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Varchild2008 (85.33)

October 2011

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2

Gamestop = $30 says Jim Cramer

October 27, 2011 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

On Jim Cramer's Mad Money during the lightning round took a call from someone asking about Gamestop being a buy despite the long term uncertainty.

Jim Cramer basically said don't get greedy, the stock goes to $30 then Ka-Ching Ka-Ching!

I'm happy with $30....   But, unlike the caller and Jim Cramer I have absolutely NO uncertainty about Gamestop's future.... None what-so-ever.....

I'll let everyone else worry about Gamestop's future while I keep buying on the dips.  [more]

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5

3 Conceptions That Need to Live

October 26, 2011 – Comments (4)

Read today's front article and went *Aww!!!!  I never knew that!!!!!  boy am I shocked!!!! shocked!!!!!!!

WOWZERS!!!!!*

Well... I didn't. fall prey to this *TRICK*  where the author creates his own "Strawman" arguments and then knocks them down....and then somehow we are left thinking the situation with CHINA, MIDEAST OIL, and so on is A-OK.  [more]

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See? Varchild TOLD YOU SO!!!!

October 25, 2011 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: AMZN , NFLX

Remember when I kept screaming on my Blog and in replies to other people's Comments on the AMZN chart that AMAZON = low low low margins...lots of spending.....and what happens when spending keeps climbing while sales growth slips?

Well???  Now we know.   Amazon just reported third quarter earnings was down 73%.  Income from over 200 Million to just over 60 million year over year.

That is quite a slip.....But can it entirely be blamed on "Spending?"  I doubt it.  I am not listening in on the Earnings Conference Call but I suspect the EUROZONE Slowdown is to blame.

Amazon is far more exposed internationally versus some Bricks and Mortar competitors like Best Buy and Sears and Lowes and Home Depot and CVS and Walgreens and yes...my 1 and only investment stock Gamestop.

So with the collapse and huge REALITY CHECK with (NFLX) and now (AMZN) maybe Wall Street will start to understand that there is strength in having a HYBRID business of BRICKS + DIGITAL.....

Instead of Borders and Tower Records = 100% Bricks.
AMAZON and NETFLIX = 100% Digital.

Hey! There is a key reason why Apple chose to open up retail stores....

There is a reason why SONY decided to try its hand in Sony Stores (albeit they have a very small number of them).

Ultimately....There's key advantages in having Bricks Stores right there advertising, marketing, and selling your merchandise.....versus hoping for Online Shopper Growth to Sustain itself in a down economy.

There are advantages to BRICKS....folks.....Seriously.... DO YOU BELIEVE ME NOW???

(FAKE VERIZON COMMERCIAL)  BELIEVE ME NOW????  BELIEVE ME NOW??? GOOD!  [more]

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5

Invest on a Hunch: DWA

October 19, 2011 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: DWA

Shifting gears to a stock I don't have any position in and do not plan to take a position in at all within the next 72 hours.

(DWA)

Dreamworks animation has what I believe to be an epic blockbuster in Puss 'N Boots.
The stock price is absoutely insanely ridiculously embarrassingly cheap right now.

Do you like Double Baggers for Christmas?

If you think my HUNCH is right then perhaps I will be right on this cause that's all I have...a hunch...

When I see an animated cartoon movie coming out that I badly want to see myself....that clues me in that something special is happening with Dreamworks or whomever happens to have created the magic....

Is Puss 'N Boots going to be the next Lion King?     No..... Probably not..... But it doesn't have to be.

It only has to beat all other films in the release schedule week after week and produce solid earnings for four - six weeks....in order to clearly show Wall Street is wrong to price this one as low as it is.

I say $36.00 a share if my Hunch that THIS ONE....PUSS N BOOTS..... Is going to SHOCK and AWE the entire Movie Industry in sales.

Of course I am prepared to be proven wrong here...Unlike President Obama, I am not perfect.
(That was a dig at President Obama's statement in an ABC interview in which he said he made all the right decisions and wouldn't change a thing if he had to do his 1st term of office all over again).  [more]

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3

Gamestop is a NINJA

October 18, 2011 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

Blockbuster failed because they never decided to play on NETFLIX's turf.... They tried to do something like a NETFLIX....But, it still forced you to go to Blockbuster.  It was never online and you select your movie at the touch of a mouse click.

Blockbuster tried to get into Television Movie Rentals Streamed  to your set.  But, that forced you to purchase a Blockbuster Compatible Hardware Device to have access to that.

