In a recent www.gamespot.com Gamespot article concerning the inclusion of Kurt Kobain's "likeness" in Guitar Hero 5, a flood of video gamers screaming in anguish over the tackiness and lack of taste to include Kurt this was is spreading. They don't like the oversized mouth Kurt is getting and they don't believe Kurt would approve to being a video game character if he were alive today.
This just smells like "Teen Spirit" to me.... And it may smell like a lack of sales for Activision's highly anticipated Guitar Hero 5. Shares of ATVI fell today even inspite of Barron boasting and bragging on the stock BECAUSE OF Guitar Hero 5.
*Oops* I guess Barron's doesn't do any video game research before pushing their Rag out to be read by Wall Street Investors.
Anyone that is long on ATVI should most definitely be in tune to the forums that show a good array of opinions coming from Video Gamers that are deciding whether or not to fork over another $60.00 for another Music Game in Guitar Hero 5.
The opinions reflect that of a mini boycott. Thankfully, I don't see anything in them to suggest that ATVI in general is being boycotted. Rather I think Video Gamers MIGHT switch from Guitar Hero 5 to Rock Band or they MIGHT leave the Music Genre altogether.
The Investor Community wants to know if there is any life left in the Music Genre.....
There may not be... for Guitar Hero 5....
But...As an investor.... I am not worried about the ANXST of Kurt Kobain / Nirvana Fans disapproving of the inclusion of his likeness.
Because, ultimately... They will still COME...AS...They Are....AS...They Were....As Investors Want them to Be.... For Call of Duty and DJ HERO.
A Poor Showing from Guitar Hero 5 does not spell *DOOM* on ATVI earnings for the year.
It's just a set-back....In an otherwise solid video game publisher. [more]
Based on DPS Share Price action this week.... (DPS) gets a buy signal from me.
I say *good* that DPS finishes down at least SOMETHING... I wasn't hoping for $26.50 ish...or lower...
But... whatever... The Share price drops only 11 cents or so..basically was trading sideways all day long. I don't think Investors want to see this stock sell off much at all tomorrow.
Generally....over the past year the sell offs have mostly been 4 straight days of sell off and then back to buying!
This Stock just FEELS like it wants to go higher to me... So... what the heck.. Can't fault investors if they want to send the stock up and start doing some buying on FRIDAY to take the price up into the weekend.
Of course you would be doing it ahead of August Unemployment Numbers September 1st.
So, I'd still wait to see Pre-Market if there is going to be another good DIP to the stock before pulling the trigger.
Q3 earnings report is quite a ways out.... So I think this one goes to $28.00 easily between now and the conference call. At $26.86 you have a good $1.14 if I am right.. And certainly if the company does unexpectedly well and beats earnings estimates for Q3 then the price is justified to trade to $30.00. That would be $3.14 gain.
I've been telling all my Co-Workers about how great a stock DPS is... and Bottling Companys like (CCE) (PAS) (PBG) as well.... Bottlers kick butt....
I think buying DPS prior to Unemployment numbers and economic numbers on Sept. 1st is extremely important because the FEDs love to *fudge* the monthly unemployment statistics by extrapolating seasonal stuff to try to get a better number...
So... I'm not sure I can sit here and believe anymore that DPS is going to shrink it's RSI to 55%. [more]
What's wrong with investing in PENNY Stock (EAG)?
A) West Coast Partners dumping their shares is continuing again.. Due to a negotiate deal on Warrants their common share stake, however, has increased from 9 to 20 some million.
Nonethless, when the biggest share holder is dumping stock, regardless if for reasons that may/may not have SOMETHING to do with the future prospects of the company or the future prospects of the share price [more]
When it's time to start buying DPS again.... I'll post the announcement. [more]
FORD trades up 17 cents... Was as high as $7.65 so far today. That is a sign that "Smart Money" is once again swooping in and preventing the stock from dipping to a 6 handle.
Maybe eventually the stock dips to a 6 handle. But, apparently it won't do it at least until September when we get August's car sales figures.
I think investors are BULLISH on (F) Ford's foreign sales and want to believe those sales can offset some of the month to month DIPs in sales figures in America from the Cash for Clunker months of July and August.
So, if you are a BUY & HOLD (F) Ford investor and you want to *care* about the sales figures for August. I would focus your attention on the Foreign sales figures more than the U.S. ones.
Oh and for the naysayer that said that as a Buy and Hold investor I am sitting around only getting 2-3% gains...
Well... if that were true then why did my portfolio almost TRIPLE in value since March?
yes I am a buy and hold investor.... But not 100% so... I very...very...very...occasionally trade in and out of a stock. But, I've been doing a lot less trading and a lot more holding.
Buying and Holding is an ACTIVE activity anyhow... It's not a PASSIVE activity... That's why it gets beat up by Traders a lot. They think us BUY and HOLDERS just buy into a position and hold it forever never bothering to do any research on our companys..... never bothering to take advantage of Sell-Offs (Like FORD yesterday) that are unjustified... as well Euphoric BUYing like (DPS)...
When my stock is UP HUGE.... Sure... I can and sometimes do take profits....
When my stock is DOWN HUGE... I don't fret.... I step in and buy on the big dip... That's how I played (FRPT) TWICE.....Once after contract miss.... again after FRPT's earnings report dip. [more]
Ok.. (F) Ford took a dive almost back to where it was last week Tuesday. Does this spell the leg back down to $6.XX or even $5.XX where it was before the Q2 earnings report? Is this the end of the (F) Ford rally?
Well, if the reason for the sell off / profit taking / shorting of (F) Ford today was due to the end of Cash for Clunkers then NO.
What happens after Cash for Clunkers is the following scenario (which obviously is being completely ignored by the Mainstream Media and Wallstreeters today):
1) All Dealerships are sitting on the sidelines for quite awhile waiting for their Rebate money to arrive from the Government.
2) Once the Dealerships start to get their rebate cash, they will have to immediately pay their Payroll. It's a cash flow business. Payroll has to be paid.
3) Next, many of the Dealerships have little to no CARS left on their lots.
4) Gee... What's step #4?? What happens next after Payroll is paid...and Rebate $$$ is finally coming in...hmm.. Oh I know... The Dealerships have to RE-STOCK!
