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speedybure (< 20)

April 2009

Recs

5

Ripe For The Picking

April 30, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , XTO , PBR

The value of any asset is the present value of all future free cash flow. That being said they resource complex/Basic mateials are severly undervalued for numerous reasons.  [more]

Recs

6

Why The Swine May Be Good For Mine

April 29, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SLV , GLD , PAAS

Let me Clarify I think this is a terrible thing especially for those in Mexico who are unable to find or afford such things as Tamiflu. This post is merely an observation of this epidemics potenial effects in the investment world.   [more]

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25

Death Of The Dollar: We'll miss you

April 27, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: UDN , GLD , SLV

From my econ blog-   [more]

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4

The Beniesh Model: How the formula detected 76% of accounting frauds over a decade including Enron & Worldcom

April 25, 2009 – Comments (0)

Beneish had a 76% accuracy as opposed to 17% for auditors and others over the course of his study. He also realized those that were very close to the threshold in addition the 24% he missed underperformed all benchmarks by an average of 12% from 93-2003. He also as a paper which i have not read on this tool as stock picker tool.  Here are the components a score less greater than - 2.22 is a red flag. 

 DSRI - Days sales receivables in year T / the DSR T-1. A large increase could be due to inflation  [more]

Recs

4

HERE IS A DCF: FCFE MODEL I JUST MADE IN GOOGLE. IT DESIGNED FOR COMMODITTY STOCK: ANYONE CAN EDIT THIS

April 25, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , AUY , SLV


http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rKgPMwkzor_lnX-a4wt1dTw i TAILORED THIS TO THE MINING INDUSTRY. I WILL MAKE A GENERAL ONE IF PEOPLE LIKE THIS, LET ME KNOW 

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5

Price to Book Value: The inherent problems that every investor should know

April 24, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: RTH , WMT , M

Book value to be begin with is already flawed due to its compositions/ asset classification, but a host of problems could arrive numerous industries (more so than others and some not at all) in a recession.  [more]

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9

The P/E Ratio: Fallacies and Foolishness

April 24, 2009 – Comments (9)

One of the most common valuation metrics is the P/E ratios, yet the widespread misintepretation can be very dangerous. Lets first discuss the components that compose this ratio followed by potential dangerous it may convey.   [more]

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3

Best Biotech Bets: Great entry point as focus was on pharma consolidation.

April 16, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GENZ.DL , CELG , AMGN

 For the most part I am one to avoid the biotech industry due to the inherent risks, but one must have a dynamic investment philosophy when opportunity is knocking at your door. I refer to my dyanamic philosphy as willing to put money to work when there lies a great amount of qualitative value and my own "margin of safety" -Ben Graham, calculation is met.  [more]

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15

Empirical Evidence The Crisis is Accelerating

April 15, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , UDN


 Here is empirical evidence that the crisis is accelerating despite the government intervention:
     [more]

Recs

10

Friends Don't Let Friends.......BUY NATURAL GAS!

April 15, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: XTO , CHK , OIH


Don't get me wrong, I love the future for natural gas. But the future is at least 2 years from now, possibly longer. Don't expect a new wave of 5 and 10 bagger Outperformers such as XTO and CHK anytime soon (speaking in general terms, there are always a few exceptions). The reasoning behind this thinking lies in elementary supply and demand dynamics.    [more]

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10

Best(Favorite) Gold Miners By Class

April 14, 2009 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: AUY , AEM , KGC


Listed Below are the best Senior, Mid-Tier & Junior Miners(production has recently started, not those who in exploration w/o production.) This is according to discount from intrinsic value.    Senior Miners) This is a tough group to narrow, but two of the four listed below are being discounted for the wrong reasons. I chose to leave out the biggest producers except for one.   [more]

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8

WHY A RECOVERY WOULD ACTUALLY BE WORSE.....

April 13, 2009 – Comments (2)


I agree that everyone would be happy and cheerful thinking we've printed our way back to the artifical economy we are used to. Here is my reasoning:    [more]

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5

SLW Valuation Model

April 13, 2009 – Comments (1)

