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April 2008

Recs

10

Kraft - Ouch

April 30, 2008 – Comments (2)

Kraft had a 20% increase in sales but a 15% decline in profit?  (702/608 - 1)*100%.    [more]

Recs

6

Food Crisis - Distribution problem?

April 30, 2008 – Comments (0)

Financial Times has a good post on the world food crisis.  The article ties in how energy prices affect food, so with high energy prices food prices are likely to remain higher.  [more]

Recs

5

Short the Banks?

April 29, 2008 – Comments (6)

Market Ticker has an interesting post about government bailouts for homeowners, and I make no claims about understanding what happening here.  I don't know the details at all, and the post doesn't help me to understand the details.  [more]

Recs

9

12 rallies of 5% or more since summer

April 29, 2008 – Comments (2)

Wow, amazing really...  [more]

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8

0.5% of Home Get Foreclosure Notice

April 29, 2008 – Comments (3)

Amazing, in the last quarter more than 0.5% of homes, 1 in 194, got foreclosure notices in this past quarter.  [more]

Recs

8

The Bear, The Mouse and The Wolf

April 28, 2008 – Comments (5)

Great, just great...  A mouse ran under my bedroom door and apparently there are two wolves that have been seen around town and the bears will be coming out soon...    [more]

Recs

15

The Ant and the Grasshopper

April 28, 2008 – Comments (5)

Who remembers the story?

Mish has a post featuring it

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17

Changing Consumer Buying Behaviour

April 27, 2008 – Comments (10)

It looks like many brands are going to struggle with pricing power in this next round.  The NYtimes has an article about recession pricing.  Consumers are changing their behaviour in response to increasing costs, "more pasta and less red meat, more video rentals and fewer movie tickets."  [more]

Recs

11

Careful with E-Trade

April 27, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: ETFC

E-Trade is having major upper management turnover, no doubt over its almost bankrupcy and extreme challenges due to its involvement in the subprime mortgage mess.  [more]

Recs

7

Sensible Lending Standards

April 27, 2008 – Comments (3)

 I am back to using docstoc for this post as it makes putting a table in much easier.  The tables you've seen in previous posts have been very labour intensive to include.  [more]

Recs

10

Stay Away From US Stocks because...

April 26, 2008 – Comments (2)

This Big Picture post has some good links about how UBS lost $37 billion.   There is a 50 page report on this stuff and is recommended reading.

I found the comments quite an interesting read as well and I titled the post based on one of the comments.

Recs

5

Betting on Financials - John Hancock Classic Value Fund

April 26, 2008 – Comments (4)

Richard Beddard at Interactive Investor put me onto this one today.  He did a post on Richard Pzena and had an interesting link to a Forbe's interview with Pzena.  [more]

Recs

8

What Have I Been Saying About Pensions?

April 26, 2008 – Comments (5)

I've been saying that I think pension plans are going to take a huge hit from the deleveraging and, well, best to just quote part of the article...  [more]

Recs

14

Measuring Inflation - Shadow Government Statistics

April 25, 2008 – Comments (6)

Big picture had a post on the global food crisis, but what got my attention was a San Diego Tribune post that put a picture of a graph using "Shadow Government Statistic."  [more]

Recs

12

Gold Will Be Between $500 and $1600

April 24, 2008 – Comments (11)

How's that for a prediction?  Almost as good as the S&P's prediction that oil will be between $41 and $141 by the end of the year.

This predicting stuff is easy. 

Recs

9

Ford's Surprise Profit - Currency gains?

April 24, 2008 – Comments (0)

"Ford posted an unexpected quarterly profit on Thursday, led by strong results in Europe and South America and a narrowing loss in North America."  [more]

Recs

7

How Cheap Are Those Stocks by P/E?