So guess what?? We are going to have a September RE-STOCKING Bull Run for all Auto companys.
Those predicting DOOM and GLOOM for September when Cash for Clunkers is gone are forgetting
about RE-STOCKING of INVENTORY. That could take the whole month or longer to do!
It could take ALL of the rest of this year for Dealerships to start RE-STOCKING their inventories...
We could have on our hands an Inventory Restocking Rally straight through for MONTHs!!!
Ultimately, it is about how long it takes these Dealerships to get their Rebate Money from the FEDs and in what condition they are after taking care of their Payroll and Expenses.
Dealerships have to start RE-STOCKING for January 2010 starting in September. Because of this we can no longer Trade (F) Ford based on what we think happens in Q3 or Q4. We are now trading on it based on what happens in 2010. September through December sales are going to be very meaningless as RE-STOCKING offsets any Month to Month dips in sales.
Wall Street won't really care then... about anything except Next Year.
Will Next Year be better than this year was? You don't sell-off (F) Ford in anticipation of a miserable Q1 2010 until February 1st or whenever it is we get January's Sales Numbers.
So there's no reason here NOT to still be a buyer of FORD... Not until February! [more]
That's right.. I have to step in and shout *STOP* cause no one else is yet. I am doing this on my BIGGEST investment in my portfolio... The Best Stuff on Earth (DPS) is getting a Varchild2008 Downgrade.. Just as I downgraded ATVI months ago when it struck $13.00 before it's Q2 earnings...
I am downgrading (DPS) from my previous STRONG BUY opinion to now a SELL. [more]
(THEORY) The day the Federal Government *finally* goes Bankrupt is in my opinion the day the Market, DOW, Nasdaq, S&P 500 would skyrocket up. I mean aren't people just a bit tired of all of these relentless Spending Scenarios the Government is throwing at us day in and day out?
1) Cash for Clunkers
2) Cash for Dishwashers
3) Cash for Air Conditioners and Furnaces / Heaters
4) Cash for Caskets
5) Cash for Wild Horses (eerraaaaaaah horsy noises: Errrraaah)
Hey.. I'll pitch in some CASH for Federal Government Bankruptcy...
I already bought a large Red Wine Bottle to celebrate with.
With the federal Government Bankrupt that would mean Americans depending on themselves to succeed and whenever Americans are forced to depend on themselves instead of the next FED bailout, that is when we will turn this economy around in a hurry. You want to see Job Creation?
1) How about businesses no longer having to FORK over $100,000 - $1,000,000 a year on Lobbying?
2) How about businesses no longer having to hire lawyers to fend off E.P.A. and other Government organizations sticking their noses in places where it doesn't belong????
3) Want to see Job Creation? The day the Federal Government goes BUST is the day our TAXES go (Federally) go to ZERO, ZIP, NADA. How many jobs ya think will be created when SMALL BUSINESS suffering under an 85% Taxation Rate (when you combine all forms of taxation) to an overnight plunge of around 30% or less?? Where only STATE/County/City taxes matter?
Rrrrriiiggghhhtttt.... So.... The next time anyone wonders how much the Stock Market will plunge if the WORST CASE SCENARIO happens to our precious Federal Government, I will scoff and laugh and point out all of the advantages for Businesses that will happen on that day.
So, I can't wait for that to happen. Maybe our MESSIAH Pres. Barack Obama will make it happen when he comes back from Martha's Garden?
P.S. I am strongly recommending (FIZZ). They report earnings soon. [more]
PNX: Not sure what I think about it.. other than What the heck????
this is still a $1.XX stock... closed up 18 cents or 10%. Despite climbing 10% it is down year to date by about 34.4%.
The company is a Life/Personal/Commercial Insurance Co. that has MISSED earnings estimates 6 quarters in a row. The stock price has fallen off a cliff to reflect all of these earnings misses.
The previous quarter was the first NON-GAAP quarter in awhile in which the company reports a LOSS....They have reported losses in multiple quarters on a GAAP basis.
This last one was in the amount of 14 cents a share or 96 cents a share GAAP loss.
Nonetheless, Analysts are expecting at least a 5 cent EPS profit in the very next quarter.
Can this company come out of the massive DIVE and become profitable in the next quarter on a NON-GAAP basis?
If so then you are looking at today's price of $1.98 and the price of profitability being around
$5.XX a share... That is a 2.5 times performance.... Whatever you put into the stock could DOUBLE AND A HALF in exactly 3 months or whenever they report earnings for this quarter.
Of course (PNX) missed expectations.... But I base the 5 cent EPS from the Listed LOW expectation on my Scottrade chart screen. Historically this WAS a $15.XX stock.
Phoenix Company's website: http://www.thephoenixcompany.com/index.cfm [more]
12:01p.m. (DPS) hits 52-week high! So..... Let's do the Varchild 52-week High Dance! Come on! It's easy! 1...2...3...GO!
Just pick your laptop up...Go on and raise it over your head! Who cares if ya got a Toughbook....Who cares if ya got a Notebook.... Don't gotta a Laptop then grab on to your Desktop!
Raise it over your head!! Now shake your hips side to side..... Careful now not to drop your computer to the floor...As we spin 360 degrees!!! Ready for more??? oh yea...52-week high dance..
Now open your Front Door! Yes..That's right.. Gotta step outside.... Still carrying your computer over your head..... Run as fast as you can and perform a "baseball" slide!!! Do it on your front lawn!
Then get up and start shouting! What's that your arms getting sore? Just set your computer down now and quit being a bore!
Raise your voice now and jump!! 4 mores times just jump as high as you can! Don't be obscene or obtuse... No need to shout out Obscenities! Just shout out "52-week High Dance!!" as loud as ya can...
If the neighbors start walkin out to watch ya Dance.... Then start spinning around as if in your in a trance.
Should they dial their iPhones or Blackberrys to call the guys in White Coats to take ya away....
Well...When they show up then that's ok.... Just keep spinning till they stuff ya in the car....Even with the straight jacket you can still SHOUT "YAY"!! Until they duck tape your mouth shut that is...
Yeeeaah! It's the 52-week High dance!!! I waited for this for over a year.... Now I gotta get my GROOVE ON..... Cause (DPS) ain't done goin higher this year....not yet!