2 Strikes?  And the third strike being that Blockbuster's bricks and mortar weren't merely just leased buildings, but owned?  3 Strikes and your out!

Sames goes with Tower Records...and Borders.....  These companies didn't adapt to a changing environment.

Retail outlets that aren't QUICK and NIMBLE like a NINJA will not survive.


In a 100% digital universe in which Pre-Owned Physical Games disappears:

A) Gamestop still has the Pre-Owned hardware / accessories business.

B) Gamestop has recently expanded their base of pre-owned merchandise into APPLE products.

http://www.gamestop.com/collection/announcing-awesomeness

C) Gamestop selling nothing but Digital Copies of Games is a margin decline from Pre-Owned Physical perhaps but a margin improvement from NEW SKU Physical Sales.

D) Gamestop has Spawn Labs and one could speculate that this system could be used as a Video Game Rental service.

Not sure what profit margins look like for a Digital Game Rental business...

But...REDBOX competitor ceases to exist if it remains physical rental box company....and physical disappears...
leaving OnLive and Spawn Labs to clean up the market share.

So....Gamestop has WAYS OUT....Like a NINJA....Gamestop can adapt to the environment and strike at the right time into market places and technologies they haven't gone before.            

P.S.  Got an opinion?  Want to tell this 100% fully invested into GAMESTOP as the absolute only investment that he is completely wrong?  Write your thoughts and make fun of my opinions all you want (as long as it is within Motley Fool Guidelines) in the comments section below!

  [more]

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1

I don't like to SQUINT when I game

October 17, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

With the popularity of Tablets, many people think they will take over the Console Gaming Industry.

Do you enjoy SQUINTING when you play video games???

First Person Death Matches..... Space Ship Fighting Games.....Flight Sims....

Do you like you SQUINT???

No one will make a 41 inch Screen Tablet... That is silly....That is not the point of a tablet.
It is meant to be mobile...

Yes people will play games on their iPADs....  But, video gamers aren't going to look at their
42 inch mega screen LED or PLASMA televisions and say,

"Eehhhhhh   I like my 9.7 inch screen  iPad 2"

Wow!  Really???   You are going to sign up to a Deathmatch tournaments, where you need quick reflexes to take down your targets....and you need to stay alive.....You are going to do this on a 9.7 inch screen instead of your PC or MACs  20+inch screen or your Televisions 40+ inch screen?

ARE YOU GOING TO SQUINT YOUR WAY TO VICTORY IN BATTLEFIELD 3????

NO  I DIDN'T THINK SO!!!

So why is it that CNBC  Fast Money thinks you will?  [more]

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3

Varchild is Shorting Jim Chanos

October 17, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GME

So Jim Chanos sticks his neck out and says Gamestop is a 100% Bricks and Mortar company with thousands of stores of which they own and can't get rid of very easily.

Hmm...

That's pretty much the gist of what he said right there...

Except:

A)  Gamestop is Game Informer with nearly 6 million subscribers and +50,000 new subscribers on average per month.

B)  All of these BRICKS and MORTAR are just leases.   Gamestop could always decide not to renue some of these leases and they would be completely out of the Brick.  That is a far cry from actually owning 6,500 buildings.  You are essentially just a renter...Renters can get out of their rent much easier than a owner....just ask a Home Owner about that Chanos!

C) Impulse has taken quite a huge chunk of Digital Sales for Deus Ex: Human Revolution for Gamestop.   Especially considering that Gamestop at least for a time if not entirely stopped selling physical copies of Deus Ex.  Therefore, there was an artificially inaccurate PC sales figure in September's NPD report (showing a drop of 4% instead of a rise).  That happens when 6,500+ stores aren't selling physical copies of Deus Ex.

D) Kongregate has several times (I witnessed it myself) shown over 50,000 online playing nearly 50,000 flash based games on the web.  That's pretty impressive considering kids are back to school.

E) Jolt Online remains a Mobile App developer for Gamestop that continues to produce interesting titles.  Not much of a needle mover in Gamestop's overall business, but  a solid example of how
DIGITAL  Gamestop is.....Analog by Butt CHANOS!!

F)  A Growing wave of Shorts/Puts/Anti-Gamestoppers  viewing the company as a Value Trap point to Redbox.

Well?  I point to Spawn Labs.  Whose to say Spawn Labs won't become a Rental Service of sorts once it goes live early next year?

Would you want to hop into your car....drive all the way down to the nearest redbox...Then hop out and mess around with the Redbox machine renting a Video Game....then drive all the way back to your house...

