AP: Bad economic news spells widespread success for economic recovery
Consumer Spending has dipped in May, which is a positive sign pushing inventory levels of unsold goods to near max to max capacity. This in turn brings in lots of tax money for the Government when inventory taxes have to be reported by the Retail and Warehouses.
An unknown Administration spokesman had this to say, "The increased taxes on inventories due to consumers unable or unwilling to buy goods at shopping malls, retail outlets, and online stores means we should have enough Tax Money to finally save the Spotted Owl from extinction."
In another excellent report, housing prices continue to plummet. They are now down 18.1 percent from before. This exciting news means homes cost less for all of the Consumers that are near broke.
An anonymous Administration official said, "We need to see home prices fall another 95% from where they are now cause the American middleclass worker will have their taxes raised so much that they can't buy a house unless it costs less than an iPhone."
In other news Arnold Schwarzenegger has once again called for the "IOU" to become the World's Currency. [more]
Government Motors Theme Song: From the song "Lollipop":
Ugh Motors, Motors, Motors
*Da Doomed Doomed Doomed* [more]
Alstry predicting Dow 5,000 and tremendous unemployment..total calamity 9/09/09. For those following the doom and gloom.. Varchild is here to tell you that he's officially shifting his: "Strongly Bearish" posture on the market... to...drum roll... "Neutral."
What does Neutral mean? It means I can not make fun of Pres. Obama or praise him on Motley Fool unless I declare myself Bullish or Bearish first. So while I stay Neutral...anything Obama does is well.. *shrug*
But the reason everyone should be NEUTRAL to BULLISH..... Is because the Economy can not possibly fail to recover...
Why? The Market simply has been Too High Up... for Far Too Long! I am personally AWASH in cash due to this market! I've gained far more money than I've lossed and the Dividend Payments I receive have motivated me to spend more of my money this year versus last year...
In fact.... My behavior as it relates to consumer spending goes UP as the Market STAYS UP above Dow 8,000.
Ok so... I sold my FORD stake and threw the cash at (DPS) and (EAG). Beverage + defense stocks a few weeks back.
That was around $5.89. I did this because of reading an article about C.E.O. Mullaly thinking about doing more Share Dillution to clean the balance sheet. Remember that article? That article scared me.... Luckilly though I discovered that Share Dillution doesn't mean a thing!
I quickly threw cash at FORD last week Friday to jump back into the stock.
Many articles are printed and published regularly to get investors scared about Share Dillution.
Last year my biggest mistake of my investment career was dumping (FEED) because of share dillution. Wow! Was I wrong... Share price has recovered Quintuple ever since the SPOOK SCARE over share dillution.
How many other companys have had their stock prices escalate after the short term drop over Share Dillution Spook Scares? How about nearly the entire Financial Sector. Everyone thinking Bank of America should still be a $1.00 or less stock due to dillution is forgetting something...
I've learned that SHARE DILLUTION.....IS.....NOTHING.....TO BE....AFRAID OF!!!
Look at your investment.... If you believe the company will survive the recession and grow stronger and stronger as the days, months, years go on... Then the short term OH MY GOD Share Dillution is meaningless and you shouldn't bother fretting over it.
Really... When it comes to share dillution on my (FORD) stock.... from now on the only thing on my mind is..."How can I participate in the secondary offering?"
P.S. Ford reports strongest month in sales since Sept. 2008! Ford reports a REBOUND!
P.P.S. Why doesn't share dillution matter? Because the future of a strengthening company is a future of SHARE BUYBACKS that reverse the Past's share dillution. Share dillution This YEAR is no big deal when you predict Share Buy Back next year or the year after.
Straight from "The Daily Kos" which I guess means that Liberals can't scream "Bad Source" at me now that I have something from THEIR source is the following:
"The energy bill that passed the House will finally create a set of incentives that will spark a clean energy transformation in our economy. It will spur the development of low carbon sources of energy – everything from wind, solar, and geothermal power to safer nuclear energy and cleaner coal. It will spur new energy savings, like the efficient windows and other materials that reduce heating costs in the winter and cooling costs in the summer. And most importantly, it will make possible the creation of millions of new jobs."
Whose going to pay for these "Energy Efficient Windows?"
Either you will be forced out of your wallet to pay for the windows or you will be forced out of your INCOME TAX to pay for them. Some way...Some how... You'd better be saving up CASH FAST so you can:
A) Buy a Brand New Electric Car whether you like it or not
B) Replace your Windows throughout your house
C) Buy new Appliances cause the one's you have aren't efficient enough!
And who knows what else OBAMA will make you do? Cause once the bill passes, guess what folks? Congress and the President can modify the bill later to make the restrictions, requirements, and boondoggle much more well...restrictive!
If you are not prepared to have to REMODEL your entire life and empty out your life savings to comply with ever escallating environmental restrictions that govern your life under penalty of FINEs.... Then I guess..well...TOUGH! You voted for him. I didn't. I voted for Sarah Palin!
And now for President Obama's Theme Song!
End of passion play, crumbling away
Obama's your source of self-destruction
Veins that pump with fear, sucking taxpayer's clear
Leading on your deaths construction
Vote for me and you will see
More is all you need
Youre dedicated to
How Im killing you
Come crawling faster!!!
Obey your master!!!
Your life burns faster!!!
Obey your master!!!
Master of puppets, Obama's pulling your strings
Twisting your mind and smashing your dreams
Blinded by Obama, you cant see a thing
Just call Obama's name, `cause he'll hear you scream
Just call Obama's name, `cause he'll hear you scream
Needlework the way, never you betray
Life of death becoming clearer
Pain monopoly, ritual misery
Chop your breakfast on a mirror
Master, master, wheres the dreams that Ive been after?
Master, master, Obama promised only lies
Laughter, laughter, all I hear and see is laughter
Laughter, laughter, Obama's laughing at my cries
Hell is worth all that, natural habitat
Just a rhyme without a reason
Neverending maze, drift on numbered days
Now your life is out of season
[fade out with evil laughter].