-----THE END [more]
The Movie Industry was a complete disaster. CNBC was right there declaring a "TREND" was forming. People would rather RENT and buy DVDs than to spend $8 + $5 for Popcorn + $3 for Pop to go to the AMC, MJR, STAR, EMAGINE theatres.
Movie Industry was *DOOMED* *DOOMED* I tell ya!
Consumer spending and jobs were falling off a cliff since 2nd half 2008. Yet, in 2009 the Movie Industry saw a huge resurrection! Now everyone on CNBC is talking about how much money and revenues are flowing to Movie Houses for movies like "Gran Torino," "Harry Potter," "Transformers," "Ice Age" etc.
One day they are declared dead... Now they are declared to be AWASH in cash.
hmm.... Buy Low..Sell High right?
CNBC analysts want you to AVOID buying Video Game stocks as they sit in their LOW, LOW, FLAT-LINED share prices....
They want you to only BUY video game stocks after the market goes from BUST to BOOM.
What?? By then you'll be buying Video Game stocks at their HIGHs.... And what? Sit there and wait for another BUSTED year to SELL them off?
Buy High.....Sell Low..... CNBC is pure Garbage!!!
I actually smile when seeing these 29% declines year over year.... It means share prices for video game stocks should at least trade HALF THAT when we start to go into a GOOD year for the sector.
This is why Investors always look for "Turn-a-round" stories. How many articles were there thus far about telling you to buy busted company's like ETFC E*TRADE????? How many told you (F) FORD was cheap at $1.01?
How many said Buy the BANKS as they hit their lowest point back in March????
BUY LOW.... SELL HIGH..... .Works everytime it is tried.
So, why is CNBC telling you as an investor to BUY HIGH and SELL LOW when it comes to the Video Game sector?
If 2010 is to be worse than 2009....Then that just means doing more buying as share prices get even cheaper. So what....
Company's like ERTS and ATVI are so big that they can get through a recessionary period like we are in today and come out strong in the end. ATVI is the #1 publisher and is my investment.
I chose ATVI for its top quality product franchises + insanely good balance sheet.
So... JIM CRAMER (AGAIN) tells investors to AVOID (ATVI).... Lightning round?
Avoid a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in CASH on the balance sheet during a Recession in which it's share price can't break $13.00??
Gee.... Think it will break $13.00 when the Video Game industry starts to look like this year's Movie Industry? [more]
1) In Q2 BAC produces a LOSS... a BIG LOSS... Offset by a multi-billion dollar sell off in a stake in a Chinese Bank. They can't do that again. C.E.O. is BLEAK when it comes to the future of his bank and the economy.
2) TCF BANK produces an 8 cent eps PROFIT.... The future looks pretty good with finally an increase in checking fees which makes up a big chunk of their business thanks to their June program to give people $50 or so for opening up a checking account.
So after the Q2 earnings reports you would think TCF's share price spiked up to $16.XX a share while (BAC) plummets to $12.XX or lower? Right? Make sense to me.....
Yet instead we get the opposite. And why? Cause BAC is a large cap and TFC is just a regional bank and regional banks don't deserve the same P/E multiple as Large Banks cause.. cause..cause... well no real reason why that it is.. it just is...
So yea.. I am a bit TEED OFF and Disgruntled over this... I dumped Bank of Collapse after making a big profit on it in favor of TCF. Now TCF gets nothing while the complete disaster that is BAC gets a share price boost and a Hedge Fund buying millions of shares.
BAC is TARPED.
TCF has no Tarp... They did accept the Tarp but they did nothing with it other than hand it right back. TCF never got into subprime mortgages.... They never got into debt swap derivative junk cess pool.... They were just as innocent in it as Comerica Bank.
So why the unfair treatment???? Why the BACKWARDS attitude from Wall Street?
NIHK = POOF! It's gone.... No more.... POOF! Just like that.... In my portfolio... then gone...
Alas.. Poor... Nighthawk... Pretty much a MIRACLE that I managed to grab $273 of my money out before the share price shot to near ZILCH and the stock thrown onto the Pink Sheets today.
*Sigh* But, if this is any evidence that investing in Penny Stocks doesn't work.... (SWTX) has so far been a huge success.
Southwall Technologies has more than made up the loss I took in Nighthawk.
So, this does not change my mind any. I think a grab bag of penny stocks will result in a GAIN overall. I am only against exclusively investing in Pennies... But adding some Pennies to overall portfolio is well...perfectly fine. You may find a winner. Finding 1 winner out of 3 that you grab is well worth the trouble.
So.. Nighthawk's dead..... Now I am left with 2 penny stocks... (SWTX) and (EAG),
SWTX is a huge success... that stock has escaped back above a Buck and continues to hang tough. I increased my stake a few weeks back during its ultimate rally from 50 cents a share to trade at $1.24 today.
EAG (American Defense Systems)... Well.. I have nothing to add or say... As long as the company continues to have this frightening *SHADOW* hovering over it... it won't matter that the company produced Record Earnings in Q2. No one will care... Investors won't care...
I don't care.. I mean... I'll keep buying this at 50 cents a share... Purchased 510 shares today just to sorta give the stock a "love tap" but... Beyond that..
Investors are faced with a company that is perpetually not profitable as long as there is an insurmountable obstacle of EXPENSE to pay West Coast Partners their negotiated payment.
The company is not even confident they can pay 1/2 the amount by the end of this year....
Much less all of it.
But, yet... I find myself INCREASING my share count rather than decreasing it.. All on pure speculation. EAG is not a bad company.... It's just in a pretty bizzarre financial situation right now.
Of course, the way I see it... What's so wrong with a little Share Dillution? Let's cut the share price in 1/2 to 25 cents a share and get the payment paid off.
Investors would feel immediate pain beyond belief in a Secondary Offering at 25 cents a share... But, once the BLEEDING from the share dillution stops.... It will be all worth it over time with the *SHADOW* finally gone.
Ultimately, the company's got to SELL SOMETHING to make the payment. And I'd rather they did not have to sell off APSG to do it. (F) FORD has survived inspite of several share dillutions.
