FED write offs on Bear Stearns assets - 30%. And how much did the bank write off? I don't think even 10% from the reports I've seen in the press. Who is kidding who here? [more]
We are seeing 50% increase in bank robberies in Houston. This is definitely a sign of a recession. People are getting desperate and they are resorting to crimes. And our unemployement is not bad - 6%. However, we have hidden unemployment - illegal immigrants. If we counted them, we would probably have 20% unemployement. [more]
For the past few days I am experiencing kind of deja vu. Here is from by blog on August 25th, last year, 2 weeks before the market crash [more]
I have an impression that the banks are trying their best to make their credit card numbers look better than they are. [more]
I keep hearing people saying that never mind unemployment is a lagging indicator, so never mind huge unemployment number, the economy is getting better. I guess, may be some parts of economy are getting better, but not the parts related to consumers. We’ve seen rally the last few days in retail stocks on the premise that consumer is going to start shopping again any minute now. And when somebody brings up the unemployment number, the answer is – never mind unemployment, it is lagging indicator. [more]
For a while now I have been quite fascinated by negative correlation between USD and US equities. Intuitively, it just doesn’t make sense. One would think, if US economy is in bad shape, not getting any better, the government keeps printing money, then equities will sell of (correct) and the confidence in the US will be undermined as well and USD will fall (wrong). However, when US equities sell off, USD actually rises. When US market rises, USD falls, and the likes of AUD and EIR rise. It works like clockwork. USD could actually be used as a hedge for equities. [more]
I having been listening to CNBC, and it is just too funny how they spin things. Are they paid only when the market goes up ? I am not against optimism, but one needs to be realistic no matter what. Blind optimism is not helpful. And hypocrisy is even less attractiveAnyway, when we are getting better than expected number (or perceived as better than expected) like increase in consumer spending (no matter that it is due to inflation). They say , - well, things are getting better and this is a sign of a turnaround. When we get really bad numbers like jobless claims, they say - well, things are so bad, they cannot get any worse, and this must the bottom. In essence, any news is good news.
The market plunged at the open on horrible employement and maufacturing news. That I understand. But then it recovered. That part I don't understand. What happened, did I miss some sort of news?
It is the same pattern as yesterday. Yesterday I decided it was due to FASB planning to relook at mark-to-market rules and so all the bank shorts had to be covered. Is it the same thing to day? Or was there something else?