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August 2009



When debt can be good in picking stocks (yes, I just said that)

August 29, 2009 – Comments (13)

In this blog I am going to take a look at situations where a company having a considerable amount of debt can be advantageous for investors.  I'll present two basic principles of why this can be so.    [more]



well I made the top 100 in CAPs... or maybe 3rd

August 28, 2009 – Comments (27)

Well I made the top 100 in the CAPs game today, 80-somethingth.    [more]



Kass calls a top, checklist

August 27, 2009 – Comments (10)

Recently on Doug Kass, who made an eternal name for himself by calling a bottom in march in a post titled "bottoms up, mr. market", and who made a call, back in march with the S&P in the 700s, that the market would ramp to the 800's quickly and eventually reach 1050.  I guess if he plays it right he could look pretty smart here...  pretty smart indeed!  However since the S&P hit 950 in late July he's turned very bearish and been wrong quite a bit.  By nature, I think, after reading his stuff for a few months, Kass feels a need to go against the prevailing sentiment.  That works often, and is probably quite a bit better than going with the prevailing sentiment, but ...  Fair value and not opposite-the-current-sentiment is probably the best thing to do.    [more]



black swans, the butterfly effect, and a perspective on life

August 23, 2009 – Comments (18)

Black Swan:  a rare, or once in a lifetime event, thats difficult or impossible to predict or forsee, which ultimately has a massive or even dominant effect on your life.  [more]



some thoughts on the market today

August 18, 2009 – Comments (2)

well, yesterday I covered my short calls on SPY (for a gain), blew out my puts on SPY (for a loss, but not quite as big as the loss was last Thursday), bought back most of my August calls including LVS 13s, ASH 35s, TCK 27s, RCL 17.50s, BOOM 17.50s, USG 15s, BYD 10s, XL blah, and so on.    [more]



CAPs must be getting more bullish...

August 14, 2009 – Comments (16)

I notice today that my score bumped down a little bit (.02) on a day when the market was up and my points were up like 100 or something and my percent of correct picks didn't change.  I don't know exactly how often, if ever, thats happened before as I don't check my caps score daily by any means...  but I know its rare.    [more]



reducing my long exposure some more

August 03, 2009 – Comments (23)

As I've posted before, my target hedge or exit point (depending on timing) from the market is around S&P 1100.  I am not posting this to be bearish.  Indeed I still think that there are many good bargains on the markets today, although I will concede that bargains today are limited to stocks with tangible risk and tangible, real turmoil or challenging surrounding the underlying companies.  CNO, GNW, BZ, RJET, and MGM come to mind.  Possibly FIG or BX.  I think AA and GE will deliver nice returns from todays prices in the fullness of time as will DELL or maybe even BA - the 787 will eventually fly and it will be a multi-platinum hit.  I'm sure there are many stocks that still have alot of room to run from here.  High yielding BDCs in good shape can certainly be great investments from here in my view.  ARCC, HTGC, PSEC, FSC, PNNT, and maybe AINV come to mind.  AINV is riskier.  ACAS could easily be a great investment from here, but some good things have to happen for this to be so.  I think natty gas related MLPs could yield great returns going forward.    [more]



a quick note on mark to market accounting

August 03, 2009 – Comments (10)

Mark to market accounting has been at the core of the thesis behind my bullish perspective for some time.  Basically, it works like this:  [more]



reducing my real life (and CAPs game) long exposure

August 01, 2009 – Comments (7)

Today I closed (in both the CAPs game and in real life) the majority of my short positions in levered BEAR ETFs.  I had been short SKF, SDS, etc.    [more]

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