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Varchild2008 (85.25)

September 2009

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Double Down on Chinese Video Game Sector (CYOU)

September 30, 2009 – Comments (2)

Are you in my situation?  Don't own Changyou?  Bought into either SNDA or GAME or BOTH and didn't get CYOU in your portfolio?  *oops*  Missed the IPO $19.00 price and think it's over?  *ouch* CYOU is done?  No point getting into it as it is almost twice what it was....right?

Woaw!       I'm here to say...........Time to DOUBLE DOWN on the Chinese Video Game Sector.

Before I explain my analysis of CYOU....    I am going to throw out an interesting *thought* that probably won't happen.... Here's a bit of fiction....

VIVENDI   didn't really "spin-off"  Blizzard.   There was a  (BLIZZ) stock ticker symbol to buy shares.....  I don't think there was...based on my research.. 

All that happened is BLIZZ merged with Activision....  And wammo.... You get 1 big gigantic corporation gaming goodness.

Sooooooooooo......    What if...... (GAME)...........merged........hmm......with.....(CYOU).......and.....all that money earned spinning off GAME....was...in....fact....to do just that?

SNDA got $1.04 billion on top of whatever cash was on their balance sheet before hand.  That's a lot of cash...plenty to merge GAME with CYOU.

Spin-off 1   merges with spin-off 2....     And in that relationship..... SOHU  is interlinked forever with SNDA.

MY GOD!           Kinda makes you want to own SOHU + SNDA  whether you are a CYOU or GAME investor?

So my point?  Fun to speculate....  But....Doubling Down on Chinese Video Gaming is well a SMART proposition in my book.  Now is the time to strike for CYOU..  Here's why!

1)   I calculate an EPS  based on earnings MEETS not BEATS in Q3 and Q4 of $2.77.

2)   At today's price....that's a P/E roughly around 12.75.    !?!??!!?  A P/E of 12.75!!?!?!?!?  For High Flying Changyou????

3)  Whose to say CYOU just meets earnings estimates going forward when they BEAT big both their previous earnings expectations Q1 / Q2 ?   So as exciting a P/E of 12.75 at today's CYOU price is.... There's the prospect the shares are undervaluing earnings for Q3.... That Q3 report is now right around the corner!

Oh....and that brings me to #4

4)  CYOU recently announced in September a video game release... Blade Hero II

Hmm...Has the word BLADE in it..check....coolness.....  The word HERO is next...check...gotta love HEROs.....It is a sequal and thus a start of franchising a previously successful Blade Hero I video game.....WOW.    ???  If this was some sorta unknown debut of a stand-alone game...well ho hum... But this video game is a sequal... 

Knowing NOTHING about the game you can still speculate Changyou doesn't make sequals to games that don't sell.  

But let's stop KNOWING NOTHING about Blade Hero II... Cause we are Motley Fools... We are NERDS GALORE.. We want to check out Blade Hero II!!!

"Blade Hero 2, created as a sequel to the Company's existing game Blade Online,
features a fighting and team-combat system that allows players to experiment
with authentic fighting techniques and weapons from different sects of martial
arts, including the use of hidden weapons, as well as deploy Chinese combat
strategies in battles. Blade Hero 2 also employs the Company's dynamic graphic
technology, which can exhibit detailed fighting moves and other special effects
to enhance the virtual fighting experience."

If your NERD SPIDEY SENSES aren't tingling after reading that... Then you don't stay up to 4:00 in the morning with nothing but a Video Game Joystick in one hand, Bag of Cheetos in the other, and a Pool of Sweat and Drool in your lap, and a video game beaming brightly on your 50 inch LCD Television with 7 DOLBY Surround Sound Speakers.... no... you don't know..CYOU...Like I do:-)

This stock has dipped big....now's the time to go back to neglected CYOU and enjoy the profits that are going to be flooding in from a PRIZED  Sequal video game just released in September.  [more]

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Fake News: DPS Spins Offs "Schweppes Orangina"

September 29, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

FAKE NEWS:   C.E.O. of Dr. Pepper Snapple Group just announced to Goldman Sachs Analyst that they are going to issue in March of 2010 shares of new Spin-Off corporation, "Schweppes Orangina."

The C.E.O. had this to say,  "Dr. Pepper Snapple Group will still retain a 67% stake in Schweppes Orangina.  Dr. Pepper Snapple Group will thus hold a 96% shareholder voting control.
This company will sell Schweppes Ginger Aile, Vernor's Ginger Ale, Canada Dry Ginger Ale, and Orangina to North America and Latin America."

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are working together to handle the books for this IPO issue and have priced the stock at a range of $10.50 to $12.50.
......

Varchild2008  "WOW!!! HEY FOLKS!!!    It's MARCH 2010!!!!!  Look Look!!! Awesome!!!  Schwepes Orangina debutes!!!! 

YAAAY!!!!  I am buying  the stock.. I don't care what share price it is... I am buying buying buying buying.... I love Schweppes....Canada Dry.. YAY!!! Vernors!!! YAY!!!!  "


Uhm....  Oh... My point?  Just demonstrating that it frankly doesn't matter to me.... if it is (DPS) I am buying or a spin-off of (DPS) in the form of Schwepes Orangina.... Whatever..

I am on board  BOTH....  I say..... BOTH are BUYS....

So when someone said... "GAME = Blackstone..... GAME worthless cause SNDA is the managers of GAME."

I mean... I look at the Earnings beats of DPS.... and I can't but drooooool over Schweppes Orangina Spin-off.... I would be a buyer of BOTH stocks all the way to my retirement...

But it doesn't matter!!!  I can be a buyer of JUST  (DPS)..... JUST (SNDA).....

I can be a buyer... of JUST (Schweppes Orangina)  ....or JUST (GAME)....

I get the SAME MANAGEMENT..... That has a Historically Positive....Management Track Record.

Why should I care????  Why ????  When signs point to BOTH as a good investment... buy 1 or the other.. or buy both!  It's simple....rinse wash repeat..
  [more]

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Varchild2008's $6000+ Profit...You can do this Newbs!

September 29, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

How does one make NEWBY mistakes and still manage to profit BIG?

Simple....

Put a large chunk of your investment cash into at least 3 stocks you believe in LONG TERM. 
Make newby Trade in out of Stocks mistakes with a very small portion of your money. 
My base..will never touch stocks are the following:

1) DPS
2) WHR
3) F
4) ATVI

DPS has given me so far a $6,000+ profit.... I am just buying and holding..steadily....
NO... My profit is in the TENS of THOUSANDS overall....I am just saying that out of that about $6 Grand is due to DPS alone.

GAME is going to be just as big for me I just feel it in my mind.... This just only needs to outperform the S&P 500 going forward.  That's all it has to do... Doesn't have to beat it by %1,000.

I am thrilled anytime I get a beat (PERIOD).  Sure..I'll get excited over a SUPER BEAT any day.
But...GAME just needs to beat by 1% for me and I am happy.  Does better? Cupcake!

So today... I place GAME as #5 base stock.   My don't touch just buy and hold stock #5.
What is so special about GAME that has me so excited?

1) SPIN-OFF?         check.

2) CASH FLOW?     huge!  check.

3) Management?     superb historical track record!  check.

4) Growth Potential?   43% revenue beat year over year 1st 6 months? wow! check.

5) Debt?   What debt?????  Scottrade shows nothing!  check.

Granted...GAME is not a traditional Spin-off.....but....it's a spin-off...
I will spin me good $$ off spin-offs I can believe in that engage in businesses that I understand and know.

I can't invest my money in every single Spin-off....nor would I want to....But, give me a Spin-off in the Video Games Sector with PURE CHINA exposure?  ??????     You may as well mail me a $1 Million check just to save me the waiting line!  [more]

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MUSLIM Jihad Countries ARE Liberal...How can any one not realize that?

September 28, 2009 – Comments (20)

MUSLIM JIHAD Dictatorship countries ARE liberal.

ChannelDunlap  (hope I got the spelling correct) wrote "You think they are liberal?"

Of course they are...

Let's look at what makes up the governance of a Muslim Jihadist Country.... 

SHARIA LAW....

What is SHARIA LAW?   It makes up everything from who a woman should associate with....what they should wear "covering their entire bodies and faces from the Sun."   It governs every aspect of people's lives.  It is all based on the mandates given by Religious Leaders....

