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Varchild2008 (85.34)

June 2011



How the Motley Fool CAPS System is Broken (Pt. 2)

June 30, 2011 – Comments (5)

This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 5.4%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 94.6%

What's the Caps Rating?

P.S.  The Statistic actually improved greatly today versus yesterday...But the CAPS score remains the same.

5 Stars???           NOPE!

4 Stars????        NOPE!!!

3 Stars????       NOPE!!!

So what is the Caps Score of this Mystery Company?

Well.. Let's take a look at the entire sector first because this stock is in the same sector as the following stocks (and CAPS scores are supposedly based on in part on a curve that involves pitting one stock against another within the same sector of stocks)



This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 7.6%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 92.4%

What's the Caps Rating?             3


This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 12.7%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 87.3%

What's the Caps Rating?       3


This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 11.2%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 87.8%

What's the Caps Rating?    4


This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 9.3%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 90.7%

What's the Caps Rating?   2



This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 7%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 93%

What's the Caps Rating?   3


This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 2%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 98%

What's the Caps Rating?   4


So here we have a Sector of stocks that in which ALL but (COST) have "worse" Underperform / Outperform percentage scores.    (COST) gets a shocking 4 stars and not 5 despite its 1.6% or 2% rounded up All Star underperform percentage.   Exactly how tiny of a percent of underperform one needs for 5 stars is a real mystery here.

Let's look at the worst CAPS SCORE stocks in this sector:

(ERTS)    2 stars

Everyone else is 3 stars or greater.
ERTS carries with it an underperform percentage of  9.3% from All Stars.

Now let's look at the WORST from an All Star Underperform basis (ignoring the Broken CAPS score rating system for now):

(BBY)    12.7%  are underperforming BBY.

Caps Score?    3

Ask yourself this question right now... If I gave you $1,000 and it had to be fully invested in either (ERTS) or (BBY) which of the 2 stocks above would you choose?

BBY cause its 3 CAPS stars vs.  ERTS 2 CAPS stars and BBY has 1.5% Dividend Yield?

ERTS cause only 9.3% of All Stars are red thumbing vs.  12.7% for BBY?
Can you possibly even decide between these 2?  Do you value them the same?

Where's the real CAPS Score RATING System making any sense here at all?

Now scroll to the top.... and you'll see:

5.4%  Underperform  from All Stars

Caps Score Rating?         Try 2!

Mystery Stock was..... (GME)

And It has lost several Underperforming All Stars closing their positions while several Outperforming All Stars have added positions.   Yet there it sits.... At 2 STARS no matter what.
(GME)      [more]



Is Motley Fool Caps Picks Broken?

June 29, 2011 – Comments (7)


Here's how you play!

I provide 2 actual company's All Star Caps Pick underperform/outperform percentages and you guess what the CAPS star rating is.

If you guess wrong...... Then Motley Fool Caps Picks is broken.   Especially if you are waaaay off.

Here's the first company!

This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 11.1%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 88.9%

What's the Caps Rating?


Here's the second company!

This company has All Star Underperform Percentage of 6%
Same Company has All Star Outperform Percentage of 94%

What's the Caps Rating?

GOOD LUCK!!!    You'lllllllllll need it!

P.S.  This whole quiz idea generated after reading sometime ago someone defend the Motley Fool System by not being able to say what the system even is... No one seems to understand how it works.  I know how it works.... It's broken.

You just have to realize some companies even have PRAISE shown under the company description while most company's description is just description.  That's absolute BIAS written in text for all to see....Bias there....bias is everywhere!  [more]



The Social Network Bubble

June 29, 2011 – Comments (3)

I'm going to start up a Social Network and quickly get it an IPO!

Here's the plan:

I'll register the domain   "Varchild2008'"

Then I'll just throw up a blank Web page for the home page.  "/home"

Then I'll register the IPO and rake in the cash!!!!

Because if it is a Social Network then it must be worth  999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

times earnings.  [more]



Wise Words of Ben Bernanke

June 22, 2011 – Comments (3)

The following are wise words of Ben Bernanke, paraphrased for dramatization:

1)  I have no clue why Job Creation isn't happening.

2)  I expect Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, to be worse than I previously expected.
But, it is well less than the FED Comfort Zone which is 97,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999,999% inflation or greater.  As long as someone is still able to purchase a stick, then there is nothing to worry about!

3) The Deficit is a massive crisis that must be dealt with but not now because I still have a massive itching for more BORROW and SPEND and BORROW and SPEND and BORROW and SPEND and BORROW and SPEND and BORROW and SPEND and BORROW and SPEND and PRINT.....PRINT.....DANG YOU...PRINT!!  and BORROW...and SPEND....

And how many Motley Fool Bloggers here have been explaining to us how *WISE* and *AWESOME* Ben Bernanke is????