April 24, 2008 – Comments (6)

Bespoke has a great post that truly shows the rising P/E of stocks.  It looks like the trend is very clearly up.  They also put a red dot on graphs to show when the market topped in the fall.  The fact that P/E's are rising when the market has declined means that these graphs truly don't show the degree to which earnings have declined.  [more]

Recs

8

Over Worked and Job Cuts Coming

April 23, 2008 – Comments (6)

It looks like financial companies should be hiring workers to deal with the workload from deliquent accounts, but as anyone who's been following the markets knows, the financial industry is laying off workers.  What I found interesting in this article is how overworked those handling mortgages are and that there were 90,000 more deliquencies in a period they were able to handle 50,000.  [more]

Recs

12

Aging Population - Health Stocks

April 23, 2008 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: ANTM , GSK

My thinking when I first started investing was that with an aging population anything to do with the types of services they would use would probably do well.  I've rethought my thinking...  [more]

Recs

14

Home Price To Increase?

April 22, 2008 – Comments (6)

Caps players have become very well educated about how over valued homebuilder's still are because of Floridabuilder's posts.  [more]

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10

Cost of Borrowing Increasing

April 21, 2008 – Comments (4)

I've been saying for some time that I expect interest rates to increase.  Perhaps it would have been better to say borrowing rate.  [more]

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9

WSJ - Are you better off?

April 21, 2008 – Comments (7)

This link is a kind of cool interactive link about whether people are better off today or not.

I should count my blessings as I am much better off than 5 years ago.  

Recs

11

Negative Growth - Financials

April 21, 2008 – Comments (6)

Bespoken has a post on the negative growth of earnings that have been reported by the 20% of companies that have reported so far.  Currently it is at -37% year over year.  [more]

Recs

9

Gold Hedging

April 21, 2008 – Comments (0)

It takes work to figure out a gold stock has hedged production, contracts to sell gold at a set price.  Barrack has quite a bit of hedge on production from mines not yet produced.  They've put out specially worded press releases, "No Producing Mine Hedged," which easily misleads the average investor.    [more]

Recs

7

Expensive housing, low inflation

April 21, 2008 – Comments (0)

I just came across this news article about Vancouver having the lowest inflation.  [more]

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10

Interest Rates - The Two Faces of Dr Jekyl and Mr Hyde

April 19, 2008 – Comments (3)

 So, I like the increase power and ease of being able to add tables, graphs and pictures with using docstoc.com.  [more]

Recs

13

Allstars Personalized Avtars

April 19, 2008 – Comments (5)

I like the personalized Avtar thing and TMFJake has offered to personalize your avtar for you if you are an allstar.  [more]

Recs

15

17,530% Gain

April 18, 2008 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: GOOGL

To have had google options...  [more]

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12

A trillion here, a trillion there...

April 17, 2008 – Comments (5)

More and more economist are forecasting more than a $1 trillion in losses in housing.  Frank Veneroso has added his voice to the estimates, $2 trillion in his case.  [more]

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16

Like My New Avtar?

April 16, 2008 – Comments (19)

That's me....

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8

Credit Default Swaps Data Outdated

April 16, 2008 – Comments (3)

Females go Ekkkk!  I noticed Barry on Big Picture goes Urk, or something like that.   [more]

Recs

6

Price Acceptance

April 16, 2008 – Comments (4)

I remember how expensive housing seemed when I was first shopping around.  I knew where it had been, and there was no question that it was up.  It took a while to accept what the prices were and I watched in disbelief prices go up an additional 20-25% before I jumped in.  Prices did come down some, but I found that after I was in the market and had paid the outrageous price, I had a greater degree of "price acceptance," that home was worth $x and that one $y dollars and so on.  But there was a period of price rejection in beliefs and before actually committing to buying.  [more]

Recs

7

FDIC Insurance

April 15, 2008 – Comments (2)

It seems there are lots of loophole in the law around the insurance.  The law allows the FDIC to borrow money to cover losses should they exceed the reserves, which are only 1.22%, and only $52 billion.

I don't like this... 

Recs

7

What did I say about CROX in January?

