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October 2011



Does Alstry have a daughter named Siri?

October 27, 2011 – Comments (1)

I was talking with my boss the other day and he was telling me how great his new I-Phone 4S is. He said he most enjoys Siri because it can write and send emails, and remind him to do something when he gets home, as it can use the GPS to track when he arrives at his house. And so I mentioned to him that the Siri technology may shift the way we think about tasks and cause us to form a symbiotic relationship with our phone, almost like it is a required part of our human experience!!! He laughed and told me to calm down and Siri told me to stop reading Alstry's blog.  [more]



Market Timing - Late October Edition

October 18, 2011 – Comments (4)

Waded back into the large cap value index at market close but with a new philosophy. I will take the major index moves and buy a factor of 10x and sell a factor of 10x. So for example, with Monday's 2% sell off I moved 20% from cash to large cap value. If we sell off another 2% tomorrow I'll move another 20% of cash into large cap value. The key here is I expect choppy action with no clear bias long or short. I want to limit the downside by averaging down incrementally, but sell into strength if it shows up. If indexes move less than 1%, I reserve the right to stay put. I expect a gross return that is much less spectacular than the previous two month's but is more consistent with the thesis that there is no clear direction for the next 2 weeks, but the bias is down. I deem this strategy the hyper rebalance sideways market timing shall see.  [more]



I SPY a trend

October 13, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Occasionally, I will look at options on popular ETFs to gauge changes in market sentiment. I feel SPY S&P 500 SPDRs has sufficent trading volume to get a read through on the broader market.    [more]



Fun with Fibonacci

October 11, 2011 – Comments (0)

The S&P 500 has rallied over 9% in the past week and it is likely that we may see a short term pullback. Since the move has approximated 1100 to 1200, now is a good time to look at the key Fib retracement levels of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.   [more]



ECB: Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop?

October 08, 2011 – Comments (0)

The European PIIGS debt problems has left the European Central Bank to survey a sobering landscape. The downgrades by credit agencies on sovereign debt is a re-affirmation of the trouble right now. The exposure of banks and governments to the PIIGS is firmly in the crosshairs of investors. US bank exposure is estimated at over 600 billion while the German and French have 1.2 trillion in the troubled region. One could argue that international banks with large Eurozone exposure are starting to price in wide scale dilution and credit loses that could be realized if the crisis widens.  [more]



Timing The Market - Proof it is Not a Joke

October 05, 2011 – Comments (4)

Many people have taken aim at market timing stategies in these turbulent markets saying that no one has a crystal ball or can avoid the pitfalls of large market declines. I disagree and have some favorable results to backup my belief that there absolutely is a place for the individual investor to move in and out of equities and cash positions based on market conditions.   [more]

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