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Varchild2008 (84.46)

December 2008



2 plays: Invest in CRNT and Trade HURC

December 31, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CRNT , HURC

Decided to invest in CRNT....I doubt this stock goes anywhere for awhile but it's in my dream portfolio because of it's 2010 breakout nature I expect from it.  I think CRNT is a great investment at $5 or less.

Trading HURC... Motely Fool Hidden Gems pick (I think).... Yes already investing in (MSM)... But I figure I can bounce off this a few points, trade out of it, and throw the profits MSM's way.

In the meantime...

HURC + CRNT = 2 Small Caps looking for a January Bounce back.

So breakout the champaigne bottles I think January is going to be nice:-)  [more]



2010 Dream Portfolio...Varchild's opinion

December 30, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: RHI , MSM , WFC

Given the unpredictable nature of a bear market expected in much of 2009....A new investor putting together a portfolio of stocks (and I would assume some Conservative/Bond mutual funds on the side to hedge them), should take a close examination of my DREAM PORTFOLIO for 2010.

That's right.  Think 2010...not 2009....and your stock picking skills go way up.  Why?  Cause it is about finding companys doing badly in their share prices but expected to do extremely well during an economic recovery expected in 2010.

Here's my DREAM PORTFOLIO for 2010 for all to consider:

1) SNHY:    Sun Hydraulics will benefit greatly from a global recovery in 2010 along with indirect benefits of an Obama Spending Spree.  It's international enough to avoid the high risk of higher taxation if Obama goes that route.

They sell their products not just to the commercial vehicle and boat industry, but also to to support Navy / Army vessels and vehicles.  Their customer base is huge...  Frankly, I would jump for joy every time any war happens like in Israel / Hamas....because anything can trigger a spike in demand for Hydraulic Valves and Cartridges.  Not a sexy sounding product but Sun Hydraulics is a Sexy Company with a great 1st half of the year Share Price Growth potential.

Enjoy the dividend payments!

2) CRNT:    My most recent Stock of the Day stock fell a few cents almost every day I recommended.  But, I stand by Ceragon Networks today as I did back in March 2008.

A) Expansion into India

B) Million Dollar Order in Africa

C) 30$ Million Share Buyback program which was long overdue and welcome since the 2007 share dillution.

D) With 4 solid earnings quarters under their belt they have a very healthy cash flow to cope with any slowdown.  Solid management has lead to earnings victories in 2008 and that means a much better 2009 and 2010 is in store than you think.

CERAGON today...but they will be here Tomorrow!

3) RHI)  Robert Half International already gained over 3$ on their share price when I outperformed in a while back under the consternation of a not to be named CAPS player.

Now Robert Half International has become a DREAM STOCK for 2010.  They carry an 11 cents a share dividend... But more importantly..

They will blossom in 2009 and 2010 as a force to assist so many sectors of the economy.  They provide consulting services as well as payroll hiring management services.  They help out the little guy whose looking to get a better paying job or is in fear of unemployment prospects.

RHI is the market leader in a market that is the new "BOOM" market.  Now.. It may not be what Dave and Tom Gardner thinks is the next BOOM market in their market report.

Some get it right when they outperform companies like PAYX  that does consulting services and maangement services with payroll / paychecks.  But man oh man did Standard and Poor's completely miss the boat on RHI.  RHI trades for $19+ and S&P marked it down in October with a Strong Sell rating to $10.  They cut their target price from $17 to $10!

BAH!  This one's got more upside.  And it's my favorite in the sector that I call the Business Services Sector.

4) MSM)  MSM Industrials Direct.  Regardless who gets infrastructure contracts from Obama-Spending-O'-Rama, MSM Industrials Direct will get a phone call everytime a tool or equipment parts, or supplies run out.  Need more staples for your staple....need more nails for your Nail gun?
Just need some 3M Post it Notes?  Whatever it is you need to build a bridge or a road or fix the Furnace at your local High School.... MSM Industrials Direct has it  (minus the Brick and Motar that (FAST) FASTENAL has to pay for).

Oh my God.. This has to be the Housing Market has bottomed hurray stock of 2010.
20 cents a share dividend is enormously generous and beats all other companys like FASTENAL in their sector.  Forget HD or Lowes...Forget Staples....Buy direct!  The GSA contract helps keep their cash flow / margins alive and well.

5) WFC)  Wells Fargo is a market leader that unfortunately the share price has already recovered almost 90% of what it lost in 2008.  But, should that scare you away from a market leader that wants to give you 34 cents a share quarterly for buying their shares?