April 15, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: CROX

 Things about the market that get me is the degree to which it takes off without any fundamental support, like CROX taking off to $75/share...   [more]

Recs

8

Changes to Bankrupcy a Disaster

April 15, 2008 – Comments (0)

Read further down in this post on how changes to laws for retailers work.    [more]

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17

Food, Water, Population and Civil Unrest

April 15, 2008 – Comments (6)

Food security has been making the news.  [more]

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9

Population and the market.

April 14, 2008 – Comments (5)

I'm sick and going to lie down shortly here, but I just saw a post titled "1 in 5 communities vulnerable to population loss."  It is a Canadian story, but what interested me about the story isn't where, but more the effects of population on the markets.  [more]

Recs

14

5 minute management course

April 14, 2008 – Comments (1)

My sister sent this to me...  [more]

Recs

8

Nickel to Crash

April 13, 2008 – Comments (5)

Every once in a while I check the LME commodity prices and warehouse levels.  In today's market you simply are working in the dark as to the degree of metals that are out there that are not being delivered to the LME but will ultimately be on the market for sale again, so seeing a low level isn't necessarily an indication of a tight market.  Hedge funds often buy up commodities these days and distort the historical data.  [more]

Recs

5

What kind of week?

April 13, 2008 – Comments (9)

This week should be interesting.  Reporting later in the week are many of the troubled financial sector, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, Bankcorp...  It should be very interesting.    [more]

Recs

9

To The Top

April 13, 2008 – Comments (2)

Robert Reich has a piece that talks about how lowered standards of living and increased frustration leads to being able to rally people to the blame game.  [more]

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16

When the Game Ends...

April 12, 2008 – Comments (4)

It was February 1985.  I was 23 and I had just started at a job that I anticipated would be interesting, but problematic.  I was planning on going back school in September so it really didn't matter.  I only planned to be there for about 6 months.    [more]

Recs

9

IBM reports Wednesday

April 12, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: IBM

The Dow is truly a crazy benchmark because it is only 30 stocks and the more a stock costs, the more weight in has in the performance, and if it splits, its weight declines to half.  [more]

Recs

9

$3.1 Trillion deficit?

April 11, 2008 – Comments (6)

I was reading The Mogambo Guru and he challenged his readers to, well, here's his exact words:  [more]

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19

What Do You Know About A Business?

April 11, 2008 – Comments (7)

I noticed Linens'n Things is likely to file for bankrupcy protection.  I noticed that it was in serious trouble a few days ago only I couldn't find a ticker to underperform, oh well.  [more]

Recs

10

How are you doing compared to 5 years ago?

April 10, 2008 – Comments (7)

I like some surveys and I like to contrast them to myself.  This one is about how people say they are doing compared to 5 years ago.  [more]

Recs

12

Lehman and other reading

April 10, 2008 – Comments (7)

Good morning.  Yves describes this one as a critter crawling out from under a rock..  This garbage never ends.  Lehman has some questionable accounting and it appear that the investment banks that are now allowed to borrow from the fed are "taking their hung leveraged buyout loans and bundling them into collatearlized loan obligations so they can use them as collateral for loans fromt the Fed."  [more]

Recs

17

Disgusting Buybacks

April 09, 2008 – Comments (11)

The WSJ blog tallies the buybacks for 2007 and financial stocks were at the top of the list for buybacks.  [more]

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10

Slow Experts

April 09, 2008 – Comments (8)

How come it takes the IMF so long to predict a global economic slow down?  [more]

Recs

12

What about these forecasts?

April 08, 2008 – Comments (8)

Bespoken has a post on median analyst expectation on commodity prices.  I am sure commodity bulls, and gold bugs will have something to say about it and I think this post will be an interesting one to check back on in a year.

Recs

8

Bottom Fishers Take Warning

April 08, 2008 – Comments (5)

Story today with Merrill warning investors that financials are a "value trap" in that they look like they are under valued but there is no catalzyt for them to turn around and people are just realising the problem isn't just a US problem but in markets around the world.  I've been warning since January 07.  [more]

Recs

7

Can you sleep at night...

