Kraft had a 20% increase in sales but a 15% decline in profit? (702/608 - 1)*100%. [more]
Financial Times has a good post on the world food crisis. The article ties in how energy prices affect food, so with high energy prices food prices are likely to remain higher. [more]
Market Ticker has an interesting post about government bailouts for homeowners, and I make no claims about understanding what happening here. I don't know the details at all, and the post doesn't help me to understand the details. [more]
Wow, amazing really... [more]
Amazing, in the last quarter more than 0.5% of homes, 1 in 194, got foreclosure notices in this past quarter. [more]
Great, just great... A mouse ran under my bedroom door and apparently there are two wolves that have been seen around town and the bears will be coming out soon... [more]
It looks like many brands are going to struggle with pricing power in this next round. The NYtimes has an article about recession pricing. Consumers are changing their behaviour in response to increasing costs, "more pasta and less red meat, more video rentals and fewer movie tickets." [more]
E-Trade is having major upper management turnover, no doubt over its almost bankrupcy and extreme challenges due to its involvement in the subprime mortgage mess. [more]
I am back to using docstoc for this post as it makes putting a table in much easier. The tables you've seen in previous posts have been very labour intensive to include. [more]
This Big Picture post has some good links about how UBS lost $37 billion. There is a 50 page report on this stuff and is recommended reading.
I found the comments quite an interesting read as well and I titled the post based on one of the comments.
Richard Beddard at Interactive Investor put me onto this one today. He did a post on Richard Pzena and had an interesting link to a Forbe's interview with Pzena. [more]
I've been saying that I think pension plans are going to take a huge hit from the deleveraging and, well, best to just quote part of the article... [more]
Big picture had a post on the global food crisis, but what got my attention was a San Diego Tribune post that put a picture of a graph using "Shadow Government Statistic." [more]
How's that for a prediction? Almost as good as the S&P's prediction that oil will be between $41 and $141 by the end of the year.
This predicting stuff is easy.
"Ford posted an unexpected quarterly profit on Thursday, led by strong results in Europe and South America and a narrowing loss in North America." [more]
Bespoke has a great post that truly shows the rising P/E of stocks. It looks like the trend is very clearly up. They also put a red dot on graphs to show when the market topped in the fall. The fact that P/E's are rising when the market has declined means that these graphs truly don't show the degree to which earnings have declined. [more]
It looks like financial companies should be hiring workers to deal with the workload from deliquent accounts, but as anyone who's been following the markets knows, the financial industry is laying off workers. What I found interesting in this article is how overworked those handling mortgages are and that there were 90,000 more deliquencies in a period they were able to handle 50,000. [more]
My thinking when I first started investing was that with an aging population anything to do with the types of services they would use would probably do well. I've rethought my thinking... [more]
Caps players have become very well educated about how over valued homebuilder's still are because of Floridabuilder's posts. [more]
I've been saying for some time that I expect interest rates to increase. Perhaps it would have been better to say borrowing rate. [more]
This link is a kind of cool interactive link about whether people are better off today or not.
I should count my blessings as I am much better off than 5 years ago.
Bespoken has a post on the negative growth of earnings that have been reported by the 20% of companies that have reported so far. Currently it is at -37% year over year. [more]
It takes work to figure out a gold stock has hedged production, contracts to sell gold at a set price. Barrack has quite a bit of hedge on production from mines not yet produced. They've put out specially worded press releases, "No Producing Mine Hedged," which easily misleads the average investor. [more]
I just came across this news article about Vancouver having the lowest inflation. [more]
So, I like the increase power and ease of being able to add tables, graphs and pictures with using docstoc.com. [more]
I like the personalized Avtar thing and TMFJake has offered to personalize your avtar for you if you are an allstar. [more]
More and more economist are forecasting more than a $1 trillion in losses in housing. Frank Veneroso has added his voice to the estimates, $2 trillion in his case. [more]
Females go Ekkkk! I noticed Barry on Big Picture goes Urk, or something like that. [more]
I remember how expensive housing seemed when I was first shopping around. I knew where it had been, and there was no question that it was up. It took a while to accept what the prices were and I watched in disbelief prices go up an additional 20-25% before I jumped in. Prices did come down some, but I found that after I was in the market and had paid the outrageous price, I had a greater degree of "price acceptance," that home was worth $x and that one $y dollars and so on. But there was a period of price rejection in beliefs and before actually committing to buying. [more]
It seems there are lots of loophole in the law around the insurance. The law allows the FDIC to borrow money to cover losses should they exceed the reserves, which are only 1.22%, and only $52 billion.
I don't like this...
