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Varchild2008 (84.49)

July 2008



Was 2008 a Record Breaking Bull Market?

July 31, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: TAP , POT , RSG

FSLR Earnings Report Earnings = (Huge)
POT, TRA, CF Industries  Earnings  = (Huge)
EXON MOBILE, 3 Royalty Trust Stocks, Chesapeake, Vaalco, etc. (Huge)
U.S. Steel, CSN (SID), Mechel,  Earnings = Huge
Coal Stocks Earnings Huge
Railroads (CSX)  Earnings = HUGE

Even FORD produced a profit in the 1st Quarter of 2008.

Other companies that have done better this year than in the recent past:

Sun Hydraulics, Southwall Technologies, Clearly Canadian Beverage, Dr. Pepper Snapple, E-BAY, AMAZON, National Health Partners Resources, Genentech, Celgene, Wim-Bil Dann, TAP, Budweiser InBev, MEDCO Health, YUM, General Mills, McDonalds, Walmart, Costco, Gamestop, Take Two Interactive, Visa (granted this is the first year but historically it's a boom year for them), Mastercard, Netflix, Monsanto, AgFeed Industries, Hewlitt Packard, IBM, Tata Motors, Urban Outfitters, Jewlery Industry (did real well in the 1st half), Lipstick industry (1st half success),  
Marvel Entertainment, Johnson and Johnson, Cadbury, Procter and Gamble, etc.

And don't forget that this is the year of turn-a-rounds for:

1) Financials Bottomed
2) Starbucks has now bottomed and is headed up
3) E-Trade is soon to bottom
4) DELL (bottomed)
5) Intel Corp  (bottomed)
6) Dare I say it??  The "Airline" industry bottoms and is now headed up?
7) Dare I declare $42.32 a TARGET bottom?  You betcha!
8) General Electric bottoms and then soars off of Abu Dhabi deal
9) Clear Channel (a weak maybe)
10) Fannie & Freddie  (a weak maybe)

2008 =  Year of the Mega Mergers!

1) Berkshire Hathaway buy-out of Wrigley
2)  Sirius/XM
4)  Republic Services Group  (already a Merger) gets buy-out offer from Waste Management (still pending).
5)  J&J + Beijing Cosmetics  (not earth shaking but still J&J's stock price skyrocketed off the news)

Sure... I can make a pretty lengthy list of FAILURES as well mergers that didn't happen (Micro-Hoo), but taking everything together.... How in the world isn't this a BULL MARKET?  Why isn't the Dow at 15,000? 




Unemployment Rates shouldn't impact the Stock Market

July 28, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP

Call me crazy but I don't believe unemployment numbers should impact the stock market any.  Certainly, they do impact it a lot.  Stock market rallies on surprisingly good numbers and drops on bad ones.

But, my point is a point on legitamacy.  Investors and analysts can't know just from these numbers, if unemployment rate jumps, that businesses are cutting jobs and doing hiring freezes because they can't sell and make as big a profit as before.

There are other explanations for an increase in the unemployment rate.  You could have a quarter of the year in which businesses are transistioning from one product line to another.  Sorta like our auto industry cutting jobs while they transition from trucks to clausterphobic-o-biles (small cars).

A business could be shutting down a manufacturing facility, cutting 300 jobs, in order to help manage the cost of building a BIGGER facility elsewhere that will hire 1000.

Maybe I am wrong though and investors and analysts actually look into this stuff at this kind of detail.  But, I doubt it.  I've never seen a stock market rally on poor employment numbers with an optimistic outlook. 

While the "futures market" is seen as a "futures market" I have to disagree.  As far as I can tell investors are lemmings that flock like geese.  When it's time to buy, everyone buys.... When it's time to sell.... everyone sells.  When it's time to panic over the employment situation, everyone panics.

Thing is... Being an investor gives you plenty of information on when and how businesses you invest in are going to expand and open up new employment.  Just from a limited time (5 months) of being a first time investor, I've seen lots of companies that are set to provide hundreds of jobs each from expansion projects.