How let's compare that with PRESIDENT OBAMA's  Universal Healthcare.  No similarities right? Wrong!

Religious Leaders telling people what they are allowed to do?    
How about CZARS??  

You have in HR 3200...a   "CZAR" Appointed by Obama to run a brand new Health Care agency that dictates what health care someone should have based on their age and the cost of the operation.

President Obama once said that he'd give someone a Pain Killer instead of an operation to save cost.

HR 3200  MANDATES  that you have to go see a Government Agent or a Physician to conduct a Session to discuss your healthcare situation...end of life situation.... Whether you have any useful purpose for the Government....

MAX BAUCUS Version of Universal OBAMACARE forces everyone into the "Program" against their will... under penalty of $25,000 fine... or JAIL TIME!!!!  That's right.... LIBERALISM  United States Style will make MARTYRS  out of VARCHILD2008  who does not want Public Healthcare..

I don't want it.... and right now... Given Max Baucus and HR 3200... I am basically THIS CLOSE...tiny tiny tiny gap... between carrying on with my life and being behind BARS for life.

How is that not SHARIA LAW????     That is what people mean when they say DEATH PANELs... The Federal Government pulling the plug on you because you are in a COMA and they can't afford you....

The Federal Government deciding whether you can eat Big Macs or not....
The Federal Government deciding whether you can light your house with Incandescant Bulbs instead of Flourescent ones.


What about CAP and TAX????      Now you can not power your homes anymore....you are forced to have a SOLAR PANEL on your roof????  You are FORCED to fork over $1,200 to the Federal Government has punishment for using Natural Gas or COAL to heat your house?

I mean.. It's the same thing but at a lesser..less extreme extent....

President OBAMA's  Liberalism..... Is the same as SHARIA LAW just without the Stoning and the "Women have to cover themselves with a Burqua" sexism.

The Religious Leaders...of Sharia  =   President Obama's  32 CZARS .... Telling Bank CEOs what they can EARN... What the size of their Pay Bonuses should be....

You have Will Ferrel "Comedian" saying that Health Insurance CEOs make too much money.

It's not Will Ferrel, Barack Obama, Varchild2008, or anyone else for that matter's business what kind of money one makes.... 

Conservatism is about FREEDOM.

Who was in opposition to FREEDOM for the IRAQIs????  Who said "The War is Lost."  
Last time I checked... Them fellers weren't Conservative.

Who wants to dismantle Capitalism??? Who HATES and DESPISES Capitalism??? In favor or SOCIALISM??? COMMUNISM?? MARXISM????  It's all the same dang thing... no matter what label you use.... With or without the stoning and Burquas....

Liberalism...... is Liberalism.....is Liberalism.....

Feel Goodery.. is just a way to draw you into the Liberalism snare trap.... The "OMG My Freedoms are gone" thing happens bit by bit....over a long period of time.. so you never really notice it until it is too late..... That is what happened in GERMANY with HITLER....

And as long as people like ChannelDunlap want to sit around and say, "Uhhhhhh .... That's not Liberalism.... Liberalism doesn't believe that.... Liberalism isn't that...." And yet they sit there still supporting Liberalism!!!!  They still support it.... Even though what Liberalism leads to...they don't support.... But to support Liberalism one just simply shuts out the scary, frightening fact, that if you

ERASE  Personal Responsibility... and replace it with GOVERNMENTAL CONTROL

What you get.... is....SHARIA LAW.  [more]

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Conservatism has been pushing this market higher since March

September 28, 2009 – Comments (5)

Question of the year 2009:  "Why is the Stock Market trading higher and higher in a historic bully rally beyond epic proportions while America's economy continues to sink into the bottom of the Ocean?"

Answer?  CONSERVATISM as far as the eye CAN SEE folks!!!!

No... The answer isn't  the typical Jim Carmer Mad Money Answer to the question:

"It's CHINA!  *Gong*  CHINA!  *Gong* *Gong* *Gong*  It's all CHINA!!!  *Gong* *GONG*"

Stop with the stupid GONG already.  If the only thing doing well is CHINA the rest of the world's stock markets would be in the toilet still.

China isn't some "savior"  or "messiah."

All you need is to go back to the day that Canada elected Stephen Harper....The day the Liberal Party in Canada was kicked out after Decades of rule.  Conservatives WON in Canada.

Go back to the Conservatives winning in Parliament in Brittain.

Go back to the Conservatives Winning in France.....Australia....India is Conservative....

Heck... Look at GERMANY!!!  Merkel?   Now she's got a Conservative Party Majority underneath her?

CONSERVATISM AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE!!!!

What does it all mean?   Simple.. it's all PRO-BUSINESS.   And the rewards simply spread to any company in the stock market with exposure to countries outside of the United States of America.

Some would say.. oh yea?  why's (DPS) Trading higher when they ....uhm...oh wait...They may not have exposure to Europe/China/India....   But they have exposure to Canada.

Don't forget... They also have a HUGE market in Mexico that is growing and growing in selling their soft drinks..... And that's right folks.... MEXICO HAS GONE CONSERVATIVE!!!!

The ENTIRE WORLD  outside of the Latin American + Muslim + whatever Dictatorship JIHAD states are all going Conservative FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!!!

And United States of America is being completely manhandled and put left in the dust....to suck on the exhaust fumes that the rest of the Conservative countries marching forward to Economic Prosperity are puting forth.

President Barack Obama wants to whine and worry about Global Warming.... Everyone else wants to focus on generating more economic prosperity for everyone so everyone can be rich!  [more]

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Varchild (nerd) Reveals his GAME stake + Wide Buy price points

September 28, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , EA , THQIQ.DL

GAME dove to $11.13.  I immediately pulled my hair out I was so excited....

I went and dumped a stock in my portfolio completely...not that the stock wasn't a good investment....But man... I AM  A NERD!!!   NERDS buy Video Game stocks....

So anyhow...  

On IPO day.... I used my paycheck to buy 50 shares of GAME at $12.32.  A small stake to set up a Wide Buy on the stock.

I then....dumped...out of a stock I didn't like as much as Video Games...or Dungeons and Dragons...I love Dungeons and Dragons and my +3 Katana of Lightning can kick your Mages...erhm..

Anyhow... I have 155 total shares now after having bought 105  (more than twice my previous stake) in GAME at $11.13.

Now I can just sit back..relax....and watch the stock price action going forward.

Should it drop to a 9 handle....I'm Wide Buying  TWICE my stake to 310 total shares...

Drops further to say 6 handle?  I'll have 620 shares....

My expectations are that this hovers between 12 - 13 until we get an earnings report + peek at the balance sheet.

SNDA....Look at SNDA.... Last several quarters...ALL EARNINGS BEATS.....ALL OF THEM....

Going forward GAME shall beat earnings estimates way more often than it doesn't given the amazing track record from the SNDA management team.  [more]

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Shanda Games (GAME) is a Buy not a Hold Ms. Brean Carret

September 28, 2009 – Comments (1)

Given Market price of just 15 cents off the bottom....

Assuming Scottrade's fundamentals are accurate in that there is ZERO debt on the books of Shanda games and about 29 cents per share in CASH position....

Given Shanda Interactive made 1 Billion in the IPO and is essentially running this IPO because Shanda Games is by no means a stand-a-lone traditional IPO.  This is SNDA #2.

Given SNDA's track record of powerful earnings growth.

Given SNDA's management's aggressiveness in acquiring other developers and pushing out new titles every year or so.

Given that the P/E multiple should be on par with (ATVI)......

There's just no reason for me to say this is a HOLD and agree with Brean Murray Carter.

Premarket just like the aftermarket has shown a pricing surge.  That's fine to a point.  I would not buy GAMES at $13.00  a share.... I'd try to get in below that and then when October China Games Conf. arrives I would hold.

But to say to investors to just HOLD at this point in time?  No.  This ain't no typical IPO that plunges into the bottom of the sea for many months.  This one has some life to it.

So Varchild gives his own investment (GAME) a BUY  until the China Conf.  and then either HOLD or SELL depending on where the share price is in relation to my $13.00 price target.  [more]

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Jim Cramer. "GET IN THE (GAME)"

September 25, 2009 – Comments (6)

Ok Jim... You have your precious Giganto-Debt  Select Med....  I got my (GAME).... Delicious shares of GAME...

Granted... I could only scrounge about $630 worth of an investment.  However, I have the weekend to see if I can find more cash to throw at GAME.