It's getting TARP cash isn't the catalyst.  The catalyst are the 3 consecutive earnings beats in the toughest market conditions for banks in the history of America.

And to sit on the sidelines because it went up too much is naieve.  The yield still sits pretty above 4% and last time I checked a share price of a market leader with 4+% yield almost always means BUY.  Due to the run-up.. buy a little and wait this one down or enjoy the ride up. 


HOG)  at $15 most of the downside for 2009 is priced in.  Dividend isn't safe in my opinion so it did not make it.

HMC)  Positive news in China does not offset the fact that they got rid of their dividend and 2009 does not look good in America. 2010 is better but how much is unknown.

GME)  Ignore the "nintendo is direct selling their DS games so Gamestop stinks" garbage and focus on this fact.... By end of 2010:

A) A new Grand Theft Auto will be released.

B) Final Fantasy 13 releases

C) Starcraft II & Diablo III release

How can anyone look at that and say GME isn't a buy?

Why does GME not make my dream portfolio?  Too many stores from Funcoland buy-outs.
They need to dump some of their expenses and reduce their inventory.  Too many used games sitting collecting dust.




Did you know GM Gen. Motors is getting a Bail Out!?

December 23, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CRNT , GM , F

So many co-workers were eyeballing GM, Ford as investment opportunities because they were getting a Government Bailout!

Did you know GM and Ford are getting a government Bailout?????   Yippe!

Citigroup got their bailout and boy oh boy is that one helluva stock investment there...that there Citigroup.

In short....  *ahem*


------>  End of Conservatively Biased / Slanted  Rant

Real investments are with companies with real potential....

I mentioned 2 stocks recently as Stocks of the Day....

MED     Medifast

SNHY    Sun Hydraulics.

These are the companys... the types of companies that investors invest in.  They are solid companies with superb management and CEOs and Board of Directors....And they have expanded into international corporations with ever increasing product lineups.

Economic Downturn isn't going to hurt solidly run corporations with a portfolio strong enough withstand deep recessions.

This is why I am going to give a shout out to. . . . . . . .

(CRNT)  Ceragon Networks  as my STOCK OF THE DAY!  [more]



Pairing your losses is NOT the same as Trading

December 19, 2008 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP , MNST

Demondoug got upset with me for revealing that I sold off my entire stake of DPS to buy it all back a couple days later.  Personally, I did that with a lot of my long term investments...

It's call PAIRING your losses.....

For example... Had you bought into (HANS)....A stock DemonDoug prefers over (DPS) and is a great stock with a 1-hit wonder in MONSTER Energy Drink + It's Coffee derivative.... back when it was trading over $40 a share and sat there doing nothing but watching it freefall to as low as $20 (give or take).

Then in my opinion that is irresponsible.

Granted... Motely Fool doesn't believe you should care about freefalling stock prices because in the long term the stock prices will bounce back whenever you have a great company in your portfolio.

However, even MOTELY FOOL still believes that if you have reason good enough to think your stock is getting absolutely hammered and will continue getting hammered in the next few months like both (HANS) and (DPS) have had to deal with.... Then they do state that it is ok to SELL off your stake and buy back in lower...

They also say it's ok to sell off an investment just because the share price was driven so far unrealistically high that it would be foolish not to sell it off. 

If you are a subscriber to Stock Advisor....  Sell off my DPS Stake around $16.75 to buy back $1+ less may or may not have been a good move on my part.  But I personally prefer to get a better price for my shares.

Getting a better price for your shares by PAIRING your losses can also free up additional cash.

With (AMAT) I was able to have an extra 50 shares of that company in my stake my selling off my entire stake to buy back in at a cheaper price.  This method works more than it fails for me and is something I plan on continuing to do.

So if (DPS) or (HANS) runs smack into an unrealistic Hedge Fund Short Selling Assault.... Why as a long term investor sit there and take it when you can Pair your Losses and come out of the assault with perhaps a larger stake of shares and more money on the sidelines?  [more]



Dr. Stevia and Mr. Snapple

December 18, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP

So... Dr. Pepper makes an announcement that they are nearly ready to release their first Stevia beverage drink to compete with whatever Coca-Boring-Ola and Wepsi are releasing.... Share price shoots up 5%..... Still about 5% up as I am tying this. 

