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Varchild2008 (84.02)

July 2009



The Stock Market in SCOTT WEILAND's eyes

July 30, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: F

And I feel It's time for investors go
So are you coming to this Market?
And I see more BEAR'S lies to come
But would you even invest?

And I feel it
And she feels it

So are you coming to this Market?
Are you're going to buy these stocks I found?
And I feel, and I feel
When the Market's begin to heat up
Will you're PUTS stand alone?

So are you coming to this Market?
Are you're going to buy these stocks I found?
And I feel, and I feel
FORD's stock price begin to heat up
Will Your Shorts stand alone?

When the euphoria finally strikes her
She's Got time, time to buy her stocks tomorrow
So buy it, So  Buy it, Just Buy it!
When the euphoria finally strikes her
Got time, time to buy FORD's Stock tomorrow
Hope she buys it, buys it, buys it!

/ end of Eurphoric celebration over the rally that won't stop!  [more]



A Look at the HYPNO TOAD reveals a Dec. 2007 Contrarian...

July 29, 2009 – Comments (4)

"All glory to The Hypno Toad

Recs  [more]



This Rally will UnRALLY real insanely quick

July 29, 2009 – Comments (5)

I hope people who can't stomache DOW 100....... Or DOW .0001   are prepared to SELL off their shares.

The numbers today are at or near their absolute WORST of the YEAR for employment, consumer spending, consumer confidence, confidence in Pres. Obama, and across the board.

Their is absolute CHAOS brewing and bubbling.... The seeds of CHAOS have been grown and are now beginning to sprout... And what they sprout ain't pretty..aint' funny either....

The following things have not bottomed:

A) Housing
B) Autos
C) Travel
D) Discretionary Spending
E) Unemployment
F) Consumer Confidence
G) Consumer Spending
H) Financials 
I) Commercial Real Estate
J) Credit Card Defaults
K) Corporate Bankruptices
L)  State / City / County Bankruptcies
M) Crime

With a straight chuckling.... Can anyone with any confidence claim otherwise?

Then why are you buying up this market to DOW 9000? 

This market shall plunge..... We can't afford a Stock Market rallying while our economy is spiraling into Chaos.  [more]



Save The EARTH ! Buy Liberal Trading Credits Now!!

July 28, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GE , BAC , VZ

The Following News is FAKE and totally based on this week's headlines:

1)   That's right folks!  Our "Cash for Clunkers" program nets you 2 Liberals for the price of NONE.  We are litterally giving away Liberals left and right at prices that are a steal!

Senator Kent Conrad /  Speaker Nancy Pelosi..... Just 1 nickle and 1 Dime short
President Barack Obama / Vice President Joe Biden  .....  Just $1 Euro folks!!
Senator Barbara Boxer /  Representative John Conyers  .....  Totally FREE! Limited time only!  [more]




July 27, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: TGT , DPS

PERSHING Square somewhere back in Q1 liquidated out of DPS. Now Yahoo Finance issues weekly updates on a Pershing Square. Why in the heck should I care? It's there bad.... They ditched DPS based on Valuation getting ahead of itself around $19.00.

PERSHING Square keeps pumping and pumping Target stores..... Are they serious?
I don't mind it one bit if they are doing so purely on the grounds of trying to resurrect this company,
but Pershing Square isn't going to resurrect anything.

TARGET is need of a "Marther Stewart" type to head in and push products people want to buy...
TARGET had a great product in Pepsi's "TAVA" sparking flavored water but that completely stopped for no reason.   Now I have ZERO reason to go into a TARGET store.

Here's my concern with PERSHING Square...

In 1 breath they want to help Target become more profitable and successful... In order to do that Target needs unique products customers want and enough publicity and advertisemen to let those customers know Target's got em.

In Pershing's 2nd Breath they bail out on DPS (Dr. Pepper Snapple Group), inspite of all the Earnings Beats totally based on the success of their product lineup.  Their products attract customers to whatever store they are sold at.

