The over -6% GDP rate suggest we will go down -65% from DJIA high of 14,000
That -65% drop in the DJIA would match the drop of the 1929-1932 DJIA drop.
When the Government did not save Lehman stocks went on a historic 3 month Crash Sept-Nov. [more]
DJIA just crashed below 7,200 to 7,183
Downward Spiral has no end in Sight.
Obama budget has new $750B bank rescue contingency Obama budget has contingency for new bank bailout; cost to taxpayers could be $250 billion Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press WriterThursday February 26, 2009, 2:10 pm EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama anticipates another $750 billion bank bailout this year, a step that would more than double the direct infusion of taxpayer money into the reeling financial sector. [more]
WFC, BAC, JPM, C, ZION, GS, MS
See Biotech4ever's blog: [more]
Should we buy PUTS in all banks now? Day High??
What the heck is going on here,
Damn it, when is this data gonna start turning for the better?? [more]
People get fired = no more daily travel to work. Which equals less Gasoline use. [more]
Feb 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jan
-2.5% -2.3% -2.6%
Feb 26 08:30 Durables, Ex-Tran Jan
-2.2% -2.0% -3.6%
Feb 26 08:30 Initial Claims 02/21
625K NA 627K
Feb 26 10:00 New Home Sales [more]
Don't know what to make of it. I already said Oil March contracts will fall once we enter March.
He said oil will fall back down to $32 area in March because in Feb. many refineries shut down some operations. One example is the Northeast biggest refinery the Bayway Refinery in Linden,NJ which shut down for the entire month of Feb.
The shutdowns skewed the inventory numbers in favor of oil, but once they re-open in March you will see much bigger inventory build which will keep heavy downward pressure on the price of oil back towards $32/ barrel.
Too bad this stock is not rate-able it could easily rebound strongly.
Signs of life Commentary: The economy's worst may be past By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Feb. 24, 2009 Comments: 738 PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Although you wouldn't know it from the behavior of the stock market, the economic outlook is turning just a bit less gloomy. Prosperity may not be just around the corner, but statistical evidence is mounting to suggest that the worst of this recession may soon be past. And before you inundate me with email alleging that I am out of touch with the real world, let me say right at the top that I am not for one moment saying that the economy has stopped sliding. I am only suggesting that it appears to be contracting at a slower pace. Clearly, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the stimulus package that the president signed into law last week. As a matter of fact, if the recession does end within the next few months, it will probably be in spite of this package, rather than because of it. If you want a policy to credit, it's monetary policy. The combination of liquidity that the Federal Reserve has pumped into the economy, along with its special lending programs and capital injections into the banks, is largely responsible. But you want more than assertions; you want proof. And here it is: The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators has risen for two months in a row. Producer prices have increased for two straight months. Consumer prices rose in January -- the first monthly gain in six months. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping key raw materials like copper, steel and iron, has more than doubled from its recent lows. Existing-home sales rose in December, and participants in our weekly survey think that another rise took place in January. Pending home sales went up in December. Builders' confidence inched up this month. Thanks to lower interest rates, applications for both new mortgages and refinancings of existing mortgages are rising. Real hourly earnings rose 4.5% in December following a 3.3% increase in November. An index of consumer expectations rose in January. Retail sales shot up by 1% in January -- the first monthly rise since June. The decline in consumer credit moderated in the latest month. New orders for consumer and nonmilitary capital goods went up in January. The ISM index of manufacturing went up last month. The ISM index of services rose last month for the second month in a row. The money supply is soaring, a sign that there's plenty of liquidity in the economy. The 3-month London interbank offered rate, a measure of banks' willingness to lend to each other, has dropped to 1.2% from close to 5% a number of weeks ago. Other measures of the state of the financial markets, like the TED spread and the 2-year swap spread are down, as well. Prices of credit default swaps for banks have fallen from their peaks. The corporate-bond markets are thawing out, too; some $127 billion in dollar-denominated debt was issued in January, the most for any month since last May. Some securities on banks' books are starting to recover in value. All this said, the economy is still a long way from a pink-cheeked state of health. But remember, you've got to crawl before you can walk. And it looks like the economy is about to do just that. Irwin Kellner is chief economist for MarketWatch, and is Distinguished Scholar of Economics at Dowling College in Oakdale, N.Y. [more]
The company has been profitable thru-out this downturn. Its only problem was the debt squeeze on cash. Now that has been solved for the near-term. [more]
PKD beat by .12
FE beat by .06
PWR beat by .05
We will see if they do better then GLF yesterday which rallied to $24 only to fade with the market and close at $21.13
GOOG Change: -16.39 is just one example. There are hundreds if not thousands of more examples how all hell broke loose today. Even stocks that beat estimates by a wide margin had a tough time staying green. One such stock was GLF, which went as high as $24 to start the day only to finish at $21.13 [more]
Look at these stock day highs today vs. current prices, most longs got massacred again today:
WFC $12.95 now 10.98
KDN $29.77 now 26.65
POT $86.65 now 78.42
GLF $24.05 now 21.84
MOS $44.47 now 38.60
saying that if we break the current lows we are headed for another 2000 point drop in the DJIA.
