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October 2009



The Stock Market is 40% Overvalued

October 28, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , GE , MSFT

That's what economist Andrew Smithers wrote in his most recent report to clients. Dismissing this tidbit out of hand could be costly. In Valuing Wall Street, published in March 2000, Smithers warned investors that the U.S. stock market was dramatically overvalued;... [more]




5 More Signs Irrational Exuberance is Back

October 27, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SPY , JPM

At this stage, the burden of proof must surely lie with those bulls who claim that current market prices are entirely justified by fundamentals. Nearly two weeks ago, I highlighted 5 Signs Irrational Exuberance Is Back... [more]



Which Large Bank to Sell

October 26, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , JPM , C

Recently, we answered the question, "If I had to buy a big bank ..."

Morgan Housel went for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM),... [more]



Why Wells Fargo Lost to the Market Today

October 21, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , C , WFC

Surely these are headline numbers to please the most despondent: During the third quarter, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) generated record net income of $3.2 billion, doubling its year-ago figure. Earnings per share rose at a more modest 14% to $0.56 per share, but that was over 50% ahead of the analyst consensus estimate. Yet as I write this,... [more]  [more]



GE's Results Are a Black Eye for Bulls

October 17, 2009 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GE , MSFT , PG

As Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist rightly pointed out in a client note last week: "As investors attempt to gauge the depth of final demand in the economy, market focus will shift to top-line results. Firms will have to report strong [third-quarter] revenue and positive top-line surprises ... [more]



5 Signs Irrational Exuberance Is Back

October 15, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: XOM , WMT , KO

At a time when many pundits or "investors" are grasping at straws to justify the market's run, I'm seeing an increasing number of buds of "irrational exuberance" (in the words of the maestro bubble-blower Alan Greenspan). It's as if the crisis was a sharp but fleeting pain that investors wish to relegate to the status of a bad memory. [More]  [more]



Can the Market Keep Rising?

October 12, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: JNJ , GE , BAC

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed at a one-year high of 9,864.94 -- 51% above its March 9 low -- and the broader S&P 500 index closed just shy of its 52-week high. This furious rise has sparked intense debate... [more]



Dow, S&P 500 Return Forecasts

October 05, 2009 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: JNJ , MSFT , XOM

Thanks to a huge rally off the market's March 9 low, the S&P 500 and the Dow have just put in their best quarter since 1998. Bulls are coming up with all sorts of reasons to justify the rally – and to explain why it will continue. Meanwhile, bears have been wringing their hands with increasing intensity. Who's right? ... [more]

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