Get my drift?  Pershing Square doesn't have a clue how to resurrect TARGET if they can't even recognize the value of the kinds of things TARGET sells....That being Beverages....That Being DPS.  [more]



This Stock Market Rally is FAKE: Sorry folks

July 24, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR , BAC , UNH

5% more laying people off than hiring.   The biggest gap in quite sometime.
Consumer Spending has taken a massive -16 dollars on the 3 day average.  That's gigantic!

The rally is false!   the rally is false!  this rally is false!  Even Varchild was moved by it to declare himself strongly bullish.

But, I am not declaring myself  Strongly Bearish!

Alstry's 9.09  Stock Market Collapse is not off the table folks!   Not by any stretch.

The following are a massive set of economic headwinds that the EUPHORIC Media is refusing to report:

1)  There is STILL a global slowdown.  No one is claiming anything concerning Growth except perhaps some parts of Asia.... Maybe India...Korea..China....Maybe....  But even then the growth is a meager 3% or less.    Everywhere else is absolutely still slowing down.

2)  Today the Minimum Wage just went up.  What does this mean?   Hotels, Barber Shops, Dry Cleaners, Laundry Mats, Motels, and a whole host of other small businesses that can not afford to pay $7.25 an hour will start slashing HOURS and perhaps WORKERS over this.

3)  Airlines have slashed THOUSANDS of jobs this past week.   Of which none of that has yet to be fatored into any unemployment benefit roll numbers.

4)  States are starting to be unable to pay out Unemployment Benefits...  When that money dries out VIOLENCE and CRIME will escalate beyond belief.  Already in Michigan people have been going around stealing Tires off of Vehicles in Metro Detroit just to get some money.

5) If HEALTH CARE or CAP AND TAX pass and become law....  Unemployment will skyrocket perhaps DOUBLING within 1 year of passage.

I just heard a Radio Commercial today that started off saying, "In Today's Recovering Economy..."

What the heck????  What kind of junk is this????  WE ARE MOST CERTAINLY not out of the woods by far.  [more]



Emperor Obama has no Clothes!

July 23, 2009 – Comments (12)

Wow....  President Obama sounded like Reverend Wright last night folks.   I missed it... But I am catching up on it via conservative web blogs.  I haven't bothered to read the Liberal blogs but the word on the street is that the liberals didn't like the press conference either....

President Obama revealed himself to have NO CLOTHES on the Health Care debate... NO CLOTHES on the issue of racial profiling....  He has shown his true colors for perhaps the first time to the American people.  Many who actually did sit and watch the Press Conference reported having to see it again (what I mean is that was what the WJR 760am radio host in Metro-Detroit Michigan said he did).  [more]



Vroom! Vroom! Party Started! (F) Ford

July 23, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: F , AAI.DL2

Vroom! Vroom! Party Started!  (F) Ford  reports $2.3 billion profit or 21 cents a share loss without special items.  In either case a huge upside surprise report....

So.... Vroom! Vroom! Party Started!  (F) Ford

I wonder how many naysayers will switch over and hop on the Ford Bandwagon?

As for me... VARCHILD.... The "Great Varchild"  is going to switch his sentiment from NETURAL to STRONGLY BULLISH.

Come on folks!  So many people out of a job means it is fairly simple for these businesses to turn a profit.  Tom, Dick, and Harry can buy 1 Coffee each at Starbucks and Starbucks turns a profit.
Little Johnny Joe can purchase a Backhoe for cultivating his Farm and Caterpillar can turn a profit.

So many naysayers so little time... So many expecting bad news from companys like (AAI) and getting their butts kicked when the news was actually good.

