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DiceMagic (< 20)



Still in Gold

December 11, 2011 – Comments (3)

After much wringing of hands and alarmist talk the EC members have been bounced along by Germany and France one step closer to a Federal Europe. New rules about fiscal stability and borrowing restrictions have been agreed at record pace and   [more]



A time to change my gold strategy

August 09, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

Here is a bit of thinking out loud...... I've had a long term target for gold of US$3300 (Calling the Gold Top) we are not there yet but things are beginning to reach a head. The worst of my concerns over the finances of banks, nations and companies are coming to pass. All markets are becoming very volatile and London stocks are showing signs of being ridiculously over sold. You can buy a quality blue chip pharma like GSK for less than 11 x PE and still get a dividend of nearly 7%. This morning the FTSE100 is under 5000 and going south, the out break of violence and riots across the UK is not helping. (btw don’t worry about the riots its just bored youth realising that the summer is the ideal time, many police are on holiday, school is out and the added tool of social media is something the authorities have not encountered before. Our reactionary right wing government is back from holiday and I fully expect a curfew, the reading of the riot act and the army on the streets today. Probably will shoot a few more people too before it all calms down) but apart from the affect on a few insurance companies and increased premiums this is not a major market issue. Anyway I diverge (I told you this was thinking out loud), But my thoughts are that gold is now (finally) entering its final stage of a bubble, expect a stratospheric rise in the gold price to go past its inflation adjusted all time high we are now entering the seriously toppy and volatile stage. If you are entering the gold market at these prices monthly 20-30% swings are likely and just buying in the dips is not necessarily a winning strategy. My strategy for the last 5 years has been buy gold in the dips, this is now changed. My strategy is now to sell gold on the spikes and look for value in quality blue chip pharma, utility and Tobacco. If you are entering gold at these prices good luck to you, if you are holding gold and have been for a while the time has come to prepare your portfolio for a change, I will move some gold to cash, to time my entry to blue chip defensives.I have been dismissed (not on this forum) as an out and out gold bug counting my sovereigns and krugerrands by letting them trickle through my fingers as wide eyed I say "its mine all mine, mine I tell you" but the truth is that I'm a firm believer in the correct deployment of capital and labour and the time has come to look for oportunities where my capital can be married with willing labour for the benefit of both. I will keep a few soveriegns just for keep sakes (I bought most of them at under US$300 per ounce) take them out now and again and allow myself an indulgent smile.   [more]



Gold is the canary in the financial coal mine

September 19, 2010 – Comments (1)

The canary isn't dead yet but he is chirping a bit less and is looking a bit off colour.  [more]



The Economics of the mad house

May 18, 2010 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

There comes a time when you can only judge a man by his actions and not his words. Here in the UK we have a bit of a problem with budgetary deficit, but that is the least of my worries, the deficit is what it is, the solution to the problem is not being made public and this is what worries me. The messages from our chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England are that inflation is under control and our currency is strong, but that is not what their actions suggest. All their actions suggest their preferred method of solving the deficit issue is not the trade our way with a strong economy, their current actions suggest that there will be a small amount of budget trimming in the region of £6-10 Billion a year and to let inflation rip. Today the CPI and RPI figures which, by the way are a work of fiction, have risen to 3.7% and 5.1% respectively. In the not too far distant past this level of inflation would bring an almost immediate rise in interest rates to attempt to bring inflation under control, in the brave new world of Cameron and Clegg the Governor of the Bank of England actually said “… inflation was likely to fall back as these temporary factors faded and would reach the 2% target within a year…” and “…policymakers had not ruled out further emergency support to the economy, potentially paving the way for more quantitative easing….” With the backdrop of UK interest rates effectively at zero and the pound in free fall on the foreign exchanges; to my mind the inflationary or deflationary debate is over. Judging the actions of these men it is now clear to me that their intention is to simply cut government spending a small amount and let inflation fly and follow a race to the bottom for the currency markets. For all those who have any amount of pounds or assets denominated in pounds I suggest you sell them now for Gold and Silver. Today saw a dip in the gold price which is nothing more than a buying opportunity.   [more]



As happy as PIGGS in muck

April 29, 2010 – Comments (0)

There are a couple of old sayings from the North of England, one "as happy as pigs in muck" meaning to be very happy in ignorance of your position and two "Where there's muck there is brass" which means there is money to be made in the worst environments. The sayings sprung to mind this week as more bad news and opinion spread concerning the Euro.  [more]

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