April 08, 2008 – Comments (0)

This is just an anonymous quote a friend was saying about a meeting...  [more]

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7

Viagra Man Impotent?

April 08, 2008 – Comments (6)

I was amused when I read the news just a couple days ago where Sam Zell said he was viagra for business, but reading Mish today I don't think the viagra is working...  It seems the bonds for the Tribune are selling at 37c on the dollar.  [more]

Recs

11

1st Generation

April 06, 2008 – Comments (7)

Today I became the first generation in my family. 

Yesterday I was still 3rd generation, but my grandmother passed away.  She was the last...  My mom was the first to go, in 1976, my first grandpa in 1977, my first grandmother in 1994, my last grandpa in 1999, my father in 2004 and now my last grandmother, in 2008.

 

 

Recs

13

How Good Are Blogs?

April 06, 2008 – Comments (10)

As adults media -- newspaper, radio, TV and now internet -- are extremely important for how we learn new information about the world around us.  Before the internet media has been narrowly owned and narrowly controlled.  [more]

Recs

12

More Changing the Rules

April 05, 2008 – Comments (4)

You know how the autofill shows titles you previously used... I already used "Changing the Rules..."  [more]

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7

Viagra Man for Business

April 05, 2008 – Comments (7)

I couldn't resist this one.  I suppose metaphors for strong is virile and impotent for weak.  Sam Zell takes those metaphors to a whole new level...

Recs

9

SIV Back on Balance Sheets

April 05, 2008 – Comments (4)

I have the best sources...    [more]

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6

Better or Worst?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (2)

Big Picture has a piece that suggests that the current foreclosure rate and problem is under reported because lenders do not have the man power to handle it, so they are looking the other when when home owners start to default and homes that should be under foreclosure are not.  [more]

Recs

11

Dollar Store Sliding?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (2)

You know the economy is bad when a store, Family Dollar, attempting under $10 pricing is seeing earnings decline by almost 1/3rd over a year ago.  [more]

Recs

5

How is JP buying Bear?

April 04, 2008 – Comments (3)

Bespoken has a piece about the buyout where JP has disclosed buying 11 million Bear Stearn shares for $12.24/share.  It looks like they plan to continue buying until they get 49.5%.

Recs

15

The Problem with Gold

April 03, 2008 – Comments (12)

In the past I've looked into a number of gold stocks and I have consistently not liked them.  The grade of gold being mined is so low, the costs are out rageous.  When I was researching stocks, and many mining stocks, what I was noticing was the downward trend in grade.  [more]

Recs

8

Bear Stearn Deal Legal?

April 03, 2008 – Comments (3)

Mish does a very good job of putting pieces together.  He has one that ends with questioning the legality of bailing out Bear Stearn.  I've seen other references that say the fed used a clause that hasn't been used since the depression, but Hussman gives reasons why it isn't legal.  [more]

Recs

11

Under employment up 21%

April 02, 2008 – Comments (9)

People aren't reading the employment data correctly.  This CNN article covers the many ways employment data is far worse that what is reported.  [more]

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10

Slow News Day

April 02, 2008 – Comments (4)

This morning appears to be a slow news day after all the April Fools jokes of yesterday, perhaps the largest being the 3.59% rally for the day.  As I predicted fairly close to the top in the fall that smart money was selling into the rallies, I doubt that few buying yesterday will end up happy with their purchases.  [more]

Recs

9

Dead Serious About April Fools

April 01, 2008 – Comments (7)

I was just thinking here, all day I could not tell if something was serious or if it was April Fools.  [more]

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6

Pension fall short

April 01, 2008 – Comments (8)

The Ontario Teacher's Pension has always been considered one of the richest, but it is short about 12% by recent calculations.  [more]

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13

Alt-A and long term debt

April 01, 2008 – Comments (5)

Some of the headlines are claiming the write-downs and the end of the losses is near.  Anyone that has looked at the graphs around the Alt-A paper knows that simply isn't true.  [more]

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