If Varchild says (AAI) sure is a buy.... then (AAI) is a buy.... Even inspite of my most recent screw up with (HOTT) Hot Topic..  But hey.. I got people out of Hot Topic as fast as lightning as I got myself out of that one quickly.   [more]



Fake News: Pres. Obama demands Ron Paul style Poll Scamming

July 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: UNH

*Fake News*  President Barack Obama has announced another bailout program.  This one is about his own polling numbers.  "What we need to do is to get all those who helped push Ron Paul's numbers on during the Republican Primary Race on Internet and Phone polling agencies to help me out here.... Help me out here guys...uh.... My Health Care numbers are below 50.  So...Just like you mass e-mailed and mass blogged to get people to flood Republiacn Primary Polls for Ron Paul, I need you to do the same for my Presidential Approval Numbers for Health Care reform.

And while your at it... I need some help with my own overall Presidential Job Approval numbers.... Now now.. I know what your thinking.... Your thinking this is about me....  Please... This was always about me!  I mean...I need to win re-election in 2012.... I can't do that with Gallup showing that only 59% of Americans approve of me when 72% approved of me on Innuaguration day...

I need some artificial inflationary poll scamming from the Ron Paulian crowd... So go out there and make a sacrifice for your President.  After you're done doing that maybe you can help me repair my Teleprompter.

You see...uh... My approval numbers started slipping ever since my Teleprompter broke.  If I fix it then I'll know what to say in these Pre-Rehersed Press Conferences so as to make Americans FAWN and DROOL over me...  Let's face it... People don't like me for my looks.... They like me for my teleprompt speech making....So...Uh....What do you say Ron Paulians??"  [more]



Airtran Airways earns TOP PICK for today's market

July 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AAI.DL2

They report tomorrow and I've been bullish on Airtran for quite sometime... Ever since I chose them back in MAY on my Las Vegas trip.  The company has packed flights through much of Q2 due to being able to offer real cheap airfare....

A recent article shown off of Yahoo Finance points out the nice touches aboard an Airtran Airplane...I'd like to also point out that besides WiFi access they have Satellite Radio Hookup you can listen to with a pair of headphones.  [more]



Varchild's Top 4 Sub-Sub-Sectors for new Money

July 20, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: RHI , UNFI

Varchild's Top 5 Sub-Sub-Sectors for new Money

4)  Business Services - Staffing Sub-Sub Sector:   The deeper the unemployment the better for these companys.
If I was wrong on this contrarian idea I had at the beginning of this year then why is:

MPS Group 

 All trading hihger by around 20%?  Spherion higher by over 100%?

Need a contrarian play?  Simple... Buy staffing companys while unemployment rises... Sell them as Unemployment falls.

3)  Oil Services Sub-Sub-Sector  -    The worse this sector keeps getting.... The better for your cash.. 
Why bother when Halliburton's earnings for Q2 were absolutely terrible?  Cause you buy low and sell high and more importantly....Oil prices are set to go higher and higher regardless of the status of the economy.   Earnings better than expected so maybe TODAY is not the time to buy HAL, but instead to buy something else like (HOS) or (BHI) or (BJS) or etc??

2) Healthcare Services Sub-Sub Sector

Learn all about American Medical Alert and (HRT) to discover 2 companys with momentum behind their businesses and share prices.  These are conglomerate corporations involved in handling or managing medical treatments, phone answering services for hospitals, healthcare solutions, and a whole host of other activities.  You essentially get a diversified business for your hard earned money to invest in rather than pinning your hope on a drug pipeline or on a medical technology product like other sectors in Healthcare force you to do.

Want safety and security?  (AMAC) Fortune 100 fastest small business growth list.  That's saying something!  [more]



Prototype vs. Infamous

July 17, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , SNE

No Contest Folks!   PROTOTYPE  Slaughtered INFAMOUS!

MAY (debut) Sales for Infamous:   175,000  copies    Playstation 3.

JUNE (debut) Sales for Prototype:  491,000 copies  Xbox360.
                                                   600,000 copies total (multiplatform wide)  [more]



GOOG to $500 a share? See? I told you so!!!

