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Vet67to82 (< 20)

May 2009



FAS, Financials and the MS Upgrade

May 30, 2009 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: FAS , FAZ , XLF

Friday 5/29/2009 the market struggled 'till the last hour ... MS got upgraded ... that's what happened. I agree with the upgrade and the upgrade thinking ... the financial stocks were driven to ridiculously low valuations, sooner, or later, the BEARS, and the SHORTS, were going to overstay their welcome and should have expected improving fundamentals, outlooks, and stock prices, etc ... to result in "upgrades". Upgrades usualy result in increasing stock prices and can lift not only the target stock, but its brethren also. Soooo, it looks like  a short covering race that ran out of time at the four O'clock bell ... but appears to be struggling in the after market. As of the last report, MS is a FAS holding.

All too often, I see short positions, one of the "fundamentals" I monitor, that are increasing. even as the target stock's price is increasing ... DUH! I deem this is BULLISH, as these "borrowed" shares" are going to get called back by their owners. Actually, that deserves another DUH!. The fundamentals are increasing, the stock price is increasing .. instead of covering your shorts ... the evidence shows you borrow MORE stock you don't own, to short, and the MARKET absorbs every one of those shares and the stock price keeps climbing.  This is GREAT for FAS and Bad for FAZ.

Hint 101: The market absorbing all those additional shares you're shorting and the increasing stock prices are TWO CLUES your Bearish calls are WRONG. At what point, the point you MR JOE SHORT-SELLER do not seem to get, do the people you're BORROWING the shares from CUT you OFF and DEMAND the borrowed shares back? 

Mr. Joe Shortseller ... you should expect MORE upgrades; and, if you're lucky, Mr Joe Shortseller ... MS ( MS is held in FAS ) only goes to $35 ... and if you're not ... $50 plus ... June's upon us ... barbecue time. A Bears and shorts barbecue ... it's about time!

** Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shrs (FAS)
10.00 +0.53 5.60% Volume: 171,155,738 After Hours: 9.89 -0.11/-1.10% Vol. 1.40 Mil

FAS Charts: 10 day/ 15 minute ( 5/15/2009 - 5/29/2009 )
Moving Average Price Compare
Yesterday, FAS closed above its 13 minute moving average. This is generally considered to an indication of a bullish trend.

Moving Averages -- No current signals

Bollinger Bands
FAS is trading above its upper Bollinger Band. Relative to recent price action, the stock is currently overextended and due for either a pause or retracement.

The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bullish signal as the %K line is above the %D; however the oscillator has moved above the critical value of 80 and is now overbought. The overbought condition means that the upwards momentum experienced in this stock is not sustainable.

On Balance Volume
The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) presently offers a bullish signal. This is because the slope of the indicator is positive and shows that there is considerable buying interest.

Price Channel
FAS is trading above its 5 minute price channel. This means that the stock is trading at a new high for the period and the price channel will update to reflect that.  [more]



Today's US EIA Crude Inventory Report

May 28, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: DXO.DL.DL2 , UCO , XOM

The floating "global" inventory is not all slated for the USA ... clearly the tankers leased by Iran from the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have nothing to do with the USA ... probable destination - the EU, or China.    [more]



The market and consumer confidence

May 26, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FAS , FAZ , XLF

Consumer sentiment does affect the outcomes of of intraday moves ... maybe even for a couple of days ... Take, as an example, FAS and FAZ, but there is no indication of a long term effect.

As of 2:15 PM EST ......... as of 4 PM EST .....after hours
FAZ $5.00 -0.56 ................$4.96 -0.60 ........ $4.95 -0.01/-0.20% Vol. 945,785
FAS $9.70+ 0.92 .............. $9.71 +0.97....... $9.72 +0.01/+0.10% Vol. 1.22 Mil

