This doesn't mean cars are selling better this year over last year (and last year was real bad).

What it means is that FORD trades with OIL...   FORD (F) = OIL STOCK!!!

Those who know that when Oil Prices go up,  Ford Fusions get sold, are buying FORD stock.
Those who don't put the dots together are shorting FORD hoping to get a $3 handle out of it or better.

FORD's share price remains stable for quite awhile now at or above a $5 handle.  Some overly opportunistic, overly optimistic analysts are salivating over expecting a $9 handle.

Understanding FORD and where it is headed..starts with realizing that FORD isn't profitable yet.
That means it ain't no stinking $9 handle anytime soon.

But... at $8.00 a share we are saying to investors that FORD's next Quarter = FLAT.

So....To invest in FORD... or not to invest in FORD.... I think it is more about how you view FORD.

If you look at FORD as 1 of the 3 companys in America whose business is obsolete by foreign competitors....  Then don't buy FORD.

But.. IF you view FORD as simply a Hedge for your Beverage / Retail sector stocks in terms of the fact that FORD = OIL STOCK...  Then it can't hurt to hedge your portfolio!  Especially before the stock touches $6 and change.  [more]



Varchild boosts BUY Rating on Airtran Holdings (AAI) from Buy to Strong Buy

May 26, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: AAI.DL2

Varchild2008... The guy who just moments ago admits he knows NOTHING!!!
The guy who FAILED when he thought HOTT was a short-term buy on earnings...

Is hereby upgrading his rating on AAI  Airtran Holdings from BUY  to STRONG BUY.

Yes.. It's an airline stock!!  OMG!!     But like Jetblue, Airtran Holdings is on a growth and expansion path.... The company is expanding its gates and routes in Milwaukee.  It is the fastest growing airline out there right now.

I recommended Airtran at $6.45 a share.
It is now $5.65.

They beat earnings estimates by a mile and a half last quarter and so this is a play off of that along with a play off the fact that Airtran Holdings has packed their flights... quite a large number of them through much of APRIL and MAY.  2 Months of solid business should mean good things for Q2 earnings.

Earnings Outlook?  Welp.. July is coming and oil prices DIP in July if last year is any indication.  [more]



ADSI's Preferred A Share deal is a good one with 1 Caveat

May 26, 2009 – Comments (5)

Reading through this confusing Preferred A Share situation that was recently negotiated I come to some conclusions and thoughts.

ADSI or American Defense Systems Inc.  is a defense stock that specializes in Crew Protection Kits, Bullet Proof Windows and armored doors, among other products and training programs.

The company has been involved in a sticky situation with West Coast Partners related to converting the preferred shares for Cash along with the payment of dividends.

The Dividends for 2009 per the negotiated agreement have been paid off....
50% of the Shares is to be converted by Dec. 31st, this year.

The interesting thing is that the dividends were paid by giving common stock to the preferred share holders at an exercise price of 60 cents (a bargain price given it's 72 cent price today).

What happens if the entity or entities want to convert their common stock to cash?

I guess that's the bad news for all shareholders... But it's just a short term OMG! factor in a long term story.  The massive shares would get dumped for cash in a steady stream of sell offs and could lower the share price dramatically in the short term.

But... once you get past the sell-off.... assuming they decide to sell the stock for cash...then everything goes back to normal.

Except there's still a 375,000 common stock bag given in converting the 3.75 million $$ worth of Warrants to Common Stock at .01.

So... if that gets sold off for cash at or near the same time the Dividend to Common Stock gets sold then you have an even bigger dilluge of sell-off taking an even longer time to finish.

3-6 months?  6-12 months?   1 investor sold off thousands upon thousands of (GENC) common stock and it took dang near 6-8 months to complete.... resulting in one massively undervalued share price for GENC for a really long time.

Of course all this is pure specualtion and guess making by someone who has already said they know NOTHING about how this confusing stuff works... But just B-Sing around about it on here does help me prepare myself if the share price plummets off huge volume and there's no press release justifying it.  [more]



GALLUP suggests... Retail Stocks (GME) and (HOTT) should be bought

May 26, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GME , HOTT.DL

Tracking Gallup's economic numbers of late and a trend seems to be forming.
Now, we did see about a week and a half trend of jobs numbers improving in April before they collapsed again thanks to Chrysler/GM/etc.  That trend imploded.  Jobs numbers are hideous.