Absolutely THRILLED at the price I was able to get GAME for... The thing dove 5% almost immediately after the initial spike to $13.00 once it debuted...  Now the thing seems to be looking to produce an overall gain from the $12.50 initial pricing of the shares.

I *laugh* at the idiocy of people thinking 12.50 is the high end of expectations.  The problem with that is what expectations?? what?  How can anyone expect anything out of GAME at this time?

What I mean is they just bought a developers back in July....   This company has plenty of room to grow.... There's a major Video Game conference coming next month in China.... There's just way too many if, ands, buts, whats, what the hecks...   That's the *confusion* us investors get when we dive into an IPO.

Sorta like I how bought DPS on that company's IPO and watched the shares dive into the abyss.
But, now DPS has recovered and trades well below any price I ever paid for DPS.

The thing with GAME...  Is that it has obviously a solid management situation since SNDA  "Shanda Interactive" is obviously a solid company that has grown itself quite nicely over the years.
This really is just a Christmas Gift SNDA just handed us NERDS today.

I'm glad to be part of the Ribbon Cutting Ceremony.  [more]

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Moble Internet Tsunami! Jim Cramer Said So!! Waahhh!

September 25, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: PALM.DL2 , AAPL , BBRY

Research in Motion taking a huge punch to the gut....
So much for the Moble Internet Tsunami Jim Cramer spent an entire show/week pumping.

But, you'll never witness me saying that APPLE is a bad buy.   APPLE is getting spanked in sympathy to RIMM.   I think that is a good opportunity.  Of course...Not for me... I don't have the kind of CASHOLA to scoop up shares of a company trading nearly $200 a share.

AAPL is going to do fine in 2010 even if RIMM is not.   Because AAPL is much more than just

MOBLE INTERNET TSUNAMI!!

As for PALM?   Buy AAPL.. AAPL is a good buy!  well... if it drops to the mid to low $170s that is.  [more]

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TOP Trends for Economy Savvy Investors

September 24, 2009 – Comments (2)

#4:   FORD's Synch will destroy GARMIN and all other GPS device company's within 10 years.

How many company's have SYNC?    1
How many company's sell GPS units?  LOTS

My point? Competition will come in and build their own versions of SYNC.  This will in turn bring prices down.  As SYNC's price drops....The Value of buying a GPS declines.

#3   CHINA is quickly growing in the online video games market.  The CHINESE online Video Game Stocks are growing stronger than (ATVI).  This inspite of World of Warcraft...
Company's like SHANDA GAMES (GAME) are growing their business through the acquisition of other online game developers.  This is the time to jump on the bandwagon of an online China Games Play.  Consolidation is $.  Although too much of it can be a problem.

#2  MOLECULE Biotech -   Any stock dealing with molecules is a Strong Buy.
For explanation you should have seen last night's Jim Cramer show.
Lots of medical breakthroughs coming with the creation of Molecules.

#1  MSFT + EA  Linkup....Makes....Perfect....Sense... It should happen.   MSFT is the better buy in this deal.

#0 Natural Gas + Electric Cars =  Bullish for Nat. Gas prices...  Electric Cars will siphon off the vast supply of Nat. Gas eventually making Nat. Gas much more scarce and thus BOOM!  [more]

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The NERDS have all the fun...Forget Select Med...Game with the NERDS

September 23, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , EA

(GAME)  Debuts tomorrow.... 

Check my CAPS score on (CYOU)....

?????

Same drill.....rinse.....wash....repeat....

Oh... You want me to fill ya in?  good grief... IT'S A VIDEO GAME  ONLINE ROLE PLAYING GAME STOCK!!!!!!

Ok?  Not excited?  Then you must be Jim Cramer.  Who knows nothing about Video Games....Or the Video Game Sector....  Jim Cramer wants everyone on board SELECT MED instead....

(GAME)   and Select Med both IPO tomorrow...

Hmm.... Here's an interesting fact about Select Med..   The company has a DEBT so big that all profits go towards paying off that debt!

What about GAME??       Yea.... Thought so..... Buy GAME...... Not Select Med....Enjoy the CYOU style bull market rally.

When you get rich off of GAME....months from now... come back to Varchild's Blog and THANK the poor SAP for getting you and encourging you to buy shares of GAME.

P.S.  This GAME is a CHINA play... PURE........CHINA.....PLAY....  And you are getting on board at a time that coincides with a major Chinese Video Game Conference / Expo....  This is the HOT TIME to get on board GAME.....

Whatever share price it happens to be....Buy as many shares of the thing...  VARCHILD is going to figure out how many shares he can buy of GAME and buy them.  Buy Buy Buy buy the delicious GAME.... It's like a  SCOOBY Snack for us NERDS.

Jim Cramer =  NOT A NERD

Varchild2008 <------ MAJOR....NERD.  [more]

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Why is THIS stock in the red? (DPS) ? Quit listening to Varchild

September 23, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

*crud*  I can't be too greedy and selfish here... 

But even though yesterday I said DPS peaked around $28.00 where $28.00 is a pivot point....
That analysis was not structured around the OIL price falling downward through the $69.00 barrier.

If OIL is trending down....that usually means Beverage Sector should go up...waaaay up.
DPS owns 60+% of their bottling business.  Therefore suffers mightily when OIL goes UP.

So therefore...OIL going down???? Why is my stock in the red here Wall Streeters?
I can say DPS peak is $28.00....But that doesn't matter....Oil Down ,,,,,,Beverage up......

I fully expect that what I said yesterday is BUNK..... If OIL breaks through and goes to Mid to Lower 60s.... I think we can add a full BUCK to the DPS share price.

That means this MEGA stock rally should have seen DPS up 15 to 30 cents...not down.

*sigh*  Doesn't matter... Just sayin....I am bullish on my stock's fundamentals if OIL is collapsing!
Cheaper to TRUCK those DRINKS around the country, you know?  [more]

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Varchild versus TMFDeej (F) Ford and Auto Sales Outlook

September 23, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Let's take a gander at this morning's pressers listed on Yahoo Finance website on the (F) Ford ticker symbol:

A)  Ford plans Asia initiatives this week: Journal

"seeking to strengthen its Asian operations, will announce a number of initiatives on the continent this week, The Wall Street Journal reported. In India, Chief Executive Alan Mulally will unveil a new low-priced small car that Ford will produce at a newly expanded Indian plant..."

B)  Ford CEO says U.S. market looking good

"The CEO of Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F - News) said on Wednesday the U.S. market was looking good and vehicle sales were expected to increase."

C)  Ford's Global CEO Reveals New Ford Figo Targeting India Market and Export Sales

D)  Ford Pushing Hard to Boost Sales in Asia


WOW!!!  Look at that....  I better dump my stake in FORD these articles sound so bad.....bad...bad.... let me tell ya....  / end of sarcasm.

But the reality is if you had read TMFDeej's article on how U.S. Auto Sales are set to plunge and could be down for quite awhile post CASH FOR CLUNKER's   FED CASH...Shopping Spree....

Well...gee...based on TMFDeej's charts you would have dumped your stake in FORD.

Furthermore... TMFDeej told me in the commenting section,  "The Easy Money was already made in FORD." 

Sorta like telling all of Motley Fool's investors that believe in the FORD Motor Company's Future.. That believe that Alan Mullaly is working hard to build cars people actually wanna buy and drive and not just in the U.S. but from all walks of life on the Globe....

telling those people that there is "Nothing to See Here.... Nothing To See Here.... Nevermind Alan Mullaly in the background building new small cars in India and a 3rd Auto Plant in China... There's nothing going on with FORD to get excited about here folks...."

And then....just 1-2 days after he does all of this..pulls out his charts... dictates DISASTER for auto sales..... "Well..uhh.... the only hope will have to come from Large Trucks and SUVs....Other than that no one is buying cars anymore... they already did it in CASH FOR CLUNKERS."

Uhm.... sorry.... but there are a LOT of Rush Limbaugh listners... And those who listened to Rush knew that the $4,500 was money that was taxable.... And they knew to WAIT past Cash for Clunkers before making a purchase... There are enough of us Conservative minded Anti-Welfare types who aren't in Financial Straits that they HAD to buy a car in the Cash for Clunkers Scheme or be faced with no transportation.....  That we had the ability and psychology to prefer to wait before buying or upgrading our vehicles.

There is enough of us "We chose not to buy" types out there to make the sales decline in September look really more like an INVENTORY issue rather than a Reverse Trend down.






