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June 2009

Recs

4

Warner Music Group sucks!

June 22, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: WMG.DL

That was just to please you people who think every post should be about investing. Really what I wanted to say was this:  [more]

Recs

1

Bad news for FMCN/SINA arbitrageurs

June 12, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: FMCN.DL , SINA

...such as myself. Roth Capital predicts Sina will renegotiate the terms of their semi-merger with Focus, and Focus shares plummeted again today, to even farther below one third of Sina.   [more]

Recs

4

TMV, TMF, the bond markets, and me

June 10, 2009 – Comments (3)

I have now bought Nov puts on TMV and TMF. And even though I had to stretch to meet the Ask in each case, my timing has seemed pretty good so far. Of course, I am hoping that these two super-ultra leveraged ETF's see-saw their way down to single digits, a la the FAZ/FAS pair. However, TMV has everything going for it: enormously overpriced US Treasuries, looming high inflation, high deficits, growing foreign opposition to the USD's reserve currency status, and shrinking foreign participation in UST auctions. If there's a big drop in TMV, I intend to buy some and ride it to the next high. The problem with riding TMV to 1,000 (other than tracking risk, derivative market risk, etc.) is that the US gov't has enormous incentive to try sneaky methods of propping up Treasury prices. And they just may be able to pump UST's at times inconvenient for buyers of TMV. Still, until the derivatives market collapses, TMV, TMF, and their puts are fun ways to bet on the coming tsunami of inflation and interest rate hikes.  [more]

Recs

2

FAZ flip-flop

June 05, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FAZ , FAS

I suppose I should explain why I flip-flopped on FAZ (and FAS). For one thing, they are designed to be traded in and out of, so flip-flopping on them is natural. More importantly, and more specifically, I realized that the financial sector is made up of thousands of financial companies with a lot less favor in DC than GS, BofA, C, and their ilk have. The broad financial sector will most likely be looted to prop up the banks with ties to the Fed, and other DC power brokers.  [more]

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