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reddingrunner (92.14)

March 2012



"Over what TIME FRAME?"

March 20, 2012 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: CAT , XYL , BLX

Not so much in CAPS, but in real life I'm coming to believe that an 18 month to 3 year time frame is the sweet spot for stock picking.  The 3 year maximum is simply because it is impossible to see further than that, or where the stock and its valuations will be then.  The 18 month minimum is because the only way to win at this game is to play a different game than the big boys (whose competition with each other totally dominates the game- the rest of us are just gnats buzzing around the edges) are playing.    [more]



The real Emerging Market Megatrend

March 01, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: VWO , VSS , CAT

Initially, emerging markets were profiting on exports to the West. It's been a great growth story, especially on humanitarian grounds as hundreds of millions of people are rising out of abject poverty to better lives.  I believe that the changes have become established (and the economic free-market thinking of political leaders has become enlightened enough) to where these markets are no longer nearly as dependent on the West for future growth. They will be creating their own wealth, just as we did for 200+ years.    [more]

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