As Sept reaches its end, I moved out of cash and back into large cap value at market close Thursday 9/29. I missed out on a nice 1.45% move in large cap value 9/29, however I did avoid a 2% plus sell-off Wednesday 9/28 so I am ahead by .5% in this two day period. [more]
TARP in Europe is coming. The market will dictate it. The economic leaders of Europe are wincing in pain at raising the capitalization requirements, but they will need to be sured up. Mergers will need to take place. It will be days not weeks before it happens. Political leadership will be born out of necessity where little has existed to date.
The market will not wait till October. The market will force their hand before their next meeting. The market hates uncertainty and Geithner knows this from our own crisis. This is why he insisted on action today.
I feel like MF author Rex Moore has picked an opportune time to bash market timing as we are moving higher in the teeth of heavy bearish sentiment. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/15/why-market-timing-is-a-joke.aspx?source=ihpsitth0000003 [more]
Moving back to cash this afternoon out of large cap value. There is no real momentum or conviction on the buy side in this market, only pockets of seemingly good news. One important consideration is that financing China provides to Italy or other Eurozone nations is really a stop gap aimed at plugging liquidity problems that are being percieved as real whether it is or not. It is a crisis of confidence. A liquidity crunch is like an animal that feeds off of bad news and grows louder each day. I would wait for overdone stories predicting financial implosion in the Eurozone before getting back into equities here in the USA. Cash is my bet and I may stay on the sidelines for a period greater than a week, which in this experiment http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/news-cycle-timing-september/639059 is a long time. [more]
I was reading Matt Koppenheffer's article on retirement investing "4 Stocks and 1 Critical Rule for a Comfortable Retirement" and I wanted to shed some light on what I have observed regarding retirement savings and where I agree and disagree. [more]
How about we cut the nonsense. If we are going to say we are aggressive with stimulus, give people cash now. The Fed Gov't should send out a check based on AGI, EIC, or EITC claimed in 2010. The stimulus cuts off at an AGI of 200K for HOH or MFJ and 150K for single filers. It applies to everyone claiming EIC or EITC. [more]
Last month I engaged in the fools game of timing the market based on the news cycle and was able to generate a return that beat the S&P 500 by 9.72%.http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/getting-defensive-here/626063 [more]