This is the best I could do..  Inputs [1] Silver Price 2009 14 Silver price 2010 22 Silver Price 2011 28 Silver Pirce 2012 40 Silver Price 2013 65 Silver Price 2014-2015 35 Silver Price (Terminal) 24 Require Rate of Return 6.00% Total Resources 1,260,000 Current Reserves 609,000 Net Measured/Inferred Reserves 651,000 Reserve Multiple 60.00% Resource Multiple 15.00% Fully Diluted Shares 329000 Net Debt -239000 Tax Rate 10.00% Silver Wheaton Royalty Costs/oz 2009 Production 17400 2009 Purchasing Price $3.95 2010 Prodcution 27400 2010 Purchasing Price $3.98 2011 Production 32400 2011 Purchasing Price $4.01 2012 Production 34186 2012 Purchasing Price $4.07 2013 Production 36200 2013 Purchasing Price $4.14 2014 Production 38430 2014 Purchasing Price $4.20 2015 Production 39890 2015 Purchasing Price $4.30 Terminal Production 41000 Terminal Purchasing Price $4.90 Net Reserves 342,094 
  Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Royalty Revenue $243,600 $602,800 $907,200 $1,367,440 $2,353,000 $1,345,050 $1,396,150 Purchasing Costs $68,730 $109,052 $129,924 $139,137 $149,868 $161,406 $171,527 Operating Income $174,870 $493,748 $777,276 $1,228,303 $2,203,132 $1,183,644 $1,224,623 Interest Expense -$16,730 -$7,001 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Taxes $19,160 $48,675 $77,728 $122,830 $220,313 $118,364 $122,462 NOPAT $138,980 $438,072 $699,548 $1,105,473 $1,982,819 $1,065,280 $1,102,161 Debt Repayment $138,980 $100,020 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Capital Reinvestment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 FCF $0 $338,052 $699,548 $1,105,473 $1,982,819 $1,065,280 $1,102,161 Ke 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.26 1.34 1.42 1.59 Net Present Value 0 $300,865 $587,354 $875,638 $1,481,678 $750,980 $691,509 Debt Remaining -$100,020 0 0 0 0 0 0 NPV OF 2009-2015   $14.25 Terminal Value           29.87 Net Reserve Value      22.97 Net Resourve Value   9.69 VPS of Equity 1 )$44.12 VPS of Equity 2 )$46.91    [more]

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7

Silver Revisted: Best Strategies, Updated SLW valuation

April 13, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , SLV

*Valuation Model (accounts for silverstone aquisition, implies a 10% tax rate(just to be conservative, run through caymens so they don't pay IT.   [more]

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6

A Foolish Easter Present For Everyone: The Gifts That Keep On Giving

April 12, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , UDN , USO


As we all know, accurate Qualitative assumptions is what seperate the great investors from the rest. I think this accounts for about 65-70% of any investors performance. But having the adequate quanative skilles is also neccessary. In other words investors need have both the skills to maximize their potential. For those who wish to better both these asepcts may find the books listed below a healthy addition to their investing careers.   [more]

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6

A Great Turnaround Story In the Making: Lihir gold

April 09, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: LIHR.DL

Lihir has been a frustrating story in the past, despite their gem mine, which the company is named after. The management has finally cleaned up their act just in time for coming bull rally in gold. They have been troubled from transportation to energy, delaying numerous projects and squandering capital.  In order to avoid this turning into a reccomendation, I wish to mention why I think it is currently mispriced by the market.  [more]

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8

Myth's Cont'd

April 08, 2009 – Comments (6)

Myth 5: Economists, using charts or high speed computer models, can accurately forecast the future.  [more]

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9

10 Great Economic Myths - Courtesty of Murray Rothbard

April 08, 2009 – Comments (0)

One Of The Greatest Economic Pioneers Murray Rothbard    [more]

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7

Unconventional Strategies For Those Who Have A Strong Conviction In Gold

April 08, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV


Aside from buying actual shares or call options on the GLD,GDX or any Miners, there are some strategies some might consider. (I can't emphasize enough, know what your doing(risks), avoid margin buying or keep it to a minimum).    [more]

Recs

5

Dynamics of Precious Metal Miners Valuation Part 1: Broad Metrics To Narrow Those Worth Investing In

April 08, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , AEM


The first metric which may or may not be useful is the reserve ratio = Enterprise Value(market value of equity +net debt)/Proven Reserves  [more]

Recs

6

Why Gold Might Explode Today.... FED minutes

April 08, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , GDX , SLV

Though this is only my opinion, I think there is at least a 10-20% chance the FED annouces to increase their initial annoucement of 300 Billion of treasuries. Why do I think that?  [more]

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5

Diversification: Dynamic Shift Of This Paradigm

April 06, 2009 – Comments (2)


College Professors, money managers, etc, have always preached diversification as a neccessity in any ones portfolio and as rule of thumb for asset allocation. This held true until the bursting of our bubble economy starting in 2008, at least their version of what diversification really is. I agree with asset diversification , much in a much a safer, and in my opinion the only way to reduce risk. Though Henry Hazzlitt predicted this is his book written after Bretton-Woods, a fiat money system always ends in ruin. What is diversification then?? My interpretation in a nutshell is as follows  [more]