The Master of Puppets, Obama's pulling your string! [more]
Ok.. This is my blog...I am talking about my own stock in my own portfolio. And I fully expect anyone that reads this TO DO THEIR HOMEWORK. Don't take my thoughts on this blog and assume that I am right...that my thinking is correct here....Cause I am not sure myself.
I have in my portfolio a company known as "Southwall Technologies." (SWTX) This company just reported that the State of California has mandated IR Reflective Heat Windows to be put on all Cars, Mid-size vehicles, Trucks, you name it up to 10,000 lbs in weight.
Therefore.... That is bullish or SWTX "Southwall Technologies" as they are stationed in California and can ship out to Window Manufacturers their XIR Reflective Heat Film which is needed to create these Windows.
So... Southwall Technologies is fully expecting to have to increase capacity big time if they start seeing America's Automakers jump on board NATIONWIDE, not just California wide, to make sure they are in compliance with this mandate.
Well... Now thing get EVEN MORE INSANE with this Cap & Trade bill.
How so? On top of this tremendous news surrounding Southwall Technologies is this Bill that as far as I understand it is going to Mandate that people's homes be Energy Efficient in their Appliances, Windows, Insulation, and everything else necessary to be energy efficient.
Uhm? This also impacts CARS...TRUCKS...Everything across the board!
The XIR Reflective Heat Film that Southwall Technologies has and sells to Window Manufacturers to be in compliance with Energy Star Mandates, State Mandates, and Federal Mandates on Window Energy Efficiency can produce up to 5% less need to run your Air Conditioner in your Car for a 20% savings on Gas usage.
To sum it up.... This CAP and TRADE bill is going to benefit Southwall Technologies BIG TIME.
I don't know how I don't become a Millionairre in some way with my share count in SWTX.
ANY COMPANY IN YOUR PORTFOLIO THAT SELLS ENERGY EFFICIENCY (ANYTHING) IS ABOUT TO BENEFIT BIG TIME:
1) WHR) Whirlpool
3) Any company that sells BIKES....As people trade in their cars for BIKES!
4) Solar, Wind, Alt. Energy companys..... Look at Broadwind today! Don't think the action Broadwind got today had anything to do with CAP and TRADE? B.S. It did. That one skyrocketed.
Next week.... The stock market is going to be jam packed full of people sending Energy Efficient Stocks through the roof and creating an "ENERGY EFFICIENCY BOOM."
Want to be a Millionairre? Stock up on Energy Efficiency Stocks! CAP and TRADE bill had EVERYTHING TO DO with the 40+% Skyrocket in share price out of SWTX today. [more]
Consumer Spending is up along with Savings. Both are BULLISH signs for the economy.
Therefore... Do the smart thing and even if the Countdown till America's Economic Collapse leads to a passage of the bill in the House.... That bill still has to get threw the Senate.... And certainly those who vote in favor of it will have to explain themselves to voters next year.
Varchild Recommends "BUY" into any attempt by this market to plunge upon passage of the bill.
Question is... What should you buy?
1) (F) Ford.
I am bullish on FORD again after dumping that stock.... Why?
Cause the CAP and TRADE bill could be BULLISH for FORD. How?
There may be enough FEAR and PANIC regarding impact to Gas Prices and their Home Heating Bills to convince many car owners to trade in their vehicles for Mid-Size, Small-Sized Hybrids. Lincoln/Mercury is getting HUGE advertisement boost on WJR 760am Detroit, Michigan as well...
All of the factors to propel Ford's sales up seem to be taking shape quite well.
So... without futher ADO.... VARCHILD is jumping back into FORD today.... I hope I'm right:-)
Also... Varchild recommends STRONG BUY rating on whenever General Motors is back as a stock you can invest in. [more]
Now we are just 24 Hours Away from America's Economic Collapse....
So I found it amusing that Consumer Discretionary (for the most part) got bid up like crazy...along with retail.... We are 24 hours from CAP and TAX........A Tax that the Wall Street Journal correctly asserts is America's Largest Tax Increase.... And we are going to have to deal with it in the middle of a recession that has multiple states unable to balance their budget....
Many States face a crisis that may result in issuing IOUs to pay for bills... Or shutting down Government Agencies.... Cops and Firefighters are at risk! Cause politicians love to cut them first.
Rush Limbaugh points out that Cap and Trade could be a done deal in the House by this week Friday. This piece of legislation is one in which VARCHILD has already declared was the 1 thing that could get him to sell off almost all of his Shares in his portfolio, maybe all of them, and it could be 48 hours from now?
America's Economic DEATH KNELL is nigh. Tremendous Terror and Mass Panic will ensue just out of the pure belief this CAP and TRADE is a done deal and will become law.
And to top it off.... America's Health Care is headed for absolute Disaster as every one that goes to the Hospital will have to ask OBAMA for permission to be treated or tested for a disease...
Obama wants to do "Mandates" in which anyone who doesn't sign up to Obama's Health Care will be PUNISHED SEVERELY with a FINE! And once you are on his Health Care System, good luck expecting to get Treated! Especially if you are considered to be a Financial Burdon on society.
We all know the Democrats.... President JIMMY CARTER II wants to TAX the HECK out of Soda Pop.... That means devastation to PEPSI's COKE's and DPS's profits.... Want a Pepsi? A Dr. Pepper? A Coca Cola??? Sure.. That will be $1.39 + 10 cents deposit + $10 Tax to Obama.
$11.49 for 1 2 liter of Coca Cola.... Out of $20.. Here's your change: $8.51. Enjoy!
America to be NUKED by a NUCLEAR Device soon? Sure why not? Let's throw in the prediction that America gets NUKED soon. I don't care by who for my prediction.
President OBAMA does not want to stand up for FREEDOM for the Iranian Innoncent Civilians....
President OBAMA is too cowardly to board the North Korean Vessel seeking to deliver Nuclear Material.... President Obama is about to be sent to an All Out War.... And guess what?