  [more]

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Lowering Opinion from Strong Buy to Hold (DPS)

September 22, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

Eyeballing the stock and seeing YET ANOTHER 52-week high closing price struck...

One has to wonder... Where should the DPS price be if I was GOD trading at prior to Q3 earnings report?

The truth is that exactly $28.00 a share is probably the pivot point.  Any higher and I do not see how this doesn't drop even on a massive earnings beat.

There's pricing IN an earnings beat.... and then there is pricing OVER the earnings beat.

In order to ensure the investment community does not end up with a share price that prices in MORE than the actual earnings beat's earnings are....$28.00 is the pivot point.  I usually go with a 25 cent pivot.  $28.25  $27.75.  That range is a good range going forward into earnings.

Unfortunately... There are complications....messy.. That make me unable to figure out DPS.

A)  I am leaning towards a decline in momentum from CRUSH brand going forward.  I don't expect the same type of huge growth going forward that we have seen this year...next year...

Why?  Total absence of Sugar-less Crush combined with customers buying the 2-liter Crush over the 6 Pack Glass Bottle version..... The 6 Packs have greater Margins....

B)  Snapple sales should improve...next year....  I strongly stick by my JUNE was SNAPPLE's Bottom theory.

C)  Dr. Pepper + Diet Dr. Pepper should see a nice 4% spike in volume sales going forward...maybe more....due to a massive amount of publicity.. I mean the drink is in Cowboy's Stadium's Party Booth...That's just cool factor...all over.


But then there is D..... Orangina.... What the heck is that???  You got a company buying ORANGINA.. Not from (DPS) which shows on their website that Orangina is one of their brands.... But from some LION, What's-it-Group....  Oragina Schweppes... They own Schweppes Ginger Ale as well?

My best guess is that this only impacts the European Sales of the Beverage.. That DPS still owns Schweppes and Orangina's North American business.  Some aspect of it at least.

Speculation could theoretically push DPS higher if someone out there thinks the North American portion of Schweppes and Orangina gets sold off..... That would pay down huge chunks of DPS Debt on the Balance Sheet if so...

DPS (to put it better)  has 3  Ginger Ales... Canada Dry + Vernors + Schweppes... They could easily SELL OFF 1 of them and not hurt themselves that badly going forward... 

As  a shareholder of DPS... I may be tempted to vote YES if such a thing was put to a shareholder vote to sell off one of the brands to a foreign company...  I'd say YES.... Clean up the balance sheet and focus more on a narrower portfolio of GINGER ALE..... why not?

It's great DPS has 50+ brands.. But you know what?  Just like operating in a smaller playground than COCA-COLA and PEPSI may be a good thing.....  So is shrinking the Portfolio to remove Debt and end up with a smaller portfolio... but Advertising out the portfolio becomes CHEAPER.   [more]

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Nanna Nanna Boo Boo FORD is better than YOUTUBE

September 22, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Nanna Nanna Boo Boo FORD is better than YOUTUBE

Imagine during the month of August... Youtube has an advertisement blitz... Guns and Roses announces through Youtube that they are going to get the original band members together and do a World Tour together for the first time..

I mean imagine in the month of August.. Celebrities from all areas of the Globe decide to post up Youtube videos.... New content for their fans..like...short movies....single original new songs....Artworks displayed in a home video from Thomas Kinkade....as a way to showcase his new original work of art he is developing and planning to finish by the end of August...

1 month worth of nothing but CONTENT  Goodness...  All Advertised... as well as Free Publicity on T.V. and Radio from all news networks...  Everyone talking about YOUTUBE..

And then September.....*silence*  ...... No one cares.... No celebrities doing anything on Youtube anymore... Total....Quiet....Silence....

Sounds like "CASH FOR CLUNKERS"  doesn't it?

Sounds like "FORD = DOOMED" !!!!    Varchild2008 STINKS!!!!!  This idiot knows NOTHING!!!!!!! I'm not listening to VARCHILD2008!!!!!!!  This is just some Invisible JERK telling me to buy FORD!!!!

NOTHING VARCHILD EVER SAYS CAN MAKE ME MONEY CAUSE ....

I mean...  gods!

Why would I steer people wrong pumping FORD???  I am loaded on the stock 564 shares...

I steer no one wrong...

And guess what happens?  Guess what we hear today from a press release?

A)  Ford is granted 826 million loan for producing energy efficient vehicles
B)  Ford's China Partnership opens up a 3rd Auto Plant to take further advantage of the growing sales/market share going on over there.

And finally:
C)  Ford actually sold more cars in SEPTEMBER than everyone thought!  They became the auto company with THE LEAST dropoff in sales numbers from August.

Now... Am I pulling all of this out of BUTT... Pure out of my BUTT... cause I have a stake in FORD and VARCHILD is just a toddler kid who knows nothing???? ya know pumping and dumping schemes???  Am I *EVIL VILLAIN*??????

Uhm... NO....  I have no plans to sell a single share of FORD....probably....ever....

I say this one is a solid company....straight into the next decade and beyond.

The very day after Cash for Clunkers.. Varchild2008 was *smart* and visited a nearby dealership.
I parked my car... And....less than 30 seconds.....in comes someone else.....they park their car next to me...

That's right.... a CUSTOMER.... in less than 30 seconds.. Day after Cash for Clunkers.... Parks their vehicle....

FORD never left folks... it can't leave....  GUNS and ROSES may QUIT  YOUTUBE.....  But the Vehicles people have discovered are far more safer and reliable and technologically superior to every auto company's offerings.... Those Cars are STILL THERE!!!

Drive to work.... Drive back... The Dealerships you pass by... Count them.. You can't go to the Movies without passing by a dealership... They are on T.V.   On RADIO.. Everywhere advertising.

If Cash for Clunkers did 1 thing right.... It EMBOLDNED  The Auto Companys..... It made them better company's going forward....

FORD has the best vehicles.... Everyone knows that now.... It ain't just a saying...It ain't a banner.
People had the chance...they came to the dealerships and they saw FORD's offerings... They spread the word far and wide.... FORD has SYNC.... FORD has the FUSION Hybrid.. FORD has Massage Driver Seats giving you a Hot/Cold Massage while you drive..

FORD has the *IT* and now finally....finally....People know it.  You know it.. I know it...It just took the AMERICAN PEOPLE to get off their seats and pay a visit to FORD and find out.... FORD ain't their Grandma ma's FORD anymore.
  [more]

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Varchild dumping EAG stake entirely

September 22, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: FRPT.DL

Just placed the limit order.... *alas*

I don't see a turn-a-round taking shape until the dark clouds lift from the loan shark deal with West Coast.  Until then.. The stocks not investable.

The rest of my portfolio is at a point where taking the loss here is not going to hurt / impact me much.  Especially when I already have a better company in mind for the cash.

(SWTX) Southwall Technologies is probably where at least SOME of my cash is going to be placed.
That has a stronger balance sheet, profit making quarter after quarter....and a bright future with a nice 2012 catalyst to look forward to.

I can not say the same like that about EAG. 

Then we get a report that one of the Board of Directors resigned.  SEC filing.  Not a press release issued .... an SEC filing... Sorry as a shareholder I take offense to this kind of behavior...hiding things in an SEC filing...versus press release.  No explanation given for the resignation.

Well?  At least I am giving an explanation for my resignation as an EAG shareholder.

FIX YOUR DEBT and MAYBE I'll come back.

EAG has the worst management for a defense stock that I've seen in awhile.
I mean compare it to FRPT... FRPT = ZERO DEBT paradise city....lots of cash flow... They don't bankrupt themselves in pursuit of acquiring a company.... They don't buy an APSG for $15 million they do not have and can't expect to pay off in the listed deadline given in receiving the money.

That's what I mean by worst management ever.... The C.E.O. is absolutely out of his rocker to leverage the company to such perilous amounts and issue conference calls that shed NO LIGHT on the leverage.

At least DPS makes it perfectly clear how they are handling their leveraged debt....they shed lots of light on it and provide timetables explaining how much further they have to pay it all off.

Where's your time table EAG????  You don't have one do you??    [more]

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The closer to DJ HERO release....the more I want it...

September 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

I *HATE* the music genre with a passion. I can't see myself plucking away at MATEL colored Sesame Street buttons to play a video game... Reminds me a donkey kong "BONGOS" game....They made  sequal I think out of a game that expects you to play the bongos..

