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Varchild2008 (83.81)

September 2010



Will Ford Post 69+ eps Q3?

September 29, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: F

July and August showed weakness in Auto Sales in America.

But, those that actually paid any attention realized that Ford Motor Company sold more cars in China, India, and Brazil than it has in its history during these months.  Far surpassing what it did in Q2 of 2010.

Combine that with the fact that in much of Q3 will consist of much smaller interest expense on Ford's debt due to debt repayment in Q2.  So the bottom line expenditures are way down in Q3 versus Q2 while Foreign Sales are way up.

Furthermore, I predict September Ford Motor sales will surprise to the upside even the most bullish Ford analyst.  I base this on my hunch that Ford spent much more money on incentives to encourage buyers this past September with 36 months 0% Interest + $1,000 off...type deals.

The reality is if we get a surprisingly strong September month in America and in the so states that were strong sales growth countries in the previous 2 months then we will see an EPS that is greater than, not smaller than, Q2.

Which will again put to shame the current 35 cent EPS average expectation of Ford Motor company analysts.  [more]



No Chance Commander

September 28, 2010 – Comments (1)

No Chance Commander  - A Varchild Spoof of the Lyrics for Electric Six's Dance Commander  [more]



Pres. Barack Obama Burns Thousands of Books

September 27, 2010 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: F , DPS , GAME.DL

September 25th 2010 was the day the Pentagon burned 9,500 copies of books of Operation Dark Heart, author Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer.

MSNBC and the Liberals are desperately pointing the finger at the CIA and saying President Obama had nothing to do with this.

Unfortunately the facts do not support that allegation.   The 9,500 books were bought by the DIA (Defence Intelligence Agency) which operates under the behest of the Commander in Chief which is President Barack Obama.

The Pentagon claims "State Secrets" was the reason for the book burning but this argument does not stand up to the facts at all.   The facts are that the Department of the Army reviewed the book ahead of time and approved it.  This book was in fact published before the DIA stepped in.

So what is the point of this on a Stock Market Website like Motley Fool?

Well.... I say it is time to do some BURNING of our own.  I have been disappointed in some small cap stocks not performing how I thought they would.  Instead of holding onto underperforming stock...  BURN THEM!!!!

Err...well....  We can't burn them as the SEC no longer allows us to have Paper Shares of Stock.  We can only have Electronic Shares of Stock.

So... Instead of burning your stock...   Sell them!!!

Listen.. I look to buy and hold long term...  I have 2 Retirement Stocks I can believe in straight into my Retirement.  So I am in hot pursuit of a 3rd stock for my portfolio that I can hold onto for just as long.

I have spent all of 2010 not really finding the right stock.  I think I finally found a stock that I invested in before I dumped it to buy my house, that I can now hold onto until I retire.

I strongly believe after BURNING away some dead weight stocks doing little for me.....

That this will be my new list of HOLD FOREVER STOCKS:

(GAME)  [more]



Stock Price Targeting 101

September 24, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

It seems that analysts have a universal problem with price targeting a stock beyond the 52-week high.
If you are going to price target your 52-week target price below the stock's 52-week high, then you should nonetheless explain how the fundamentals of a stock which may have changed to the downside won't within a year's time span not suddenly snap back.

And that is where I take issue after issue with pretty much every stock analyst.  Sure, some have excellent track records with stocks that are within that analyst's specialty.  Some just know how to value Automotive Parts Suppliers.... Some know beverage companies..... Some are good with Technology Stocks like Apple Computers or Entertainment Industry Stocks like Netflix.

But, even these anylsts discussing their specialty do not explain why they would undercut a stock's price below what the stock has already sold for this year....  That is insane.

Take a look at Deutche Bank's analysis of Dr. Pepper Snapple Group today, which is my retirement stock in which I own 526 shares of right now,  (DPS):

The Analyst raises DPS from Hold to a Buy while keeping a $39 price target... Despite the fact that the stock has already surpassed that to $40.24 a share earlier this year.

So.... The stock is a buy inspite of the Analyst expecting that next year we will not see DPS trade beyond its 52-week high?  This is the case inspite of expecting $100 million worth of Stock Buyback + 2 - 3%  Dividend Yield attached to the stock.

How????  Why is this so?

The Stock is just trading a measly 4 pts below a target that is a 52-week target.... Not a 12 day target.... But a FULL YEAR target.

And we can expect the stock to do no better than 4 points?  And you do not explain to your readers why you think the Valuation on DPS will not change from where you value it today (which frankly is not how you would value DPS if this was Last Year)?????

Analysts need to get a clue here....

