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speedybure (< 20)

May 2009

Recs

7

HOW I AVOIDED THE CRASH (WELL NOT REALLY, 25% WAS IN EQUITIES)

May 28, 2009 – Comments (4)

The most difficult part of investing, at least in my case, is knowing when not to buy or sell. Although abstract (stocks are pieces of paper that your broker holds), It is very easy to become sentinmental over a company, thus emotional behavoir can hinder performance a great deal. I have slowly developed the discipline to sell when the intrinsic value is near or surpassed by the market price based on conservative valuation models. I began liquidating nearly 75% of my holdings when the Dow hit 12,000 for the first time, and had 3 quarters in cash by DOW 12,600. It was because I found little to no value in the market according to my criteria. Although I definetly failed to benefit from the  price appreciation in most equities, I had been rather efficient in avoiding losses. I'm writing this in hopes it will help people know when to sell a stock as I don't believe in Buy and Hold (with few exceptions), therefore avoiding losses.   [more]

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11

6 INCREDIBLE QUARTERS IGNORED BY THE MARKET

May 26, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , AUY , RGLD

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7

Precious Metals Miners Starting To Trade On Fundamentals

May 21, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , AUY , AEM


Those of you who have read my previous posts know how bullish I'm on G&S miners. I wish to comments on the price action as well as how favorite miners have done.  [more]

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7

THE VAST SHORTCOMINGS OF THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL & ALTERNATIVES

May 20, 2009 – Comments (5)

The Capital Asset Pricing Model is as precise at estimating risk as Moody's was for assesing sub-prime risk. There are several superior methods to determine risk for any given equity. But first let;s break down CAPM and expose the numerous shortcomings.  [more]

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4

WHERE BUFFET WENT WRONG....

May 20, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: BRK-A , BRK-B


Warren Buffet, considered one of, if not the great investor of all time, has few but significant flaws with both his qualitative and quantitative analysis of securities. I'm not saying he is sub-par by any means, but rather a few small valuation measures would have prevented him from buying some of his... let me see awful stock picks. I am referring to the financial industry ex-( goldmansachs and G.E as I believe their were stong political forces at work there).   [more]

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4

Sand Innapropriate For The Beach But Not Your Portfolio

May 14, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: SU , PWE , CNQ

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7

Yamana Might Want To Buy This...

May 07, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: AUY , AEM , GLD


Those who heard the Yamana quarterly results were mixed at best, should take a closer look behind the smoke and mirrors.    [more]

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5

Distinguishing "Value Stocks" From "Value Traps"

May 06, 2009 – Comments (1)


Investors often underperform their expected returns. In particular, this is common among so called "value investors". Whatever method they used to determine the value ( Relative valuation, discounted-cash flow, p/e, pe/g.pb, etc) may prove worthless if the company does conduct efficicent operations. There are two key measures which any "value investor" should employ against those in the industry and the market as a whole.   [more]

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6

Altria Stopped Smoking?

May 05, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: MO , PM


Although Altria looks like the ultimate value play, I believe is nothing short of a value trap.  [more]

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6

Consolidation Among The Gold Miners

May 04, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , JAGGD , ABX


Gold is going higher, much, much higher over the next several years. How high? Who knows? I believe a wave of consolidation will hit the industry in 2009 and 2010.   [more]

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4

All Inclusive Valuation Model: published via google docs and available for downloand and/or editing

May 02, 2009 – Comments (2)


DCF(FCFF,FCFE),H_MODEL,E_MODEL,Z-SCORE,G-SCORE & BENEISH MODEL Cisco is currently valued, but go to thompson Copy and paste  10-k, 10-year 10-k, 10-q, etc.Outputs include ration analysis, altman-z (probability of bankruptsy), Fundamental growth of EBIT = Reinvestment Rate X Return on Invested capital, Beneish Model (probability of accounting manipulation) 

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10

Global Warming: Another Goverment Scam!

May 01, 2009 – Comments (4)

 The graphs which are very important to this article can be found online at joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/skeptics_handbook_2-1.pdf.  Below it the text contained in the article but the graphs provided allow for no logical rebuttle. I edited this post because it exceeded the allowable characters.   [more]

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