I'm not banging on some bongos...or plucking some silly buttons...

But.. I donno....I personally am starting to like this whole "DJ HERO" thing.

Maybe I got hooked because of Daft Punk, DJ Jazzy Jeff, and so many others are in the game...
It is obvious that DJs have a liking to this title...  None of the "Anti-Activision" that is shown with some Rock Bands like *ahem* Guns 'N Roses, is the case with DJs who just want their ART FORM expressed in a whole new way.

If they toss in some PvC pipes then maybe Blue Man Group can make it in the game? (just kidding)

But...Depending on what is in the game...I may buy this... and if I have the balls to buy into this.. I don't think it's because of holding 640 shares..

I think DJ HERO appeals to those who don't like GUITAR HERO type games.

If I am right...if I am correct...

Imagine DJ HERO resurrecting the Music Genre?  Turning into a GROWTH genre once again?
How much would you pay for the growth potential of a video game that brings MILLIONS of Anti-GUITAR HERO / ROCK BAND video gamers on board?

I'd pay a heck of a lot more than $12.28.  

But, I'd want to see the sales figures first.... ATVI has to prove it...... DJ HERO is something we will just have to "experience."  [more]

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See? Varchild was right! MTXX exploding higher after FEAR subsides

September 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: MTXX.DL

*FEAR* from the Class Action Lawsuit has subsided... Short Squeeze spotted in MTXX.

Varchild re-iterates STRONG BUY opinion in MTXX.

Disclosure:  I have 0 shares of MTXX as I still wish to hold onto Sinovac awhile longer.

If I chose to dump my Sinovac.... Money is going to MTXX.

*achoo*  sniffle..... looks like I need to pop another Zicam.  Do you hear that?  I hear it...It's the sound of COLD and FLU and ALLERGY season! 

ZICAM profit making starts........now!  [more]

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Ok fine.. nobody ever listens to poor ole Varchild...

September 21, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR

(WHR) paring its losses big time...

What the heck?  [more]

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ATVI pushes BLUR to 2010...Shares Skyrocket up...well..not really..

September 21, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , TTWO , EA

ATVI's share price skyrocketing up to $12.50 today after the news of BLUR getting pushed back to 2010.

Err... well. no... But that should be today's News Article..

Hey... Is it no surprise here that BLUR gets pushed out?  It isn't for me.... Not when a superior title in "FORZA Motorsport 3" is coming out today.

For long term shareholders... BLUR's pushback is yet again a POSITIVE for us. 

ERTS
TTWO

Everyone is pushing games away to avoid the combination of a nasty recession + similar titles in same genre releasing.  Avoiding competition is a business strategy that WORKS in this industry.


The reality is the only thing I care about in Q4 releasing is:

A)  DJ HERO               A sure fire Blockbuster for some reason flying waaay under the radar.

B)  Call of Duty

Those 2 titles will set the tone for Earnings..... That's why ATVI isn't lowering their earnings estimates inspite of pushing BLUR to 2010.  They know the true strength of these 2 titles will offset BLUR, Starcraft, Singularity, etc. going to 2010.  [more]

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Whirlpool NOT Ford is the Strong Sell, Strong Short of the Day

September 21, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR , F

Looking at the market and wondering what to sell or short?  Popular Short/Sell is (F) Ford.  At least it was last week and looks to be in the pre-market this morning.

But, I disagree with the investor sentiment.  They are pointed in the wrong direction.

Given share price... of now less than $7.00... What does that mean other than FORD IS NOT PROFITABLE?   

If (F) was overbought it would have to have a closing price at or above $8.00.

So while Wall Street is out there on the "Cash for Clunkers is Over" bandwagon....well....I say those wheels will fall off in January if not sooner... And the cheaper the price gets the harder it will be to justify it much lower and the harder it will be earn anything off a SHORT scheme.

What we have is a bunch of SPOOK Stories in the Newspapers and Mainstream Media and Analysts all chirping about the Death of Cash for Clunkers.... Cash for Clunkers is meaningless.... Auto Sector worse not better..... Run!!! don't walk away from (F).....  If you ask me everyone is BEARISH on (F) Ford that has a megaphone.

Which is why it doesn't make sense from a contrarian perspective to hop on that Bandwagon off a cliff. 

Instead... you want to SHORT.....I STRONGLY URGE....the SHORTING.... of (WHR).

Let me clarify whether or not I am biased... I am not... I own shares of both WHR and F and the dollar value of both is nearly identical.  Share count is not.  But dollar value is.

WHR pays a huge dividend... If I was to be biased I'd be telling everyone to BUY  WHR.
I already said last week that the thing needs a $10 pullback at some point...whereever the PEAK happens to be.

But you know what?  We have had JIM CRAMER telling investors to buy WHR at $64.00 a share because there's 9 pts more to the stock.

We had some unintelligent investor analyst lookin all goofy as if he had something in his teeth paraphrasing, "Jim Cramer says WHR has another 9 pts to it!  9 times Mr. Bueller...9 times Mr. Bueller."

Well.. Varchild sees all of these morons bullish as all get out on WHR...... And you know what?

It is not justified!!!!!

Jim Cramer on his T.V. show always says, "You can trust the C.E.Os"

Taking that philosophical approach to WHR..... and WHR is waaaay overbought.  The C.E.O. as I pointed out a month or so ago has already said that he doesn't expect 2010 to be any kind of a turn-a-round in sales....

The C.E.O of WHR still sees a Recessionary economy for his global business for many months to come.

The share price where it is at is trading WAAAAAAAY beyond what Q3 and Q4 earnings reports could possibly justify.

I am placing therefore.... a $55 12 month target price on WHR.   That's just $15 more than Standard and Poors that also has a SELL rating on the stock.

Investors are TOOOOOOOOO  BULLISH.

The stock went up the 9 pts Jim said it would.... Now's the time to DUMP  WHR....
And Buy (F) Ford or any other stock that has too much negativity surrounding it.

WHR is not justified as a $70 stock and Jim Cramer knows better than to create this artificial rally.

This week and rest of Sep.  Investors on Wall Street are expecting, demanding, hoping for an overall market pullback anyhow.  So the buyers are munching on a bag of CHEETOS... They aren't buying anything...just sucking there thumbs...except maybe buying (PEP) cause they own Frito Lay which Owns CHEETOS.  [more]

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A Song for enjoying the Video Game Sector Rally Varchild Started

September 17, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , MSFT , EA

Yes! I give myself the credit... I badmouthe and whine and complain like a sissy about the Video Game sector and the sector just skyrockets today....It's all me.... So here's a song based on the "Sunday Night NFL" Theme Song for those enjoying the Video Game Sector Rally:


"I've been waiting all day to buy Call of Duty..
Didn't really care that I lost my Job...
Paid for the game with my Credit Card...
Everyday when the monthly bills come in...
I shred em all up and send nothin to them...

Yay e Yay e Yay e Yay e

Now I gotta get me John Madden '10.
I'll play ya online let the best Gamer win
I can kick your butt playin as the Lions
Matthew Stafford will throw for 6 TDs.
Cause you can't beat the spread all ya weaklings

Yay e Yay e Yay e Yay e  [more]

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Varchild Returns from Video Game Trip....Horrid News...

September 16, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , EA , TTWO

Sorry folks.... My Little Video Game trip to big box stores.. Uhm... BLEAK...

I'd seriously give it a 1 out of 10.

A 1 cause NO ONE was buying.... NOT A ONE..... No One buying video games....

At 1 store... I was the ONLY ONE around at the video game ailes.

At a 2nd store... About 5 or so people were browsing or playing a video game on the Demo system.

NO ONE BUYING!!!!

I hate to say it but I am not a believer in a September / Q4 / 2010  Video Game Sales rebound.

Well.. At least not in America.  The growth in the sector will have to come from.....CHINA....

CHINA is the only hope....As video game companys like ATVI seek to penetrate the market further and further.   Seems to me that things are better for video game sales per population percentage in the U.K. than in America.... I mean.... This is BLEAK stuff...

Yes it is a Wed.   Yes.. Not a Weekend.... Not a Holiday Week.... Kids at School....  But.. So what????  Where's the excitement over the TRIPLE AAA  Titles that have come out?

Games were stocked to FULL capacity showing NO ONE having bought a single copy of anything.
XBOX?  PS3?  WII???  Seems no one cares...

