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July 2010



Stalking White Swans pt 2: something big may be coming

July 26, 2010 – Comments (7)

In my last post I offered up some reasons to be optimistic in the short to intermediate term, and in this one I'd like to offer up the thought that a really big opportunity may reveal itself, or be revealing itself.  A generational opportunity.  [more]



Stalking White Swans part 1: some reasons for optimism

July 18, 2010 – Comments (18)

Bearish sentiment reached a new since since March of 2009 last week BEFORE the Friday meelee.  I can only imagine that its even lower now.  The economic recovery isn't going along as well as optimists had hoped and the market teeters between a correction and a new bear market.  Predictions of dow 5000 are common, predictions of dow 1000 are occasional, predictions of a depression have returned (as if they ever really quit).  Deflation fears are rampant, mutual funds have now experienced 3 straight years of net outflows, worst since 1979-1981.  Corporations are scared, hoarding cash at a level not since even in the early 80s (which was the last time it was even close).  Fears of debt induced catastrophe, governments defaulting, everybody defaulting, bears screaming that markets are manipulated at every uptick, but very satisfied that they are running fairly on every crash.  Predictions of the end of the US, the end of western society, even, a threat from Asia that will soon take over the world. High frequency trading and flash crashes cause legittimate concern among almost all market participants.  The ECRI leading indicator has been dropping dramatically Truly, doom and gloomers and bears are having a bit of a second heyday here, nobody seems happy.    [more]



Bull -vs- Bear: earnings season

July 11, 2010 – Comments (27)

I have some trepidation going into earnings season.  In my view, as I offered in a blog in late June, the financial markets are now the tail that wags the dog of the economy.  A significant crash in markets of various kinds probably possesses the power to bring about a double dip.    [more]



210 year trends part 2: Gold

July 10, 2010 – Comments (17)

In my last blog I took a look at the 210 year performance of equities.  6-7%/year, with remarkable consistency across circumstance, country, and time.  Bubbles and busts and volatility and people jumping out of windows over short periods of time, but extreme consistency over long periods of time.    [more]



The 210 year trend of the market and where we are at with respect to it

July 09, 2010 – Comments (20)

Here we go, the bull and bear case from a peek at history.  I started my last blog by saying that Mark Twain once said "history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".  This blog aims to take a look at history, particularily the history of equity performance in the US (and parts of the rest of the world).    [more]



A look at where we are at: valuation and trends

July 08, 2010 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , QQQ , IWM

Mark Twain once said that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.  Someone once said that "the biggest mistake that investors make is believing that its different this time".  And I myself began my investing career believing that the best results would be had with a fairly long term outlook and a focus on value.    [more]

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