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Varchild2008 (86.45)

July 2010



Bleak Future of OBAMA MOTORS

July 30, 2010 – Comments (12)

Bleak Future of OBAMA MOTORS

When's the last time General Motors earned "Truck of the year honors?" 
This year's truck of the year is the Dodge Ram....That's a Chrysler vehicle.
Last year was the Ford F150.....    
Year before that was the TOYOTA TUNDRA


What about Car of the Year?

This year it is the FORD FUSION
Last year it was the NISAN GT-R
Year before that it was Cadillac CTS    (good job GM... First Win in 6 decades)

(THIS IS according to Motor Trend)

So....  That brings us to the Chevy Volt....   For $41,000 you get a vehicle that gives you less miles than you would get on a Hybrid....  340 miles before your next fillup versus in some cases as much as 400 miles on some Hybrids..  

Don't believe me that the VOLT gives you a whopping 60 miles less than today's Hybrids?
Gee... Not a problem if you don't....

Cause.. FORD ESCAPE HYBRID  does just that:

Then you have the problem with finding outlets to recharge your battery...
You have the additional concern regarding whether enough energy exists to support the Electric Car Concept.   If thousands of cars are electrically charging up within a 50 mile radius....  YIKES!

And what happens to your Electric Bill?      Running a Stove to cook your meal while your Laundry is going and your Car is recharging up and 2 of your Televisions + DVR is running and something is cooking in your Microwave....      YIKES!

Do people want the additional expense of recharging their cars when they have to fill up the VOLT with GASOLINE anyhow in order to achieve the full 340 miles....   That's right.... CHEVY VOLT is not a 100% electric only vehicle...  You still have to go to the Gas Station for Gas.

Then we have the news of how ridiculously expensive Electric Car Batteries are when you need to replace them.  

Looks nice and drives nice are not going to become the TOP Concerns of prospective electric car buyers.    People are going to want to know what the TRUE life-time costs of owning one of these are when those costs show up in Consumer Reports article..... good luck selling the Chevy Volt.

And if the Chevy Volt is a massive FLOP then where does that leave GM?



Smokin in the Voting Booth - A Song for today's Market

July 27, 2010 – Comments (1)

Smokin in the Voting Booth   ----  Lyrics By Varchild2008

Like a Silhouette trapped in a Zoo
I see your telling me you don't know what to do

Well.......  [more]



OUT Hayward: IN Dudley Do-Right

July 26, 2010 – Comments (0)

If BP is too have any future at all much less a STRONG future then here are some Varchild2008 tips and strategies for the new C.E.O.

Hey Dudley!  Do-Right!

1)  DUMP all Windmill/Solar Panel efforts immediately.  Use your cash flow to increase lobbying efforts for Shallow Water Drilling.

2)  Get a Paternership formed among oil companies to help decrease the costs of any future safety regulations, or safety equipment that may be required as a result of President Obama's on-going inquiry into increasing oil drilling safety.

       In other words.... I call it "Revenue Sharing" to reduce the impact of any increased Regulations or Obligations as any result of this 6 Month Moratorium.  

When President Obama says he is looking into making off-shore drilling safer.....that never means cheaper.

3)  Don't bring back the dividend anytime soon.   Focus on rebuilding your image first!!

And that is it..... 3 simple... RIGHT THINKING....points of considerations for the new C.E.O.

OUT!  Hayward.....  IN!  Dudley Do-Right!

P.S.   Stocks that are on my radar screen this week besides (RHI):

1)  COT             They report earnings Tomorrow

2)  CCE       They Report earnings Wednesday

3)  DPS      Reports earnings Thursday  [more]



Top Performing Food/Drink Stocks

July 24, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DPZ , RUTH , JSDA

I'm doing a quick Top Performing FOOD/DRINK CHART (bizarre micro cap weirdness stocks excluded here):

1)  (CBOU)    up 33.6%

1)  (HSY)    up 31.9%

1)  (DPZ)  up 57.5%

1)  (RUTH)  up 151.1%

1) (MRFD) up 25%

1) (JSDA)  up 162.79%

1) (HOOK)   up 105.83% 

This isn't enough to decide if these stocks are a buy as they may have run their course for the year... But it is interesting to look at and to see if 2011's list will have any of these names on it.