Share Dillution is nothing against the prospect of paying off the DEBT and cleaning up the balance sheet. So OSHKOSH Contract or no Contract... Let's get this DEBT put away before the next Earnings Report in October/November.
Oh and (ATVI) bit of news... Wolfenstein releases today. So far the Critics are beating it up mostly for its rather incompleteness. The game is clearly an excellent video game so I am buying it today, but the product does have the apperance of incompleteness.... I own Baldur's Gate Dark Alliance II and that game was tremendously incomplete looking.... But it was extremely fun.
Wolfenstein's negatives do not detract me from plucking down another $60 on another video game.
Raven Software tried to do MORE with this title than the predecessor and simply didn't have as much time as it would have taken to really flesh out the NEW STUFF.... However, they made some spectacular missions... And Wolfenstein used to be nothing but Mission Based.
Now Wolfenstein has RPG elements + Open World aspect + Side Quests. All new stuff.
Knock a game for adding new stuff? Because the new stuff isn't complete enough? Nah... I ain't worried. [more]
CNBC: "Market fell more than 100 points today.... This is a Trader's Market."
CNBC: "Market has gone up for 2 straight days now and this is evidence that we are in a Trader's Market."
CNN: "President Obama just spoke about the Trader's Market at Wall Street as a cause for concern..."
MSNBC's Chris Matthews: "I keep getting a tingling sensation over this Trader's Market on Wall Street."
FOX BUSINESS: "Is this still a Trader's Market? Is Buy and Hold dead? Buy and hold never works right?"
CNBC: "Buy and Hold is a STUPID strategy. It never works and that's why only professionals make money. HOGS get slaughtered!"
JIM CRAMER's MAD MONEY: "As soon as a stock's fundamentals change you pull your money out!! It's not BUY and HOLD... Buy and hold never works! That's a strategy giving to you by a bunch of corrupt money Guys who want you to lose your money! It's BUY and HOMEWORK.
CALLER: "What do you think about such and such a stock?"
JIM CRAMER: "That company has had a REAL BAD Quarter. You can't hold onto the stock with a quarter like that. This one is a SELL SELL SELL!!! Find something better and quick!"
(DPS) Pre-Market: BID $26.10 ASK: $26.25 Highest Closing Price ever: $26.50
3rd Quarter 2008 was a 6 Cent, BIG earnings miss..... Hansen Natural Corp. pulled out of DPS distribution sometime in Q4 2008.
Earnings Miss + Fundamentals Changed.....
And..... Yours truly.....HELD.
So whose advice do you trust? Answer? TRUST YOURSELF!
DOLLAR up this morning while Stock Markets worldwide are crashing. Dollar was going DOWN when we climbed our way to DOW 9000 / S&P 1000 / NASDAQ 2000.
Is this a long term trend? Everytime the Dollar goes up, we crash? Everytime it goes down, Markets Skyrocket up?
If so then so what... I choose the DOLLAR! I am entirely on the long side and this means massive losses in my portfolio. And yet I don't care.... I choose the DOLLAR!
Even though the Dollar's strength seems unhinged from reality and unhinged from the massive Debt America keeps accelerating month after month.....
We've had massive debt acceleration generated on long term Entitlements under Former President BUSH, Former President CLINTON, Former President "other" BUSH, former President Jimmy Carter, and current president Barrack Hussein Obama.
The only president whose Debt was NOT related to the entitlement society was former president Ronald Reagon.
Liberals rant and rave all day about Reagon's debt... But, at least his debt was SHORT TERM spending related.... It was entirely based on winning the Cold War.... It was military spending.
The difference between Military Spending and Entitlement Spending is that the Military Spending is like going to the store and buying a Microwave.... Sure...It's debt... But, it's debt that CAN be paid off over time.
ENTITLEMENT Debt like "Prescription Drug Coverage on Medicare" is a debt that accelerates at a pace beyond what is realistically possible to pay off. It is a form of DEBT that CAN NOT be paid off easily if at all!
I'd rather have the EASY SHORT TERM DEBT of President Ronald over the Mission Impossible Long Term Acclerated Debt of the current Administration's pursuit of Government Run / Managed / Funded Health Care / Welfare / Cap and Tax Oh My. [more]
TFirst in a comment to a recent Blog Post of mine wrote me a question asking,
"What will happen with DPS as Sugar Prices continue to rise?"
Well.... DPS and Coca-Cola and Pepsi are all ahead of the game. They all are slowly jumping on board 2 trends:
Trend 1) "STEVIA" This is an Herb that was recently discovered in Africa. It may be difficult to re-produce beverages using Stevia and still retain the same taste as the Sugar equivalent beverage.
However, Dr. Pepper Snapple Group already announced earlier this year their intent to produce and market a beverage using STEVIA as their Sugar replacement. This beverage is called "ALL SPORT." It may very well become the first drink to use Stevia. Perhaps it will be sold in stores near you in 2010 / 2011.
Trend 2) Health conscious consumers means increased demand for Healthier beverages.
Pepsi + Coke + DPS have all been pushing healthy versions of their drinks.
The biggest thing going with DPS is their Snapple Makeover. They took out almost all of their SUGAR content right out of their Juice.
These drinks and others all have 3 or less grams of Sugar per bottle. That is a huge drop from the nearly 30 grams of Sugar in the original juice drinks.
So, if the All Natural lineup of Snapple starts to get noticed for its Health Conscious and almost Sugar-less approach for Consumers, then we may see the Sugar Packed Snapple get phased out.
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group is already setting themselves up well by decreasing the content of Sugar in their Drinks.
Coca Cola's COKE ZERO also removes the Sugar.
Beverage company's have seen the writing on the wall regarding commodities and have taken steps years ago to address inflationary impact to their commodities costs.}
So, do not let anyone make you *scared* of Sugar Prices.... We are still a Far Cry away from 1970s era Peak Sugar prices. [more]
August EXPLOSION to the upside in Consumer Spending.. Now at levels in the TRIPLE DIGITS folks!!! TRIPLE DIGITS!!!
Can you say..... "Cash for Clunkers?" "Garage Sales?" "Estate Sales?"
"Madden NFL 2010 Video Game?" "Pent up Demand sending shoppers bolting to the Mall instead of FROM the Mall?"
Whatever the explanation is... GALLUP is seeing $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (Dollars) as far as the eye can see.