July 16, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GOOGL

Analysts analyzing GOOGLE's earnings report today are already talking about Google going to $500 a share before the end of the year.

Gee?  Where do I remember hearing that said before?  Oh I know... from MYSELF!  I said it $400 a share was a bargain for Google and $500 a share was where the stock was headed before the end of this year.  Probably much higher now than $500 cause GOOGLE is producing earnings far better today than when it was $700+ a share.

Is it too late to get into GOOG tomorrow? today?   nope....

As long as GOOG remains below $700.... GOOG = Strong Buy!




Global Economy?: How's Whirlpool & Electrolux Doing?

July 16, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR

Want to know how the Global Economy is doing?

GE?  Nope..not going to give you a clue...

AAPL?   Nope...Selling iPhones and MACs does not represent anything but iPhones and MACs.

GOOG?  Sorry, Companys advertiisng or not advertising is not a measure of Global Economic Status.  Neither is selling G1 or G2 phones.

WHR and Electrolux?  *Bingo!*  If Whirlpool's share price is doing well then the Global Economy is doing well.  Which ever direction (WHR) and Electrolux go indicates the direction YOU should go.


WHR has multiple namebrands reaching nearly all countries if not every single country on the planet.  Selling home appliance products is the #1 determining factor in how Home Depot and Lowe's are doing (Retail sector), or how the Housing Market is doing, or how Manufacturing and Industiral is doing...

Lots of commodities are involved in Home Appliances....  Trains transport the commodities which in turn are used to build more Home Appliances....

The Energy Market?  Home Appliances have that in spades as they continue to meet Energy Star mandates for more Energy Efficient and Water Usage efficient standards.

Every FACET of the economy is wrapped up in 2 Stocks that you should track at all times whether invested in them or not.... They are DE-FACTO  Watch List staples.....

So?  Why not take a peak at WHR and Electrolux if you don't know how they are doing today to see for yourself....See if the Global Economy is recovering just with 1...ok make that 2 glances.  [more]



We Invest in the Market we Have

July 15, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: INTC , GS , GOOGL

We Invest in the Market we Have, not in the Market we WISH to have!

Let me be perfectly clear.... The Market today STINKS to High Heaven cause you know all of these laughable gains in the market will be wiped out completely once President "I throw like a Girl that can't throw a baseball" Barack Obama signs CAP and TAX  (or) his Health Care Destruction Bill into law.

Cause once either of those two happen then the LAW creates such an impossible atmosphere when it comes to making profits that we will instantly DOUBLE whatever the Unemployment figure happens to be on the day President "I got Booed in St. Louis" Hussein Obama Carter signs the crap sandwhiches into law.

With that said....  We invest in the Market we Have.... Not the Market we WISH to have!   

The market goes up and down only because we are going sideways wavering around whether or not those bills will pass.   In that atmosphere, we have to be very cautious and on guard.. We have to ascertain how healthy the companys in our portfolios are and whether or not they stand a hells chance of surviving either of those 2 Cesspool Legislative Tragedies.

In the end....  It's really about speculation as the GAME is always about Speculating on the future.
Short term, America's Economy is DEAD in the water....dead bodies can float for awhile.

As investors...we must find stability in these earnings reports....must find evidence that cost cutting measures will ensure survival.... It's all about survival.... Intel's rally today was just that.... YAY!!! INTEL CAN SURVIVE THE WORST OBAMA CAN THROW AT IT!!!

If the European Union can't destroy INTEL then neither can OBAMA.  So... Wahoo!  Buy Buy Buy EUPHORIA..... EUPHORIA!!!

If you have companys in your portfolio that are INTEL- LIKE  then you will be ok to remain a long term investor here...yes...even if 1 or both of SATAN's Bills ...err wait.... I insulted Satan... I mean President Barack Obama's bills passes.  [more]



Varchild Downgrades DPS from Strong Buy to Hold

July 15, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

Seeing that DPS share price is really really close to $23.25..... Which is about 13.5 times  the expected 2009 full year earings for DPS, DPS is now a hold.