That would be 5,000 DJIA. If that happens then all the gains of the last 30 years would all be wiped out.
that we would hit 7,000 on DJIA and he would be buying heavily on that day? [more]
thats the question, stuck between a rock and a hard place.
most people out and get in all the greedy shorts on the short side and then "BAM" [more]
Last time GOLD hit $1000 GDX was closer to $50/shr , its trading below where it was at $36 and is undervalued in comparison to GLD.
"This is a secular bull run that will take time to complete," says Smyth.
While many attribute investors' move to gold as a flight to safety, Smyth disagrees. Instead he sees this as a shift on asset allocation.
" It used to be everyone had some gold in their portfolio, but when gold dropped in value, it also got dropped from portfolios," he says. He says advisors are returning to the opinion that all portfolios should have some exposure to gold, also causing the increase in demand.
Adding to the increase is the devaluations of currencies around the globe.
"Foreign investors, like Americans, are nervous about their banking systems and buying gold ETFs in their own currency," Smyth says. "You can even get a redemption in gold."
Banks are joining the game as well. Private banks like Julius Baer have begun creating their own gold ETFs for their clients. [more]
7,000 DJIA resistance to be tested before we can have any chance at moving higher
now that we broke well below 7,500 DJIA, Very Scary trying to buy on any rebound today because Mondays have been well known for massive selloffs to resistance levels.
Black Monday is coming??
TSO beats by .08 by is still down by -.95 to $15.25 albeit on light volume 1,500 shares. [more]
DJIA is breaking Nov. 21 lows Intraday. Now at DJIA 7484
Current Estimate 0.91
Thats for a stock at only $16.60/shr
The Gasoline Crack Spread with OIL has gotten wider and TSO is making big profits again.
Obama Pledges $275 Billion to Stem Foreclosures, Help Borrowers
By Alison Vekshin and Roger Runningen [more]
now only 23% analysts expect China's growth to fall from 70% just a couple of months ago. [more]
I heard HEDGE funds got massive redemptions this week and that is one reason we re-tested lows. They sold their weakest holdings and repositioned their remaining funds into the strongest stocks looking forward. This will bold well for the rest of Feb. heading into March when the majority starts getting the average $4,000 tax refund per family with a single family house. That should help halt redemptions for the next few weeks. [more]
Jesus Christ it fell 297 pts yesterday and it can't even hold a 20 pt rebound.
We should expect to see a major market meltdown of say -500 to -700 pt down day on DJIA with massive selling volume. Thats when you know we have climaxed on the selling pressure. But until that happens you can't say we reached bottom.
Gold is a safe haven in the mean time.
But who has the last laugh now. Only 74 points away from the re-test.. and hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars running out of equities and heading into GOLD.
AU, AEM, ABX, GDX, GLD, GG, GOLD, NG, RGLD, UXG
Look at GDX, GLD, GOLD, RGLD, NG, UXG
Barron said BAM going to $70 LOL, did they mean $17?
Brookfield Asset Management: Low Profile, High Performance - Barron's [more]
but its been crushed this year. It may become the next Berkshire in the future but its crushed my hopes so far this year. Wish I never heard of this company.
This market is really giving me some big stomach pains. In a crazy move that I know will haunt me , I sold it all. after I could not take the pain anymore.
08:30 ECONX January Retail Sales +1.0% vs -0.8% consensus, prior revised to -3% from -2.7%
Forget the minor upside in initial claims which are a lagging indicator. Look at the Retail Upside Shocking Surprise.
ahead of Bank hearings today:
Bankers Pledge to Lend, Stem Foreclosures [more]
Stimulus pared to $789 billion in race for deal Emergency stimulus cut to $789 billion as House, Senate negotiators rush for final deal David Espo, AP Special CorrespondentWednesday February 11, 2009, 1:10 pm EST Yahoo! BuzzPrint
WASHINGTON (AP) -- House and Senate negotiators agreed to pare economic stimulus legislation below $800 billion and reached for a final deal with the White House on Wednesday on a bill designed to create millions of jobs in a nation reeling from recession. [more]
told him they would rescind some of the 22,000 layoffs they recently announced once the stimulus is signed into law.