Yet.. From Dr. Pepper Snapple to an OTC company: Southwall Technologies....  (both are investments of mine) what I see is that the expansion is for 2010... Not for Christmas of 2008.

One would hope the "Futures Market" would send the stock market ever so slightly higher from week to week as we get to what will be a tremendously positive employment outlook 2 years from now.   Yet, this "futures market" can't even predict what the weather will be like tomorrow.  [more]



Fertilize My CROPS with CRUDE OIL Please

July 24, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: POT , MON , TRA.DL

Just want to get this off my chest.  Not only is Jim Cramer and CNBC making sound like Crude Oil prices falling means that Fertilizer is falling....  Fast Money was signalling a death nell to fertilizer for the 1 millionth time or so it seemed to my ears.

This is ridiculous.  Investors are swallowing this notion that OIL impacts Fertilizer.

(TRA) Terra Industries is a little bit different in that they carry "Methanol."  So, they could get impacted by methanol pricing I suppose.  But, I believe TRA got rid of their Methanol producing facility...or was intending too....

Nonetheless....  No one fertilizes their CROPS with CRUDE OIL.

If you want to know the pricing situation with Fertilizer you only need to focus on 1 thing.

(SUPPLY)   and  (DEMAND).

Right now demand is extremely high and supply is still catching up.  So fertilizer stocks (thank you Potash of SasPROFIT-TRON).

Some investors are wondering when the Fertilizer Madness will end....

Wake me up when Supply catches up with Demand.  When that happens...Growth Slowdown will hit hard in the fertilizer sector.  But, we'll have to wait a few years for that:-)   [more]



Investor Strategy for: TERRA INDUSTRIES (tomorrow)

July 23, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: TRA.DL

Greetings TERRA INDUSTRIES investors.

Tomorrow is simple!

As soon as the *preview* of the earnings report appears in all of its deceitful, inaccurate, malarky strikes on TRA.....  Check the Price of TRA... If it is way above your entry point.... Slap a Trailing Stop (SELL) for a small portion of your shares.

The idea is to take advantage of emotional investors bidding up the stock from the good news to your advantage.

Unfortunately, if you already took some profits on TRA's rally yesterday or today before TRA dropped back down.... And you bought more shares on the drop....

You probably can't sell any shares.

No biggee!  Just wait a week after the earnings report and stay focused on Cycling the sucker.

Could TRA report a BAD earnings report tomorrow?

YES!  They could either downgrade their outlook..... Or they could have sustained some damage issues and shipment delays during the 2Q's flood in Iowa.  Certainly can't ship out fertilizer to drowning farmers until the flood dies down.  How much impact to the downside? who knows.  Upside is that the same customers probably ordered more fertilizer because of the flood.  [more]



The Argument for Dumping the DOCTOR (Pepper)

July 22, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP , KO , PEP

The Entire Beverage Sector (and I exclude bottling companies or any company that isn't specifically a company that sells/provides drink formulas to bottlers) has been creamed into a smithereens this year.

There's something wrong when Coca Cola and Pepsi both have a large Snack Foods product line and yet have seen their stocks trade at or new 52 week lows since January.

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group hasn't produced a bad earnings report but has shown that it TOO is vulnerable to the same pressures of Coca Cola and Pepsi and unfortunately doesn't provide a dividend and doesn't really have a snack foods product line except maybe "MOTT's Apple Sauce."

But that's not the reason to dump the Doctor.  No.   DPS is far too young a stock to give up on purely on economic, consumer, volume purchasing concerns and input costs.  Those types of things are essentially irrelevant when it comes to the overall picture of a stock.

The only reason that would truly motivate me to dump the Doctor for GOOD reason is if I happen to have a *handcuff* sitting on the bench.  I happen to have such a handcuff in CCBEF.

Check CCBEF (Clearly Canadian's) chart.  Based on the chart alone how could anyone argue against the growth rate of this stock?  Trading around 70 cents a share near the beginning of the year to now trading at $1.21, this has been virtually the only SUCCESS story in the beverage industry this year...

