Oh this was so predictable. Oil was mid 40s when I first advised people to start playing it. This has nothing to do with supply/demand. This has to do with speculation and seasonality. There is still time to ride this wave. Oil being stored on tankers are being done so for a reason. Smart money won't sell the product for $40 when they are pretty sure they might get $70. And odds are they will. Use the Jeff Macke "crayon" rule (was one of THE best calls last year). Keep playing it until it breaks down, which I suspect will occur in July. [more]
Did anyone think the market would just rise straight up without some kind of profit taking? Listening to the pundits just cracks me up. Market corrects, as it needs to, and you have them all shouting omg end of the world continues. Just turn off the volume. The worst villain is our good old friend Jim Cramer. On Friday he says buy buy buy energy and oil (which personally I do think is a good thing to do LONG run). On Monday he decides to hedge his typical flipflopping by saying unemployment, inflation, politics, even the weather could derail his bullishness. Cover all those bases Jim. On Tuesday he says omg buy on the dips. On Wednesday he says go defensive. He has literally covered every single base in less than a week. And when Guy Adami called Cramer a true public servant, I almost choked. Yes, Jim Cramer who gets paid for his show, gets to hawk his books for free, gets to hawk his newsletter for free is a true public servant. His show is simply unwatchable. [more]
This article caught my eye from Seeking alpha: [more]
Blogged this before. Get on the energy bandwagon. It typically goes up May-June. Oil has even broken the $55 TA cap. Nat gas has been finally rising too. It is still not too late. integrateds will work fine. Personally I like BP. I own the stock (mainly for its yield) and I play its options. Made money off the July 35s call, and rolled profits into the July 40s call. July 45s should work just as well.
Just thought it was funny that tonylogan1 starts a thread entitled "Do Not Rec This Blog" and so far has gotten 25 recs., including one by me lol ;p
We have this constant debate between bulls and bears here. Bears claim this is nothing but a bear rally and we will crash again. Bulls are arguing that further highs are in the charts and you saw your bottom early March. Both sides make their arguments. But in the end it really is all about GDP. Anything goes with individual stocks. Many factors, including GDP growth, will impact a stock's direction. But it really is no coincidence that the market plunged as much as it did the last 6 months along with the biggest consecutive drop in GDP in over 50 years. [more]
Reprinting this point from another blog of mine. It wouldn't surprise me if there are alot of people out there who stayed on the sidelines of this rally, wished they gotten into it but are afraid to enter at this point. While I still submit it is not too late to buy the energy stocks since many are still closer to their lows than even their midway point, one way to do it is to buy that initial stake. Then simply sell puts for the stock at the lower prices you wanted. If the stock continues to rise well you made a profit at least and you keep the put premium. If the stock does drop, well you still keep the premium and you get the stock at a discount to its current price. [more]
I had posted in many threads about being careful shorting stocks generally during the month of April. The reason I gave was simple, April tends to be an up month from a seasonal point of view. I have also said that oil would start to come into its seasonal period (May through June). There is still plenty of time to play it. You can play the ETFs I suppose, but there are still a ton of oil stocks out there that I submit will start to move up. [more]