August 2007
August 31, 2007 –
From everything I have been hearing and reading the market has already factored in a 1/4 to 1/2% drop in the discount rate for the Fed's next meeting on September 18th. Assuming this does happen, I am betting on a bounce in the Homebuilders/Lenders leading up to the date as well as immediately afterwards. For this reason I am ending my short picks and not immediately reentering them. This fool believes there is still more pain ahead for these industries, but where possible I am going to try and limit my exposure. Will follow what I believe will be a run up and look to reenter. [more]
August 30, 2007 –
Would like to preface this by stating that I have a significant % of my relatively small portfolio invested in BAC. Early on I was paying for evaluation/consultation through Schwab and they recommended that I downsize my position in order to follow the pattern of good investment practices. Weighing my cost position, the dividend yield, and potential capital gains vs the risks involved I chose to stay the course. Over 2005-2006 they share value rose nearly 20%. Since that time the shares have settled or stagnated, but the dividend has still been solid. [more]
August 14, 2007 –
The consensus of opinion in the CAPS community would seem to believe that scoring with shorts is a chicken _ _ _ way of building your score. I would agree. It took me a little while, but I realize that the best way to build your score is to short out of favor industry segments. Shorting homebuilders and subprime lenders is responsible for probably 75-80% of my score. Not proud of it, but it seems to work. Today, at least for a short time, my score exceeded Elderhead and Brent, who long seemed far out of reach. It is bittersweet though, due to the erosion of my accuracy. [more]
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