But... a positive trend in Consumer Spending is starting to take shape ever since a week ago.  It shows the first 2-3 weeks of May were a mess.  But since then...The numbers have improved and improved greatly.

There's no telling if this translates to a recovery in spending in JUNE, thus reversing the horrid Q2 and full year estimates coming from GME and HOTT....  The future is hard to predict.

But... how in the heck can I just dump HOTT so fast when the GALLUP numbers are telling me to just buy more shares of HOTT?  or GME?  or any small cap Retail Store for that matter that has done well last year?

I am willing to NOT go against the grain here....and I am willing to actually do the STUPID thing and hold my shares of HOTT a weeeee bit longer than planned.

And I strongly suggest that those Gamestop investors "hang in there" as well.  [more]



Dump Hot Topic or Go Long?

May 25, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: HOTT.DL

So the dillmma is whether I dump the stock before it falls further towards $4, or do I stick with it knowing that eventually the shorts will get squeezed?

Reasons to DUMP  (HOTT):

1)  I didn't get my quick profit so why sit around taking further losses on this?

2)  I have a stock in my portfolio that is doing extremely well fundamentally and the share price is WAY undervaluing the company.... so Why not dump HOTT and throw the cash into that one?

3)  I can't stomache the volatility in the Retail Sector...given my horrid 2008 track record in that sector.

Reasons to keep (HOTT) for the Q4 earnings release:

1)  Merchandise for Transformers and Harry Potter along with Marlyn Manson's CD should bring back shoppers to the their stores once again.

2)  As the share price drops to $4.00 a share.. Isn't that a HUGE buying opportunity?  And given the SMALL...TINY....MINISCULE amount of shares I own in HOTT... I could easily double down on this one when it drops back to a $4 handle.

3) Twilight Sequal is coming and Hot Topic still has the rights to Twilight merchandise. 

I do not view this company like a "Wilson's Leather" that sells Leather Jackets and that's all....So, of course Wilson's Leather goes bust...  Lots of Tiny Leather Companys come and go through the years as that business is extremely tough with way too much competition.

Hot TOPIC is not without their own competition though.  They want to sell Music CDs and thus they are competing with gigantic corporations like Best Buy and FYE in that department.  So Green Day sells 200,000 copies of their Music CD....and HOT TOPIC is sitting their wondering why GREEN DAY's CD isn't getting sold.

It seems to me that Green Day's CD  (IS) getting sold... just not at Hot Topic.

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS  if you find yourself in a similar DILEMMA:

Step 1)  DUMP your entire stake in the company confident in your analysis that the share price has room to fall.

Step 2) Quickly throw that cash into your "better stock" with "better value."

Step 3) If you have sickening regrets for abanonding HOTT (or whatever stock it is you dump), set aside some cash to buy back into that stock with the mental picture of going LONG on the catalysts. 

The end result is you have the stock you dumped for a better value share price and can look LONG TERM to some really good catalysts, while having increased your stake in another company that is already at an extremely good share price value.

So it is a WIN-WIN in the end.   Even if you decide NOT TO exercise Step 3, but to just completly forget your mistake with HOTT....You still come out ahead!

And the moral of the story is that it isn't a big deal to SELL your shares after making a mistake and selling them quickly as possible is preferred versus hemming and hawing for weeks of losses.   [more]



The Power of the Pennies: I'm not losing on today's sell-off

May 21, 2009 – Comments (2)

Only 3 stocks... Just 3 stocks out of a now 11 stock portfolio (the 11th being HOTT, short term trade that didn't work out) are bailing me out of today's massive triple digit sell-off.

That is why I love penny stocks a lot.  If you can find ones that will last a long time during this recession no matter how rough things get, then you have yourself a really interesting thing.

That thing is that Penny Stocks do not CARE where the market is trading.  On days of huge market gains, I may not gain much if any at all in my portfolio.... Cause my penny stocks dropped.

On days the market plummets beyond comprehension, like today, my Penny Stocks don't care and shoot upward.  Sometimes it takes a press release other times they just simply trade independant of the over all market.

I consider Penny Stocks exactly like that... Independant of the overall market.   Completely isolated from whatever anyone else is doing.  So, I put them in their own SECTOR!

Of course... The big deal for me is that one of my Penny Stocks is up close to 20% off extremely positive news in a press release issued today.  With over 5,000 shares riding on this single penny stock, my portfolio is insulating all of today's losses quite well.