I guess  people are doing cheaper things now... like Hopscoch...

So.. I am going to be BEARISH going forward on the entire sector....  BUT!!  I am still holding my ATVI shares... Why?  CHINA... That's why... CHINA save us now!

Ya know.. You have to wonder... PRODUCT  versus ECONOMY....  What gives?  Well... It ain't Product at fault... There are some really great quality products for sale..... Console System prices have dropped which increases VALUE per Dollar Spent on them.  

The underpinnings of the sector look BULLISH.... But the reality does not.  [more]

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ADSI Saves Lives

September 16, 2009 – Comments (3)

(EAG) American Defense Systems.... Insider Buy:  10,000 Shares... Sep. 10th.

?

That's all I gotta say on that.  Well.. Besides also saying that the stock price is below 50 cents a share..  This is ludicrous.   Insiders have bought into this stock as high as $1.05 a share.

.49   today

$1.05    yesterday...

12 months from now?

Well.. Stay Tuned.... Typically insiders buy ahead of good news..sell ahead of poor...  But, that formula frequently doesn't work....So....*Shrug*  I have nothing to say.

I will say.. that as a holder of 7571 shares of (EAG)... And seeing this insider buy 1 week after previous press release showing that the big Marine Contract $30 million money is coming in much earlier than expected.... That's all good news to me... A confidence booster.

I think I just went from "Looking to sell off my entire stake of EAG at the end of this month"
to "I'll stick it out to next year to see what happens."

ADSI saves lives....  Maybe it will save itself from their existing debt obligations afterall.  [more]

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Are Video Game Sales better in September than August?

September 16, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: EA , TTWO , ATVI

Piper sees a come back in video game sales......hmm..really?  So many analysts are saying video games will start to see growth THIS MONTH....really?....uhm....hmm....

Tell ya what... Today is not a weekend.... It's a normal run of the mill week day....

Varchild will navigate at least 3 video game shops in and around Metro Detroit today and place his visits on a 1 to 10 scale.

1 =  I was the only one there....

10 =  OMG!!!!  I can't even get inside the game shop it's a frenzy!!  Nearly got knocked over!!


Why today?  Why now?

About 50% of the AAA titles have already released...or are on Pre-Order  Sales Promo Mode.

Stores are already prepping inventories for Christmas Sales.

T.V. Commercials on NFL and College Football games for all sorts of video games are popping up all over the place.

There is nothing to suggest I should enter a video game store at a random time....and be the only one inside.

Also....Varchild will sneakily determine if people are browsing...or buying..

Also... Varchild isn't going to Best Buy or Gamestop...... NOPE.. Those stores are out!

I'm looking for MOTHERS buying GAMES for the kids....   To do that.. I'm going to Big Box Stores like TARGET.

MEIJERS

WALMART

Etc.

Let's see if the Analyst Expectations will be MET.....  [more]

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List of 10 STOCKS Jim Cramer Hates!!!

September 16, 2009 – Comments (8)

1) DPS
2) HANS
3) KO

Jim Cramer prefers PEP.... Nevermind that PEP hasn't beaten earnings estimates except once out of the last 7+ quarters.  The other stocks have beaten em at least 4 times.

4) Airline Sector Stocks

Err..Disregard last night's airline sector rally....Jim Cramer is always right!!!  Nevermind the super growth potential in Jet Blue, Airtran, e.t.c.

5) LOW

He Prefers Home Depot... No disagreements here from me

6) SVA

Jim Prefers Gilead...(Down 9.9% year to date....SVA  up 511+%)

7) RIMM / PALM

Jim Prefers APPL

8) S  (Sprint)

Jim Prefers VZ (Verizon)

9) TCB   (TCF Financial)

Jim prefers (BAC)  Bank of American Collapse....Large banks have had a 6 month decline in the number of loans handed out... Small banks like TCF are increasing their finance/loan/ or Floor Planning operations.

10) Stocks that are NOT in "ActionAlertsPlus.Com"

Jim Prefers stocks that he has in his Charitable Trust versus ones he doesn't.  [more]

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Don't Mess With My Beautiful Looking Chart!!!

September 15, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR

That's right... I'm talking to YOU sitting there frustrated cause there's no Football game on tonight.... Just want you to take some time off from drooling over your fantasy football winning team that spanked the other guy by 100 pts in Week 1 thanks to drafting/starting Adrian Peterson or Drew Brees....

Look at that CAPS chart of mine....  That's a beautiful chart.. Would you invest in a stock that had the exact same shape of chart??  Assuming fundamentels of the stock were solid?

Of course you would!!!  Heck... With over 6,100 CAPS points... My Chart looks like it could be Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway  C Shares.  Or something... Maybe G shares.... Q??

So don't mess with my CAPS chart... Don't go thinking that NOW.... NOW... FINALLY NOW.... OMG!!!!!  NOW NOW NOW.... I must go marching forth to buy SHORT  ETFs.....PUTS on everything!!!  SHORT SHORT SHORT every stock in the market!!!!   OVERVALUED!!!!!!!!!  EVERY ONE IS TOO BULLISH!!!!  MELTDOWN!!!!   BLOOD IN THE STREETS!!! RUN!!

*Pause*

Cause....well.... That ain't happening.... You start doing that.. And my chart goes to HECK.. and I go from 6,100+ CAPS points to  NEGATIVE 6,100+  CAPS and I'll be so darned disappointed that I just may throw in the towel...

You don't build your portfolio up from the disasterous 2008 just to get slammed again in Q4 2009!!

You don't spend heart ache... after heart ache.. looking at every stock you bought in 2008 tank, get slaughtered... for absolutely NO REASON AT ALL.... day in and day out.... and witness a March Bottom Bounce... Feel all that JOY as the market goes to 7,000....8,000....9,000....9,600....

And then WAM... what?  Market collapses??  What was all the buying I did in 2008 for??? If that's the thanks I get?

P.S. Compare my CAPS chart with the 6 month chart for  (WHR)  they are practically identical.

WHR and my chart are exact replicas of each-other.  But that's how the market works... When things go good... every stock tends to bend to the will of the bulls. 

  [more]

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Varchild2008 make an extremely BOLD Strong Buy Claim. . . (MTXX)

September 14, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: MTXX.DL

I've finally decided to stick my neck out again... I am actually going to recommend a stock here that has the following:

1)  Massive Q2 loss due to a recall on  Nasal Cold Remedy drugs.

2)  Class Action Lawsuits against the company regarding those nasal cold remedy drugs.  Deadline for filing is tomorrow.

3)  The company only has 1 drug....as its major revenue producer.  1... It's a 1 hit wonder... Varchild absolutely HATES 1 hit wonders....   But, there is a problem.... Just cause I hate them deosn't make them a bad investment.  (HANS) is still a good investment for example.

So... What am I giving a STRONG BUY rating to and why??  why when the future for the company couldn't look worse?   Why when the stock couldn't look more like a speculative JUNK stock than anything in the market today?

(MTXX)  Matrix Initiatives.                STRONG BUY   *alert*

This call is good for 1 day and 1 day only... Ya see... Tomorrow is the "so called"  "who cares" class action lawsuit deadline.   That's when investors may be at their PEAK fearful....

The fear has pinned this stock that once traded at $19.00+  to just under $6.   I say this one opens with a pretty big DIP... Might catch it 25 to 50 cents lower.  Who knows... Lots of selling could happen on big September 15th, FEAR DAY.

Now.. Why on Earth bother with a company that has virtually nothing going for it?

Why????     Well... Simple.....


A)  Matrix Initiatives  has enough cash  even inspite of the class action lawsuit to stay good for at least a year without having to resort to ugly debt refinancing or share dillution or other maneuvers in order to continue to stay afloat.

B) How can you *achoo*  NOT  want to be *sniff sniff* an investor of *whiping tears from eyes*  *Snort!!!*  of a Cold Remedy known as ZYCAM!!!!

Everyone and their Brother/Sister uses ZYCAM..... ZYCAM  .... ZYCAM.... ZYCAM....

It has RUSH LIMBAUGH's  backing....   ZYCAM gets talked about by Rush Limbaugh during his show frequently...  It gets bought by the truck loads by consumers.... they don't go in and buy 1 pack of Zycam... they STOCK UP ON THIS STUFF!!!!

This is a WONDER DRUG.. And you are getting into MTXX at a ridiculous discount to the true value of ZYCAM's sales...