Well...granted.... you could argue that Wim Bil Dan and other foreign beverage companies have done well this year.  Fine.... But those stocks are *expensive* and frankly.... Besides a few water companies and such there isn't anything in the whole sector performing better than CCBEF.

CCBEF has also just received analyst coverage by Wallstreet Research and feel free to check out their report listed at

Bottom line is this.... 

Go long on DPS for what?

Or Go Long on CCBEF for a potential doubling of your income next year?

CCBEF has a much larger expansion / growth potential than DPS.  CCBEF has over $5 million of cash on hand to expand their business.

CCBEF has cut their costs and expect to end their transistion costs to Toronto by the end of 2Q.
CCBEF expects to start pushing their products to America for the first time real soon from now.

CCBEF is clearly an excellent *handcuff* sitting on the bench.

So why pass on the opportunity?  Seriously.....  Can someone explain to me why I am still invested in DPS and why I haven't a share in CCBEF?  what the heck is wrong with making the swap?



Yahoo is now a Strong Buy with a Strong Precaution

July 21, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: YHOO , MSFT

News has hit today of a Compromise that increases Yahoo's board to 11 members in which 1 is Carl Ichan, 2 are Carl's handpicked choice out of his 9 or so selected individuals.

This is a complete mess.  Shareholders are going to rebel in *fear* from this news.
They were expecting something else.  This is not even fathomable as to what this even means.

However...  [more]



Advice Everyone Needs to Hear about Earnings Reports

July 19, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: TRA.DL

I am experienced enough to *HATE* and *ABHORE* and *SPIT* in the general direction of Wall Street and the Stock Market.  I am experienced enough in the stock market to know that Investing in Stocks in the Stock Market:   


It Stinks like TRA (Terra Industrie's) Earnings Report.  They report at 3:00 p.m. est.

So.. what do I do?  What in the world do I do?

My Life does not and simply can not revolve around this idiotic Stock that has done almost nothing for me save $100 worth of profit: woopie!   and the occasional 10 cent dividend....woopie!

So... I am threw with this crap...... I am threw with this idiotic manure infested Stock Market from the area opposite of Heaven.

My Game Plan is to do whatever it takes to maximize my safety and cushion myself as best as humanly possible from idiotic, Professional Investors, who spend their time getting jollies off of  *screwing* all the amateur investors from enjoying any profits.

Think I'm Nutz?  You won't after I explain some things here....

Here is what I know about the Stock Market in terms of Earnings Reports.

1)  Earnings Reports are Meaningless.  

2)  A Good Earnings Report can destroy your stock's price just as badly as a Bad Earnings Report. You think TRA's excellent 2Q report will skyrocket your stock price so you can sell it on the 24th or 25th?  *NOT LIKELY!!!!* 

3)  Idiotic Standard and Poor's and other Analysts will Jump in with their *Preview* of your stock's earnings report and they don't care how inaccurate and distorted and full of deceit and lies that report is.  How many times I've seen Standard and Poor's posting up "Correction"  after "Correction" after "Correction" I simply can't count that high!

And when do these good for nothing analysts start yapping and yapping and yapping and causing a mass stampede of Profit Taking Hooligans to knock the heck out of your stock before you ever get a chance to listen to the dang Conference Call???   They usually do it during PRE-MARKET hours!!!  Therefore, from the opening bell your stock plummets severely!  So you end up selling your stock for a *LOSS* in spite of your Fertilizer (TRA) reporting magnificent revenues!

4)  The Stock Market is faster than you!   SO don't get any ridiculous egotistical perceptions that you can sit pretty and sell off your shares at a *good* time.

5)  You are already screwed if you didn't sell your fertilizer last week!  I mean... The stock market is just that (unfair) in it's break neck, waaaaaaay to freaken fast mentality.

So what can you do on Monday?

6)  My Game Plan since I am a MORON for not selling Fertlizer Shares last Friday as I probably won't see the Stock Price go up any higher.... is to try to make a sale on Monday hoping that the Professional Investors will wait until the final hour on Monday to make their moves.