Then after you are done playing the game....Drive back into your car to Redbox....Deposit the Video Game Rental....Drive all the way back home?

How about saving some Gas Money and with SPAWN LABS you can just check out a game with a few touches of a button once you have Spawn Labs software installed on your Tablet!

Can you imagine that?  You are at a Coffee House....Sipping on a Latte......playing all kinds of video games on your Tablet through Spawn Labs? 

Never once caring about the fact that the nearest Redbox is 5 blocks away from you?

Gamestop should fear Redbox???

How about REDBOX fearing SPAWN LABS?

How about demanding JIM CHANOS do his homework on Gamestop before speaking about a company he obviously knows NOTHING about.

D)  I haven't even gotten into Gamestop's iPhone, iPod, iPad refurbishment, trade-in program!!!
Or the up coming Gamestop Endorsed Gaming Tablet and bluetooth joysticks..

E)   I haven't even talked about Gamestop paying off a huge Chunk of their Senior Notes debt this month.

F)  I haven't even gotten into Gamestop's big time share buyback program...

G) I haven't even gotten into the fact that Gamestop's has stood by their full year guidance for the year.

I) I haven't even gotten to the fact that Gamestop has already announced in a press release / interview of sorts that Battliefield 3 sales have reached record numbers!

J) Oh and Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 + Zelda + Halo is coming in the next 2 months.  [more]

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3

Guess what? Every Analyst was WRONG again!

October 13, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BBY , GME , EA

Given the string of NPD New Sku Video Game Sales Reports over the Summer being abysmal, I bet the following statement I will make will make you accuse me of LYING.

The Video Game Industry as a whole in the 2nd Quarter of 2011 has sold more hardware + software + digital + accessories + rentals + Dnloadable Content + misc...   Than it has sold in the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

In fact....The increase is 1% over 2010 Q2.   That is an INCREASE!!!!!! 

Given how poorly video gaming stocks performed all Summer Long.....How in the world can this be?

Well.... Not until October 5th did NPD Group release its Q2 2011 Games Industry: Total Consumer Spend report.

This report is an absolute BOMBSHELL in so many ways.....

1)  Retail Stores that diversify into DLCs and Digital and Mobile and So On will prosper...

2)  New SKU Software Sales and to some extent New Hardware Sales have been the culprit over the Summer... Used Hardware, however, has filled the GAP in many respects.

3)  Those Motley Fool All Stars that label GAMESTOP as BLOCKBUSTER or TOWER RECORDS simply do not get how diversified Gamestop is right now.

Even Best Buy sells Downloadable Content and has their own Website for Mail Order....and so on...
Walmart allows you to stream DEMOs of games over their website....

The reality is Retail is Adapting and the Video Game Industry has done VERY WELL overall despite the 9+% unemployment rate.   Despite the SPOOK STORIES over Consumer Spending....
Despite the SPOOK STORIES over "no one buys anything except 99 cent Angry Birds social games" spook stories...

Yes I know Holloween is coming soon....  That doesn't matter...  What matter's is the truth.

Read the Truth for yourself ALL STARS!!!

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/pressreleases/pr_111005  [more]

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3

Mitt Romney is an abject coward!

October 11, 2011 – Comments (2)

It was MITT Romney in a recent debate that supported our current Social Security System that is deep in the red....refusing to get behind the Conservative Reform that we always wanted....either place the retirement fund into the hands of individuals and out of the hands of the FEDs.....or END IT!!!

And what does Mitt Romney Say?  Oh yea....Vote for me and I will *FIX IT* 

I will go and *FIX IT*    Social Security is awwwwweeeessssssoooooommmmeeee stuff !! weeeeeeee.

Forget the fact that it is deep in the red....that it consists right now of nothing but IOUs that are now being cashed into the Treasury and the Treasury has to either Borrow Money from China or Print Money in order to mail out the Social Security Checks each month.

Right.. We all want to jump on-board the COWARD-MOBILE....

Chris Christy's endorsement was a forgone conclusion as us Conservatives have tracked his liberalism for quite sometime...

Let's put it perfectly simple here.....

DON'T VOTE LIKE A COWARD thinking that we have to select someone based on some nonsensical notion of "A Well Established candidate has the best chance to beat Obama" when we already found out in 2008 (something us Conservatives already knew since we were born) that Established Political Candidates that are Squeamish Cowards when it comes to reforming our Government..... THEY NEVER WIN!!!!!

NO MORE COWARDS!!!!!