I like to call this the..... CONSUMER SPENDING **** SHORT SQUEEZE ****
If it's any consolation it was a mere 2 weeks ago that I went to the biggest Mall in Michigan and discovered the mall PACKED.... JAM PACKED full of Shoppers.... Great Lakes Crossing was extremely tough to walk around in as it was extremely tough to park your car... it was PACKED.. Crowded!!!
And it's just AUGUST folks????
My theory is that the ANGST and the UPROAR against "Barack Hussein O." is having some influence on people to go shopping..... People are starting to pull out their wallets...
They are ENERGIZED out there against the Health Care bill and that's having a positive impact on loosening wallets as shoppers take out their energy on shopping for things they put off shopping for for months.
Yes folks!!! The SPENDING you all think won't happen this Christmas.... WILL!
This is reminiscient of Christmas 2003. Everyone declared that Christmas to be a Sales disaster when in fact Sales were exploding to the up side that year... [more]
Since I'm an investor that values DPS as a Retirement Stock and has accumulated thus far 476 shares of DPS, I have to issue a HUGE WARNING ever since the insanely positive earnings report.
Why? Cause as investors the worst thing that can happen is to get all euphoric and feel all IMMORTAL over having X number of shares of DPS. I mean I feel like sticking my tounge out at every single investors that DOES NOT have any shares of DPS.
But, the reality is DPS can and will produce a disappointing Earnings Quarter. This normally wouldn't be a big deal for the company to do so. We are in a recession after all.... So, who cares if Q3 somehow is bad? Right????? *WRONG*
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group has produced 4 Earnings Beats and 1 Earnings Miss. This is a track record of 4 out of 5. That has finally given (DPS) the coveted "Momentum" status.
It is super rare..... but tremendous amounts of fun to have your slow growth stock suddenly sent into ORBIT and given the blessing by Wall Street as a "Momentum Stock."
But, things can quickly get waaaaaay out of hand. They can get waaaaaay ahead of themselves....
DPS can be priced in the same manner as (HANS)....What can happen litterally is DPS will be sent up $10 from now to 6-12 months out (for example only) and then when DPS produces a MISS it will send the stock price back a full year.. maybe even SEVERAL YEARS of gains completely wiped out.
That's right.. While you are sitting there enjoying the stock getting bid up like crazy....while occasionally adding to your overall stake....thinking you can buy and increase your stake at virtually any Share Price.....Fire At Will the BUY button..... What not..... All it takes is for 1 earnings Miss to completely WIPE YOU OUT and set the stock price back to Square 1.
Is that fair???? NO!!
But Wall Street and Fairness are Oxymorons. Incompatible. Stock Analysts always tend to get overly bullish on a stock and then immediately turn overly bearish on the slightest disappointment.
A Long term Investor must then have a plan... What to do about this?
Sit and stew?? Whine???? Cry???? Call your Mommie??? Suck your Thumb???
No.... There are solutions to prepare yourself for the next *CRISIS* of Panic Selling and Panic Shorting against your investment....
1) Seriously start buying some PUTS... Next Week Monday is a good day to create some solid PUTs out at least 6 months from now... Price it at $24.00 a share. Cause an earnings miss could send this to $20.00 easily. You can just sit and hope/expect $30.00 a share to happen when road blocks can get in your way.. things can happen...
"SNAPPLE Sales are still HORRIBLE!!!" A turn-a-round on Snapple Sales will take some time.
The beverage has hit bottom in June but a sales increase will be slow going!
2) BUY the Beverage Company's products. Don't just hold onto some shares while completely ignoring the beverages the company sells.. I don't invest in things long term that I don't buy.
I stock my Refridgerator full of Dr. Pepper Snapple Drinks. Given the Success story with DPS I am seriously thinking of switching to 6 PACKs of Snapple instead of Singles. It seems to me from the conference call that DPS does better if I go out and buy the 6 Packs instead of the Singles. [more]
(PEP) versus (KO)
*Baff* *Biff* *oof* *smack*
Winner? (PEP) with more than a $12 gain above the stock's 52-week low versus KO's slightly above $10 off the 52-week low.
(DPS) versus (HANS)
AAaaarggh!!! Yipe Yipe Yipe Yipe...
Announcer, "Sorry folks... Hansen Natural Corp has just left the building... Apparently scared of the competition!"
(DPS) more than $13 off the 52-week low. (HANS) Just over $12 off the 52-week low.
Here's another comparison between (DPS) and (HANS)
DPS 2Q: EPS: 62 cents
HANS 2Q: EPS: 60 cents
*oooooo* *Loud cheering for DPS*
As for the Q2s for (PEP) = $1.02 but that was a DROP of 1 EPS Year over Year
(KO) = $.92 DROP of 9 EPS year over year.
Given this picture... Out of the following beverages.... Which one was the better buy?
It is clear.... That the share price action coming out of DPS along with the fundamentals is the clear winner! I mean clearly folks... It's just so crystal clear! clearly....
Only DPS & HANS have produced year over year beats on earnings....
So... Here's my ranking:
DPS #1 (for now)
HANS #2 (Don't ignore the fact that HANS beat DPS in Q1 and in 1H of this year overall)
KO #4 (Stay away from this)
Jim Cramer telling investors to buy PEPSI instead of either HANS or DPS has absolutely screwed investors badly so far... However, Varchild2008 DOES like what PEPSI is doing with their business and you can't count Pepsi out yet. Coca-Cola is last place for good reason.. They can't get anything going. 9 cents a share DROP? That is a plummet!
The stock to absolutely stay away from for now is (COCA-COLA).
Ok.. I am biased.... HANS investors will chime in probably stating the fact that for the 1st half of 2009 (HANS) has a few cents more earnings than (DPS). [more]
Reading through some articles on DailyKos, I ran into something quite amusing. Amusing because it's a bunch of liberals labeling the GOP and describing the GOP exactly as we described the LIBERAL base when President Bush was President.
It's no different!! The Liberals think us GOPers or Conservatives or Neo-Cons or whatever label floats your boat to describe someone whose in favor of Small "NO DEBT" "NO SOCIALIST" Government, are too far to the right such that we would get rid of our own kind in order to remodel the Republican Party after Ronald Reagan's Image.