I am betting that we won't see TRA begin to nose dive until Monday Afternoon.  Once it starts to nose dive, don't look for it to do anything until well... who knows.  Profit taking will strike and continue for weeks on this stock!

So I am going to hedge my bets.... Suck in my chest... Grimace... and Make the dang Fertilizer Sale as fast as possible on Monday Morning.

In order to ensure I make a sale on this stock.. I am going to price a Limit on the stock at no better than 5% greater than the stock price.

And... I am going to litterally wait 60 seconds and if my stock is not priced where I am selling it then I am selling it for whatever price it is.

And since I can not stomache seeing TRA trade in the 30s or 20s or 10s or single digits or 1 penny a share... I am going to sell 75% of my entire stake in TRA.

Am I an idiot?  No... I am a paniced and pissed off and scared investor.

Put it this way....





Play Stocks exactly like Fantasy Football

July 15, 2008 – Comments (0)

Experts with fantastic CAPS ratings on Motley Fool can correct this "ignored player" if they want to but the following is perhaps the best advice one can offer a confused investor with a beaten down portfolio....

Play the Stock Market like you would play Fantasy Football.

Think I am nutz?  Here's a list of things that one does in Fantasy Football than I think everyone should live by especially during this bear market:  [more]



Hey CITIGROUP!! Downgrade my Stock Further Please! (AMAT)

July 15, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AMAT

Just 2 trading days after Citigroup downgraded Applied Materials from Buy to Hold, Applied Material's stock price is up 3%... Well within an 18 handle!

*gloat*  *gloat*

This goes to show that analysts that prance around analyzing stocks aren't very smart to post their opinions just 2 trading days before the pre-announced Conference Call. 

Turns out that the Semiconductor business is in the toilet for the forseeable future.  But, Applied Materials is different than most other semiconductors in that it has a Television Display and Solar Energy business (among other unique products in it's portfolio).  Applied Materials is learning how to deal and cope with a downturn in semiconductor sales by strengthening their product line and inventory in the other businesses it has.

Turns out... AMAT is expecting RECORD Revenue/Profits from it's display technology and it expects by the end of this year that it's SunFab line will be up and chugging along.

So...  If my stock gets a 3% lift-off shortly after CITIGROUP downgrades the stock.... I have 1 thing to say...

CITIGROUP!!  Downgrade the stock further!  [more]




July 14, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: BUD , FEEDQ , AMAT

1)  Some where...out there...are stockholders who think a company that produces an incompatible operating system that can't recognize your own Printer or other devices, can somehow *FIX* Yahoo and make it better?  The operating system isn't even in ENGLISH... what.. VISTA???

2)  The more Applied Materials keeps flapping its gums and issuing press releases to its shareholders about business expansion plans, landing big contracts with foreign companies, etc. the lower it's stock price goes.  Now it wants to devote ANOTHER teleconference after the one we just had last month?  No wonder after hours trading has it lower by 10+ cents.

3)  Inspite of the ticker name (FEED), the stock hasn't really FED any shareholders of late that bought into the stock when it was priced at $18 a share.

4)  A horribly named INBEV buys out Anheuser Bush.  What?  What?  Don't get it?  *sigh*
The C.E.O. must have been INBEV with Anheuser Bush's C.E.O.

5)  The same people who cried, "NO BLOOD FOR OIL," are now, today, crying, "WE CAN'T DRILL OUR WAY OUT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS WE CAUSED BY NOT WARRING FOR OIL."

6)  Anything ending in 'Royalty Trust' is the only thing in the stock market worth investing in.
The point?  I just thought we left Royalty back in 1776.

Yes I have more.... And I am sure there just as unfunny as the ones above so I'll save em for later..  [more]



Question: Could the Federal Gov't Bail me out Too?

July 14, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPF.DL , PHU , FMCC

If I dumped my current portfolio and threw the cash into several Mortgage and Housing and Financial Stocks.... Created a massive letter (whining, moaning, belly aching) campaign to Congress, would I get a Federal Gov't Bail Too?