FAS holdings .....
bac $11.11 +0.04 ............ $10.98 -0.09 ....... $10.96 -0.02/-0.18% Vol. 5.38 Mil
bk $28.71 +1.80 .............. .$28.84 +1.93 ....... $28.60 -0.24/-0.83% Vol. 550,982
gs $141.09 +4.74 ......... $142.05 +5.70 .....$141.95 -0.10/-0.07% Vol. 233,045
jpm $36.20 +1.79 ........... $36.54 +2.13 ....... $36.50 -0.04/-0.11% Vol. 2.05 Mil
ms $28.6225 +0.393........$29.02 +0.79 ....... $29.06 +0.04/+0.14% Vol. 543,811
trv $40.78 +0.52 .............. $41.41 +1.15 ....... $41.33 -0.08/-0.19% Vol. 227,850
usb $18.98 +1.15 ........... $19.04 +1.21 ....... $19.07 +0.03/+0.16% Vol. 889,528
wfc $25.54 +1.23 ............ $25.65 +1.34 ....... $25.63 -0.02/-0.08% Vol. 2.28 Mil

XLF $12.04+ 0.39 .......... $12.04 +0.40 ....... $12.10 +0.06/+0.50% Vol. 6.67 Mil

The meltdown was a GLOBAL meltdown. Many of the news reports and the comments I am reading have, and make valid points that are SMALL factors in the BIG picture ...small cogs in the global economic machine ...

Most of the hardest hit states, 5 to 6, and areas repeatedly pop up in the news ... like Florida and California. So, YES, some areas of the country are bad, Florida has no state income tax to fund its government and infrastructure needs ... its necessities; while California, keeps legislating anti-business agenda's without comprehending the BURDEN imposed on stockholders and consumers in other states to pay for them.  Both are examples of the state gov'ts and citizens' failures to use "common sense" in accounting for their OWN economic futures.

YET, the other 44 - 45 states and local communities are okay to even better than okay. One would, should, expect the areas of the USA that are okay, or better than okay, to reflect confidence based on their communities. The overly bearish news, and many bearish posts blatently ignore those positive factors. WHY?

There is " no " record of a successful USA economic recovery that took place without the stock market leading the way.  None!   This time the economic meltdown was not USA specific ... it was global encompassing ... and therefore, the gov'ts of the world, including the USA, MUST change and adapt to new global circumstances, new global scenarios, new global technologies, and embrace common sense rules and regulations for the current and future well being of the planet.

It is going to require the USA pay down debt. The sooner the financials pay back TARP and TALF monies, the better. Further, the USA gov't, upon receiving the repayments, MUST retire debt ... otherwise we suspect the gov't will SPEND the monies ... foolishly. TOO much of the planet's ecomomic resources are allocated to gov't debt . This DENIES inexpensive resources to business, resouces that could be tied to creating and keeping JOBS and Technology here, in the USA, ... instead of shipped out to other countries.

My outlook of a global economic recovery, is that of "in process" recovery, with a 2 - 5 year time frame ... and the USA has a great chance of its economy recovering first. The market SHOULD reward USA companies for the potential positives a "first economy to recover" implies to their future earnings power.   [more]



Current Crude Pricing and Outlook

May 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: DXO.DL.DL2 , UCO , USO

Frontline, and others, have reported 30 - 40 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and super tankers (1 - 2 million bbls of crude) being used as floating storage ... holding about 1+ days of global supply ...   [more]



Crude Supply and Bottlenecks

May 05, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: DHT , ENB , DXO.DL.DL2

If the crude being purchased and delivered to Cushing, Ok is delivered as collateral against futures to be sold in the contango game ... then it's NOT supply, IT'S COLLATERAL, ... until the contango players give up and go home. As collateral, it can't leave Cushing. When you tie up the storage, then you tie up the pipelines ... how do the refineries get resupplied?   They DON'T!  [more]



Mr. Warren Buffett likes WFC and GS

May 02, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: WFC , GS , FAS

Mr. Warren Buffett likes WFC and WFC is 5.22% of FAS  as of 3/31/2009.    [more]



American Express (AXP) - where to now?

May 01, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: AXP , XLF

Sector: Financial Industry: Consumer Financial Services
4/30/2009    $25.22  +0.27 (+1.08%)  Vol 38.30 Mil  [more]

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