What is Stevia?  It's an herb basically... Some leaf grabbed, mixed into a drink....from somewhere in the great continent of Africa...And why should anyone care?  Works like Splenda and Equa for reducing calories, but it is an all natural ingrediant.  "Whole Foods" would be proud if they had any stores left!

Moral of the story is that it pays to be a Dr. Stevia and Mr. Snapple investor.....
Oh and the other coin flip is "HANS" Blix Corp hasn't made a Stevia announcement.  Apparently, "HANS" Blix is still trying to produce the next cover art for their next batch of Monster Energy Drinks in a Can.

I sold all of my shares and bought em all back at the nice $15 range a few days ago.  This allowed me to enjoy the ride up knowing all 290 shares were for a much cheaper price than they will be in the future (considering that the IPO was $26.50).

Now investors today in Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, if they did what I did, have shares at a price enormously cheap for a multi-billion corporation that is building a massive facility in California to push out all of their beverages.

Dr. Stevia / Snapple   may have been Dr. Hyde since it's IPO.....Crashing down as low as $13.44 or so.  But, after the share price hit bottom it has been a nice, steady, climb up.

Recently in an investor conference it was revealed that the C.E.O. Larry Young will not make any new acquisitions (nothing major at least).  However, he will use the money to pay down debt and buy back shares.

When it comes to long term investing isn't that what you want out of a company?  Steady growth, declining debt, share buyback?  Acquisitions are always nice but not when a company has a debt to pay down.  Dividends are also nice and DPS doesn't offer those.  But, as soon as that debt goes away...The closer we get to the announcement of Dividend payments to shareholders.    [more]



Stock Pick of the Day: Sun Hydraulics Corp (SNHY)

December 12, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SNHY

Last time I declared MEDIFAST (MED) as Stock Pick of the Day and it has since risen to new heights almost every day like clockwork.  That stock has been hot and it will remain hot for a few more trading days.

Now... I draw people's attention away from GM, Ford, Chysler, or American Axle....or Etc.   Sure, share prices will drop like no tomorrow.... But so what?  Bad investment is still a bad investment.

Because with today's market crash about to explode out of the gate..... The Stock Pick of the day HAS TO BE an international company that produces parts for construction vehicles as well as boats/vessels and mobile applications and etc. 

And that brings me to Sun Hydraulics Corp that produces Hydraulic Cartridges and Valves.  I personally made $500 off this company 1Q of 2008.... This is a great international company on a growth path that simply hit a snag from the economic crisis going on and will come out of it just fine and perhaps stronger than ever.  Why?

Well?  President Obama promises tremendous spending in public works / construction.
Won't all of those construction workers require hydraulic valves/cartridges whenever things break down for repairs? Of course.  There's potential here for a solid 2009.

SNHY has a low 9.02 P/E and a Forward P/E 14.27...... This means that any major weakness in this share price is necessary before plucking any cash into it.  But, it also means that investors expect a slower 2009 for Sun Hydraulics.  I think they are wrong and I see tremendous growth for 2009.  Be a contrarian!

Stock price has already risen +4$ and new money needs to wait for this to come down..... Perhaps with today's market sell-off it drops $2 or more! You got yourself a Forward P/E of around 12 and that's your buy point!

Or to put better..... I'd place a buy on this no higher than:  $13 a share.  (But I think we see $12 on the dip)

At $13 a share or less that should lift the Yield to 2.5 - 3%.  $12 a share will push the yield closer to the breath taking 4% yield investors love.  Oh that's right.  The company has fully backed their 9 cents a share dividend.  That's a huge sign that the company sees growth ahead enough to support these payments.

So... Keep SNHY on your watch list and see if this thing drops like a rock and if so...
Ya got Stock of the Day material here:-)  [more]



The Little Penny Stock That Could. . .SWTX.OB

December 09, 2008 – Comments (4)

You won't find, anymore, swtx.ob on Fool.Com.  But this penny stock trading today for 87 cents a share spiked to $1.87 back a few months ago...why?  Because this is one the few penny stocks actually making a profit!  They actually have a solid, positive, cash flow.  They are actually making new research and development success with their energy saving window/glass film technology.

Southwall Technology is the penny stock that could make anyone a fortune if they keep up the success they are having into next year and beyond. 

This company as recent as late 2006 was losing money and not profitable due to mostly their involvement with the DISPLAY sector.  Why were they losing money in the Displays?  Because they weren't doing LCDs.... They were doing film technology for Plasma displays and Plasmas aren't profitable business when everyone's buying LCDs.