Interesting how NON-ALCOHOLIC Beverages beats all other sector's top performer... Granted my list could be flawed if I have failed to find the correct top performer and I am excluding some unheard of micro caps that may have done better percentage wise...

But still.....  Beverages both alcoholic and non-alcoholic are smoking hot this year.
The DINING Restaurant beats Fast Food handily...

Fast Food Restaurants can not keep up with Coffee Shops....  [more]



Perma-Bull vs. Bearish Predisposition Pros

July 23, 2010 – Comments (0)

The following are excerpts from the above article "Bearish Predisposition" and my own remarks following them.

"Their behavior is unusual, since the typical pattern is for the average adviser to become more bullish as the stock market rises"

"Of course, the advisers rarely acknowledge that history doesn't speak with one voice on a particular issue. Instead, they too often choose to highlight just one of the historical parallels."

"And it's bullish from a contrarian perspective when the conclusion on which advisers are basing their facts is that the market is going to decline."

Amen to that....    A bunch of short timing PROs that are pushing against the upward trend lines that occasionaly have had some hiccups along the road.... but are still up trending.

Hey.. I am just glad I am not one of those PROs that are PERMA-BEARISH.     I just pumped in more than $1,000 of my money to accumulate more shares of stock from (CBOU) and (SVA).

And..... Furthermore.... (SVA) hasn't exactly been doing well this year.  It has been getting crushed.

So... One can not say that I am bullish just cause I have (F) or just cause I have (DPS)... Not when I am heavily invested in a LOSING stock like (SVA).

I play the market from a long term scenario based method....looking at catalysts and tracking them and gaging how the company is doing to achieve the results they should receive once those catalysts arrive.  That's real investing....  That's sticking with your investments for YEARS instead of Days.

Next Week's Stock Varchild is Watching:

1)  RHI

Varchild2008 Recommended Stocks Update

1) GAME:     It is much higher now than when I threw a tantrum and said this was ridiculously oversold.

2) PLD:    Well past $11.00  instead of less than...

3) FRED:   Closing in on $11.00.

All were recommended Watch List or Buys by the MORON... NON-Professional  "Varchild2008."  [more]



Adventures of a PERMA-BULL

July 16, 2010 – Comments (8)

Wooooaaaaawwww!!!!!!!  Greatest Bull Market Stock Rally ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Lookedy  lookedy  lookedy!!!

(GS)  up  1.91%

(PTEC) up 3.61%

(MOS)  up 2.2%

(MON) up .14%

Is there anything in this stock market that won't trade up today???  Cause I can't find it !  WOW!

If I wasn't a believer in the OBAMA  Economic Bull Market Rally Cycle before... I sures am now!  [more]



YENNING for more U.S. Dollars

July 16, 2010 – Comments (3)

Actually... It appears no one is YENNING for U.S. Dollars.....

Since I put out a *WARNING*  on the EURO/USD  stating that we are in serious doo doo if it dips past 1.19.....  (and it never did.. it touched it and then bounced back up).

I may as well post another speculative *WARNING* on the U.S. Dollar / YEN situation.

USD/JPY                <  65.00             and we are in seriously insane DOO DOO droppings.

So let's hope it doesn't happen....  I'd like to have an AMERICA left to enjoy next year.

Today's Stocks to Watch:


3 recent recommendations from Varchild.  All taking a beating today from the nearly 200 point DOW plunge this morning.  *Ouch*

We will ever see DOW 2,500   ever again?  Or are we destined to go below 2,500 on the DOW forever and ever?  Not that we are below 2,500 sayin...what if?  [more]



BP Caps the Stock Market Rally

July 15, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: PLD

Would've chosen a happier title to this wonderful news... but the Stock Market (DOW) just lost its winning streak on the very day BP caps the oil spill.   So... I am stating in fact BP is to blame for the Stock Market not turning GREEN at the close.

Boooooo!  on BP!!!      :-)  Ok I jest....  