Just wondering....  I mean... Lately...The FEDs are bailing out everyone... No wonder Barack Obama wants to raise people's taxes! 



Varchild Downgrades Citigroup's Downgrade of Applied Materials

July 11, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: AMAT

I'm personally an investor in Applied Materials Stock (AMAT).

Why?  Why?

Simple....             August: 2*0*1*0       AMAT:  $34 a share.

That's a +50% increase from where it's trading today.

So why is Citigroup downgrading Applied Materials from a Buy to a Hold?


                 August 2*0*1*0        AMAT:   $34 a share.                 (Hasn't happened yet!)

In fact.. That date is more than 2 years away.  Wow!

So....  What is an investor to do about CITIGROUP taking an extremely short period of time (MARCH 2008 to JULY 2008 = 5 months)  to declare Applied Material's Solar Energy overvalued?

Simple.... You downgrade and disregard it!

It is interesting that CITIGROUP chose to bash Applied Material's Solar Sector (which is less than 20% of Applied Material's total revenue) to produce this grandiouse downgrade.

But even more interesting.... Is CITIGROUP could have chosen to downgrade this last month when Applied Materials held a conference call on their Solar Strategy and Solar Contracts and Expectations.  They sat and did nothing until now....

Why now????   In just 2 trading days from their downgrade Applied Materials is going to have a conference call on their semiconductor business.  Couldn't CITIGROUP have waited to BASH and TRASH Applied Materials on July 15th instead????  At least they'd have something REAL to talk about.  You know.. Something *NEW* to say that shareholders would actually care to pay attention to.

Frankly... It's laughable... But.... I don't care..  It's not 2010... It's not even AUGUST.

Wake me up with CITIGROUP upgrades Applied Materials shortly after Applied Materials has built their multi-million dollar Solar Factories along with their 70 Million Dollar Semiconductor Technology Facility in Singapore... because... with all of that expansion happening around 2010... One would think CITIGROUP would actually have *FACTS* that they could look at to form a *REAL* opinion.

Oh and last time I checked... CITIGROUP's Stock isn't looking so hot.

As an investor of AMAT:  I just needed to get this off my chest :-)  [more]



Let's Celebrate! It's 400+ Record Drop in the DOW Day Folks!!!

July 11, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FNMA , FMCC

My prediction is we see a 450 DOW drop by closing bell.

Based on my prediction on the Standard and Poor's report on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
(Why is it that I keep wanting to say Daddy Mac and Mac Daddy?)

Anyhow.... Mac Daddy was given a $2 target while it's home boy  Daddy Mac got $4 target.

Henry Paulson came out and basically said a whole lot of nothing.  I immediately had a gut feeling that there would be even more widespread panic on these 2 Mortgage handlers.

We could be looking at the beginnings of something truly remarkable .... Historical 1 day drop record about to be broken folks... hold on to your seats before that gets sold off too!  [more]



Dr. Pepper Snapple: Best Stuff on Wall Street

July 11, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP , KO , PEP

Snapple is not only the best stuff on Earth.... Today, it's the best beverage on Wall Street..

Heck I think it has outperformed virtually every Beverage Stock in the entire sector in the past 5+ trading days.

DPS, after falling to its historic low, is now a momentum stock.  To play DPS if you are already an investor is to sell off some of your shares on "earnings day."  Take the Profits!  And if the stock falls the day after due to profit taking or to a poor earnings report.... Scoop up the Stock Shares for a cheaper price than you sold.

DPS is going to be a lot of fun for at least until the "NEWNESS" of the stock is still there.  [more]



NVDA & CRNT Shockingly, Breathtakingly, Undervalued

July 10, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: CRNT , NVDA

The greatest investors are able to think LONGER into the future than the average investors.  The greatest investors hold onto stocks in best of breed companies....They buy into a stock at a time when the company hits a massive downturn or makes a major mistake and they sell when all of the bad news has left the stock and the company's sales are up.   [more]



The Dr. Pepper Pac Man Game: If it's down...Gobble..Gobble...BUY...BUY!