I just hope this thing HOLDS around $22.50 to $23.25  up to the earnings report day.  Then we can see if $1.75 or better is what DPS will earn this year....

If it starts to look like DPS can do $1.80 this year which would be insanely bullish on the stock, then we can easily see the share price spike to $24.00 a share or higher....  [more]



Biased DPS investor LAUGHS at Q2 analyst earnings expectations

July 14, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

I'm biased on DPS so I talk about DPS alot.... Afterall I have poured thousands of dollars into the stock in just a few months beyond 1 year past its IPO day (and I bought near the opening bell on that day).

But.. I don't care that I am biased.. I am excited and thrilled to see Diet Dr. Pepper getting sold as if it's Crack Cocciane.  Those who want to enjoy the taste of Dr. Pepper without the calories....They flock to the Diet brand.

So while I don't see stores with near to empty shelves for the Regular brand.... What I do see at my work place vending machines, Walmart, Meijers, and other locations are empty shelf after empty shelf of the Diet Dr. Pepper beverage.

WIth the company introducing the drink to more fast food chain stores (Mc Donalds + Jack in the box)....Only a matter of time before the investment community pleasantly discovers that the 50 cents a share EPS estimate is completely undervaluing DPS's Q2 performance.  [more]



Varchild goes to War! FRPT + F + EAG

July 10, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: FRPT.DL , F

Ticked off seeing the Defense Sector being mind boggling sold off and shorted for NO REASON what-so-ever... It was fairly easy for me to dump MSM yet liquidation sale....

and pour the money into F + EAG + FRPT.

Yes... This gives me a tremendous amount of exposure to the Defense Sector...
I have FLIR + EAG + FRPT....  3 defense companys I absolutely love now powering my portfolio sky high to the up side while the rest of the economy collapses...

That's the way to play this market.... Some COWARDS  just *quit* and go to Cash....
Not Varchild!!!  No waaay....No how.... I'm just Doubling Down on FORD, EAG, and FRPT now.

FRPT strated the day off at a ridiculous 6.6 P/E ratio!!!   6.6??????   6.6??????

Give me any stock under an 8 P/E and 90% of the time you'll have instant success buying the shares.  Unless the stock is AIG.  [more]



American Defense Systems unfair neglect...

July 09, 2009 – Comments (11)

Varchild first bought into (EAG) American Defense Systems  on February 6th, 2009 at 83 cents a share and then bought more the same day at 84 cents a share.

Since then...Varchild bought at 75 cents, 73 cents, 71 cents, 64 cents, 57 cents, 53 cents, and 52 cents a share.    Grand total share count thus far? 
6,261 shares   (approx. between .01% and .02% stake in the company's total outstanding common shares.)

At this rate in 5 years or less Varchild will have enough shares to be forced to report his stake to the SEC, cause it only takes about 5% to reach the limit at which you must report what you got.


I have no interest in purchasing any more shares for the time being because of this.

Let's say I abandon all of my shares in all of the other companys that I have in my portfolio and then spend the money entirely on EAG stock at the current today's closing price of 48 cents a share.

I'd have WELL OVER  64,594 total shares.... That would be between .17 and .18% stake in total common shares.

With an RSI value of near CRITICAL 33%.

That huge of a stake at a critically low RSI value in a Company whose business is absolutely far better this year than it ever was in company history.  They have a much bigger backlog today than they ever had before and with the latest presser regarding the HMEE vehicle saving a soldier's life due to the armor that ADSI (EAG) makes....that speaks volumes in just how bright a future ADSI has inspite of how competitive the Armor Industry is.

Sure, there is a lot of competition in the defense sector making lots of investors believe that when you invest in a defense stock you are gambling on X contract or Y contract going to that company.