News like this deserves to be celebrated even though (certainly) there's still a lot more work to do to ensure we put a stop to the oil spewing once and for all... But hey?  Can't ignore the great success done today by BP.

Maybe Shareholders should start Thanking BP for finally getting the job done by paying a visit to their nearest BP Gasoline Dealer and filling up.... Just a thought.


Hmm.....  What stock traded UP today that is flying under the radar and Varchild2008 wants YOU to put the stock on your Watch List?

*WARNING:  All Recomendations, Suggestions, Opinions by Varchild2008 must not be misconstrued to be opinions, suggestions, recommendations, by someone with an IQ level above 15.75*


June 10th:  S&P  BUY Opinion on Prologis

July 13th:  FBR  Outperform Opinion

Earnings have been improving of late but still producing negative EPS.  Earnings report is July 22nd.    Take a look see!    5.75% Yield on 15 cents a share....  Stock remains below $11 and this is something in GOOD TIMES should be more like $40 a share.

A recent announcement by PROLOGIS is that they have 100% leased their portfolio of properties in CANADA.   They have business in America (UGH!!!!  Probably TRIPLE UGH!!!!!  HORRID!!!!)

But one should not ignore the fact they do business in CHINA!   $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Yes folks.....  I am actually telling you to Watch List a REIT.   Am I out of my mind?  Or so crazy that I should be listened to by every money manager on Planet Earth?  [more]



Pullin the TARP off your Stocks (INTC)

July 13, 2010 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: INTC , YUM , KDP

Ok... I confess... Today was not a historic stock market move..... *sigh*  But.... It should have been.
We are Pulling the TARP that BEARS put over your Stocks off and revealing underneath a SPORTS CAR more beautiful than anything built in a DECADE!

(INTC):  "Biggest profit in a decade"

(CSX) (AA):  Post surprise earnings compared to whsiper/consensus expectations

(YUM):  Despite a weak America, they post up huge earnings for the quarter....

(DPS):  Announces a 3 year plan to buy back $2 Billion in total worth of their stock versus the previously announced $1 Billion.  This is on top of recently increasing their Dividend from 15 cents to 25 cents a share.

U.S.  reports a widening trade deficit.....    Bad for America?  Perhaps yes!   But... BULLISH for the rest of the world as America takes in a gigantic amount of Imports due to an increase in demand for them due to the Rising Dollar  / Lower Euro.... Lower Pound.....etc.

(F)  Ford posts a 5.05%  Stock Price move to the upside after analyst comments from people such as Jim Cramer.

Analysts expect Financial Earnings Reports to be BULLISHLY  good when they report.

BP successfully places the CAP over the Oil Leak and a crucial test is coming...

(ATVI)  Names new CEO of Publishing unit.....  Stock up 2.6% as investors treat the news with thumbs up.

ALCOA's  News Boosts Metals Stocks as Analysts are now Bullish on the Sector.

ALCOA's News Boosts HOUSING STOCKS.......   (SPF) jumps nearly 12.50%

IOC to announce a new with DOW Chemical  (DOW)    Shares up nearly 4%

MONSANTO  Rises as CITI says "Buy"

PC Sector rallies after hours due to INTC earnings  (MSFT)  Microsoft up 2.39% after hours.

AMAT boosts full year guidance and shares rise nearly 3% after hours trading.

STARWOOD Hotels (HOT) up nearly 4.5% and an additonal .79% after hours trading today after a series of bullish analyst opinions on the stock

DOLLAR Slides after Successful GREEK DEBT Auction

P&G Keeps Quarterly Dividend at 48 cents.

Ambitious Timetable for electronic medical records   

Fitch:  Acquisition has no effect on TYCO ratings

Crash Data Suggests DRIVER ERROR in TOYOTA Accidents

Senate Panel Puts Off United States Supreme Court Vote  (KAGAN)

Can you say..........................POSITIVE NEWS DAY!?!?!?!?!?!??!

So......where's the rally wall street?  Today's move was Weeeeaaaaaakkkkkk!!!!  [more]



Biggest RALLY in U.S. History Tomorrow?