That business was dumped.... and ever since dumping that, they have right-sized their company and are on a path to success.  This is an international company having retail sellers of their XIR/Heat Mirror and other technologies throughout the world.  They manufacture solar controlling films that block U/V Rays while keeping the Sun's light in.  This simply saves air conditioning costs.

Pres. Elect Barack Obama knows nothing about Southwall's technology and I doubt Southwall gets a piece of the infrastructure spending pie.  However, who knows?  Maybe Southwall benefits indirectly somehow through the actions of the upcoming president?

I can think of lots of companys that have a possibility to do well and the broad based rally we have seen on stocks shows that Wall Streeters are treating virtually every stock as a beneficiary of Obama-Nomics.  So, imagine if Southwall does get a boost at a time it is able to do well without it?

Just this year they announced gaining new distributers/sellers in China and India.  This opens 2 of the worlds fastest growing economies to Southwall Technologies.

What about insider buying?  There has been 1 instance of 1 director, Mary, buying 500 shares in Q2 of 2008.  There has been NO selling of common stock to speak of from insiders.

I have a laundry list of penny stocks and all of them except Southwall have dropped through the floor....SWTX.OB (look it up) continues to spike at times and basically hover up 8% or more year to date.

It is difficult to find ANY STOCK in this market that has grown it's EPS in 2008.....  Mainstays like Coca Cola, Pepsi, Hanson Natural, Tyson Foods, Oil Companys, Steel Companys, littany of companys have dropped over 30% year to date......

So... If you want to invest in a penny stock then you really can't find much better than a Penny Stock that actually has potential rather than increasing Debt.  The Long term debt for Southwall is dropping each quarter and rests at .23... With a cash flow around a P/E of 2.4.

SWTX.OB trades at a P/E of 3.8.  That's just 1.4 P/E above it's cash flow.  This should be trading at least a 5-6 P/E.  This stock is justified to be $1.40 where it was trading mostly in Q2.

EPS has grown from under 20 cents to now almost 23 cents a share.  [more]



Obama the Brilliant Supply Side Economist

December 08, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SNHY , GENC , MSM

Why are the markets trading up today?  I'll tell why.  It's because President Elect Barack Obama is an absolute Genius.. Actually he's just a teleprompter that gets his Ques from people smarter than him.  But, he's got lots of brilliant people surrouding him to shape his economic plan to what works.  [more]



Perhaps Today's Best Stock Pick is. . .Medifast

December 04, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: MED

(MED) Medifast.

I like this company a lot and have had it on my watch list for quite sometime now this year.
They have met or beat earnings estimates all year long and while they will be impacted by the recession, they are a defensive play on the economy.  Given their stock price is more than 50% less than it's 52-week high and yet only down 14.8% year to date....This stock is extremely strong and bullish.

The company engages in the production and selling of Dietatary meals and vitamins for disease prevention.  Even in a down economy, people don't stop taking diets or vitamins. 

If the stock falls to as low as $3.50 then it becomes a ridiculous screaming buy.
Medifast at these levels is easily a double bagger and over the long term it could be your portfolio's best performing stock (period).

They have recently announced a subject matter expert team of 7 scientists to act as their Quality Assurance as well as Research and Development team.  They will assess existing programs and meals for quality and come up with new programs, meals, products, etc.

In a down economy when you see a Small Cap company with

5 year sales growth of 46.7%
Gross Margins 75%
Net Profit Margin 5%
Operating Margin 8%
PreTax Margin 7.5%

and best of all:

46% EPS growth rate with a P/E Cash flow around 6.3....

Medifast on any major DIP is a buy.  [more]



Summary of Bear Market 2008 in 30 words

December 03, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: MSM , ATVI

"Bear Sterns, Lehman Collapses, Credit Freeze, TARP Bailout of every company that dolls out loans, mortgages, insurance, Credit Freeze Lifted, Citigroup flops, Credit Freeze back, DOW 7500....Companys cut jobs."

My point?  When you look at it that way in a brief summary...The dire analysts out there screaming about how it will take a decade before anything gets better are completely wrong.

An economy can recover just as fast as it can fall.

They say it took 2 decades to recover from the Great Depression.  1 decade to reach bottom, 1 decade to reach top.

If this market hits bottom in 2009 and starts the recovery in 2010 then that I suspect the DOW 14000 should happen: June 2012.  (3 years to hit bottom, 3 years to hit top).

I'll leave 2 ticker symbols MSM and ATVI attached as 2 stocks presently in my portfolio.  [more]

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