Our COMMANDER in CHIEF is too COWARDLY to give a *&^% about doing his duty as Commander in Chief to protect the Nation from our Enemies...
Heck... He wants to deliver our enemies right to our doorsteps by dumping Terrorists from Guantanomo Bay here.... He also wants to invite Iranian Diplomats to America to celebrate July 4th.
So what will Obama do in the face of AMERICA getting NUKED if it does? TRY THIS: NOTHING!
1) ATVI: Varchild Raises his "HOLD" recommendation to "BUY" but with a caveat that one should get in below $13.00. The reason for the sudden optimism is due to Transformers Video Game looking better than expected with Video Game Critics and User Reviews. I thought this one would TANK and create a horrid "earnings outlook" underneath the high expectations investors have in pushing the stock above $13.00 a share.
Varchild raises price target from $14.00 to $15.00 by January 2010.
2) DPS: Varchild lowers "STRONG BUY" rating to "BUY" based on continued weakness in Snapple/Venom Beverages. This does not mean anything in the scheme of things cause the share price is at a level right now that is undervaluing the company by a Mile and a Half.
Nonetheless, I'd like to see the Q2 earnings and hear from the C.E.O. what he thinks the trends will be for the rest of this year...before I get all Bullish and Crazy again. VENOM got its price cut by 50 cents at local Gas Stations in Detroit Michigan....Varchild strongly believes the big SuperStar advertisement for VENOM is going to be for Naught. People won't abandon their Redbull and Monster for Venom cause Lance Berkman likes it.
3) FLIR: Varchild Keeps "Strong Buy" rating as long as the share price is at or below $23.00.
4) MSM: Varchild lowers "STRONG BUY" rating to "STRONG SELL" opinion which is shared with ZACKS.
Problem with MSM is that it was a Strong Buy at $30 (where I personally got into the Stock) and a Strong Sell at $40.00. Since then it has crashed down big time... 7 pts.
I'd be all Bullish....willing to increase my Stake in MSM.... If it weren't for the horrible, recent, report that the Manufacturing sector of the economy contracted in May. It trades at $34.XX or so.. I fear that's about another 7 pts. too high for this one but I anticipate the Earnings Report in hopes that I am provin wrong!
Is ZACKS and VARCHILD wrong to believe that buying shares of MSM at its current price is a fool's purchase? We shall know July 2nd. As for whether Varchild will unload his MSM stake.... No way, no how.... I love the 20 cents a share dividend. That dividend looks safe...for now. [more]
Some advice here! DO NOT READ the Buy and Hold Article Deluge. I haven't read a single one yet. They ain't worth your time... Cause sitting around thinking about "Buy" and "Hold" strategy and whether it works makes you question whether or not you'll ever bother to give it a try.
You don't buy and hold for 6 months... Don't get the results you want and immediately dive into Short Trading Strategies... Then start whining about the Commission Fees, the Hits only to run into huge Misses....The tortorous battle with your Stock Broker to get PowerTrading status so you can get Less Fees.....The Relentless Extra Research you have to do cause you are playing with far more stocks in far more sectors than you are used to....
Cause it frankly DOESN'T MATTER if *Buy* and *Hold* doesn't work.....or does work....
As long as you remember the simple golden rules of investing you have nothing to worry about!
Rule #1) Diversify your portfolio of 5 or so stocks in at least 3 sectors....
Rule #2) Make the majority Dividend Paying Stocks that boost your Cash Flow during Down Markets and Pullbacks and Dips.
Rule #3) Every Stock should be a Company you are Familiar with, Love, buy their services/products, and can litterally visit their locations on your Days Off from work.
Rule #4) Mix some Small Caps with Large Caps....
You got those 4 rules down.. Then you got nothing to worry about! Nothing!
Cause a FIST FULL of Dividend Cash will generally net you far more savings than putting your money in your Savings Account or in a CD or in a BOND or in a INDEX fund...Or Ad Nauseum.
How more complicated is it than to just sit back collecting 43 or whatever cents a share dividend on your (WHR) stock for example? (I own 56 shares of WHR right now).
How more complicated does investing have to be beyond building share counts in companys whose products you love and buy and know many others around you that love and buy them?
I mean come on???
Buy and hold doesn't work??? That would be like telling everyone that:
A) Activision Blizzard (ATVI) has PEAKED at $13.00 and will never trade higher...Cause Buy and Hold doesn't work...
B) Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS)'s IPO price of $26.50 is the best it will ever manage to do....if you buy and hold for 20 years.
C) Sparton Corp (SPA) will never get itself out of debt and back to profitability no matter what they do cause Buy and Hold doesn't work.
How many thought (COT) would absolutely NEVER get out of Penny Stock Status? I bet tons! Myself included!
How many predicted the American Axle (AXL) share price surge?
How many thought FORD would trade at $6.00+ back when it was at $1.01?
How many here can tell me what the share price of (CAT) Caterpillar will be on October 11th, 2021?
For those that believe BUY and HOLD doesn't work.... Answer me... What will be CAT's share price in October 11th, of 2021? Take a gander!
DISCLOSURE: I own shares of DPS, ATVI, and WHR. [more]
A few trading days ago I came out with my "HOLD" Recommendation on my own invested stock (ATVI) saying that there is no way in God's Green Earth that I'd want to pay $13.00 a share for ATVI without knowing how things are really going in Q2.
Given the weakness in the Video Games sector over last year's results, there's every reason for caution.
And guess what? Jim Cramer on Mad Money Nails it dead on! He is absolutely right about the market as a whole and my emotional outburst in disgust at paying $13.00 a share for ATVI is just 1 example.
Another example is how Fast Money was cautious when APPLE was at or near $145 a share.
A lot of stocks got ahead of themselves.... They shot well past their Fair Value....
Being in the market for at least 1 year ( I have 1 year and 4 months) gives me plenty of experience and knowledge to find where the price SHOULD be trading prior to an Earnings Report.
Regardless of expecting gigantic earnings beats from my Stocks... I will always place a Pricing Ceiling behind each Catalyst....
