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August 2012

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Intrinsic Value - a phrase that ought to be abandoned

August 25, 2012 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GRPN

In Prof. Damodaran's recent post on GRPN, he makes some comments about "intrinsic value" which I'd like to discuss. I've long thought the term is a misnomer so I will attempt to flesh out some of my critique. I'll be using his brief comments as a means of engaging the topic.   [more]

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Private Equity are GSE's?

August 21, 2012 – Comments (0)

This looks like it'll be an interesting series.  [more]

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Predicting Oil and Natural Gas Returns

August 16, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: USO , UNG

In a couple of previous blogs I looked at the relationship between CPI and commodities and using that information to predict future real returns of those commodities. First I looked at CPI/Gold and then looked at CPI/Silver and CPI/Platinum.   [more]

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Predicting Silver and Platinum Returns

August 13, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SLV , PPLT

I already looked at the Gold to CPI ratio to show how it can predict future real returns. It turns out that the same approach can be applied to silver and platinum.   [more]

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Gold to CPI ratio

August 11, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: TIP , GLD

This is a continuation in a series on the value of gold. Feel free to check some of my other posts including the subsequent comments:
The Shadow Price of Gold
Gold as an Inflation Hedge   [more]

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The Golden Dilemma and Emerging Markets

August 10, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

This is a continuation in a series on the value of gold. Feel free to look at the other articles in the series:
The Shadow Price of Gold
Gold as an Inflation Hedge  [more]

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Gold as an Inflation Hedge

August 07, 2012 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

This is a continuation of a series dealilng with the question: What is gold worth? The first blog I looked at the so-called Shadow Price of Gold and concluded that it is not a terribly good predictor of the price of gold. To the extent that it is, is due to the fact that M0 (the monetary base) is correlated with the price of gold.   [more]

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The Shadow Price of Gold

August 05, 2012 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

This may turn into a series of "what's gold worth?". As of now I have no definitive answers. My goal is to only look at some proposals which will largely be critical. Here's the first.   [more]

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Valuation Risk

August 01, 2012 – Comments (1)

I associate valuation risk with the broad set of risks associated with correctly valuing an asset. As an example, one must choose a model (which model) and then put inputs into that model to get a result which is the estimated value. Any such process has limitations.   [more]

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