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4

The Silver Lining: Why This Metal Should Outperform Gold

April 06, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , SSRI , SLV

Though My four favorite commoditites include : Gold, Silver, Oil and Wheat, Silvers fundamentals are hard to overlook.  [more]

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36

Window of Opportunity Opens Again for Gold and Silver: Why this may be the last time

April 06, 2009 – Comments (29) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , UDN

 Gold and Silver will put in their lows we will likely never see again:   [more]

Recs

5

The Beginning of the end: China's encourages Int'l trade to be done using Yuan

April 05, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , GDX

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- China’s leaders, increasingly concerned about the nation’s $740 billion of U.S. Treasuries, are making it easier for trading partners and consumers to do business in yuan.  [more]

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4

Anyone interest in a contest on investopedia.com where you can allocate capital as you please?

April 04, 2009 – Comments (1)

Email me at marchese.chris@gmail.com

it would start monday and end the last day of the year or the last day of 2010.  

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4

Bernanke Vs Madoff

April 04, 2009 – Comments (1)


Violation  Madoff: Stole Clients Money  Bernanke: Destoroying The Wealth of an entire nation via inflation   Consequence:   Madoff: Life in Prison   Bernanke: Making a salary paid by the people from which he stole 

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4

The Austrian Businesss Cycle: Wealth accumulations through natural thought

April 03, 2009 – Comments (0)


  A quick outline of real economics by Roger Garrison is a neccessity for investing, for all finance is, is applied Finance. This provokes ideas of lucrative industries not yet recognized by the market but more importantly what not to invest in.

   [more]

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7

Gold's Weakness = Window of Opportunity in mining warrants (having substancial price discrepency.)

April 03, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: KGC , SLW , AUY


Aside from my past and continued bullishness on gold and silver equities there are some price/valuation discprencies occuring. Favorite equities from first to last:   [more]

Recs

5

Playing Gold and Silver Miners But The Risk Seems To High? Not an ETF But.........

April 02, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: RGLD , SLW , GDX


1) Silver Wheaton-See a Gem within the Rubble 

 

2) Franco Nevada - has over 300 different royalty interests- gold/silver/potash/oil 

 

 

3) Royal Gold - Same as above but Gold

Recs

5

Spy vs Spy: Phillip Morris vs Phillip Morris Int'l

April 02, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: MO

Given the circumstances MO is the ultimate value trap. Sure the valuation is great on paper in addition to an enormous 8% Yield. If you are in my camp a believe inflation will soon be a serious problem, Altria's EPS will increase in nominal terms but decrease in real terms. They can't increase the prices nearly to the degree of inflation that is a result of debt monetezation, deficit spending, and a significant amount of pure inflation thanks to defaults on bank credit/loans resulting from huge misallocations of capital. This capital is pure inflation because of our reckless banking system engaging in fracitional reserve banking. My previous posts illustrate what I think are the best industries(the ones that wiill outpace inflation) obviously gives a broad view, but even great bottom up investors will be taken out to the toolshed this time around. One name I always hear for MO is "recession proof", but it is not stagflation proof. Phillip Morris Intl (PM) on the other hand is both.   [more]

Recs

5

A Gem within the Rubble

April 02, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , SSRI

I always here people saying when is the bottom going to be in? We have beome so complacent inflating/deficit spending/ and using are debt to spend our way out of recessions i.e 2001, that most find it incomprehensible to think we will have a lost decade. I don't think it is just a lost decade, i think it is a lost decade with unimagniable inflationary pressures on the horizon. But all hope is not lost, there are a few industries that will will prosper far greater than in our bubble economy. Other than producing gold miners which are all extreme bargains, is the silver mining industry which in my opinion presents a far higher risk profile than the gold miners. Silver Standard Resources (ssri), (sso.to) is a buy, but I have become increasingly bullish on Silver Wheaton. Silver Wheaton obvisouly has a superb managment team as they have what I think, developed a dynamic model.  [more]

Recs

10

Austrian Investing: Exploiting The State

April 01, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: AUY , SLW

This is the ideal time for those who subscribe to the Austrian School of Economics to profit from the vast ignorance in American society. I say this because we understand the consequences of both credit and money inflation. Though all of you reading this probably already know this is a currency crisis and we still have not seen the magnitude of wealth destruction in the not too distant future. I don’t see the massive increases in the money supply stopping any time soon, as the government is doing exactly the opposite of what free market forces are telling us, which has now put hyperinflation on the table. But before the inflation rears its ugly head, the ideal situation for wealth preservation and creation is now.  [more]

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