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October 2007



Housing Market

October 28, 2007 – Comments (3)

Tonight I discoved the play floridabuilder who has a pretty damn good take on the housing market.  After reading all his blog posts.  I will give him props  I like his new underperform picks.  Mostly because of reading his blog he knows what he is doing.

The market is about to correct and I think banks are going to get a can of whoop arse... but what banks? from a macro standpoint the worst damage in housing has come from the west and southwest.. why? just look at where all the big writeoffs of the big builders are coming in from... California!!! AZ and Vegas... ohh florida is bad too... but the huge writeoffs are from the left coast... the publics are the tip of the iceburg... all the private builders and all the land barrons are in trouble too... and guess who lent them money... the banks.. Go Thumbs down on these.  [more]



Criteria for evaluating SNLs

October 24, 2007 – Comments (1)

Right now the credit markets are very umm lets say interesting.  My Bible of investing is Peter Lynches "Beating the Street" and he has a whole chapter dedicated to S and L's  Thought I would share some of his criteria with you all.  [more]



Evaluating a Business

October 24, 2007 – Comments (0)

I have been doing some research for a paper I am doing and decided that I would post a lot of the stuff I have been coming across.  I am working on developing a stock criteria and a sort of system for picking stocks.  Will share with other CAPS members when it is complete.  [more]



Commitments and Picks

October 23, 2007 – Comments (2)

Before I talk about this I want to say that after doing a lot of reading that I am going to be a lot more committed to making pitches for CAPS.  This may vary due to my homework load in school.  I am pretty sure nobody reads this but if I can get my score up there to 5k + more peole will read my pitches.  I really like blogging but sometimes  I have a time constraint towards doing so.  But yes I believe that before I make a pick I should be able to lay it out on paper why I really think this.
Alright already here is my new favorite pick WU and why

WU - Outperform 5 years.  [more]



Cognitive Bias

October 20, 2007 – Comments (2)





October 19, 2007 – Comments (8)

Another player posted this and it was in my Buzz Box.  I is a good Summary of why I really like BAC.  One of the Main reasons is that they don't have any SIV's and will not get caught up in this subprime mess.  These are the the main reasons.

1) $180 billion of non-interest-bearing deposits, to quote Morningstar.   [more]




October 17, 2007 – Comments (0)

I havent posted in awhile (about a month) I decided I would post something.  I have been busy playing the market and somewhat busy with school.  Even though I created this to talk more about the market I still talk sometimes about crap in my personal life.  I tend to need to find this balance between playing the market and school.  I was in Houston last week visiting some family and was watching the LSU vs. UK football game.  I was thinking about sports betting and how much of a sucket bet it is.  It represents a lot of things in the market so many people trade things that they do not understand.  I sometimes wonder what this percentage is 90%.  I love the stat about how mutual funds as a whole underperform the market.  I am even guilty of trading things I do not understand sometimes.  Lately I have not been focusing much on my options trading.  I am very skeptical of doing anything in the market right now.  Some of my favorites right now are short AMZN and Short the S&P 500 homebuilders index.  I think that GOOG is going to go to 700 and is a good options play right now.  I would be very skeptical of playing things right now.  Thats all for now.  [more]

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