Let's take a look at ATVI.
Q2: Wolverine + Prototype + Map Pack #2 for Call of Duty + Guitar Hero Expansion Packs are the main headliners for the quarter....well unless you throw in Transformers which I think releases before the end of this month.
Those are the Catalysts we have to look at folks... We all want to DROOOOOL over Diablo III and Starcraft II.... But you have to hold yourself back from getting too GREEDY and TOO OPTIMSTIC and TOO INSANE over sales of a Video Game that may not release this year much less make any difference on earnings THIS Quarter!
Q3: Catalysts??? Ho Hum...Yawn....
Q4: Tony Hawk, Starcraft II, Call of Duty World at War II, Blur, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.
So... You want to see $14.00 a share before we see the earnings for Q2??? All you'll end up achieving is a Stock Price that goes SO HIGH...SO FAST....We basically see it go sideways during ATVI's best Q4 in company history!!
That just makes ZERO sense.... ATVI is not like WHIRLPOOL... or a COSTCO.... or WALMART.... or SKECHERS..... or whatever... It's not a stock that is as good as it's best Video Game Title each and every waking moment.. every single Trading Day....
Rather.. it is Catalyst driven... And because it is catalyst driven.. you have to realize that Catalysts do not get priced in until around 2-3 months behind their release dates.
Starcraft II will start to get priced in 1 month after the Q2 earnings report... in Late August, early September (give or take). Then you have to keep track of the momentum and the Purple Crayon to try and put up a CEILING. Look at the Historic fact that David Gardner said he would pay over $16.00 for the Stock because of Diablo III.
Guess what? $16.00 looks like an excellent Ceiling to use for determining how to build up your ATVI stake in preparation for Starcraft II sales. I.E. Do not pay $16.00 what Gardner did.. Pay $15.00 or so....wait for some press release material to motivate you to be bullish on Starcraft II sales BEFORE pulling the trigger at any price.... Patience is KING! Not BLIND GREED!
Until then... Short Term Traders can feel confident in selling ATVI @ 13.00+ and buying back in at under $12.50 over and over..add Nauseum and VARCHILD certainly won't mind one bit that they do so... Because they should! [more]
You gotta "Swing your Head back"
You gotta "Fall on down on your back"
Come on! Come on! And Doooo.... the Obama Swoon with me!
Dooo... the Obama Swoon
Dooo... the Obama Swoon
Dooo... the Obama Swoon with me
We'll fall to "DOW 7000"
It's a Financial Health Care Depression
So, Come on! Come on! And Doooo the Obama Swoon with me!
Come on and "Swing your Head Back" now!
The FEDs will close your bankrupt store!
Yea Come on! Come on! And Dooo the Obama Swoon!
Global Crisis is now at Hand!
FedEX your Savings to the IRS Man!
40 Banks have collapsed Now!
Has your house forclosed Now?
We'll if it has then I have to say now...
Come On! Come On! Come On! And Doooo the Obama Swoon to DOW 7000! [more]
How bad was the Month of MAY for Michigan? After seeing April leap to 12.9% unemployment you'd probably guess somewhere around 13.3% unemployment or an increase of +.4%. You would be wrong by +.8%.
Michigan's unemployment level has now escalated from a Depression to a level best described now as a "State of Emergency." The Unemployment Rate? Try 14.1% !!!
Take the entire Population of just Southeast Michigan estimated by the following report to be 4.8 million:
and only 3.878 million have a job throughout the ENTIRE state of michigan. So we are talking about WELL MORE than 1 MILLION unemployed.
Everyone hooting and hollering in celebration over the Government Motors opening of a Battery Plant in the GM TECH Center this past weekend is clearly not thinking much....
That plant doesn't hire even 1% of the total job loss in the month MAY alone.
MAY lost 303,000 total jobs Year over Year. Think a Battery Plant is going to hire 303,000 people? No way... No How... GM has not hired yet or at least not revealed as far as I can tell how many jobs will be created from the battery plant.
It isn't supposed to just be a plant for the Chevrolet Volt.... But it is their plant for all of their future hybrid and electric vehicle projects and other areas they can incorporate battery technology to create "Green Jobs." The Plant is 23,000 Square Feet... So I guess a good size number of jobs could be potentially created here.
It is good news.... But in face of what happened in MAY it is not good news enough to reverse the trend of MASS Layoffs that have now sent MICHIGAN into a "State of Emergency."
Just have to *gloat.* Around 3:50p.m. Standard And Poors came out and Downgraded ATVI to a HOLD as well....
So.. They jump on board the Varchild "The Moron's" Bandwagon as I downgraded the thing several hours before they did. I was FIRST!
And unfortunately some people are misinterpreting both MY downgrade of ATVI as well as S&Ps.
If my downgrade was equivalent to "SELL!!!" .... or if S&P's downgrade was equivalent to a 'SELL' or call to 'Short' the stock... Then why is it that neither of us claimed that the Share Price Target of $14.00 should be lowered? Why?
With S&P's report... You have to realize that they are just being Cautious not wanting to see a Stock escalate way out of hand....
I eyeballed the RSI value as the share price jumped to $13.00 intra-day. That RSI was screaming "Overbought." ATVI was due for a pullback... Without some kind of pullback on a stock in a sector that is showing weakness year over year then you have a real momentum problem with the stock.
Lots of stocks get ahead of themselves from time to time.. It's natural... It's normal.... But, I will always call out anytime someone sends one of my stocks to a level.. to a price... that disgusts me.
I don't want to pay $13.00 for ATVI..... Now today... Not after April and May's video games sales slump and the Shelves jam packed full of Unsold Video Games collecting Dust on Best Buy store shelves... There's nothing here that screams BUY at $13.00+. At least not yet!
Sure.. Starcraft and Diablo is coming... Diablo won't be around in 2009.. That's in 2010... That's so far away it really can't be priced into the stock yet...cause it shouldn't be...
What investors should be pricing in is Q3 and Q4 sales expectations.... With the cautious caveat of how sales are doing in recent past months. It's tough to price up a stock to reflect ATVI's insanely awesome lineup when the sector is looking weak..
