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March 2011

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27

Nifty pictures of stocks and commodities, take 3: the latest

March 29, 2011 – Comments (12)

I have the latest research from the same fella's that put out the other commodities -vs- stocks commentary I posted last time.  The last post had 2 charts from the same guys that were interesting in that they showed the ratio of commodities to stocks in a different position.  One was from 2002, one was from 2009.  I have no idea at all how to reconcile those different views except calculate everything myself, which would be quite a task.  Fortunately, a new paper is out and we can take a look at what it offers.  [more]

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44

Wall Street: where midgets are giants

March 24, 2011 – Comments (13)

I shall endeavor, in these last minutes of my day, to offer why I honestly think that individual investors have a big advantage over big-money in this game.  I honestly mean that.  There are so many reasons.  But before I get into that, I just want to acknowledge that probably almost all of the things small investors complain about with respect to wall street are true, and more.  We do have some significant disadvantages here, without a doubt.  Its just that our advantages outweigh those and much more.    [more]

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34

"checklist, lets get as drunk as @#%# tonight and just fail at everything"

March 23, 2011 – Comments (26)

This post will explain how being in the market is like getting really drunk, and why in the end it always feels like we are failing more than we actually are.  The subject line is the words of one of my best buddies on St. Patties day, just a few days back.  Zeke, as we shall call him, is a terrific human.  He's extremely large, weighing maybe 280, and was undefeated in several years of golden gloves boxing as a heavyweight back in the day.  He is a frightening man, but so mellow and chilled out that its almost odd.  He doesn't talk much, unless you talk to him, but he has an IQ of 150, which we learned as this, while drinkign heavily:  [more]

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25

Cycles of commodities -vs- stocks, 110 years

March 12, 2011 – Comments (26)

I wrote a blog about an article published by stifel long ago, here.  I recently commented on the same article and posted a picture in "the long view" here.  That basic concept:  that long equity bull markets tend to occur in periods of commodity disinflation.  I think that the paper mentioned and the basic concept are relevant here for a variety of things including  [more]

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A reply to Binve's post about valuation at the March bottoms in 2009.

March 09, 2011 – Comments (12)

I shall reply, as best I can, to Binve's recent blog about the valuation at the March, 2009 bottoms.  Indeed, I shall even spend some time trying to dig up actual statistics to go with my points.  But before that, I would like to tip my cap to a blog made over the last week by HareyCareysGhost, right here:  http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/a-simple-hedge/551529.  I think that concept (hedging ones own life) may have some interesting possibilities.    [more]

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27

The long view again, and some reflections

March 09, 2011 – Comments (11)

It is march 8th.  Well, very soon it will be march 9th.  2 years ago, on (and around) the 8th, I called and texted numerous friends and family, and I begged them to buy stocks.  I offered many a guarantee of their money if they'd buy.  If I was wrong and they failed, I'd give them their principle back.  How many people did I get talked into doing it?  2.  I failed.  I failed my family and friends, I could not summon enough charm to talk them all into it.  Who did I not fail?  My great friend Tom, my longtime business partner (who, in all fairness, did not require my coaxing to put it all in at that point, he wuld have done it himself, even if i'd have gotten hit by a train), and my parents.  Thats it.  [more]

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The long view: a look at historical bear markets and very long term trends

March 02, 2011 – Comments (17)

I have made a wager with this girl I hang out with quite a bit, at least unless she driving me nuts by sitting next and staring at my screen while I'm trying to make pretty pictures of long term stock charts, and quits threatening to post in my blog when I'm sleeping, to ignore the markets for 1 week.  As part of this agreement, if we get a significant spike in the VIX I am allowed to pay attention again.  In preperation for this I sold and hedged more today, I still don't like the market that much right now anyway.  I like it alot on a vix spike.  I have this budding theory about VIX spikes and the market behavior afterward that I want to tinker with.    [more]

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