I admit I came into FAS early in Jan at $20+ but now at $8.74/shr this ETF has been beaten down by well over 50% in just 1 month's time. Financials are the heart of the American Industry. There is no way America works without financials. Thats why FAS will eventually rise back to $20+ and well beyond that much sooner than most might think is possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stocks will make a rebound in a very quick hurry and then will leave many wondering how they missed the bottom. [more]
no matter how much you want to think this is a free market, its not. When the FED. wants to, they can put a stop to shorts in a drastic hurry and they usually do it right when the majority of people are so sure that shorting is a no brainer.##############################Fund managers react angrily to FSA plan to name all short-sellers
The Stimulus passes, the tax breaks that the republicans wanted were added, and the shorts just keep on attacking. But while the majority including myself now wait on the sidelines for the next short trap squeeze trigger, I will just keep laughing at your stupidity because all you are doing is giving me and the others on the sidelines better and better values. Keep shorting all you want, but sooner rather than later you will either get crushed for being too late to the trigger or will believe in your own misery and miss the chance to go long. [more]
the announcement of Stimulus + New Bank idea + Suspension of Mark to Market rule.
That would send the bears running for the hills. I just hope the market goes up gradually because its hard to buy when they all go up at once.
Strongest retailer in a Bear will rally back the fastest. [more]
4-Star Stocks on the Upswing
By Motley Fool Staff
February 2, 2009 | Comments (0) [more]
Stimulus Plan Should Give a Shot in the Arm to Health IT [more]
and it never has to be repaid back unless you sell your house within 2 years of purchase. [more]
The Internet has fed Human nature's need for Instant Gratification. [more]
Looks like majority bulls already were in so they sold on the news. But thats great news for people buying today.
Dollar Tree raises 4Q and full-year guidance [more]
so far since the first week of Jan.
I have been able to pick some real big winners prior to big positive earnings surprises.
But thats all I am going to say because I don't want to give them a free plug.
Thursday February 5, 02:06 PM
UPDATE 1-Dolby Labs Q1 results beat Street, ups 2009 earns viewhttp://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG16434220090204?rpc=44
Wed Feb 4, 2009 6:28pm EST [more]
CSCO beats by .02 , DLB beats by .13, BMI beats by .16
PUT buyers were the contrarian indicator today and it worked perfect.
China restructures mobile market ready for 3G force
updated 1:45 a.m. EST, Thu January 29, 2009 [more]
But wouldn't this be good news? It would mean they don't need it. [more]
5,861 volume compared to only 2,881 open interest. Contrarian indicator would mean that DLB would beat estimates with so much PUT buying. [more]
Food is the rare sector that is holding well as prices for ingredients has fallen. But we will see on Thursday if Forbes made a good pick. [more]
One example is DMND which last week surprised to upside. [more]
Feb 04 08:15 ADP Employment Change Jan -522K vs.
-535K consensus ,Prior -659K, revised from
Republicans, for their part, readied a plan to lower mortgage costs to try to jolt the housing market out of its slump. [more]
14:26 Senate Republican plan proposes cutting U.S. corp. tax bracket to 25% from 35% for 1 year - Reuters
you too can take advantage of the refinance at 4% to 4.5% , I plan on refinancing my mortgage as well. I will save $576/mo for 30 years. [more]
Housing aid gaining steam in stimulus bill Housing plans gather support as Senate takes up economic recovery package Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate WriterMonday February 2, 2009, 6:00 pm EST Yahoo! BuzzPrint Related: Bank of America Corporation, Beazer Homes USA Inc., Centex Corporation
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homebuyers could see lower mortgage rates and get tax credits as part of a sweeping economic stimulus package being considered on Capitol Hill. [more]
DJIA now up +62, NASDAQ up +9, S&P 500 up +6.69 [more]
10:00 ECONX December Pending Home Sales m/m +6.3% vs 0.0% consensus, prior revised to -3.7% from -4.0%
is a certainty, who ever is buying right now is nuts.
KCI stock fell from $50's to $20's on Litigation, Now its Won the case. [more]
Its stock has been rallying on the coat-tails of a lawsuit against DISH but TIVO will at most get $200M from DISH according to Goldman Sachs analyst and thats only if they win the lawsuit in mid. Feb. furthermore new recorders are coming out soon that avoid TIVO patents. It does not look good for TIVO longterm.
Who remembers the last recession? Cable & Satelite stocks got crushed much like they have in this recession. But they rebounded with a fury because people did not shut down their Televisions in a recession, and when the recession showed signs of a recovery they went up even higher then their previous highs.
Thats a relief at least for today. [more]
because his statistics advisors let him know that the market has rallied whenever the Steelers Won the SUperBowl.
All that crap that the Steelers are 2nd in his heart only to the Chicago Bears is all nonsesnse and he knows it. He doesn't even look like a sports nut except maybe basketball, "sarcasm"