Well... I say that type of attitude is wrong.  I say these defense stocks like (EAG), (BA), (FLIR), (RNT), (FRPT), (LMT), and so on.... All have MOTLEY FOOL Long Term Growth Value.

There's no reason to abandon EAG cause the share price keeps dropping.  Which is why I keep buying... staying on the *BUY* side until that share price goes to where I believe Fair Value is.

Right now... This ain't no FAIR VALUED stock... EAG is being treated here with Unfair Neglect.
Short-Term fly in the pants investors I guess don't like the idea of buying a stock like EAG and holding onto it forever like I do....  That's fine... Let them leave...  When this strikes at or near 37 cents a share (its 52-week low) then rest assured... If the share price doesn't spike back up again I am certainly going to be beyond motivated to dump something large in my portfolio and use the cash to scoop up more shares.

Maybe I'll ditch my MSM stock.    EAG's falling share price is definitely pushing me to dump something.  [more]



Finding NEMO...a Michigan

July 09, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: HOT , MAR

It's difficult enough to find NEMO, only to then have to find NEMO a Job after he's found in the state of Michigan.  Fortunately, as seen it today's jobless claims filing, jobs ARE becoming slightly more plentiful in the Good Ole U S of A's Midwestern States.

1) Chrysler's out of bankruptcy and GM will be soon...FORD is increasing production.

2) BASH Michigan's movie industry all you want (which is based entirely off of sustaining a $100 million annual subsidy), but the fact is that when these Celebrities like George Clooney (recently was seen filming a movie across the street from Tiger's baseball park) fly over here they have to sleep somewhere... Where? In a 5 star HOTEL of course...Or at least a 4 Star.... We have plenty of well established 4 and 5 star Hotels.

Mariott...Sheraton....and plenty of Hotel companys have their presence here.  So there are jobs, jobs, jobs in the HOTEL industry in Michigan.....  A positive side effect of the movie industry that goes unreported and unnoticed.

So....NEMO needs a job?  Go grab George Clooney's Bags.  [more]



Yet another ATVI Article *Bleh*

July 08, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

I smell $11.45 as a support level.  I'm moving my "You should buy" target on ATVI at $11.45 or below.  [more]



#1 Obama Fear Based Stock to buy today...Bulbs!

July 07, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: GE

Want to know what investment should be on your mind right now?  INCANDESCENT BULBS!!!

Pres. Barack Obama wants to take away everyone's Incandescent Bulbs and FORCE everyone to use the CRAPSTER-IFIC bulbs instead.

I have 2 floor lamps.  1 is hardly ever used cause it stinks.  That one uses the Enviro-Wack Bulbs that have a silly spiral shape and contain enough mercury to blow up the planet.

This floor lamp needs to have 3 solid state Enviro-Wack Bulbs + 1 3-Way Envirowack Bulb just to equal enough light to my  SINGLE..INCANDESCENT  3-WAY Bulb Floor Lamp.   And they don't equal it.... they miserably fail in comparison to 1 single 3-way Incandescent Bulb.  MISERABLE!!!  [more]



Finally, a realistic longterm view of ATVI

July 07, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Expect some short term pain this year and next....  only to discover long term growth happening more on the BLIZZARD side of business and less so on the ATVI side.

Blizzard could be set to start outpacing revenue growth year over year versus ATVI's Guitar Hero and other popular franchises.  I'm not all that worried if ATVI starts to contract... Cause I see BLIZZARD set to accelerate their earnings potential... And I believe Blizzard can outpace any contraction ATVI may go through from the current High Unemployment situation in America and Global.

Before I continue... read the following from if you haven't seen this yet:  [more]



The CZAR Stock: Obama's Favored Enterprise Corporation

July 07, 2009 – Comments (0)

*Spoof*   A little known equity trading in the bulletin boards is the "CZAR" Stock, which is the CZAR corporation's ticker symbol.