I bought Prototype... I Pre-Ordered the video game.... I bought XMEN Origins on a Pre-Order...
But.. I don't see all that many people buying these 2 titles.. I also am cautious over the fact we haven't yet gotten the press release on how well or not well the "MAP 2" for Call of Duty World at War is doing...
We got a Press Release the very MONDAY after MAP 1 released telling us about 1 million downloads in a single weekend. It's Tuesday....It's after the closing bell.... Silence from ATVI....
Just hate to see investors get burned thinking to dip into the stock at $13.00.... ATVI gets a Road Bump, Earnings Miss in Q2... Stock Price dips to $11.00.. And the investor that bought at $13.00 dumps his/her shares thinking all is lost...
Better to make sure we don't see $13.00 until ATVI shows us the money? no?
Let's either wait for a better handle on things via a Press Release on that MAP 2 from Call of Duty before thinking $13.00 is fair value.
X-Men Origins what.... They sell just over 52,000 copies? In May? I mean... and No one thinks that's a bad thing? Sorry.. But those numbers don't add up when you got a Blockbuster Film that coincides with the game... I *FEAR* a Drop Off in X-MEN Origins will occur in JUNE..and JULY...and AUGUST....and OMG...maybe even all Christmas Long? That title can't justify a $13.00 price and Starcraft + Diablo ARE NOT OUT YET! [more]
Edited Alice N Chains Lyrics to symbolize the Alstry Zombulation (which has started in full force)
(Heaven and Hell = EPA and FED)
"Nationalize what you wanna Nationalize
Take what you came to Take
Destroy if you wanna Destroy
I dont like what I see
Like the coldest Summer chill
The EPA is beside you... Federal heck is within
Like the coldest Summer chill
The EPA is beside you... Federal heck is within
Like the coldest Summer will
The EPA is beside you... Federal heck is within
And you think you're immune to it still, but Zombulation will find you!"
(Down in a hole = Bury my Portfolio) [more]
ATVI is overbought at the current level. It recently touched a $13 handle and retreated to $12.39.
Even at $12.39 this one's overvalued.
The Video Game Sector is a mess. Everyone's underestimating the economic impact to Young Dudes. Young dudes aren't crowding the video game stores like they were last year.
Last year when I walked into a Mall.... There was no one shopping except for Aeropostale, Hot Topic, and Gamestop. Venture elsewhere and you got "Scary Silence."
Now... Things have gotten spooky at Hot Topic...Frightening at Gamestop...and Bizzarre at even Best Buy.
Granted... I can't testify that my opinion is worth anything. It's not based on statistical fact.
It's based on my personal experiences throughoug the months of MAY & JUNE.
My Recommendation though is a $10.00 PUT option on ATVI for JULY or AUGUST.
I'm not saying everyone needs to dump their shares... My rating is a HOLD for an important reason....That being that a recovery will happen eventually....But right now...where the *&^% are the Summer Jobs for Teens? No Summer Jobs....No Video Game buying!
1) Origins of Wolverine Sales? Disappointing in my opinion especially considering the excellent review ratings + quality of the title.
2) Prototype? I see a fully stocked shelf after fully stocked shelf.... No one is buying....I think this one disappoints.....Inspite of an excellent review from Gamespot (8.5 / 10).
ATVI will be a Q2 earnings MISS in my prediction....opinion...
I'll stomache that miss once I figure out how OPTIONS Work as that still is beyond me and for whatever reason no Investor including Dave and Tom Gardner want to explain how Options work without charging a FEE.
Ok I was wrong and mistaken on all fronts on "FUFU BERRY" or better known by the company who makes it... "Jones....I wish my stock price meant something....Soda."
No one is buying Jones Soda's sodas and for good reason. It's a rip-off in a half....
Why they have to sell their 1 Liters for a $1.25 a bottle... Almost the same price as a $1.49 Coca Cola 2-Liter is beyond me. And Meijer's calls this price a "Price Drop." If that's a price drop... I hate to see what the original price was. [more]
I said *Soon* DOW will plummet 300 points as the investment community realizes COMMUNISUM in AMERICA isn't a good thing afterall. [more]
Ever since Hansen Natural Corp has abandoned their distribution with Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, they had to pay a settlement fee to Dr. Pepper Snapple Group and are facing great trouble with their new distribution deal with Coca Cola Company.
A lot of Motley Fool All Stars have piled on this stock with Underperform ratings dragging the once 4-5 Star Performer to 3 stars.
Well, this All Star doesn't believe in GLOATING over his choice of investing in DPS instead of HANS.....But only if I was running for President of the United States. Since I am not running for President of the United States... Let the Gloating Commence!
Currently HANSEN Natural Corp trades just single digits ahead of (DPS).
What is interesting is despite the already sensational sell-off spree of Hansen's stock and total meltdown of the company's market cap, the P/E Ratio is still just over 25. A 25 multiple for any beverage company is a very, very, high multiple....This tells me this one has further to fall.
But, I am still outperforming Hansen Natural Corp. because a lot of the issues plauging the company's sales of their energy drink has more to do with failure to re-stock inventories as fast as they did under (DPS).
I don't know why Hansen Natural Corp. had to dump (DPS) for North American distribution. Maybe there's something in the contract that forbid them to have multiple distributors? If not, then I don't see why HANS would just do a multiple distrbutor deal in which Coca Cola gets the international distribution of the Energy Drink and DPS keeps their deal intact in North America.
That would have prevented this massive stock price melt-down and earnings melt-down experienced by the company starting in the 1st 2 weeks of MAY.
Alas.... These travails tend to occur when a company gets engaged with a new distributor.
Take Activision Blizzard as another example to prove my point (ATVI). Blizzard Enetertainment has run into some trouble trying to switch out of The9 Limited to NetEase for their WOW in CHINA. The9 Limited originally didn't want to preserve user accounts during the switch as they were upset over contractual issues.