So, while I am sitting here throwing up my hands wanting to quit and begin writing angry letters to President Jimmy Carter II, lo and behold.... my PENNY STOCKS show me the light at the end of the tunnel :-)

It's great to be able to find GOOD QUALITY companys that can survive the worst that the economic environment can throw at it...and given the worst....they can actually produce GROWTH.. bottom line and top line growth.

I can only recommend  2 SECTORS right now for "NEW MONEY"  to invest in a Penny Stock given that you have done your homework on the Penny Stock within that Sector:

1)  Health Care /  Biotech

2)  Military Defense Contractors

I totally suggest that you if you are totally going NUTZ over one of your stocks in your portfolio.... Maybe deviate from Large and Small Caps and start looking at those MICRO CAPS today.
Cause, ya never know... There may be something there to keep your mind off the madness or to Trade out of one of your miserable stocks into one that's cheaper and nets you more shares despite the LOSS you take and ultimately can earn you back your money and them some.

I use a TRADE DOWN  SWAP  approach whenever possible....  If I want to trade out of a stock.. I look for a "Cheaper in price" stock to swap into if there is one.   This way I get MORE SHARES and thus MORE ACTION.... If I am right.



President Jimmy Carter II's Growth Problem

May 21, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: GM , AIG , BAC

Not even plastic surgery can make President Barack  (Scratch)  Jimmy Carter II's Growth Problem for 2009 look better.  [more]




May 20, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: HOTT.DL

1)  California asking the FEDs for a bail out

2)  HOT TOPIC proves that consumer spending in Q1 has come to a crashing halt in Q2.
     (Varchild prepared to take a steep loss in this gamble he took to try and trade the stock)

3)  Price of Barrel of Oil along with Dollar's decline showcases the beginning of HYPERINFLATION.  The Price of Gasoline at the pump is going up almost 2 times Barrel price per percentage.

4)  With issue after issue getting past super easy in Congress cause the Republican Party is the same party as the Democratic Party... same ideology....same tax and spenders....same everything.....   We are 1 step closer and closer to CAP AND TRADE!

5)  CAFE Standards that are prepared to strangle the Automotive Sector into oblivion have happened with a peep.... with so much as a chirp of protest from anyone.   No one cares to realize that not even FORD is capable of complying with the requirement.

6) Once California Gets Bailed out... NEW YORK,  NEW JERSEY, MICHIGAN,  OHIO,  RHODE ISLAND, and so on.. and so on....  All will be asking the FEDs for a bail out.

7) Individual Taxpayer Taxes will go up 200% this year on a year over year basis taking into account:

            A:   Tabacco and Cigarrette Taxes   which have gone up over 100% already and Congress wants to increase them some more, is just the icing on the cake to what ELSE will get taxed.
            B:   The Upper Income Tax Hike will have to be given to the Middle Class income level once Congress realizes they aren't getting enough cash as expected.
            C:   U.S.  Dollar will plunge and plunge and while that's bullish for Corporation's exports, it certainly isn't bullish for those who think their Taxes won't go up.  With a weakened dollar...The FEDs will have a harder time reducing its debt load.  Cause Treasury Bonds will get tougher to sell.

8) Everything Alstry has been saying.... Is already beginning happen.   Those (including myself) who have laughed at his estimtes of 50+%  unemployment or worse... whatever they were....  They are going to occur.... A speeding bullet train towards the absolute destruction of Wealth is in effect.

9)  The whole business about how Banks giving back TARP is good news somehow... That gets offset by the fact that the pace of continued BAILOUTS..... Such as the recent announcement coming to give over $7 billion to GMAC.... and AIG needs more cash....   I mean who cares?  The TARP gets returned only to be spent.... and more money is being spent than is being returned, once California gets their bailout folks!

10)  Before the end of 2010 will be the DEATH of the FEDERAL PENSION SYSTEM as we know it.
All companys struggling to pay their pensions.... won't be able to... and the FEDs can't bail out the pensions 100%.... They'll have to do 10 cents on the dollar or significantly less.

11)  DESPITE the absolute CHAOS going on.... There exists no trend or sign that American Voters will vote for Conservative Politicians and Vote Out Liberal Politicians.  In fact... As the bailouts grow in intensity... so will the intense voter support of Liberal Politicians.   Illegal Immigration has a strangle hold over benefits in America as well as the ability to cheat the system and vote... and be part of the CENSUS.... when they shouldn't be allowed to do so.

