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June 2009



Why I think everybody's assessment of the market is wrong

June 30, 2009 – Comments (30)

Long story short:  I think everybody that thinks we had a rally is crazy.  I'll explain why, but just below I will offer two small disclaimers.  [more]



"risk" and playing the odds

June 27, 2009 – Comments (35)

I have often said that my strategy since coming to the market to buy into this big crash has been based around playing the odds.  I'll explain  [more]



Are stocks cheap or not? Valuation of the S&P

June 25, 2009 – Comments (55) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Well I've done some more digging into the valuation of the S&P today.  This is subject to much controversy, debate, and discussion.  One of the bears favorite things to do these days is to parade around a chart showing that the S&P has a sky-high p/e of 100some, using it as proof that we have to immediately have a market crash.  Bulls counter with arguments about operating earnings, mark to market mirages, how far stocks are down, how many years its been w/o appreciation in stocks, green shoots, and more.  [more]



Some stocks that I like right now

June 23, 2009 – Comments (8)

Well my fine fellow fools I thought I would offer up some thoughts on stocks that I like right now and think have a chance of good long and medium term returns (I haven't any idea what the market will do in the short term so I haven't any idea if they will be up or down tomorrow, next month, etc.).  [more]



Wong, MAC, and those incredibly stylish posts the TA guys make...

June 23, 2009 – Comments (12)

I read the paper on Moving Average Crossover by Wong this evening.  I must be honest and say that I read it nearly drunk with fatigue, as for 2 nights in a row the smoke detectors in my place have been going wild every 15 minutes, which makes it a bit of a challenge to get some rest.  It just occured to me to disconnect them all, which can be taken as proof of some kind of significant mental illness, I'm getting that check tomorrow.  [more]



the S&P, P/E, P/forwardE, P/B, P/S, etc.

June 22, 2009 – Comments (12)

Well gentleman and ladies (I, counter convention, put gentlemen ahead of ladies as I have surmised from my time on CAPs that the gents outnumber the ladies)  [more]



This wild, wild circus. Faces, personalities, opinions and... advertising

June 18, 2009 – Comments (13)

All these experts, all these opinions, all these varying views from the same information.  [more]



correction coming? Some stocks I like right now

June 15, 2009 – Comments (7)

Well I guess I have rarely posted stock picks.  I've made some on my CAPs portfolio, and thats gone pretty well, and I've made some general commentaries...  [more]



quite possibly the greatest investing parable ever

June 13, 2009 – Comments (3)

This evening I'm going to enjoy a nice cold beer and a movie, I didn't invite anybody over or anything, I'm just going to let the brain idle down to zero workload and relax.  No 10Qs, no stock screens, no pondering fair value for my holdings, no   [more]



All this Karl Denninger controvery ... information overload

June 12, 2009 – Comments (27)

Yesterday saw considerable activity debating the merits of a blog by Karl Denninger.  In this case the very bearish LIKED Denningers position and said he was smart.  As usual they called people they don't agree with stupid.  Thats a rolling, rousing CAPs tradition - bearish people calling anyone who doesn't agree with them stupid in one way or another.    [more]



is there a "bankruptcy bounce"?

June 10, 2009 – Comments (8)

I bought a few shares of CEM (Chemtura) which is now some insane pink sheet ticker, i think.    [more]



Why I cannot feel bullish on gold, in a nutshell

June 10, 2009 – Comments (11)

Well my fine fellow fools, I am going to offer why I cannot feel bullish on gold in real life.  You will not find a long rambling macro-economic thesis in this blog, you'll hear mention of no school of economics, you'll read nothing typed with grandiose or faith to make a necromonger proud.  You'll also find no graphs or charts, no mention of a resistance point, and no predictions.  [more]



Ever wonder if some members of the CAPs game are on a payroll?

June 06, 2009 – Comments (28)

I don't offer this as a heavy handed accusation or with the intent of starting some significant argument, nor with the intent of insulting any given CAPs member.  [more]



A tale of two worlds - some perspective on the markets today

June 05, 2009 – Comments (8)

Imagine two worlds.  Both worlds had the S&P at 1500 in late 2007, both worlds have the S&P at 940 today.   [more]



my take on the market since the March bottom

June 04, 2009 – Comments (8)

The upward move in the markets that began with Vikram Pandits memo to Citibank employees that the bank was making money in the first two months of 2009, viewed from a chart might look like a massive upward swing hardly interrupted by correction.    [more]



oh to have had more experience... opportunities missed

June 04, 2009 – Comments (5)

I am very grateful for how well investing into this bear market has turned out for me, and some things have gone well.    [more]



strange end of day action

June 01, 2009 – Comments (7)

today in the very last minutes of close some strange selling off occured in many big names.  [more]



recently took positions in CBI, BAC, FIG, added to TCK

June 01, 2009 – Comments (7)

I've been deploying my cash hoard in recent weeks as the S&P toyed around with the 875 mark but never broke through.    [more]

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