People think I'm crazy investing in only 1 stock (GME).....  Well guess what??  I ain't no Coward like some ALL STARS on Motley Fool bailing out on their Green Thumbs even while the stock price keeps rallying and rallying....  up 6 trading days in a row now.

GME is up almost 25% year over year in share price....  It's simple... GME = CLOUD PLAY.

Gamestop is reforming their entire business around and it is working with flying colors!

It is a huge plus for Video Game Shoppers now that they have a multitude of ways to save money buying a Video Game if they need to spare some coin...

It is a huge plus for us Investors and for the Employees of Gamestop.... Business is doing well...it is doing extremely well at Gamestop....

Not just Gamestop....  THE ENTIRE VIDEO GAMING SECTOR IS BOOMING RIGHT NOW!!!!!!

STOP BEING A COWARD!!!!!

We have all of these candidates that are TRUE CONSERVATIVES....

And yet we keep seeing ROMNEY 1st place alone in 1st place..... or tied for 1st.....

What a bunch of Abject Cowardliness that will only ensure Barack Obama wins.

THANK YOU AMERICA!!!!    THANK YOU FOR GIVING ME A MEGA-LIBERAL LEFTIST for my GOP NOMINEE!!!!  YIPPE!!!

I can pull the lever for MEGA LIB    1 ...

or                                MEGA LIB    2....

Hmm......Wow!!  Fun choice!!!!  [more]

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How Grass Roots is OWS...Really?

October 10, 2011 – Comments (4)

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/10/10/political-party-paying-occupy-wall-street-protesters/

The article above from HOT AIR (conservative news blog site)  showcases an advertisement from
Working families organization looking to hire people to do things like "Direct Action" which of course is a code word for astroturfing.

So, how many OWS protestors are there because they are getting paid to be there?

I don't remember anyone giving me any money when I protested in a TEA PARTY rally.
Michigan's 1st TEA Party rally in fact.  [more]

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5

Fake News: Earth Downgraded to Junk

October 07, 2011 – Comments (5)

Fake News: Earth Downgraded to Junk

News Bulletin (June 2013):
  In a surprise turn of events S&P, Moodys, and Fitch have all in unison downgraded Planet Earth to ZZZ-  effectively junk status, the lowest rating possible.  Outlook for Planet Earth's Credit Rating is Severely Negative.

S&P went even further than Moody's and Fitch and lowered their outlook for the entire Solar System
to Negative.  This implies that within 6 months, S&P could lower the Solar System's Credit Rating.

Planet Earth does not know what to do!  If they continue to print more cash, inflation will continue going higher and right now it is a massive struggle to purchase 1/2 a loaf of bread no matter what country you live in.

President Obama held an immediate, impromptu press conference to declare that all of this wasn't his fault, but was instead the fault of those who didn't vote for him in the 2012 election.

The recent arrival from the Zyberg Aliens from the Andromeda Galaxy vehemently disagreed with President Obama's explanation for the credit crisis.  The Zyberg Aliens wouldn't have traveled to
billions of miles away to Planet Earth if it weren't for the fact that Earth's Credit Crisis was starting to cause a Contagion spreading from planet to planet, galaxy to galaxy.

The Zyberg Aliens have sought to help straighten out the mess Human Kind has caused but their advice amounted to more SOCIALISM, Money Printing, and everything else "Occupy Wallstreet" protestors wanted... In other words, more of the same!

Rush Limbaugh has been a major detractor for the Zyberg Aliens, pointing out how they aren't any better than President Obama himself.

In other news, APPLE Computer Company has just released a Television that will follow you around your house so you can always have President Obama in view!  Astonishing!  [more]

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3

Motley Fool All Stars asleep at the wheel

October 07, 2011 – Comments (6)

GME remains my only investment and it grows on a regular basis...as I keep accumulating more and more of it.

As far as I can tell this Holiday Season will showcase the Sony VITA along with perhaps the best top quality release schedule ever.

Gears of War 3 sells triple platinum in its 1st week.

Madden 2012 sold approx. 1.4 million copies in its 1st week

according to either an article on Gamespot or another article I tracked down just surfing the internet.
Obviously we will find out how both games have done in September next week Thursday after the closing bell when NPD report releases.

So where are the Motley Fool All Stars ???    Battlefield 3 releases October 25th!!

So where are the GREEN THUMBS from the Motley Fool All Stars???? where???

The stock remains at 2 stars despite the Winter Holiday Season looking bullish as all get out.

Just today analyst Baird came out with an Outperform rating on Gamestop.

But....The Motley Fool All Stars remain asleep at the wheel on my stock.  [more]

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