russiangambit (29.89)

Short pain

August 28, 2008 – Comments (3)

OK, I am not seeing the good things which apparently everyone else is seeing. After 3 days rally on the fantasy GDP number, my shorts are showing 5% loss. Yikes. I am really tempted to close them. However, that probably means that we are about to sell off. As always, a position goes in your favor just as soon as you can't take it anymore and close it. I am short various retailes mostly (RSH, S, GPS, JWN) and  indexes (DXD). I think I'll give them until middle of next week and day trade on the long side to offset the losses.    [more]

Who is lying?

August 14, 2008 – Comments (3)

I am on the fence on this,  - who is lying about the war Russia or Georgia? I am an American citizen, but I was born in Russia, so I can understand both sides. There is clearly misinformation going on. Especially, since many people remember the Cold War too well and are quick to blame russians.The reporting in the US side is coming directly from Georgia, and it is complete opposite of what the Russian media is saying. I know, you are going to say that Russian media is not free, so Russians must be lying. But this is not exactly true. While much of the TV is government controlled, there is full and free access to the internet and Russians are very aware that they are called aggressors by the western media. Today on Larry King, Gorbachev blamed Georgia for the situation and Saakishvili basically said that Gorbachev is lying.http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/14/gorbachev/index.htmlHowever, what reason would Gorbachev have to lie? He is retired and respected. On the other hand, Saakishvili has every reason to lie, he is the president of Georgia, he is directly responsible for whatever happened.

Are the Americans being led on a wild goose chase?  [more]

P/E ratios in bear market.

August 14, 2008 – Comments (1)

What do you make of this, from Seeking Alpha:  [more]

Retailers up 20% in the last 2 days. Who is mad?

August 11, 2008 – Comments (1)

I can't beleive my eyes. Retailers like JWN, GPS and others are up 20% in the last 2 days. It there an end of reession memo that I missed?

I am not sure how the drop 20%  in oil price translates into 20% growth in earnings for these retailers when all other economic data is bad and when consumer has no cash to spare and no more credit to gain. This is completely irrational.

Conflict in Georgia and Oil

August 09, 2008 – Comments (7)

I knew it ! Just read in the russian news, - russians bombed the oil pipeline in the Georgia. Georgians say the pipeline is not damaged. Yet.  [more]

Where did all the money go?

August 08, 2008 – Comments (2)

As we find ourselves in the middle of the financial crisis caused by credit insolvency, I asked myself where is the root of it? Banks lended money to people who didn't have the earning power to repay it. Why did these people take the money? To buy houses from other people and builders, to buy things using their houses equity. So, in essence, the trillion lost wasn't exactly lost but distributed to the shareholders of the builder companies and people selling houses. The  selling of houses in the hot regious was a game of musical chairs. When the music stoped, some where left holding the bag, but some luckier ones were actully made huge profit. Those profits in the past 10 years financed over-consumption.This over-consumption drove economic growth in China, India and the US. Companies earned  a lot of money and distributed them to the shareholders, individuals profited and spent it on "stuff". Some of us,who had shares, who sold houses at profit benefited beyond our earning power.  [more]