July 09, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP , MNST , KO

The Dr. Pepper Pac Man Game:  If it's down...Gobble..Gobble...BUY...BUY!

Heck it's a strategy that works for any company's stock that has taken a massive hit from the recessionary period.  [more]




July 02, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: HAL , CHK , DAR

I'm an optimist and the following DOOM and GLOOM scenarios are pure fun.  I do not expect any of these to necessarily happen but it is interesting that perhaps each one is so close to happening today.

1:  America + Brittain + Israel go to war against Iran

2:  Strait of Hormuz shuts down completely, Oil hits record highs no one can even dream of.
All IRANIAN allies also shut down oil supplies to include Venezuala.

3:  President Obama, McCain, no difference.  Who cares.  Point is... Ethynol Mandate gets an INCREASE instead of a DECREASE.  Food prices skyrocket further, more restaurants shut down... College Students, High School Students, experience their own "Great Depression."

4:  Michigan's Economy falls into solvency.  Federal Government institute's "Great Depression" tactics of Government funded civil service work.

5:  Airlines cut flights dramatically and ticket + baggage rates combined are so high people and businesses are impacted to cut down on trips by as much as 50%.   FedEx and UPS see their positions slide to historic lows as businesses cut back on shipping packages.

6:  Foreclosed homes turn into a massive crisis in which cities are unable to support the properties and upwards of 50% are reduced to unhabitable conditions.  Cities that can afford to demolish homes do so, while others leave them bordered up.  More and more areas begin to resemble Detroit Michigan.  Americans begin living in Apartments, Home Leases, Condos, and even Trailer Parks in record numbers.  Renting becomes the "IN" thing and owning becomes impossible for most.

7:  Social Security, originally projected to go solvent by 2018, is solvent instead by 2014, with the target of Social Security going bust by 2030.

8:  Obama, McCain, doesn't matter.  Universal Healthcare becomes a reality....Waiting Lists begin.... Hospitals fill up with patients and health insurance companies begin to take massive hits creating major unforseen side effects and consequences for Home Healthcare businesses, pharmaceuticals, Walgreens, Rite Aid, CVS, etc..... Because in a down economy, and strained Federal Budget (WAR + Michigan's Situation + etc.) it becomes an absolute nightmare for medicare prescription drug coverage.

Health Insurance companies take their hits as low income familys abandon their plans in DROVES to partake in *FREE* Federally Funded healthcare.

9:  FORD goes BUST  (GM Survives) TOYOTA takes 51% of FORD's company and becomes America's largest Automaker.

10: Dollar falls in value and the world at large begins to abandon it in favor of the EURO.
It ain't stagflation.... It's DEVALUATION as companies, stock holders, foreign governments all over the world begin to enforce their own value on the Dollar based on America's Trade Deficit situation which is skyrocketing out of control.

In other words.. The worth of the DOLLAR falls completely out of the hands/control of the FEDs and completely into the hands of FOREIGNERS who collectively determine it's worth.

11:  Treasury Department panics, empties their income to save the Dollar, but creates a short term spike in the dollar's value only to succumb to more longer term inflationary problems + the War + Environmental Crap OBAMA or McCAIN get into + etc.  Eventually, Treasury Department breaks down into "broke" status.

12:  BEN Bernanke tries to save the dollar by raising the rates eventually as high as 6% only to send a down economy into America's worst depression since the 1930s.


Environmentalist Wacko Nut Balls win.  [more]



Indiana Jones and the Stock Market

July 01, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: X , MSFT , YHOO

Marion:   (Ticker:  GM, FORD)
"You can't do this to me! I'm an American!"

INDIANA:  (Ticker: MSFT)
"Snakes. Why did it have to be snakes?"

TICKER: SPX  (S & P Index)
"3 Times it Drops!"

Indiana Jones to Jerry Yang (TICKER: YHOO):
"You want to talk to God? Let's go see him together. I've got nothing better to do."

Indiana Jones: (TICKER:  FAN)
"The biggest trouble with her is the noise."  [more]

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