If anyone should be IMPEACHED on the spot for negligence and irresponsibleness and complete ignorance and stupidty and so on....Ben Bernanke takes the cake.  [more]



REDBOX disappoints on June 21st?

June 20, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

REDBOX Coming Soon June 21st Webpage shows:


and that's it.....

hmm.......hmm....what hmm... Not a problem right?  REDBOX is going to dominate right?

They are set to release all the TOP GAMES for rental right there at the kiosk for you to enjoy same day release?  right?

Except the following video games are set to release June 21st:

1) FEAR 3



And.....And.....REDBOX just gives us CARS 2?

Ahh well....  If you feel extremely disappointed.....shafted....staring with disgust into your local Redbox Kiosk, well then that's why I invested heavily into GAMESTOP!

At least (GME) doesn't disappoint on June 21st cause they will have the games, as always, the very day they release.

And if you are a (CSTR) investor out there I'd really start looking into  [more]



Why REDBOX is good for GAMESTOP

June 16, 2011 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

Ok I am throwing up the Scenarios I just listed on Yahoo Finance for DUKE NUKEM or any video game for that matter you rent at REDBOX only to then return 1 day later and buy the video game at Gamestop.

You will see that there is little reason to fear REDBOX and in fact be absolutely thrilled they are offering rentals!    REDBOX is going to result in lots of positives for Gamstop.

Day 1) Gamer rents at Redbox for $2.00.
Day 30) Gamer keeps game and pays $60 + tax total.

Correct right?

Now what if we throw in some options with Gamestop?

Day 1) Gamer rents at Redbox for $2.00.
Day 2) Gamer returns video game, buys USED Xbox 360 / PS3 version video game for $55 + tax.

Total: $57.00 + tax.
Savings: $3.00.

Day 1) Gamer rents at Redbox for $2.00.
Day 2) Gamer returns video game...goes home......Digitally Downloads the game onto his/her PC computer for $49.99.

Total: $52.00 + tax.
Savings: $8.00.

Day 1) Gamer rents at Redbox for $2.00.
Day 2) Gamer returns video game. Buys PC game, Brand New Physical Version, for $49.99.

Total: $52.00 + tax
Savings: $8.00.

Day 1) Gamer rents at Redbox for $2.00
Day 2) Gamer returns video game, buys BRAND NEW VERSION of video game at Gamestop (XBOX 360/PS3) version for $59.99.

Total: $62.00 + Tax
LOSS: $2.00.

Of course to avoid suffering a $2.00 loss you either buy the brand new Console game at GAMESTOP or any other Retailer (BEST BUY)..... or you hold onto your REDBOX game for 30 days.

But anyhow... To Sum up what we have above:

1 Option with Gamestop results in losing $2.00.
1 Option with Gamestop results in a savings of $3.00.
2 Options with Gamestop result in a savings of $8.00.

Why would anyone rent a REDBOX video game only to then return it to buy the game at a Retail Store?

Duke Nukem Forever  is the type of game that motivates a gamer to NOT want to take *risk.*

You RENT for $2.00.   Game what?  You are out $2.00 instead of $60.00 - Trade Value.

You RENT the game.... You play it and love it and now you want to save as much money as you can in the process of owning it...right?   Holding onto that game for 30 DAYS ends up being among the WORST options for you.

There are 4 Options where you SAVE money returning the game to REDBOX....and buying the game at a GAMESTOP or BEST BUY or etc.

It's that simple....   REDBOX will push sales of video games for Gamestop.
There is little reason for a TIGHT WAD..... to choose the "I will keep game" option with Redbox.  [more]



Duke will be saved by the Box

June 16, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

So news comes out that Duke Nukem stinks!  It's awful!!!  HA HA HA look how funny the critic reviews are that make fun of this PUTRID HORRIBLE DISGUSTING AWFUL video game known as Duke Nukem Forever!!!!!

Hmm....  Sure makes you want to run to your nearest Gamestop to buy Duke Nukem Forever reading 1 onslaught after another..... One person bashing the heck out of the video game after another in some kind of *Contest* to see who can use more vicious language than who?

But.....  Then.... The *Bearish Bearish Bears* who absolutely despise (GME) <----- You know who are continuing to do their best to paint a picture where Gamestop files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy before tomorrow's opening bell.

Their latest tactic is to point to Coinstar / Redbox's  brand newly expanded video game rental business.  Oh my god!!!  There it is!!!!   Death by a Thousand Cuts!!!!    Get out of (GME) before the bankruptcy filing you longs!!!!  Do it !!!!    Do it!!!!!!    People can rent video games $2.00 per day!!!!!!!!

OH                  MY                 GOD!!!!!!!

It's over.......

But wait.....

What if Duke Nukem Forever is actaully a very enjoyable, funny, ridiculous video game you would love to play???