July 12, 2010 – Comments (21)

Varchild2008 is sticking his head out.....

Since it is obvious the market is headed up because it should be after the shockingly solid earnings picture from a "usual earnings miss stock" in ALCOA today, then I am sticking my head out.


Ring in the 2010 election season tomorrow with 1 whallop of a rally...

Why do I predict his exactly?

ALCOA has said that ALL 3 SECTORS of its business:

A) Packaging

B) Construction

C) Commercial Auto

Created its excellent 22% rise in sales!

Of course.....  There's 1 obvous CAVEAT.....

ALCOA produced these sales figures in large part due to the ALUMINUM pricing falling off a cliff.
If your favorite 2011 model Truck suddenly is 25% cheaper to purchase and you are thinking of buying a truck..... you are no longer just THINKING about it anymore.

When prices drop......  STUFF finally gets bought.....  

So there is 1 CAVEAT.....  The BEARS could just short the heck out of any rally tomorrow on the grounds that this was a PRICING story and not an ECONOMIC RECOVERY story....


I believe they are solidly wrong..... and whatever stock is getting pummeled hardest by the WRONG-BUTT  Short sellers... I would buy buy buy buy......

Fact is....  The Federal Government can fall a-part but the bottom line is Private Business even under the WORST REGIME in U.S. HISTORY for Private Business always finds a way....

OIL MORATORIUM???? 6 MONTHS?????   No Biggee... Just pack up your RIG and set sail to EGYPT.

What ever damage OBAMA wroughts on the U.S. Private Secotor.... The Companies respond to it by finding business elsewhere in the World!

And that has been going on at record pace over the past 2 to 2.5 years.  We are in the midst of a SECERT SENSATIONAL  BULL MARKET ECONOMY tucked behind an Anti-Business, Anti-Economic Presidency and Regime and Government in Congress....

It's like putting TARP over your favorite Sports car.....  The TARP looks ugly.... but eventually when the TARP gets pulled off the vehicle... WOW!!!!!!  [more]



All Stars DEAD WRONG on (GAME)

July 08, 2010 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GAME.DL

All words/thoughts on (GAME) here are entirely based in OPINION and EMOTION.....

I no longer have money in GAME entirely because I needed the cash to buy my house.   Otherwise I would be accumulating shares of GAME given how cheap it is...ridiculously cheap....

But the funny thing is.... The Stock has stopped being a 5 Star Caps Pick and has been reduced down to a  4 Star Caps Pick..... All Stars are turning against (GAME) due to the prolonged lagging against the S&P 500.

All Stars are short term knee jerk reactors that can't stick with a stock beyond a week in my opinion.

Therefore.... As investors you have to look at Shanda Games from a Fundamentals perspective and you can easily see Shanda Games has a gigantic future ahead of it....


They recently announced that they are going to introduce a CHINA based "Mochi Games" in much the same vein as  .   is an American founded company that was doing quite well before they were acquired by Shanda Games.....  Shanda Games LOVES their acquisition....  Believe me.... This Mochimedia company is growing earnings/revenue numbers for Shanda Games.... it is a  WINNER of an acquisition.

In fact.... Varchild can testify that he spent $50 last quarter on  because of my addiction to one of their games.

Mochimedia is a website that promotes, markets their advertisement software to Flash based video gaming developers so that they can have a way to earn income..... In much the same way as "Google Ads" this is income for Mochimedia as well as the Game Developer to include the advertisements in the game.   for example has Game Advertisements for those who do not subscribe to CLUB POGO.

That is the same approach here with Mochimedia...       And that's not all they do....

They also sell Mochi  Coins  that you can use as Currency for any video game on their website that  sells content for the Coins...   

$$$  for Game Content  is much like XBOX360  DLCs..... It is in fact the same thing as them.

Put it this way...   Bullish on MOCHIMEDIA  =  BUY  (GAME).....  Ignore the All Stars on Motley Fool as they are FOOLs in the worse way..... Your job is to be a FOOL in the same vein as David and Tom Gardner.... And they too would see GAME as a Cash Cow China Gaming Stock set to earn big revenue off of their CHINA Mochi Games strategy  (in my opinion).  [more]



CBOU is priced to Armageddon!