40%  Revenue decline???  seriously????  WRONG!!!!  WRONG!!!!!!!  WRONG!!!!!!

As the company points out... they have no idea but they do expect a certain, unknown, percentage of the 40% decline to be made up by customers that bought the Nasal brand to switch to the ORAL brand...  Furthermore.. Not everyone has heard of ZYCAM.... There's plenty of GROWTH in the drug..

Secondly.... MTXX plans soon to put out a major promotional effort for its ZYCAM drug and other remedies for Colds during the Cold Season.... Q4... This year... BIG PROMO.... ZYCAM is going to sell like HOT CAKES in Q4.. And the Money + Revenue from the sales is going to keep this company healthy for much longer than the 1 year period the company has said.

Bottom line....

You want to make lots of money????  

Warren Buffet will tell you that he bought American Express when everyone was DOWN big time on the stock declaring the company dead man walking.....

Varchild sees Wall Street declaring MTXX  dead man walking.....  I see things differently.... much differently.... I don't see how MTXX  can possibly not survive when they have tens of millions of dollars of CASH on the books right now.... They have enough cash... Their debt level isn't that big a problem.... Class Action Lawsuit... That too shall pass!!

Will Varchild put his money where his mouth is on this MTXX?    Probably not.... I have (SVA) in my portfolio.   But,  should I put some cash on MTXX... I'll let you know on this blog immediately afterwards.



  [more]

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Guitar Hero 5 outsells Beatles Rock Band in the U.K.

September 14, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

Wow!  Or should I say....W.O.W.!   Guitar Hero 5 outselling Beatles Rock Band in the U.K.

Quite ironic considering the Beatles are Brittish... I think...   I guess this once again shows that INNOVATION is KING!   Guitar Hero 5 chose the path of innovation while Rock Band banked on nailing a high quality celebrity.

Ok.. well... Temper your excitement though as this does shock the heck out of me some... No one is talking about Guitar Hero 5 in my work place..much if at all... They are all talking about Beatles Rock Band....

Granted.. my work place doesn't mean a thing....  But the sales we have on Chart Track are just U.K. sales... They are not North America sales....  We won't get those sales till October.

However, U.K. sales carry a significant weight for (ATVI) and I was already in hyper pessmistic mode with Guitar Hero 5 sales due in part to the Kurt Cobain issue... Turns out that having Kurt Cobain in Guitar Hero 5 has made the video game MORE POPULAR than Rock Band having The Beatles.

Uhm... which is kinda funny....  Grunge  beats Rock?    

I wonder if Courtney Love is spending her Guitar Hero 5 checks to purchase Beatles Rock Band.


Ultimately... it is about the FANS... NIRVANA.   You can protest Kurt Cobain's image in the video game all you want... but your FANS that love both NIRVANA and GUITAR HERO aren't going to be protesting Kurt's image along with you... They will be happily enjoying the fact that Kurt is in the game.  And that potentially means more $$$$ sales of Nirvana Merchandise in the future...

Guitar Hero 5 is a PLUS to any band that decides to put their image and music in the game. 
Why on Earth protest against the *unknown*  as everyone assumes Kurt would object if he were alive?  Would he really?  maybe initially... but I don't think Kurt would want to be left out in the end and he'd probably warm up to the idea....but he would want to make sure it's done HIS way...

Just as Kurt made sure his Music Video of "Teen Spirit" was done to his approval and co-management of the process.  Kurt wouldn't abandon GUITAR HERO 5  just *cause* of some philosophical.... I don't want to be Mainstream.....type attitude.....  He would simply manage the process and ultimately... if Kurt were alive today.. Guitar Hero 5 would still have KURT in the game... But it would be far better in whatever way Kurt would take it.  [more]

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Varchild goes to Gamespot to buy World of Warcraft

September 11, 2009 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI , TTWO , EA

So for any that believe there AREN'T any new people willing to create a brand new account and sign up to (ATVI)'s World of Warcraft game... That's changes this month as I am about to purchase World of Warcraft + both expansion packs + 6 month subscription fee.

Heck... Why not? The only thing holding me back this year was that I was still involved with another MMORPG video game.... But that one has grown stale.. So now I have a gigantic MMORPG with multiple expansion packs... plus another one coming around the corner...

And ultimately...  By purchasing the video game on a 6 month increment... I am only charging myself about $3 a month more than I paid for the previous MMORPG I had.

The previous MMORPG was Phantasy Star Universe.  That game no longer interests me.

Of course... Just cause I am about to spend $178 on a video game doesn't mean that ATVI's Q3 earnings report is going to be totally based  on my big purchase....

Nor will it be based on the $150 pre-order I did last month when ATVI reported their Q2 earnings of their video game "Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2  Prestige Edition."

Totally meaningless that Varchild is looking forward to ALSO purchasing Marvel Ultimate Alliance II when that releases next week.

So please disregard my purchasing of ATVI's products cause that's not going to make a single dent to ATVI's earnings reports....

But... It sure as heck will be loads of FUN for me for the next 6 months and beyond in the World of Warcraft:-)

P.S.  At some point I want to purchase John Madden Football 2010.  I don't own a football game and this one they released is a noticeable upgrade and certainly deserved better ratings from critics than it got.  Plus Matt Stafford (hopefully) will be a playable game character!  Go LIONS!  [more]

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Finally... (STXS) Stereotaxis outperforming S&P 500

September 09, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: STXS

I green thumbed (STXS) and put my recommendation on this one back in July and the stock kept tanking....

Now, the tables have turned... Share price is out performing S&P500 by slightly better than 5% since early July.  *whew*

I ain't going to claim that I was wrong on STXS short term or long term anymore.  I was right!
In this market though.... you can throw a dart and be right on.  The S&P 500 only has 10 stocks that have not traded up since the beginning of this year.

P.S. (F) Ford:  Those who sold it off thinking this will drop to $5 handle...  *wrong*  *wrong*  *wrong*  [more]

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General Mortors Poised to Plunge

September 07, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: F

A recent article viewable on yahoofinance.com  by going to (F) ford's ticker symbol shows some interesting concern about a "Change of Economic Conditions" with General Motors since April/May.

With General Motors only recently reporting a 40% increase in sales in China and basically a single to double digit decline nearly everywhere else...Double digit decline in America even with the Cash for Clunkers program...

It is not absolutely clear to me that concern over (F) Ford's competitor becoming some giganticly viable company in the near future because the U.S. Government is in control of General Motors is absolutely unfounded.

1) Medicare =  Bankrupt
2) Social Security = Bankrupt
3) Medicaid = Bankrupt   (State government run)
4) Fannie Mae = Bankrupted
5) Freddie Mack = Bankrupted

And yet somehow we are lead to believe my underperformers and shorters of (F) Ford stock that Ford is in *Trouble* of getting run over by a better performing General Motors?

When has the Government ever ran anything to success????
When has the U.S. Government ever done anything domestically to success???  When???

The United States Government has a ZERO %  success ratio in running private company's businesses.   They are only successful at conducting WARs and then that is questionable given recent failures in Vietnam and "Black Hawk Down."

Be afraid of buying shares of (F) FORD  because the United States Government has a majority stake in General Motors??  ARE YOU KIDDING???  hahahaha  haha lol!!  ROFLMAO!!!!

That is just ridiculous....   I know what kind of Press Release will emerge sometime in 2010:

"FORD for the first time in DECADES has surpassed General Motors in Vehicle Sale Market Share in the United States."

And when that happens... do you honestly think we are still bobbing up and down like a pogo stick between $6.87 and $7.78?  [more]

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(GOD) Or...How Video Game Publishers Fail

September 04, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: TTWO , EA , ATVI

I got a sure fire great idea!  Let's have a team of 3 or 4 talented game developers create a video game publishing company.  There are lots of great talented game developers with currently no publisher for their games.  Sure they are new, but hey talented game designers head up these break away gameing development houses. 

So..we'll get together, put on contract about 3 or 4 game development companys, publish their kick butt video games and rake in the profits.  Before long every game developer will want to be part of our video game publishing company!!  

Wow!    Great Business model!!!!

5 years later..(GOD) goes bankrupt....

What is..err....WAS....(GOD)?   A video game publishing company designed exactly as I wrote above called "Gathering of Developers."  Remember them?  Well..They went bust as fast as they took off..... And inspite of having super talented development company's under their belt.

What went wrong?  Nothing.  Nothing at all.