CHECK.... CHECK MATE....    We are all screwed!

Given all of this.... VARCHILD is not sure.....yet.... if he wants to bail out of his equities and essentially quit.

HOT TOPIC is definitely the icing on the cake to the "We are all screwed" thesis.  [more]



Varchild sticks his neck out: Buy AIRTRAN Holdings (AAI)

May 19, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: AAI.DL2

Besides my own flight to Las Vegas which stopped in Atlanta there and back....and all 4 flights were packed either near to full capacity....  I did spend time in all 3 airports (Detroit, Atlanta, Las Vegas) to observe capacity levels in other flights for Airtran.

What flights?

1) Ft. Wayne
2) Dallas
3) Orlando
4) Ft. Lauderdale
5) Memphis

All of which looked near to full capacity to me.

Putting one's personal experience is meaningless right?  Except Airtran's flights were far more customer gracious than Northwest Airline flights....offering numerous times to customers for snacks and beverages.  (I don't even get a snack on Northwest).

The Satellite Radio plug-in is also quite nice.  You flip down the arm bar and there it is..plug-in your earphones in the bottom.

So...I guess I'm a believer in "Personal Experiences" and I am also using today's report on yahoo finance of the surprising Customer Approval ratings for Airlines in general that has gone up considerably.  This is BULLISH for Airlines in general.

And since I now prefer Airtran over many other choices.... I have to be a BUYER of (AAI).
Especially since it has fallen to a 6 handle.

So you heard it here....



Of course.... I did stick my neck out for GM recently and that's been a disaster... So take my recomendation worth a grain of salt.  [more]



1 Dealership shows interest in Ford Fusion

May 18, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: F

So... I finally got off my rear end.. It wasn't but a short month ago that I wrote somewhere to some one that VARCHILD was going to buy before the end of this year a FORD FUSION.

I already own a FORD Taurus..So..It will be a trade-in.

But anyhow... I took the first step...visited a nearby dealership here in the Great State of Disaster... err I mean... Michigan...  And I was fairly impressed with how the car looked inside and out.  I loved all the features even the ones I couldn't pronounce....

(Question... What the *&^ is a "Rapid Spec" and why does it cost $958 to add that as an option?)

To put it succinctly... The very Ford Fusion I was drooling over was the more expensive "SEL" version.... And just as I had my back turned to look for a salesman to ask some questions.... A guy and woman couple came right to the Car with a Salesman looking to Test Drive the Ford Fusion.

*SIGH*   It was the dealership's ONLY  Ford Fusion (SEL) in the lot.   That was it.... Just 1....

Not sure what that means exactly... does this Dealership seriously just sell 1 Ford Fusion SEL at a time????  Or are these Ford FUSIONS  here at THIS dealership starting to sell off like  Hot Cakes now that Gasoline Prices have creeped up 30 cents from 2 months ago?

Are people thinkin about buyin FORD FUSIONS as evidenced by this couple that shows up mere SECONDS after I show up...looking to buy a FORD FUSION??? or at least Test Drive one...

It is also intriguing that there were at least 3 empty spaces in the Ford Fusion line-up aisle.  The other aisle contained Ford Focus.  They had only 1 FUSION least 1 for brand new Fusions... Comparing the 2 aisles.. the FUSION looked more "bought" than the FOCUS.

When's the last time THAT ever occured?  in 2008, the Small Car KING was the FOCUS.

Ultimately.... 1 Dealership here in Michigan does not mean anything.. you can't correlate a few seconds worth of the Month of MAY and claim that FORD's Cars are finally selling like Hot Cakes this month.. I can't claim that MAY is going to be Hugely BULLISH  for FORD and make Q2 earnings report actually look like a Growth Period for Ford..

But, what I can say is VARCHILD is doing more research on the FORD FUSION and will pay a 2nd visit to this dealership soon, before the end of the year, and BUY BUY BUY himself a nice Ford Fusion with a SONY 12 Speaker Entertainment Center option.  [more]



More Share Price whining at ADSI conference call *sigh*

May 16, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: FLIR

Couple interesting things in the Conference Call that I listenend to just now (I was on vacation so I missed it on May 13th).

I have just 2 things to mention concerning the conference call.

1)  The Share Price probably trades sideways to a slow up trend  (as it has been doing since it bottomed out at 37 cents) for quite awhile....maybe the entire year this year.   How's this a bad thing?

