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Varchild2008 (84.02)

October 2008



David Gardner versus The Standard and Poor's Company

October 30, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: BBY , GME , ATVI

For all Activision Blizzard investors or those thinking about jumping on the band wagon here, I have to tell you that the Standard and Poor's analysis of Activision Blizzard released 10/24/2008 (the first analysis after the merger with Vivendi that I know of) runs smack up against David Gardner's analysis...and my own.

Standard and Poor's cuts their target by $5 to $15 a share, while David Gardner re-recommended the Stock when it was trading at a price much larger than the S&P target price.

So whose right?  Is S&P wrong and David right to be optimistic about the Vivendi merger and what kind of sales and revenue impact that brings to Activision?  Or is S&P right to be pessimistic in this economy and base their judgement that Video Game sales will fall off a cliff as national unemployment could rise to 7% next year?  (It is currently at 6.1%)

You see.  Standard and Poor's doesn't address specifics and really doesn't even mention the Vivendi merger other than to say, "Great franchises!"  Right.... That's so informative.

They have cut their target price to $15, a target that intraday has already been achived by Activision Blizzard a week or so ago.  [more]



My (SID) call is still stands so laugh all you want

October 28, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SID , X

I made a call months ago that SID will go back to $50 before the year is up.  So that's closing bell December 31st or earlier.

Now that SID has bottomed and we are experiencing a mega rally this morning.... And Home Sales for New and Used Homes are up while prices keep falling and motivating buyers to scoop up some more homes....

I mean.. If people are buying homes... then this isn't a recession...not as bad of one as naysayers have shorted the whole stock market to make us believe.  Furthermore, if people are buying homes then companies are buying STEEL!

So.... STEEL yourself for a complete turn-a-round on the steel sector with (SID) percentage wise leading the way to the top of the mountain.

Don't overlook the fact that (X) U.S. Steel just posted a record breaking 3rd Quarter earnings report.
This is absolutely phenomenal.  How in the world can investors on Motley Fool make fun of me?  How can they do so?  When Steel Companies are not only profitable still they are breaking records quarter after quarter.  [more]



Activision Blizzard: And a Possible Recall of Full Band Kits Perhaps?

October 26, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

For all ATVI investors out there.... Strictly based on reading comments in forums on a number of sites like IGN and Gamespot...  A number of complaints regarding faulty equipment out of the Full Band Kits for the Guitar Hero 4 does seem troubling for the investor for the short term.  [more]



We've hit mass panic...Circuit Breakers are working overtime!

October 24, 2008 – Comments (6)

Jokingly I said on the Motley Fool Voting Poll that the market is going to trade up, waaaaay up.

So I wake up to see that the CIrcuit Breaker had to kick in around 8:00 a.m. due to the market being sold off up to its 5% limit in all 3 indexes.

We could witness a 1,100 point drop by 2:00 p.m. today and that leaves us with another Circuit Breaker Freeze for 1 hour.  What happens after that freeze is anyone's guess.

But today marks the day the DOW will hit 6,000 at some point.  The 7,900 point bottom that everyone was hoping was the bottom we can kiss goodbye.

The Stock Market is in absolute Nuclear Meltdown.

I can't help but laugh as I hear analysts on CNBC continue to say, "We just need buyers to realize how amazing cheap everything is here.. great values everywhere..."

Nothing in the entire stock market is a great value until this complete market meltdown mess is over and we have some stability for a change.

It looks like OCTOBER is set to be one of the worst MONTHS the stock market has ever witnessed.  [more]



AgFeed's Optimism should be your Deep Concern

October 23, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FEEDQ

AgFeed Industries wrote a report several weeks ago explaining that commodity prices falling only has a positive impact to their earnings revenue.  They also keep saying, "Nothing wrongs.  Everything's fine.  Go safely to bed and please ignore the global slowdown."  [more]



How to Invest your Cash in Taxes

October 22, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GVHR , ADP , PAYX


What happens when a new President is elected?  The TAX LAWS change dramatically!
What company benefits the most when Payroll and Benefits Tax Laws change?

Paychex benefits whenever the tax law changes by assisting small and medium sized businesses with figuring out the payrolls based on the new law.  Doesn't matter if taxes go up or down.

If Barack Obama becomes president... Paychex becomes a Screaming Buy....
If John McCain becomes president....  Paychex becomes a Screaming Buy...  [more]



Starcraft II not Diablo III is the Catalyst

October 17, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

David Gardner has recommended multiple times Activision  (now known as Activision Blizzard) as an excellent investment and he was right on the money.

And he's still right to recommend it even more so after the merger.  The stock is red hot.