Well... I am here to say that this is 100% true. I can't personally stand AT ALL anyone in the Republican Party that is not willing to uphold Conservative Principles and Republican Party Platform Values. I can't stand them.... I sure as heck want to "PRIMARY OUT" any Olympia Snowe, John McCain, George Voinovich style RINOs....
RINOs are absolutely worthless to me as an American Citizen AND as a Stock Market Investor.
Here's a passage of one of the articles currently on the Daily Kos;
"Isakson is up for re-election in 2010, and he knows how wingnutty the base is. He has to play to the Palin wing or he will get primaried. That is how crazy the GOP is these days. "
In the above passage the author is blaming Isakson as the one who authored the Death Panel section in 1233.
I have no idea if this "CLAIM" has any truth to it... If it does then someone like Isakson would certainly not deserve my vote.
Interesting how the same author though fails to point out how the Democrats SUPPORT Section 1233 "The DEATH Panel" section.
They BLAME the Republican Isakson for writing it and never bother acknowledge the fact that the Democrats across the board seem to have no issues with it. President Obama doesn't have any issues with SECTION 1233..... He Defended 1233!!!
Listen up..... The "TEA BAGGERS" aren't just Conservative.... That is the dirty little secret you won't ever read/hear about on Daily Kos.... the TEA BAGGERS are simply those people who no longer believe the politicians in Congress Represent anyone but themselves! PERIOD...
Democrat...Libertarian...Green Party...Republican.... Or Agnostic.... The reality is the same... Any one of them can be a TEA BAGGER.... ANY ONE.... It just takes waking up to the fact that not even DAILY KOS is behind the Health Care Bill....
They would not be writing these types of Articles if they were.
DAILY KOS DOES NOT SUPPORT OBAMA's HEALTH CARE BILL..... It's not expressly written anywhere... It's pure gut feeling based on reading the angle that the liberals are taking...
It is clear the Liberals see PROBLEMS with the bill... I mean... they want to BLAME ISAKSON (Republican) for Section 1233.... They would not do that if they thought 1233 was a great section of the bill!
DAILY KOS DOES NOT LIKE THIS BILL AT ALL
But.... Instead of fighting to get the bill changed.... Daily Kos Authors just want to try and blame the bad parts on the Republicans.... [more]
In my portfolio, I have since JANAURY 2009...Maybe since October 2008, began dumping stocks in favor of others to retool and rebuild my portfolio in order to factor in the DEATH of the U.S. Federal Government.
It works like this:
1) SunPower: Should I invest? Can they function without assistance from the Federal Government? NO THEY CAN'T????? Welp... Good Bye Sun Power.... Not Investing...
2) United Health Group: If the Federal Government DID NOT EXIST......... How would that or would it at all damage United Health Group? If it would damage them, how badly? Could they still survive and function an be a worthy investment still????
If so.... then ok..I'll think about buying shares of UNH..... If not... WELP... I'll look elsewhere.
So.. You have to wonder why I still have Defense Stocks in my portfolio right? Why?
Why (FLIR) or (FRPT) or (EAG) or Ad Nauseum?
Simply answer is that they all have a Foreign Business... They all are soliciting for Foreign Military Contracts...
Without the U.S. Federal Government, these companys can still have business from foreign governments that may still exist.... I mean does the Brazil Government exist if the U.S. Federal Government went under tonight???? YES!!!! No one just up and dies cause someone else did.
So, Brazil is still going to exist.... Citizens of Brasil will buy American Cars.... China will buy Buick and Ford vehicles... (F) FORD can still exist even if the U.S. Federal Government went under cause they can focus on selling their Cars to Foreign Nations....
And in Ireland get a better Tax Rate to boot!
If you seriously believe your Company in your Portfolio DOES NOT NEED the U.S. Federal Government to survive.... Then why are you FRIGHTENED???
Uhm... That was a question to myself.
By their chinny chin chin they all FLIPPED!! on my FRPT!!! How dare they them rascals!
Varchild2008 just reports here for disclosure purposes that he bought 120 shares of FRPT as soon as that stock dipped to $4.15 or about 18.40% drop from yesterday's close.
Oh and I ain't done if this goes 50 cents lower... I got more money now that I sorta am bailing on my Savings Account goal for the year.
I don't care how long it takes... months....years even....for the share price to recover.
This company is undeserving of the extent of this punishment!
They increased revenue beyond expectations and have grown their CASH + securites by 10.8$ million. Clearly, a company with over $100 million is not a company that deserves to be sent back down to a 3 handle or lower...back where it started from last year.
FRPT is a growth story and Varchild2008 doesn't shy away from growth stories.
Just as I am NOT admitting yet that I am long term wrong on STXS....
Nothing horribly wrong with STXS's earnings report either. I am seeing a trend...
A trend is forming that slightly disappointing earnings reports leading to mega sell-offs....
I donno..maybe I'm crazy... But this Stock Market looks to be in full SELL-OFF mode of late. [more]
The Afghanistan War is proving how horribly incompetent President Obama CONTINUES to be as Commander in Chief. You see.. His Incompetence started in the very beginning of Obama's presidency in not being able to convince a single nation, a single NATO Ally to increase their troop levels 1 soldier... NOT 1 SOLDIER!!!
Where are the Anti-War Protestors?????? There sure were Hot and Heavy when things were going badly in Iraq and totally absent now that things are going extremely badly today....
What changed?????? Oh... That's right.... ANTI-WAR Protestors are also SUPER-CHARGED TURBO ENGINE ULTRA Karl Marx Communists.... And they don't care how many Soldier's lives are dying due to the Incompetence of President Obama.... Just as long as they get their Socialist PET PROJECTS and STIMULUS CASHOLA stuffed down their pants....
These Anti-War Protestors litterally consist of Socialist and Communist Organizations that have almost always surfaced at Anti-War Protests when the President was Bush. They consisted of toddlers playing "DEAD" blocking Government Building Entrances..... Blocking Much Needed Supplies to our Soldiers such as Body Armor....
These Anti-War Protestors do not actually care about the lives of 1 single United States Soldier.
They only care about pushing their Socialist Agenda down American People's Lives....