It was the business model that was simply lacking in any PLAN B much less PLAN C.

Most authors will start talking about releasing a game...selling it....marketing it.....turning it into a franchise....etc....etc.... I  say STOP!!!!   That's not exactly how to run a Publishing company!!


The best way to explain how to run a successful publishing company is to hand you an autobiography of Bobby Kotick.   His way?  Simple....It's the same way as Alan Mullaly...The same approach as Goldman Sachs...

A)  Design your business model to reward developers for exceeding your goals/schedule and sales expectations.

B)  Go after INNOVATION and not strictly judge a developer based on WHO is running the design studio but on WHAT they are developing.  You can pass up a SID MEIJER for a JOHNNY *UNKNOWN* if Johnny's got the better idea.

(GOD) spent waaaay too much CASH recruiting top notch developers with products that were years away from release.  There were big time game delays and money ran out.

Instead go after the *unknown* development house that has a *bright idea*   Costs less.....And rewards you more!

That's how Guitar Hero came into being.  Unknown entity makes awesome innovative game...gee? No brainer.

Oh and you do not randomly, stupidly, make video games into franchises.  You make games that are *HAILED* by video gamers and critics as brilliant masterpieces.....into franchises...

You turn sales leaders for the year.....into franchises.  Not just any ole game cause you published it.

C)  Don't be afraid to punish poor performing developers.   Just as stock investors shouldn't fall in love with an abyssmally performing stock, neither should you do the same to one of your game developers.

D) Quality over Quantity.    It's never about how many developers you have....It's about the GAMES!!
1 Publisher can survive off just 2 or maybe even 1 developer....starting off...

       Quality is both created on how expensive it will be to get your developer's game to Market  (TIME = MONEY) and how that game looks compared to similar game titles.... What is innovative about it that would convince a "STARCRAFT" fan to fork over cash for your title as well?

Just as investors don't scoop up 5 companys just cause they are in a hot sector.....but invest in 1 or 2 that have a great catalyst you can rally behind....  You must do the same...

That brings me to (TTWO).  This publisher is a mixed bag of great hits and poor ones.  They sometimes follow this model and other times like in 2005 they don't.

Right now TTWO is a stock I would skip on as an investor until January 2010.....but only to get behind Bioshock 2's release.

Ultimately, I think a *peak* into the list of developers TTWO has is what investors should do and judge for yourself which ones deserve to be rewarded....which one's punished by being dumped? 







  [more]

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See? I told you so... We have a (F) Ford - Boom!

September 03, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Having ourselves a nice FORD boom...

I'll grab my violin for the Commenter on an earlier post that said paraphrased, "I sold my shares cause your opinions can't make me money.  Opinions can't make me money."

Really????

Really????

I wonder how much money I made for anyone that read my words about Skechers as a strong buy?

I wonder how much money that guy would have made had he just held....1....lousy...day...his shares before panic attacking and selling them off?

Waaaah....Cash for Clunkers is over..... Waaaaah...

Sorry.. But  turn-a-round story NEVER has anything to do with FED CASH.... NEVER.....

If you *eyeball* a turn-a-round story on a stock and decide to invest in that stock.... Chances are you are not investing in the stock because of some extremely short term 1 item, 1 instance, 1 issue deal.. You are seeing potential long term growth!

That's why so many investors bought (F) Ford at $5 handle or lower....  That's why people got pissed off at anyone saying bad things about FORD....

The research just doesn't add up to FORD being a bad long term investment.   The days of (F) Ford stinking up a storm on Wall Street....are over folks...    This one's a good Growth Stock to keep long term in your portfolio.   Go throw your cash at some short term High Flyer.... Like I don't know... Some Biotech about to report results of a drug?  (F) Ford ain't no short term trip....

Ford is here to stay and prosper for many years to come......  [more]

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Fear Bots to miss out on (F) Ford share price rebound today!

September 03, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: F

Yesterday's Scaredy Cat, Fear Bots, dumping shares of (F) Ford....selling out and slamming the stock to $6.87 inspite of there being nothing but a huge string of positives for FORD are going to miss out on the (F) Ford rally.

Hey.. I admit when I am wrong... I was wrong at least *short term* with Stereotaxis (STXS) whose share price is stuck at a 3 handle now.  Medical devices are still in recession mode.  I still stand by STXS as a good long term investment.  Only time will tell if I will have to admit I am wrong on STXS from a long term perspective if we get no recovery in 2010 for that sector.

But, the automotive sector is on the mend....evidence of that was seen months before C4C program.

Alan Mullaly declared 2011 as profitability target and did so NOT factoring in some silly C4C program that lasted a whole whopping 1 month.  Those who think C4C is just going to steal sales for FORD.... What? Steal Sales??  People that participated were the *desperate* crowd who badly needed to upgrade their vehicles or risk having their vehicle become inoperable.

The shopping crowd that trades their vehicles every 5-6 years didn't participate in C4C.  They are biding their time still....they will trickle in...That crowd is still there... Plenty of people I know that want a car did not participate in C4C.

When I pay off my own car I want to trade it in for the 2010 SHO.  I expect by the end of this year to have my car completely paid off.  So roughly January 2010 is when I will make my own CAR purchase.

I mean good grief?    Anyone read the positive news in FORD Canada?  3 months straight of sales gains?  market share gains?  The whole car company with any gains????

People love the products that FORD sells.. They are superior to a whole lot of what's out there.

That is why when Scaredy Cats dump their STAKES..... Varchild buys em up.  I now have over half a thousand shares of (F).

I can't wait for the next PANIC so I can buy more.  [more]

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Markous Moulitsas giddy over stimulus boost. Whirlpool NOT!

September 02, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: WHR

Despite Markous Moulitsas apparent giddy-ness over perceived impacts of the Stimulus Spending in terms of Gross Domestic Product numbers (not job growth) as seen here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/9/2/775722/-Stimulus-gives-economy-a-boost

America's companies like Whirlpool do not see much if at any actual economy growth in their businsses for 2010.  In a recent press interview 84 minutes ago from this posting on the DOW JONES NEWSWIRES,  the C.E.O. of Whirlpool Jeff Fetig said,  [more]

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(F) Ford sales will plunge....oOooOoOOo...Scary

September 01, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

(F) Ford Sales will plunge.....now that cash for clunkers is over.....Analysts are SMS-ing their clients all about it..  [more]

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Varchild2008 raises opinion on DPS from Buy to Strong Buy..Target Struck!

September 01, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS , SVA

*ALERT*   *ALERT*   *ALERT*    Target struck!

DPS struck RSI 55%  at the close! 
Wahooooo!!!

Of course the overall market could punish the stuck further... But I don't care.  I already raised my rating from SELL to BUY last week Friday when the thing went back to its IPO price of $26.50 from the 52-week high of almost $28.00.

With a Standard and Poor's price target of $29.00 and my opinion that DPS should go into the 30s 1st half of next year......  It's a no brainer now at this level.

A buy into DPS today at a 25 handle....55% RSI....  Is potential profit of at least +4.00 when it hits $30.00.

If you are reading this article... You are in for a *REAL* treat... Here's a bonus recommendation....

Varchild2008  who just increased his stake by +164 shares TODAY.... Gives a STRONG BUY rating to (F) FORD!!!

Stock up!  big time....  I am a big believer in the "SHO" which the conference call says is up +50% ahead of Ford's previous expectations for sales orders..... They are getting lots of people at dealerships asking about the SHO right now.

Everyone is DROOOOOOOOLING  over the SHO at my work place....   There's no end in sight to the sheer publicity by way of mouth..cooler talk...that could push people to buy a car even without the Cash for Clunkers.... even in this Horrible Market.....

Bottom line?  at $7.25 or below... BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY  (F) FORD tomorrow.

Of course... I also caution NOT to let the share price exceed $7.50.  Do your buying below $7.50.

I do not want to see the share price with an 8 handle until we get to the Earnings report + September sales figure.

So I am not saying....go buy pointlessly.... DPS.... or go splurge buying (F) FORD with out any care or caution.... HECK NO!!!!!

I am just saying if you can sneak in tomorrow and grab some shares at the current price these 2 stocks are at... long term.... you'll make out like a bandit.

I haven't increased my DPS stake because I am heavily invested in (SVA) which is a running momentum stock this week.  As soon as my SVA runs out of steam... I am dumping SVA straight into DPS.  [more]

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