However, I emplore everyone to set up your profit expectations for selling some of your shares off right now if you are like me and you recently got into the stock on the dip around $10.40 or less.

David Gardner is wrong to say Diablo II is the catalyst.  Sure, that game is hugely popular and it will sell like hot cakes.

But.. go back to the day Starcraft released after Diablo.
That may happen again... Starcraft II may release after DIABLO III.

My point is for investors to not bail out on their ATVI stock 1-2 weeks before Diablo III's release date.

Starcraft II is going to send the stock up regardless of share price at around 5-10%.  I wouldn't be surprised if it goes as high as 15% more than what DIABLO III does to the stock.

Here's why:

1)  Read up on the South Korean Craze over Starcraft.   It was bigger in Korea than it ever was in America and America loved Starcraft more than Diablo.

2)  Starcraft II is doing something that DIABLO III is not.  They are simultaneously releasing 2 expansion packs to the game the day Starcraft II releases and bundling them in a "Trilogy" package.   This trilogy package will do to Starcraft's profits things DIABLO III can't even dream of.  

3)  The expansion packs to Starcraft II are also sold separately and become long term income over the 2 quarters after Starcraft II releases for buyers of the stand alone game.

Starcraft's expansion packs widen the catalyst way beyond just the first month's sales revenue.
Diablo III will just get bought in the 1st month and suffer sales declines afterwards.

4)  Starcraft II introduces Customizeable Map Creation for the battlefields in the game.  This not only creates a community of gamers designing and sharing the maps they create thus giving the game a longer lifespan than DIABLO III... But it possibly could open the door for even more income for ATVI if downloadable Maps produced by Blizzard for $1 a map (whatever they price it at doesn't matter much) is something they end up doing.

I go back to OBLIVION's downloadable content for $1 each on Bethesda's website as an example.
Or HALO 3's downloadable maps for a price.

The real money maker is Starcraft II and that game may not release until after DIABLO III so keep track of the release dates as they become known in the next 6 months (release dates can change) and make sure the bulk of your profit taking is with the right video game.




Attention Shoppers, Blue Light Special on Retail Sector...

October 16, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: BBY , GME , HD

1) BEST BUY   7.8  P/E    $24.58

2) LOWE's       10.3 P/E    $18.14

3) HOME DEPOT    P/E 10.4   $19.83

4) GAMESTOP       P/E 12.8   $27.73

5) RADIOSHACK   P/E 7.6    $13.14

Best of all... You don't even need a Coupon and they may as well hand you a gift receipt at these prices.  Although, some of these will certainly trade even lower with even lower P/E multiples such as Gamestop and possibly Lowes/Home Depot.  So, any buying in the sector should be done conservatively with the belief the stock prices will drop further.  Don't buy in all at once like Texas Hold Em.  [more]



I'm Convinced! Investors are ignorant

October 14, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: INTC , ALTR.DL , IBM

INTEL posts record 3Q profits with a full year guidance that is within and perhaps could be higher than analysts have estimated if it hits near the $10.9 billion upper projection.

Yet all we hear from the investment community:

"Intel 3Q profit inches past estimates"

5 cents a share increase Year over Year is "inching" past estimates?

"Intel's Tepid Outlook (Update)"

Tepid?  Tepid?  There isn't much difference in their range than the range originally stated.  Should they achieve at or near the upper projection there's no way anyone could see this as "TEPID."  [more]



This is NOT a trader's market anymore. . . .

October 13, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: DPS , ATVI

Jim Cramer is completely dead wrong along with 99% of the entire population of Motley Fool CAPS to label the stock market as merely a "Traders market" where the only way to make money is to frantically trade in and out of stocks like a nutcase on acid.  [more]



You want Capitulation? You Got it!

October 10, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: FEEDQ , BBY , ATVI

Ok.. *whew*  Spent all day buying stock... Poured over $1,100 buying up shares of several companies...  Applied Materials, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Activision Blizzard, and AgFeed Industries.

You know that 300 point bounce in the first 10-20 minutes of trading this morning?  I spent the bulk of my money at the bottom... right at the bottom of that 600 point sell off burst.

Today was a buying frenzy for me.  [more]




October 09, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GS , C , NCC.DL2

INVESTOR A =  8 yr. old kid with Dad's Credit Card.


INVESTOR A:  "Oh Gee Daddy lookie here... Goldman Sachs trading at a P/E of 6.1.  I want that one daddy!  I want that! I wanna wanna wanna it!  200 shares at $101.35"

-------> Father, "Ok son...they say the market makes ya rich so let's buy some."