The issues since been resolved in a settlement agreement though.... But it sure looked nasty in the beginning.
That's how I view (HANS)... It's called *Growing Pains* and certainly not a situation in which one should be bailing out of their stake in HANS. [more]
I've been eyeballing the Gallup numbers and they still really don't look good.
CONSUMER SPENDING? Can't be seen as anything but going Sideways.
JOB MARKET? How does 22% Hiring..... 26% laying off.... sound to you? Does that sound wonderful? Look at the the chart itself on hiring.... The market was improving until WAM! a huge spike downward JUNE 4th through 6th.
That's THURS, FRI, and SAT of.....LAST WEEK!! And that's key to why I predict a massive unemployment spike coming out of tomorrow's 8:30a.m. report on New Jobless Claims.
President Jimmy Carter's II's economy is deteriorating.
What Jim Cramer was getting all *Bullish* about is absolutely phony baloney short sighted, day trader, bull malarkey... Totally based on the fact that the trend of economic collapse is slowing.
But... If I have a large city of private industry businesses hiring 1 million people.... And my city hits a recession!!! OMG!!
1st Month: 100,000 people are layed off... (FEB)
2nd Month: 300,000 people layed off... (MAR)
3rd Month: 275,000 people layed off... (APR)
4th Month: 75,000 people layed off (MAY)
Gee? Ever since MARCH my city's economy must be improving !! GREEN SHOOTS!!!!!
Uhm? In a city with a population of 1 million and we are talking about losing nearly HALF the population in job loss after the 2nd month.... The fact that the 3rd and 4th month's job losses look on face value far better than the previous is utterly meaningless! Cause by MAY..... Far Less than 1/2 the population has a job.... By May.. Only 250,000 people have a job.
How exactly is my CITY going to support 1 million people.... when only 1/4th of the population is employed?
Alstry has repeated his DIRE PREDICTION of (September) which I find to be waaaaaaay to pessimistic. But I easily see why he shoots for September.... He's predicting the Market prices in....factors in...the Cold, Winter Months ahead by then... which trend BEARISH during a recessionary, stagnant economy. [more]
Due to OIL prices spiking... I am reducing my Strong Buy rating for AAI (Airtran Holdings) to a Buy.
This simply means that I am still standing by my belief that AAI at a $5 handle is a great investment.... but that Oil prices spiking are never a "good" and "wonderful" thing to happen to a debt laden, struggling airline company.
Normally I'd lower a stock like this to a SELL but I happen to be contrarian to the analysts out there predicting $85 Oil in July. I believe Oil starts pulling back and going down just as it did last year at about 2nd week of July. Therefore, the rally in Oil should be looking a lot weaker in a few weeks. [more]
Gee? My stock's undervalued and hasn't yet reached its UNFAIR price....
But seriously... what the heck is a FAIR price?
Setting aside sector P/E multiple differences where Biotechs tend to get ridiculously overinflated multiples while beverage sector is pretty stable around a 15-16 P/E.
How in the heck do you judge what's fair and what's unfair?
I have stocks that beat earnings estimates far better, far greater than other stocks in my portfolio and they carry far less of a P/E multiple....and an Analyst still comes out and says my stock's price is fair? How's that FAIR that even within the same SECTOR:
(HANS) Hansen Natural Corp gets around a 25+ P/E
(DPS) Never traded that high all last year and so far this year?
What makes FRPT suddenly carry an inflated P/E over the average P/E it held all last year and most of this year all of a sudden?
You can say it's growth or expected growth. But, is it? Hansen Natural Corp comes out with an earnings warning proving that all investors that pumped the P/E sky high basically gave it an UNFAIR price instead of a FAIR one.
But, what exactly is fair? If you were the GOD of the STOCK MARKET.... wouldn't it make sense to say "Enough is enough" no matter what the stock or sector you all get a 15 P/E! You want to increase share price? Get better earnings!
The following are stocks I'd love to see eventually reach their UNFAIR stock prices (I own none of these following stocks):
1)EGY) VAALCO was on a role hitting a high note of 8.00+ a share. Earnings woes brought back down near its 52-week low. Isn't it about time this 5 Star Fool stock get its UNFAIR P/E multiple with Gas prices at or just below $3.00 a gallon? Oil at or near $70 last week?
2)GMGMQ) Or better yet...whatever the heck the GM stock's ticker symbol is when it emerges out of bankruptcy...Sure would be great to see some profits out of GM for a change and a bright future..... I can't say that I'd be disappointed if GM succeeded cause any lift to GM will be a good thing for FORD (which is my stock).
3)HOTT, ANF) Is Aeropostale and "Buckle" the only clothing stores for teens to go to anymore? America's economy can't be reduced to Shopping Malls in which the only place to buy a T-Shirt is Aeropostale or The Buckle. Might just be me but I get tired of TEEN Stores looking like "FADS" and going bust right in the middle of a long bull run. Where's the growth story in these 2 stocks?
4)BBI) Yes, Blockbuster makes my list of stocks I want to see with an UNFAIR P/E multiple. But, only because if every video game, book, music CD, movie DVD, and even a bucket of Popcorn is purchased by Downloading it Online to your Console, Mobile DSI, DVR, TIVO, or whatever....Then how in the heck am I to ever see the SUN anymore? I'd have no reason to step 1 foot outside if everything I wanted can just be "Downloaded." [more]
See? I Told you so!! Smartrend places their "Sell Rating" on (FLIR) a short time ago and then we got this announcement that General Dynamics is buying AXSYS Tech.
And what happens with FLIR??? Share price skyrockets after hours..... Why? It's not getting bought????? They aren't selling themselves to anyone!
It's called speculation... And you partner speculation with the fact that FLIR has been oversold for quite a few weeks now and underperforming the S&P 500 for no reason other than SMARTREND telling the masses to sell their shares...
Ya know what I did today? I increased my stake in FLIR by more than 1/4th my total stake.
I now own 120 Shares of FLIR. And I own them knowing I will make BIG MONEY in the future with earnings reports.... And now there's speculation surrounding FLIR which in the short term will just net me even more money on top of the fact that the company is a great long term investment.