Where are the Anti-War Protestors?????? If they seriously cared there should be a HELL STORM of Angry Protest going on right outside my Window.... Seriously.. There should be.... RIGHT NOW!
Yet.... All I see is absolute Silence.... Nothing..... OBAMA is commander in chief so the Protest Signs have been Recycled for Compost... Even the ever present "TRUTHERS" are at least poking around alive and well pumping their Anti-Bush BDS rhetoric on Motley Fool Blogs from time to time.
At least I hear from the TRUTHERS still... I just don't see a single ANTI-WAR Protestor ever since the Messiah got Elected thanks to ACORN.
Meanwhile my confidence in Secretary Robert Gates has fallen off a cliff ever since Gates decided we were spending too much money on Defense and afterwards said we didn't need any more than 22,000 Army Soldiers by 2012.
The Reality is this war is being conducted ON THE CHEAP while $1.8 TRILLION is being dumped straight down the TOILET in the form of Stimulus Spending.
Stimulus Spending???? Stimulus Spending is more important than the Lives of American Soldiers?????
What STIMULUS SPENDING anyhow??? I don't see any STIMULUS!!
Obama's idea of Stimulus is spending upwards of $17 MILLION on re-building, re-branding, his www.recovery.gov website.. Seriously.... IT LITTERALLY WAS SPENT!!! To RE-CREATE HIS PROPAGANDIST WEBSITE!!
Now Obama's spending CASHOLA pumping up more PROPAGANDIST websites for his Health Care Take Over...
Obama already spends an Undisclosed amount of American CASH on 32+ CZARs!!
WHAT STIMULUS????? The only one getting stimulated is the U.S. FEDERAL Government while the American People are left picking up the Scraps..... We get the back of the SOUP LINE and a Phone Call that another U.S. Superhero has died today and President OBAMA gets 8 Brand new FIGHTER JETS approved by CONGRESS + MILLIONS of DOLLARS spent on Vacation Trips, Martha's Garden Trips, Flights over New York City to "Take Photo Ops" and God only knows what else he has spent money on.
He certainly hasn't spent 1 penny on improving the lives of the people he promised he would improve.
I'd rather that Stimulus money be used on UP ARMORING more of our Vehicles in Afghanistan and Iraq.... How about buying some HMEEs which save the lives of soldiers who would be killed still riding SEEs today..... Instead of $17 Million spent on building a bigger and better WWW.RECOVERY.GOV?????
Check it.. In the Month of July.. Around JULY 10th. A Signed Contract was done to fund re-creating Obama's Precious PORK-ULOUS Web Site. [more]
*Warning* I am long the stock at 250 shares. I will be fair though.
FRPT's C.E.O. has repeatedly said that their Q2 earnings is expected to be a bit low, mostly due to the high expense they took to go after the Billion + contract. They missed the contract....
So, when they report earnings you almost have to take out their huge expense in their Radio Advertisements + Bidding War + etc. in order to get a real clue about Q2. So, don't expect much of anything regarding Q2.
This is really about their existing products / programs that continually receive contracts as Afghanistan activity continues to ramp up.
22,000 Troops will be added to the Army's force by 2012.
It's safe to speculate that if we are adding 22,000 to the Army's numbers by 2012 in Afghanistan then (FRPT) along with defense stocks in general that sell to the Army or perform Maintenance/Support for the Army on vehicles/equipment/weapons/armor are going to benefit in the years to come.
So, with all that said.... Here's a simple set of arithmetic on FRPT's stock price at $5.12.
Let's assume FRPT deserves no better than an increase to a 14 P/E. That increase won't happen overnight, but let's assume sometime in 2010 / 2011 it gets to a 14 P/E and hovers around there for awhile...
What does a 14 P/E mean for FRPT in purely 2009 EPS numbers?
Well.. Given the 11 cent Q1 earnings + 7 cent consensus Q2 + 16 cent consensus expected Q3 earnings + last year's 17 cent Q4 = an eps of 51 cents.
I'm going to go ahead and shave off a few cents on Q2 with an expected miss by 3 cents a share.
Therefore....2009 eps expectations would be 48 cents.
P/E 14 against 48 cents a share = $6.72.
Q: Why 14 P/E the stock?
A: Aerospace and Defense Sector's Average P/E is 13.6 (add in the future 2010 growth and it's definitely a 14 P/E average)
So...even with ridiculously pessimistic view on 2009 earnings + not bothering to factor in future growth the stock price of $5.12 is more than a $1.50 oversold.
Go ahead though.... Do the math with a cheaper P/E. Try 12..even.... You'll still see the stock at a $6 handle.
WHIRL you look at that? (WHR) keeps getting it's share price pushed sky high day in and day out seemingly to no end.
9.09? 9.09 is exactly 1 months worth of market trading MINUS labor day away.
Investors are not only confident....not only fearlesss..... But they have entered euphoric gutsy-ness.
This is a WHIRLWIND of expected growth coming out of a sector deemed DEAD and DYING...That being the Consumer Sector.... The Non Descretionary sector. It's getting bought harder than ALSTRY's THESIS told to a Crowd of Pessimists who recently lost their Job and suffered a House Fire. [more]
YES! Folks..... Took awhile...Cause I didn't want see it or want to believe it.... But, if you log onto
And if you SQUINT real real hard.... yes... you can draw an upward sloping curve from MARCH to AUGUST 6th.... Upward Sloping Curve on Consumer Spending!
The March bottom on Consumer Spending is:
3-DAY $48...... 14-Day $54
Today we have:
3-Day $56 (+8 since bottom) 14-Day $58 (+4 since consumer spending bottomed).
Can we blame this entirely on the rise of Gasoline Prices?
Or is Varchild2008's 2009 Shopping Spree Craze entirely the cause for this?
It's ALL ME!!! right?
NOTE: GALLUP doesn't count home buying, Car buying, or Bill Paying. [more]
*Ouch* Investors dive bombed the STXS and Standard and Poors came out keeping their bearish stance (HOLD rating) and their $5 price target. [more]
Sorry :-( Another ATVI blog post... This one's quick....
ATVI is king and EA is in deep trouble for 1 simple reason....
ATVI has nailed to the wall what Video Gamers want by knowing who video gamers are....
Video gamers are "High School" CLIQUEs.