Things about the market that get me is the degree to which it takes off without any fundamental support, like CROX taking off to $75/share... [more]
Food security has been making the news. [more]
I'm sick and going to lie down shortly here, but I just saw a post titled "1 in 5 communities vulnerable to population loss." It is a Canadian story, but what interested me about the story isn't where, but more the effects of population on the markets. [more]
My sister sent this to me... [more]
Every once in a while I check the LME commodity prices and warehouse levels. In today's market you simply are working in the dark as to the degree of metals that are out there that are not being delivered to the LME but will ultimately be on the market for sale again, so seeing a low level isn't necessarily an indication of a tight market. Hedge funds often buy up commodities these days and distort the historical data. [more]
This week should be interesting. Reporting later in the week are many of the troubled financial sector, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, Bankcorp... It should be very interesting. [more]
Robert Reich has a piece that talks about how lowered standards of living and increased frustration leads to being able to rally people to the blame game. [more]
It was February 1985. I was 23 and I had just started at a job that I anticipated would be interesting, but problematic. I was planning on going back school in September so it really didn't matter. I only planned to be there for about 6 months. [more]
The Dow is truly a crazy benchmark because it is only 30 stocks and the more a stock costs, the more weight in has in the performance, and if it splits, its weight declines to half. [more]
I was reading The Mogambo Guru and he challenged his readers to, well, here's his exact words: [more]
I noticed Linens'n Things is likely to file for bankrupcy protection. I noticed that it was in serious trouble a few days ago only I couldn't find a ticker to underperform, oh well. [more]
I like some surveys and I like to contrast them to myself. This one is about how people say they are doing compared to 5 years ago. [more]
Good morning. Yves describes this one as a critter crawling out from under a rock.. This garbage never ends. Lehman has some questionable accounting and it appear that the investment banks that are now allowed to borrow from the fed are "taking their hung leveraged buyout loans and bundling them into collatearlized loan obligations so they can use them as collateral for loans fromt the Fed." [more]
The WSJ blog tallies the buybacks for 2007 and financial stocks were at the top of the list for buybacks. [more]
Bespoken has a post on median analyst expectation on commodity prices. I am sure commodity bulls, and gold bugs will have something to say about it and I think this post will be an interesting one to check back on in a year.
Story today with Merrill warning investors that financials are a "value trap" in that they look like they are under valued but there is no catalzyt for them to turn around and people are just realising the problem isn't just a US problem but in markets around the world. I've been warning since January 07. [more]
This is just an anonymous quote a friend was saying about a meeting... [more]
I was amused when I read the news just a couple days ago where Sam Zell said he was viagra for business, but reading Mish today I don't think the viagra is working... It seems the bonds for the Tribune are selling at 37c on the dollar. [more]
Today I became the first generation in my family.
Yesterday I was still 3rd generation, but my grandmother passed away. She was the last... My mom was the first to go, in 1976, my first grandpa in 1977, my first grandmother in 1994, my last grandpa in 1999, my father in 2004 and now my last grandmother, in 2008.
As adults media -- newspaper, radio, TV and now internet -- are extremely important for how we learn new information about the world around us. Before the internet media has been narrowly owned and narrowly controlled. [more]
You know how the autofill shows titles you previously used... I already used "Changing the Rules..." [more]
I couldn't resist this one. I suppose metaphors for strong is virile and impotent for weak. Sam Zell takes those metaphors to a whole new level...
I have the best sources... [more]
Big Picture has a piece that suggests that the current foreclosure rate and problem is under reported because lenders do not have the man power to handle it, so they are looking the other when when home owners start to default and homes that should be under foreclosure are not. [more]
You know the economy is bad when a store, Family Dollar, attempting under $10 pricing is seeing earnings decline by almost 1/3rd over a year ago. [more]
Bespoken has a piece about the buyout where JP has disclosed buying 11 million Bear Stearn shares for $12.24/share. It looks like they plan to continue buying until they get 49.5%.
In the past I've looked into a number of gold stocks and I have consistently not liked them. The grade of gold being mined is so low, the costs are out rageous. When I was researching stocks, and many mining stocks, what I was noticing was the downward trend in grade. [more]
Mish does a very good job of putting pieces together. He has one that ends with questioning the legality of bailing out Bear Stearn. I've seen other references that say the fed used a clause that hasn't been used since the depression, but Hussman gives reasons why it isn't legal. [more]
People aren't reading the employment data correctly. This CNN article covers the many ways employment data is far worse that what is reported. [more]
This morning appears to be a slow news day after all the April Fools jokes of yesterday, perhaps the largest being the 3.59% rally for the day. As I predicted fairly close to the top in the fall that smart money was selling into the rallies, I doubt that few buying yesterday will end up happy with their purchases. [more]
I was just thinking here, all day I could not tell if something was serious or if it was April Fools. [more]
The Ontario Teacher's Pension has always been considered one of the richest, but it is short about 12% by recent calculations. [more]
Some of the headlines are claiming the write-downs and the end of the losses is near. Anyone that has looked at the graphs around the Alt-A paper knows that simply isn't true. [more]