Since becoming President, Barack Obama has tapped the resources of the CZAR corporation for all sorts of regulations that only a CZAR can manage.  So far we have seen the creation of 32 CZARs with a possible "Federal Insurance CZAR" becoming CZAR #33.  This in turn has generated a more than 50% year over year growth for the CZAR corporation.

This is good news for a struggling company that has seen its share price slaughtered, its equity removed from the NASDAQ and placed on the Bulletin Boards, because no CZARs were needed for the TARP spending bill of 2008 or the $600 Stimulus Check, during President Bush.  There simply was a total lack of need to create CZARs back then.

With President Obama, the CZAR business has not only picked up.. It has been put on Steroids, Human Growth Hormones, Protein Shakes, Speed, and Epinephrine Shots.

President Obama'a ambitious goals have motivated his decision to create 32 CZARs which include:

1) CZAR of Flossing

2) CZAR of Ticker Symbols

3) CZAR of Taxing the Internet

4) Soda-Pop Pinski  CZAR

5) Napkin Holder CZAR

6) "Are we there yet?"  CZAR

7) "I inherited this recession" CZAR

8) CZAR of  bowing to the Royal Saudi King 

9)  Monopoly Board Game CZAR

and our personal favorite

10)  The Human Resources CZAR (needed to manage all the hiring of all these CZARs)

We believe that despite the share dillution and its Bulletin Board Status, that (CZAR) is a huge growth story for at least 3.5 more years.  We give this 6 out of 5 Motley Fool Stars (48,000 Outperform vs. 0 Underperform ratings).

If President Obama can keep going at the current pace of generating CZAR after CZAR for such things as Liposuction CZAR, Mamogram CZAR, and the more recent "Swine Flu" CZAR, then (CZAR) CZAR Corporation will quadruple their earnings within 12 months....

Now that's a Growth Story We can Believe in!  [more]



An Analysis of HANS and DPS before Earnings Reports

July 06, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS , MNST

1)  HANS:   Varchild raises Buy rating to Super Strong OMG buy rating.

I don't care about the P/E ratio.. HANS below $30 is a steal.  This company has tons of cash available to expand their beverage catalog in the near future and they are growing the size of areas for selling their drinks.

I still say that I do not like a 1-hit wonder stock like HANS  cause as soon as people start looking for the next best thing, the sales of the 1-hit wonder take a plunge.  Let's face it.. Whether it is distribution problems or consumer spending / economic issues, Monster energy drink and its variants did not do so well in Q2.

But, what else happened in Q2?  Oil prices went up... Input costs skyrocketed.  Guess what?  HANS's future is now the following:

1:  It's July so OIL prices as Varchild predicted are falling in Q3.

2: Distribution issues in Q2 should be ironed out by now.

3: There is nothing stopping HANS from taking a QUE with DPS in incorporating cost saving measures for distributing beverages.  DPS has incorporated a GXS price & promotion system.  HANS could easily step in and join DPS in becoming another GXS customer.....Get those costs reduced and get your promotions out in quick fashion.

In short... The cheaper HANS gets... the more it's worth buying. 

2: DPS              Take EPS of $1.72  and multiply it by a 17 P/E.  Why?   Pepsi trades at 17.7 P/E.
With several earnings beats under its belt, sooner rather than later, DPS will become a momentum stock that will trade in comparison to the same P/E Multiple as KO and PEP.

Even if it trades 1 or 2 P/E below.... We are looking at a $29 stock.  Not a $22 stock.

So?  Keep piling in and buying this one straight through the earnings report.  I stocked up on this one big time in Q2 raising my stake overall to 476.  That's over $10 grand! 

I think you can trust me on this.. The beverage sector is going to be exciting now that OIL prices are set to plunge 10-15%.... back in the $50s again.