It's simple.... BUY AND HOMEWORK ........works.... "Pattern Recognition Software Schemes" don't! [more]
Just as throwing your money at something I recommend without doing your homework first and without any personal involvement with the company's business is incredibly stupid... So is agreeing with "SMARTREND" and their idiotic pattern recognition system.
I never see SMARTREND aplogize when their Buy recommendation or Sell Recommendation is wrong cause IT IS NEVER WRONG!!!
(AAI) is a perfect example. They recommend you sell Airtran holdings at $6.30 May 14th. The Stock has traded today at $6.36 today. But, instead of acknowledging that they were WRONG!!!!
They instead go with the INTRA-Bottom price of $6.10 and boast and brag and slap themselves on the back with jubilation and congratulation and utter Inconsiderate Hooting and Hollering about how RIGHT they were.
(FLIR) is rallying hard UP today. FLIR Systems fundamentally is a great stock cause they got a BACKLOG to cover their growth story for the full year. And additional contracts they may land or additional orders beyond expectations is just icing on the cake.
So SMARTREND gives it a "BUY" recommendation right??? NO!!!!!!!!! OF COURSE NOT!!!
SMARTREND comes in with their ridiculous "Pattern recognition system" and says FLIR is a sell!
So the share price drops from the price they told everyone to dump the stock to about $1.50 below.
They slap themselves on the back, DAMAGE DONE, and move on to TRASH another stock.
They don't always recommend a sell... they sometimes recommend a BUY. But it is never based on the strength and fundamnetals of the company or the sector or the economic macro situation or consumer spending behavior or tourism traffic or anything!
It's just HOCUS POCUS We Predict SELL! And those who buy into SMARTREND then immediately panic and ditch their shares..... Or they panic and BUY the shares....
Hey.... I'll be the first to say FLIR at $26.00 is WAAAAY overbought. It is... But recommending a SELL around $23 for FLIR is ridiculous!!
If you ignore VARTREND and think VARTREND is full of crap.... Why would you then believe SMARTREND is any better? [more]
In the spirit of the Transformers Movie, here are a few companys that have resurrected themselves seemingly from DEAD to a place where they are at least starting to look viable again.
I'll provide it in a TOP 10 list.
10) (SKX) Skechers: December 2008 everyone had the written off as another CROCS Fad and certainly not a long term investment. Those who disagreed have been and continue to be rewarded for their patience.
9) (COT) COT Corp. This is a beverage company's whose 2 consecutive years of struggle included losing their business with the #1 grocery store in the world, Walmart. Motley Fool investors declared the stock "Junk" and disregarded the company as uninvestable (as evidenced by the star rating it received). COT Corp produced profitability in a huge upside surprise showcasing their long term cost cutting and restructuring moves have paid off in Q1 of this year. The momentum has sent the stock from $1.00 or less to now just over $6.00.
8) (AXL) American Axle: This company was branded as heading to bankruptcy by just about anyone who lives in or near Detroit Michigan. But, the C.E.O. proclaimed profitability will occur sometime in 2nd half of '09 to the disbelief of the entire investment community. Things have since gone down hill with GM's bankruptcy after Chrysler's bankruptcy. Are Large Trucks and SUVs going the way of the DoDo bird due to the rising cost of Gasoline?
I think the move to Mexico along with the full support of the FEDs to resurrect GM and Chrysler will have the added benefit of resurrecting AXL's business. So, you don't have to be a Guns and Roses fan to believe in AXL!
7) CAR) Avis Budget Group recently shocked investors with a good bit of news. $375 million lease agreement along with Air Canada's declaration that Avis was their #1 rental car supplier. This company has seen it's share price obliterated below a buck....Now Avis Budget Group is on a growth path, still struggling though, to attract travelers to its cars. If we are on the beginnings of a economic recovery, then the beginnings of increased Air Travel will occur in 2010 and AVIS will be right there to benefit.
6) F) No Top 10 list should be written without mentioning the used to be $1.01 Ford Motor Company. Motley Fool Investors have gone from "Laughing and cracking jokes at this auto company's expense" to jumping on board the $4.75 secondary price offering. Imagine that! When it was offered Ford's share price was already trading above $6.00 a share making it super easy to see the profit. With GM now officially in bankruptcy and FORD cranking out more F-150s, could we see a comeback to 2006 share price levels?
5) BAC) Bank of America, say what you will about its "Zombie" Status, is simply trading sideways even with the huge capital raising and share dillution. No negative news has brought this bank down after it has resurrected itself to over $11.00 a share. It seems pre-mature to declare victory, but with Countrywide handling mortgages....and a housing bottom taking shape... who knows?
4) HOG) Don't be a Grease Monkey! Too many investors dumped HOG to extremely low share price levels for fear NOT dealing with their motorcycle business..... But with their financial business!
That negativity is in the past and this one keeps going higher... We may see $20.00 before the end of this week. Harley Davidson, like Ford, is still struggling but evidence is clear that their business is at or near bottom and now on the rise. Plus, it's Summer! So, get your ride on!
3) TXT) Textron was declared deceased prematurely by JIM CRAMER and also shoved into the Sell Block. Hmm... How about now? Only the banking side of business has kept this one struggling. Sure, Cesnas and Bell helicopters aren't selling like hot cakes. But, the reality was that the evident fear of investing in TXT due to its financials was palpable. With (BA) keeping an eye on TXT's business for a possible future deal...the TXT is back and the share price is well supported at its current level.
2) SFD) Smithfield Food's share price was a disaster.... Quarter by Quarter they were loss making.
Then to top it off we get *Spook* stories about a "Flu Pandemic" over Swine Flu. Investment community panics over any Stock that sells PORK or Rhymes with PORK, inspite of the fact that Swine Flu doesn't come from Pigs and can't be contracted through food.