Readers deserve better analysis from these professionals.   I'd be better off hiring a High School Kid to spend a week going through Dr. Pepper Snapple Group information and then giving me his/her opinion on the stock than this crap.

How in the heck can anyone expect the Valuation of DPS to reflect 2nd half of 2010 instead of first half of 2010 next year?   [more]



"We Need a Permanent Funding Bank" - Obama

September 06, 2010 – Comments (5)

"We Need a Permanent Funding Bank" - Obama|

"Obama also called for a permanent funding mechanism, an infrastructure bank, to focus on paying for national and regional infrastructure projects. Officials provided few details of how the bank would work."


No..... You already have Tax Cheat Timothy Geithner Working Overtime Hours printing cash as fast as the Treasury Department's Printing Presses can print their little hearts out.

Permanent Funding, Infrastructure Bank?  What does Obama think the Economy consists of?  Does he understand that an ever increasing portion of our economy consists of High Tech Jobs?

High Tech Jobs require job training and commodity cost reduction.   Commodity Cost Reductions could occur with Free Trade Agreements of which we know there are 2 Free Trade Agreements that have been signed into law yet.

We are sitting on a pending agreement with Columbia and one with South Korea.  Both of which if signed, assuming the issues involved are resolved, would definitely help in commodity cost reduction.

The Columbia FTA was signed in 2006 but President Obama said he wanted to address various issues.  Well????????????    Instead of shedding any light on whether there has been any action on this we get a $50 Billion Boondoggle Speech about  "Permanent Funding Mechanisms."

I think the last thing we need in our country is more "STIMULUS" and the 2nd last thing we need is more "BANKS providing permanent funds for the Federal Government to use on whatever it pleases itself."

Let's face it...

KOREA consists of Coal, iron, lead, zinc, tungsten, gold, graphite, fluorite production.

An FTA agreement with Korea would greatly lower the costs in all of these resources and improve bulk shipping companie's opportunities.  It would help bring costs down for all sorts of companies in America that need all of these.   It would simply act like a massive TAX CUT without ever spending 1 dime....1 penny......1 anything....

So for all of the News Media Bums who think the Republican Party has no ideas or solutions.....

Just look at how President Obama continues to forget about KOREA and COLUMBIA as just 2 solid examples that Obama does not care about America's economy.

How stocks in your portfolio would benefit with a Korea FTA and an improved Columbia FTA?
I am willing to bet quite a few.

The Korean FTA alone adds an estimated $10 - $12 Billion to annual United States GDP and another $10 Billion to Merchandise exports to Korea.

Now that is a HUGE Chunk of changes to jolt our economy and get things going again for the American People.  Yet, President Obama never made any mention of any progress with this during his Labor Day Speech today.

So.... Just think about that when you go to work tomorrow morning... Just think....What things President Obama COULD HAVE SAID.....but didn't that would have had a positive impact to your portfolio.  [more]



Small Shareholder speaks out against RWDSU

September 04, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS

You have got to be kidding me!   After over 3 months of striking and throwing leaflets around and gathering letters from New York State Congressman and so on....  They finally get a sit down with Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) and DPS offers them the same $21 a hour wage + keep most of their benefits in tact...albeit the 401K does take a cut to 2 percent matching.

And the RWDSU's response?  After pretty much getting everything they wanted?  Their response is that they would rather be unemployed!   They said no to this contract deal!  unthinkable.

Bottom line is that we have a 9.6% unemployment rate and the leadership of RWDSU and its members would rather choose unemployment rather than a $21 an hour pay check with some
401K matching + health care benefits.

If RWDSU is so interested in giving up their jobs so that others unemployed can have them then I guess that is more like CHARITY than anything else.

This is why Shareholders tend not to like unions.... If there is no union within a business then the business can better respond to the economic realities which go above and beyond past profits and revenue...  Does RWDSU not care what the impact to the OBAMACARE bill may be having on Dr. Pepper Snapple Group?  Or the Financial Regulation Bill's impact?  Or the impact of tax hikes on the wealthy and on small businesses coming in January?

There is an awful lot of headwinds in front of companies like DPS and to sit there and ignore all that thinking that past profit performance is all that one needs to look at.....    Businesses have to account for the FUTURE.... Any good CFO has to weigh Federal Government Policies and determine years out into the future what their expenses will look like.

I am willing to bet this never would have happened if we didn't have Barack Obama as President of the United States pushing uncertainty onto the Balance Sheets of Companies of the United States of America.

BOTTOM LINE:   RWDSU Unions voted themselves out of a job.  Just as America did in 2008.  [more]

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