July 06, 2010 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FRED , CBOU.DL

Bare with me in discussing my own STOCK again as I will cover (FRED) that is not in my portfolio later in this post....

1)  CBOU is in my portfolio....and in fact I joined in this morning's crazy initial rally before the huge plummet in CBOU this morning by accumulating 74 shares.... Up 9.5% only to end down over 5% today (a 14.5% pricing move from today's peak!!!).  

2)  Furthermore CBOU simply followed SBUX into the toilet which means this was a SECTOR Sell-off and not necessarilly any attempt to zero in on CBOU as some kind of "LOSER" in the coffee sector.

3)  CBOU at $8.62 does not really appear to be done selling off......  Could go back to a 7 handle if there is enough fear over the JUNE Services number showing that the economy is weakening.

4)  I can personally confirm that my last visit to CBOU at Royal Oak Michigan revealed a stunning lack of energy and excitement at the place....... Not even HARDLY close to the number of people I saw in the CBOU during Q1 of 2010.   This was inspite of their promotion/marketing of their new lineup of Lemonade, Iced Tea Drinks...(DELICIOUS as heck!!)    It didn't feel like a "Break Even" kinda day for the restaurant at Royal Oak Michigan.  *sigh*

5)  So..... we are pricing in Armageddon for the 2nd half of Caribou Coffee which means Wall Street doesn't care at all what the EPS / Earnings / Profit / Revenue were for last year.... So you can just completely ignore anything positive that happened last quarter and focus on the future.

NOW!  I have something to say about a stock NOT in my portfolio (FRED).

FRED dropped BIG as well as if it was a SBUX or a CBOU........ THIS IS NOT a premium priced goods restaurant company.

FRED is a discount merchandiser and a Pharmacy type business.... Unfortunately my opinion is that of a MORON!!!   MORON!!!  so do your own research especially since I do not have a FRED where I can go to and visit.

But I am nonetheless going to raise my "Watch List FRED" alert to a "BUY BUY BUY" alert on FRED if the stock drops to around $9.80 or less.

Get FRED at $9.80 and I feel strongly you'll thank me...  but I haven't visited FRED cause I do not live near one as far as I know.... So I can't channel check this..... So my opinion is rather rather very weak here... Take it for what it is worth.

I believe that when a PREMIUM shop gets obliterated in the stock market.... The DISCOUNT stores should be priced netural to higher depending on P/E and YIELD.  [more]



The "RENEGADE" Stock Market

July 05, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: FRED

"The 'RENEGADE" Stock Market      (A Spoof on the song "Renegade" from STYX)

Oh President, I'm in fear for my stocks when their falling just like rocks  
(KO) and (WHR) put an end to my winnings and I'm so far from my longs

The jig is up, the economy is out
The Market's apparently oversought
I'm the renegade who had it made
Until you took it away!
Portfolio has gone astray
This'll be the end today
Of the wealthy man

Oh President, It's been years on the trading floor with my clients future on my head
Obama said 'Starve em dead or alive' and it's for sure the market took a dive
Dear Obama I can hear you laughin', you're so scared of wall street wealth
Hangman is comin' down from the gallows and markets made all my clients broke

The jig is up, capitalism is done
Obama's finally destroyed me
I'm the renegade invested just for fun
(GOOG) used to be my savings
Forever more it has gone astray
Obama's having revenge today
On the wall street man

Oh President, I'm in fear for everyone's future from the farmer to the preacher
U.S. Steel has closed up shop and I'm so far underwater from my home

The jig is up, the Market is dead
Obama's finally destroyed us
I'm the renegade who bought calls on (FRED)
Retrieved it for a paultry sum
Forever more it has gone numb
This'll be the end today
Of the wealthy man"

NOTE TO investors:    My suggestion is to put (FRED) in your watch list.  It is a general mechandise franchise store that pays a small 1.5% yield dividend.  Beat earnings estimates last quarter for quite a long stream of not doing so....  [more]

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