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Varchild2008 (86.37)

December 2010



Messed up expectations (HANS) (DPS)

December 22, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP , MNST

Based on expecting HANS and DPS to merely meet expectations for Q4 2010 eps,  both stocks would end up with an eps of $2.38  (per Scottrade Charts which I believe calculate the eps without the one time items).

So why is HANS trading over $53 a share?    While Dr. Pepper Snapple Group is selling off today and is as low as $36.39?

Is it because HANS is a global stock while DPS is a stock that exists mostly in just North America?

If that were true then please explain to me why stock analysts predict:

HANS  Q1 2011  eps  44

DPS    Q1 2011 eps  51


Q4 2010 eps prediction for HANS:  .62

Q4 2010 eps prediction for DPS:   .64


So people are willing to pay 22.5 times earnings for (HANS)
and people are willing to pay  15.25 times earnings for (DPS)

That in spite of analyst expectations for THIS quarter and for NEXT quarter favoring heavily Dr. Pepper Snapple Group.

Look....   The 2 combined unreported quarter earnings for the 2 companies gives DPS an EPS advantage of  9 cents a share....  Nearly a double digit improvement over HANS!

Ohhhhhhhh But... There's more to it than EPS???  right???

A HANSEN Natural Corp Investor would point out  DR. PEPPER Snapple Group's high amount of debt.

But, a DR PEPPER SNAPPLE  Group Investor could turn-a-round and point out the total lack of a dividend payment from HANSEN Natural Corp.

So wins here?

HANS could point out the 16.9% net profit margin easily beats DPS's  9.5%.

But, DPS could point out that its share price is just 1.5 times sales.....  While HANS is a bloated 3.7 times sales.

And the battle of the beverage companies not named (KO) and (PEP) marches on.  [more]



Make up your mind...(DPS) Parody

December 20, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: KDP

Cause I can, I decided to do a parody on the last 2 trading days for Dr. Pepper Snapple Group stock which saw the stock jump 86 cents only to then plummet 97 cents... That's more than a 5% movement in the mid-cap stock in just 2 trading days!

"Make up your mind ----  Lyrics changed from song by Theory of a Deadman

Make up your mind and I'll make up mine
Keep buyin Jan. calls, expiration 
Those words that you said to me, why wasn't I listening?
I wish I hadn't bought the stock before, because you shorted it
I'll sit back and relax and sell it in the morning

We'll wake up, we'll make up and HOLD (DPS) for the last time
We'll wake up, we'll make up and BUY (DPS) for the last time
If we break up, we'll wind up losing money the next day
So wake up, let's make up and SELL (DPS) for the last time

Make up your mind and I'll make up mine
Keep buyin $40 calls, expiration 
The last time you yelled at me I swore I heard you say buy!
I wish I hadn't bought the stock before, because its falling now
I'l sit back and relax and sell it in the morning

We'll wake up, we'll make up and HOLD (DPS) for the last time
We'll wake up, we'll make up and BUY (DPS) for the last time
If we break up, we'll wind up losing money the next day
So wake up, let's make up and SELL (DPS) for the last time

When will we make up, will we break up?
Let's wake up, let's wake up, let's wake up

Make up your mind and I'll make up mine
Keep sellin $40 calls, expiration
Those words that you said to me, why wasn't I listening?
I wish I hadn't sold you at all, I started thinking"  [more]



DADT minor boost to Consumer Spending?

December 16, 2010 – Comments (3)

I'm making a political statement here because it does matter to your stock portfolio even if only very very very slight.

Basically...  A Happy Consumer is a Spending Consumer....

So.. While I have *huge* misgivings about seeing DADT repealed... If someone forced me to announce my opinion on DADT repeal... it is that I am in favor of it.

The thing is that not all Gays act like "Richard Simmons" and certainly not all are "Drag Queens."
But.... Unfortuntely some are not comfortable with being the Gender they are due to their orientation and so they try to switch.

Personally....  That's what bothers me.... If DADT is repealed and a Drag Queen wants to join the military....First of all where do they dorm up?  With the men?  or with the Women?

Secondly... Wouldn't that be just a TAD distracting in the war effort in Afghanistan to have a  "T" in LGBT around?   Would this open the door to that?  And is America ok with that?

None the less... In my anecdotal experiences the vast majority of Gays are perfectly happy acting and behaving like  a guy (and Lesbians like  a Woman).  And there would be no discernible problems with repealing DADT here.

So... Count me as someone with huge misgivings but nonetheless supports repeal.

With that said...  Repeal of DADT seems to be 50% of what LGBT issues are...  The other 50% is Marriage (which I remain adamantly opposed and will never change my mind on that issue).

But 50% is definitely enough to promote consumer spending for your Consumer Discretionary Stocks in your portfolio...  And a Happy Consumer is a Spending Consumer.

All the Conservatives of the World can now hate my guts....  [more]



Politics is Terrorism

December 01, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: WMT

1)  "Top U.S. retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Target Corp. (TGT) are battling to limit a new law that could force them to report whether their goods contain minerals from war-torn central Africa."

2)  "Bonds sink on report of US aid to Europe..."

3)  "100,000 Apply for 1,000 Flight Attendant Jobs... "  ----Because you can avoid the TSA screening (Varchild2008)

4)  FCC chairman to propose plan for net neutrality


Race On to 'Fingerprint' Devices...

6) Reid Says He'll Force Vote on Dream Act amnesty bill...

7)  Senate passes new food police bill: Roll call vote 73-25; Senator Bennet: “It’s all rigged”8)  Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood says there is no way to drive safely when you're talking on a cell phone -- even if you're using a hands-free device --

---  He wants to require devices that disable phones in cars.

9)  Confirmed: U.S. considering 62 mpg CAFE target by 2025 — Autoblog10)  New Federal CAFE standards officially released, 34.1 mpg by 2016 ...11)  The oil drilling moratorium | Energy Bulletin12)  The Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 (MFCMA), enacted on 13 April 1976, declared a United States Fishery Conservation Zone (FCZ) from the seaward edge of the territorial sea out to 200 miles from the baseline (200-mile limit) for exclusive US management of fisheries except highly migratory species (tuna).

13)  (2010) 

The United States was disappointed that in other areas ICCAT did not fully act in accordance with the scientific advice of the ICCAT scientific body.
For example, nations only agreed to minor quota reductions for bluefin tuna fisheries, and didn’t take the precautionary steps necessary to accelerate stock growth.

14)  The House has approved a comprehensive financial reform bill ... GAO Examines Costs and Benefits of 1099 Reporting ...   [more]

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