Look.. The Share Price whining does need to stop cause it's not fun listening to it and it completely ignores the fundamentals...  People are too fixated over looking at a quick buck.

I invested in DPS (Dr. Pepper Snapple)  at $25.  Sure.. I did dump the stock for an extremely short period of time based on almost deciding to buy a house.  After I quickly realized my mistake I bought back into DPS.

But... I saw the Share price.. Drop from $26.50  all the way to $11.83  over the course of an entire year.  I saw NO BENEFIT out of DPS... for an entire year..  Yet I stuck with DPS because of the Fundamentals.  

Fundamentals... Fundamentals...  They are more important that staring at the Share Price every single day hoping to make some kinda quick buck.

I don't invest that way... I'm long stocks like ADSI  (EAG).  I long that stock all the way to my retirement and I am 28 years my retirement aint happening any time soon.

Just for clarity... I have accumulated additional shares shortly after the 2008 Q4 earnings call and I probably will accumulate more shares before the end of Q2 2009.  I carry to date 5240 shares.
Which basically means a value of $3,350  give or take. 

I am not really concerned about the share price right now because ADSI has a "West Coast Partners" issue.  They have a Security A series stock problem.   Debt convenants getting tripped.
Once they settle this issue (which I do not believe will happen overnight like the C.E.O. made it seem.. This issue based on reading their Investor Report looks tricky to me).

But whatever....  ADSI is a

And if you want to know why you should set aside Share Price concerns and focus on the light at the end of the tunnel.... look at FLIR Systems.   Their share price was as low as 73 cents!  It took them quite awhile to climb out of Penny Stock Status.

You think ACTIVISION's  C.E.O.  Got the company out penny stock status overnight? ? ?

Share Price concerns SHOULD BE  secondary or thirdary to simply running the business of your company and improving on your company's market share, fundamentals, product lineup, and diversification of customer base.    That's what I jump for joy over listening to these conference calls...  That's where the money is.. It's with knowing that you are holding onto a Stock that represents a Growing, Prospering, and Exciting Company.

The Share Price action will happen... But give it a rest.  *sheesh*  [more]



Varchild DUMPS his GM Outperform rating. . .

May 15, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: GM

*Sigh*  I take leave on a vacation and the GM outperform rating I had seems to have not performed for me.  I dump it though based on the simple fact that GM is headed for bankruptcy protection plus 1 other factor...

That other factor is that whatever OBAMA touches....seems to implode.   President Obama's track record so far is economically atrocious.   This has already become a track record far worse than Jimmy Carter.  [more]



Why did this ALL STAR outperform General Motors (GM)?

May 06, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: GM , SKX , BAC

Simple answer...General Motors won't head into bankruptcy.  My confidence in that is around 85%.
It is based on the following press releases that have come out in recent days since my Outperform pick (which I plan to keep all the way to the June 1st deadline and if I am right...beyond).

1)  Russia, not just Italy's FIAT want's a piece of GM's assets in their OPEL name brand.

2)  New news surfaces that China's Gyaat is interested in GM's SAAB name brand.

3)  Over the radio news, I learned that GM's dealerships want to get together and buy the Pontiac Name Brand.

Put all that together and a successfull (hopefully) meeting full of compromises and concessions with the UAW workers and you got a plan that could nullify the need to file for Bankruptcy.

Any presser that comes out and states, "GM No longer has to file for bankruptcy" will send the stock to at least $5.00 a share.  Not right away though as GM needs to explain away their short-term plans for producing a competitive strategy with their 4 brands... They need to make it clear to the shareholders whether or not they can be profitable by 2011 or at least 2012, along with a coherrant business model spelled out that investors can believe in and rally behind.

I think all that and more will fall into place by the end of this month, or the end of the beginning week of June.  Believe me..A lot of people will be kicking themselves that they did not have the GUTS to buy any shares of GM when and IF (BIG IF) this happens.

Like I said.... I can't say 100% to anything.. My Outperform on GM remains a high risk green thumb.

But look at my track record of outperforming high risk OMG stocks just as they skyrocket (recently):

1)  COT
2) AXL
3) F
4) C
5) BAC     <----Despite stress test spook scares and recapitalization scares I stood behind my outperform.
6) WHR    <---- Despite Motley Fool continuously giving this 2 stars out of 5....
7) SKX     <-----  My call on Skechers was a HUGE call based on real shopping experiences.  [more]

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