The aforementioned cost cutting moves DPS is doing are absolutely sensational.  They increase the pace at which DPS's debt is paid down.  DPS doesn't have the inventory, distribution problems that HANS's growing pains have... and so there is definitely some wiggle room to argue in favor of DPS versus HANS... And if HANS is trading at $29+ then DPS deserves to at least Market Perform along with HANS for a bit....if not outperform.

My latest trip to MEIJER store showed me that there were ZERO in stock Diet Dr. Pepper 2-liters.
Diet Dr. Pepper's sales have gone up huge in Q2 and now it looks like that will carry over into Q3.

Q4 = Winter months for the Midwest States and Beverages sales are challenged.  But, the share price shouldn't be for DPS or HANS.  [more]



Not liking MSC Industrial Direct's earnings report

July 02, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MSM

*WARNING*  I am biased in that my stake of 60 shares was slashed yesterday in half to 30 on the premise of expecting a bad earnings report.  So take this opinion with a grain of salt.

But, I guess I have great trepidation here seeing the share price go up over this earnings report.. I have enough CASHOLA to just buy back what I sold (stomache the loss given that the share price is higher) and probably gain some additional shares.

However, MSC Industrial Direct's forward looking earnings estimate was below expectations.
Last time I checked a good earnings report MUST have a good forward earnings expectation, not just a Top Line Earnings beat in the previous quarter.

I still stand by (MSM) as a great long term investment.... But I don't stand by the stock being priced at $37.00+ at this time.  There needs to be evidence of actual growth coming around the corner rather than the mere *hope* that there will be..

I guess HOPE and CHANGE doesn't work me!   So, I'll wait this one out and see if the Share Price drops to a $34 handle before I step in and scoop.

The only loss is not much.. If the share price never drops to an inviting level... I GAIN MONEY off of still owning 30 shares..... If the share DOES DROP... then great.. I'll buy more aggressively and hopefully in time to collect on the Dividend at the end of this month.  [more]



Drink some Dr. Pepper Snapple Rocket???

July 01, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

Why is my stock rocketing up like Dr. Pepper and Snapple are going out of style?

Share price has surged to $22.45.... Up 6% at the peak already this trading day.  NO NEWS.. NO PRESS Release.... Nothing.

Granted.. I stand by my belief in how ridiculously oversold and undervalued (DPS) happens to be and I am a buyer of the stock for as long as this one remains less than $30 a share.

DPS hasn't done a thing wrong.... It's on ZACKS #1 Strong Buy list.... They continue to beat earnings estimates and the Q2 earnings are going to be absolutely through the Stratosphere (in spite of continued weakness in Venom & Snapple premium beverages).

Snapple does seem to be turning a corner and I think its sales bottomed out in Q2 thanks to the introduction of absolute winning flavors:

1) Snapple GREEN TEA:   Awesome!  Don't forget to shake the drink before hand though as if you don't shake you won't get that cold Green Tea taste.  This drink is healthy...low in sodium...I don't think it has any sugar in it..  It has antioxidant for increasing metabolism.  This beverage is a winner!

Other new Snapple beverages come to mind from their new Natural Flavor campaign look.  I think Snapple's sales start to see real growth in 2010.

There's no reason right now NOT to buy (DPS) below $24.00 a share.... Fine and dandy I guess that investors are buying the stock in an absolute hurry... more power to them....

But...I still think 6% skyrocket .... A movement not seen except during a Fireworks Show for 4th July Celebrations...MEANS something is up.. Someone knows something..... maybe an early peak at Q2 earnings report?

I don't need an early peak at Q2. You have no idea of the truck loads and truck loads of DPS branded beverages are Crammed into my Refridgerator on a weekly basis.

CRUSH sales are absolute CRUSHING expectations beyond belief.   Cost cutting moves by DPS are making headway against the rising price of OIL.

What's not to like?  When you have a company full of so many positives... Why on Earth is the Best stuff on Earth priced less than its IPO price of $26.50?  [more]

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