So, what happened since? Share price skyrocketed....It did so by more (percentage wise) than any other Pork Stock company in the market. This is significant because this one was hammered the most downward on Day 1 of the WoW Swine Flu Spook Panic. Smithfield Foods reports their earnings this month, June 16th. Will SFD prove itself a STOCKFORMER "Rise of the Fallen" to Wallstreeters? Or will this one drop back down to Pre-Swine Flu levels?
1) AFL) Why is AFLAC mentioned here as #1 STOCKFORMER in the market?
Well, do you realize it wasn't that long ago that their portfolio of European Banks created such a mass panic attack and sell-off on the stock that their share price dropped to a $10 handle! This one was trading over $60 and the company has been listed as the #1 best insurance run business.
Further bad news struck the company when Walmart decided against Aflac's insurance for their employees. But, ultimately, the company is still paying $1.12 a share per year to investors and the community at large as resurrected this one to $36.50! That's a Triple Bagger with a HUGE dividend to boot!
AFLAC is sitting at a small P/E of 12.XX and thus has a lot of room to run. Perhaps the easiest investment opportunity is jumping on board this insurance company and riding it back to $60. [more]
(EAG) ADSI: The West Coast Partners are engaging, as expected, in dumping some if not all of the Common Shares they got as payment for the 2009 Dividends based off of their Security Series A preferred shares of American Defense Systems.
It seems that a lot if not all SMALL CAPS and PENNY STOCKS have an institution or a big gun investor who has or later gains a large stake in a really tiny company that is on a growth path. But, then for whatever reasons unknown or whatever circumstances unknown they go about dumping their stake by the TENS of THOUSANDS...sending the share price straight down into oblivion....
Some of them use their money to build up a big stake in another small cap or Penny Stock.... And the madness just continues...
What does that mean for the every day investor? Well.. There are 2 responses for this type of scenario when it hits one of your companys.
(Well.. first of all.. if you don't know how to spot this just check the SEC Filings off of www.pinksheets.com)
1) Amateur Investor: PANIC!!! Sells off stake...
2) Profesional Smart Experienced Investor: ?? Cha Ching! Buys like crazy the stock at or near the point of which the stock price has been slammed down and the Institution / Investor is finally out of Common Stock Shares to dump.
Ultimately... Share Price activity can be utterly meaningless at times. Normally if you see a Stock Price dive 20+% in a single day.... You'll panic and think your company behind the shares you own has just hit a rough patch and is set to go BUST....
That isn't always the case.... Sometimes it is as simple as "DUMPING" of shares by an investor or institution who just wants to cash them in....perhaps just for the cash... perhaps for Charity.. Or whatever..... It doesn't matter WHY... It just matters that you are right there... ready to strike.. ready to BUY the shares of whatever stock unfairly is getting slammed.
American Defense Systems has earned nearly $40 MILLION worth of defense contracts in Q2 on top of the hundreds of thousands of dollars they earned in Q1. And I'm supposed to believe this is a 60 cent stock? That that is somehow FAIR VALUE? Nope! It sure isn't! But, it's that low cause of Last Week and This Week's DUMP-A-THON.
I have a few stocks that are also taking some nasty hits:
1) (FLIR) FLIR SYSTEMS Underperforming the S&P 500 now by almost 20%. The Share Price does not reflect the earnings growth at all... It reflects a huge decline in earnings.. But, there's no press release and no evidence what-so-ever that the company hit a rough patch this Quarter.
They have enough Backlog to make what's going on with the share price absolutely ridiculous!
FLIR is a *Strong buy* until it isn't.
2) (TCB) TCF Bank: I am guessing here the share price getting slammed cause of GM? Cause of Michigan Unemployment Fears? I really can't figure it out. Standard and Poors still has an $18 price target on this one.
When I get my paycheck I may split it between EAG and FLIR. [more]
(AAI) is Flying HIGH today. Nice lift yesterday as well. Looking good to go back to a $6 handle.
I recommended Airtran Holdings just below $6.50 a share. It dropped like a rock for no reason after I recommended it... So I went and lifted by Buy rating to a Strong Buy....
And today? I get vindicated! Up a cool 9.48%!
I love the airline company... I DON'T LOVE the Airline business. But, it's not about sector.... It's about company... and if you have personal experience with a company.... and nothing but OMG all around...
Ya know.. like my OMG!!! Factor.. When I walked into a Skecher's store???? And I kept seeing people buying Skechers???
Seriously (SKX) = $12.00 a share at least after they report earnings... I took a vacation to Las Vegas and kept seeing more people walking around with Skecher's shopping bags. [more]
Profit Taking is for Wimps!
Dow up 1,000?
S&P up 500?
Nasdaq up 10,000 pts?
And all that in a single day? And you want to profit take?
*BAH!* I say..... And I'll throw in a *BLEH!*
Cause Profit Taking is for Wimps!
Your stock wants to spin-off one of their businesses and after they spin it off.... What do you do?
You sell off all of your shares in the company that was spun off... cause you're scared! You'd rather have the Cash... Cash is king right?
*Bah!* Profit taking is for wimps.
Tons of Cadbury investors bailing out their share stakes in Dr. Pepper Snapple Group rather than enjoying the ride to ever increasing new highs!
SOHO investors dumping ChangYou cause they can't even understand what games the company makes anyways..... *BLEH!* *BLEH! I say*
Cause Profit Taking is for Wimps!
An investor buys FORD (F) at $8.00... Then sees it slip to $7.00.... Panic sets in around $6.00 and the investor Throws away their stake.... Thousands of investors dumping FORD till it crashes to $1.01 last December. And why?? why did they do it? Wimps!
Profit taking is for wimps! FORD is back up to $6.00 and climbing.
Yes folks.... Those who stomache the Valleys...more often than not...enjoy the climb up...Like a Rock Climber enjoys finally making it on top of Mt. Everest after enduring all the pain it took to get there.
So next time you are sweating to the oldies 2 over one of your stocks... Just remember my phrase!
Cause.....Cause... you'll thank me later when you tell yourself...
PROFIT TAKING IS FOR WIMPS! [more]