INVESTOR B:  "What's That? You don't like our Mutual Fund?  You wantcha money back?....


INVESTOR A:  "Awww gee Daddy.... Goldman Sachs is down another $10 today!  But ahh heck it's P/E Ratio is now .6 x earnings.  Buy some more daddy!  I wanna! I wanna 100 more shares daddy."

--------> Father, "Your right son! Goldman Sachs has been around for decades and they are a fine company...fine business that there Goldman Sachs... 100 shares it is!"

INVESTOR B:  "What?  You're still with us?  No. No.. Glad to have you.. just that I thought we liquidated all of our customers by now...Everyone's redeeming their cash.  What's that?  You want out too?  What?  So does your brother, your uncle, and your parents?  You seriously have 26 friends, who are also our customers and they want out? ok.."


INVESTOR A:   "Waaaaaaah!  Daddy.... *sniffle*  Goldman Sachs *sniffle* Waahhh!  They went out of business!  For no reason at all *sniffle*  except for those *&^%  Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds.
*&^%  Waaaaah!

---------->  Father,  "Your right son.  Sorry son.  That's the breaks.  We'll have to sell our house and live in the streets.  But... one day... when all of the hedge fund and mutual fund companies go out of business and stocks are priced at a penny a share..We shall give it another go!"




Market Meltdown Solution: Stop Giving them what they want!

October 08, 2008 – Comments (1)

I figured it out folks!  Here's the solution to fixing our economic troubles and market meltdown situation. 

STOP Giving Wall Street What they Want!

For example:

1) Wall Street wanted a Bailout of Fannie and Freddie:          Market falls over 500 points

2) Wall Street wanted a Bailout of AIG:  Market Falls another 500 points

3) Wall Street Wanted a $700 Billion Bailout of Mortgage Debt:  Market Falls 1,000 points

4) Wall Street Wanted a Global 50 Basis Points Federal Funds Rate cut:  Market Falls another 200 points

Folks... Everytime the Opening Bell rings an Angel is not getting it's wings here!

Face the facts....  The solution is to do the exact opposite of what the Wall Street crybabies want.

1) Wall Street Wants a Bailout of Fannie and Freddie:   Instead demolish the entire building, ransack and take away whatever positive cash flow it has and let the companies die.

2) Wall Street wants a bailout of AIG?   Let it fail and throw all of the Insurance Policy Documents that AIG manages onto the floor of Wall Street and create a Bon Fire.

3) Wall Street wants a $700 Billion Bailout of Mortgage Debt?    Instead demand all Financial Institutions give you $100 billion dollars and do an Eminent Domain campaign of taking over homes and properties and put it all up on E-BAY for $1 per house until you have $700 billion.

4) Wall Street wants a 50 Basis Point Cut in the Key Fed. Funds Rate global wide?   Globally skyrocket that fed funds rate to 10%.

See?  Simple solutions to life's most complex problems.  [more]



MOTLEY FOOL: Outperform by a Negative 200,000% today!

October 06, 2008 – Comments (2)

Stock Advisor 18.83%-10.86%+29.69%Champion Funds 0.62%-15.11%+15.73%Hidden Gems-2.26%-16.54%+14.28%Income Investor 0.52%-5.73%+6.24%Rule Breakers-16.12%-20.29%+4.18%Inside Value-12.27%-16.30%+4.03%Global Gains-33.33%-25.70%-7.63%

Global Gains.... minus 33.33%
Inside Value  minus 12.27%
Rule Breakers minus 16.12%
Hidden Gems minus 2.26%

Champion Funds and Income Investors give you a whopping 1/2 percent.
Stock Advisor boasts a positive 18.83% still but that's with a massive 10.86% decline today.

"We at Motley Fool Recommend a Successful Buy and Hold strategy that apparently doesn't even work for us..."  [more]



Good day to do a Pair Down trade into a stock you know

October 06, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ATVI

What I call a "Pair Down" trade is suffering a massive loss in order to end up with more shares of a DIFFERENT company than the one you wish to liquidate out of.

Company A:  $18 a share           LIQUIDATE
Company B:  $9 a share           BUY BUY BUY

Personally.. I love Video Games.. I know Video Games.... So my portfolio will benefit if I simply throw away my Steel Stock and buy a Video Game stock.  I obviously don't understand Steel and commodities in general.  Personally, I can't stomache commodities anymore and plan never to return to this sector.

ATVI    ACTIVISION/BLIZZARD   has plenty of video games in it's reportoire that I know and love and play to this day.  I can't wait until Diablo III and Starcraft II come out and I hope my computer is fast enough to play them at a reasonable speed.  [more]

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