How would you know that this video game is that???  How would you know this game is the right amount of FUN that you are willing to fork over CASH to play??


Wouldn't it be great to just pay $2.00  and find out if the Video Game Stinks to High Heaven or if it is actually a very very fun and amusing video game???

So... Go ahead... Go to your nearest Walgreens or Grocery Store that has a Redbox Kiosk and rent the video game...  See if you end up liking the game...

Worst thing that can happen is you don't like the video game but then you are only out $2.00 if you do not like it.

You *risk*  $2.00 to see if you like the game..... That's a small risk compared to buying the game, and then getting *PISSED* over how much it stinks....and then taking out your anger against GAMESTOP and declaring:


I never should have bought it at Gamestop....

Hmm... That's 1 scenario if Video Game Renting does not exist.....

But what if it does exist?  What if you risk just $2.00 to rent the it at home.....find out you hate it???  You are only out $2.00 and you have ZERO reasons to be angry at Gamestop.

Gamestop didn't sell you the rental..... COINSTAR did.....  You have no hurt feelings towards Gamestop....renting the game....playing it......and then hating it....

But what happens if you it.....and love it????  absolutely love the heck out of it??

And then you have to return it back to Redbox???  hmm....gee....You wish you didn't have to return it do you???  You wish you actually have the video game OWNED so you can play it over and over!

And...furthermore....  With the POOR POOR POOR review scores on this title you are sure to find a USED copy of the game at your Local GAMESTOP.....  Assuredly you will!!!

And lo and behold for a very cheap discounted price you get the Video Game at Gamestop owned for life.

And you say to your self..... THANK YOU COINSTAR / REDBOX for making me a smart shopper again.

DISCLOSURE:  I own truck loads of GME right now..

DISCLOSURE:  I've been silent about this until now but *sigh* I lost the Valuemoney challenge on Ford Motor Company... There I said it... I LOST!!!!!!   I sold it off months ago to buy GME at $19.XX.




Why won't the Deceivers Fess Up? (GME)

June 07, 2011 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

The deceivers are the ones telling us that by 2014 we are going to see video gaming become almost entirely digital based. Where you buy your games digital and much less so physical.

Interesting huh then why:

NINTENDO 3DS      (Cartridges)

WII U                     (HD Optical 1080  discs)

SONY PLAYSTATION VITA   (Flash Memory Cards)

are the only announced brand new systems, announced this year, and all 3 systems use physical video games.

The Next Generation of Video Gaming is PHYSICAL!
As for why Gamestop's share price is not

$9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999999999999999999999999999999...a share as of the closing bell today...

Well...uhm.... No stock is skyrocketing today in a market that has fallen for 5.5 weeks straight.
The overall market is tanking....and thus 75% of the reason Gamestop's price has been slipping is because of that.  The other 25% is simply because the stock's RSI before it started pulling back was overheated....well above 70. Now it is more a reasonable 40 something.

And besides...

Q2 is Gamestop's worst performing quarter of the year so there is no reason for Investors to get interested in buying into a stock like (GME). Not until Q3 and especially Q4 will we see higher volume.  Furthermore.... The SLIP in share price had a lot to do with the SHORTIES constant boasting and bragging:

1) Ha ha ha SONY/MICROSOFT/NINTENDO will never let Gamestop sell a video game in their next generation consoles!!! Just watch!!!

E3 is coming!!!!!

E3 is coming!!!!! the Brittish are coming!!!!!

And these big 3 companies are going to scare the Bejessus out of the LONGS!!!!! Just watch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whooooooooooooooo boy it's a Digital Only World out there!!!!

2) Once Digital Gaming releases same day as Physical...... or companies like Electronic Arts sell their games exclusively themselves and cut out the middle man....


GAMESTOP IS DONE!!!! Better shut off the light folks!!!!!


And I get asked about "Gee, Gamestop's share price sure is skyrocketing off the news that Physical Games aren't going away." (sarcastic).

Yeah well a lot of big time Hedge Funds / Investors / Financial Managers have been trimming away their stakes starting at the beginning of the sell-off in (GME) in much anticipation that everything the SHORTIES have scared us to believing was going to be reality.

It will take a couple more weeks... Probably sometime in JULY we will see a recovery in this stock and go straight into the 30s.

It takes awhile to convince the Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, and BIG TIME Investors with millions of common stock in (GME) to finally drop the B.S. and realize that Gamestop has a future.

The only one without a future are the SHORTS that keep telling us LONGS that there is absolutely no way for Gamestop to survive or at the very least find any growth.

Give me a break!!! Gamestop has stuck in there even in the face of 10.1% unemployment.

OUR ECONOMY STINKS and no one will ignore that fact when it comes to valuing GME.

But GME will survive anything thrown at it.   [more]

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