You have the Comic Book + Magic The Gathering CLIQUE
You have the R.O.T.C. CLIQUE (Join the Army Now CLIQUE)
You have the "Indie Band" / "Garage band" CLIQUE
You have the "Skateboarder" CLIQUE....
You have the "Movie Buff" CLIQUE... (Ya know...High School Kids that have to see Transformers Movie for the 12th time in a row?)
What you have with Electronic Arts and why there is mild enthusiasm over their Christmas Release is that Electronic Arts has far too many Startups...
They also destroyed their Baseball 2KSports franchise... I think they switched companys...dumped ESPN.....etc. etc.. etc.. I stopped buying their baseball game when ESPN was abandoned.
EA has just made too many stupid mistakes running around in circles looking for the next best thing instead of putting their energies towards some kind of Coherrant Strategy!
Stop chasing your TAIL cause ATVI's got the ball and you ain't going to win unless you can take the ball away from them.
ATVI's strategy is simple... HIGH SCHOOL....
EA could learn a lot by getting their G.E.D. [more]
Yes Yes.. I'm allowed to do this to a stock I own 565 shares of.... Hey.. I wasn't wrong when I screamed STOP!!! when the share price struck $13.00 was I??? And it's my blog!
Was I wrong when I lowered my stance from Strong Buy to HOLD just prior to anyone else in the actual, professional, paid analyst world lowering their expectations? I mean.. I was first to declare HOLD on ATVI.. I did it HOURS before Standard and Poors came out and lowered their Strong Buy stance to Hold. [more]
AMEN Bobby Kotick. Don't listen to the naysayers....whether they be media, shareholders, money managers that have a stake in ATVI, or other....
Pushing Starcraft II to 2010 is extremely the right thing to do here. I couldn't be any happier now with my stake in ATVI.
Because the one thing that is worse that a major title getting pushed past Christmas of 2009 is a Major Title underperforming badly all of the expectations that investors have for the game title cause the economy stinks.
I'd rather push back Starcraft II to Christmas of 2010 if it needs to go that far...... Than to see it release in as bad an economic environment that we are in right now.
So, I really couldn't care less about the EPS beat... or the Revenue Beat... or whatever the share price happens to be doing now in the after hours market... I don't care about the margin growth....
I'll let all of the other Investors jump for joy over those statistics....
My focus on this was to see to it that the right thing is done about Starcraft II. Starcraft II deserves to be pushed back in hopes for a better economic situation when it lands on store shelves.
I want Starcraft II to do really, really, well.. I want it to beat my expectations for that game title..
My expectations are for Starcraft II sales to rival that of Starcraft I. (period). Anything less to me is unacceptable... But, I can't sit here thinking that is what is going to happen when both America AND South Korea are experiencing economic turmoil still. [more]
Not sure why they refer to "Professionals" or "Smart Money" as basically mutal fund, hedge fund, activist fund money managers. Supposedly only those with a POT of $millions are the ones who know how to invest and everyone else..us individual pueblos just sit around with our mouthes open, drooling on the carpet, waiting to get stepped on by a big money guy that decides to buy or short one of our stocks. [more]
Not too dissimilar to giving someone the middle finger, Varchild just "GOLDEN CROSSED" Alstry in Caps Points.
I now have several hundred more CAPS points than Alstry. His accuracy score has plummeted badly while mine is slowly inching upward..trending upward.
Those who stayed bullish at or near 100% since the March Bottom should all be ALL STARS at this point in time... While those with Red Thumbs are at or near the 20< club.
Does this mean the rally is for real? Yes.... BUT it doesn't mean the economy has recovered... It doesn't mean the employment situation is going to look ROSY for the rest of 2009 or all of 2010.
The economy still stinks.
So, Varchild remains Strongly BEARISH... in spirit....but not in his portfolio (CAPS or Real Money).
If you catch me "Singing" about a Stock... Then chances are it will be a GOOD THING to buy the stock before the earnings report..... I strongly...strongly....believe in (STXS) as a good investment and turn-a-round story for 2010.
STXS manufactures and sells cardio technology for instruments used in heart surgery.
And given that the LIBERALS have taken out "Trans Fats" out of our food, there is going to be an awful lot of Hearts needing Surgery. [more]
Varchild2008 hopes everyone has at least 1 stock that trades UP during the Christmas Season on expectations of increased sales..... He also is gaining confidence more and more that the Stock Market is at a level DOW 9000+ that can easily bailout Christmas.
I no longer *fear* Christmas even if the C.E.O. of technology company's do.
I think there are enough investors in America that are benefiting greatly with this rocket ship off the March LOWs that could potentially offset SOME if not ALL of the Employment Situation.
Here's the kicker....
If you are unemployed....But, thankfully, you're savings account holds enough cash to get you to stay afloat for a couple years waiting to land a job.... AND you have unemployment checks coming in...
Then couldn't in theory...Investors take their unemployment checks since MARCH and stuff them straight into Stocks.... And then pull some if not all of the money just prior to Christmas Shopping or shopping for the Jewish Holiday or Ramadan or whatever religious practice / non-religious practice you do at the end of the year?
I can easily see that.... Not everyone is that smart to do that..... But some might have been motivated to do it...
I don't expect a BOOMING Christmas season.... But, I love to look at 2009 as if it's 2003...anticipating the NEWS MEDIA to come out saying, "Unbelievably, despite the unemployment situation shoppers are coming out to the stores and buying gifts. The malls are packed... Consumer Spending is far beating expectations..."
I can see another Christmas 2003 taking shape.... But, I'm not putting my investment career off the results of Christmas 2009 by any means. [more]
I get asked a lot by friends / co-workers who tell me to take some profits on my Whirlpool Stock or FORD or any stock that has gone up so high the RSI value is criticially overbought.
FORD (F) RSI is over 78% right now... 70% symbolizes criticially overbought status.
Those who look at the market from a tiny, tiny, short term situation all are shouting "We are at or near a top! 15-20% pullback is to be expected!! Equity markets are going to crash soon! Sell Sell Sell Profit Take Now while you still can!!"
Well.. If I survived "Armageddon 2008" then I sure as heck can survive a much needed, desperately overdue, pullback in the equities markets. [more]