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fredmReston (< 20)



JAVA - Why I ended my pick

March 21, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: JAVA.DL , IBM

I ended my pick on JAVA the other day after the talks with IBM were announced.  With a 100+ point ride up, it didn’t make sense to hold on anymore.  In a sense, that was a “home run” stock, knocked out of the park and for once, I had sense to stop right there.    

I have experienced past painful lessons in my real life portfolios, which didn’t include JAVA this time, where a meteoric rise in a stock cause me to buy more instead of lightening the load.  The next time will be different.

As a comment on merging JAVA and IBM, I have to wonder what will remain? There are many overlapping technologies -- DB2, MySQL, hardware, tapes, application servers, so what gets squashed.  [more]




May 08, 2008 – Comments (1)

After long months in the negatives I've turned a new leaf.  Gone are the grim days showing red ink on the blotter.  Quivering in the shadows at every sight and sound.  Every day was a bloodbath.  Now there is a show of green thats the hue of American money -- greenbacks!  Come to papa baby!  At least for today I can revel in the glory that I'm ahead of the game. I'm still well behind the leaders but if I look back there's a whole lot more folk behind me so I can keep smiling. Tomorrow however, remains another story.

There's something of a lesson here, I just know it.  If I dig deeply enough, reflect long enough, I’m sure I’ll find it.

Perhaps its Pandora opening her box releasing all the ills on the world only to open it one more time (just one more pick) and finding hope.  Perhaps Warren Buffets analogy of the slot machine (things went badly initially) turning into a scale long term (growth occurs).  Maybe the rising tide raises all boats.  Maybe it’s shrewd skill and cunning, probably not -- I just don’t have the time.

In any event, you can't know if you're winning ot losing if you don't keep score.




February 02, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: AAPL , GOOGL

Man!  What a month!  Apple lowers it guidance (like it always does) and suddenly $200+ per share slips -- slips to $130.  That's 35% down.  So much for my CAPS pick to beat the S&P.  My outlook isn't changed, I'm long-term bullish so this would represent a buying opportunity if the rest of my speculative portfolio weren't being crushed as well.  [more]



Will Google ever Quit?

November 05, 2007 – Comments (3)

Man, what a horrible first CAPS pick, Google at $620 to go down.  Maybe timing is everything.  It seems that bubble madness is taking over on select stocks.  Google can do no wrong and more and more people buy.  Granted I initially funded my sons 529B with profits from the sale of Google but if I held on another month, I could have funded it entirely.  [more]



When to start

October 23, 2007 – Comments (0)

Starting out. When to start is always the question. With CAPS, I seem to be starting out at the top, Like Joe Investor, I’m buying high. The market is in turmoil and my prognostication seem flawed (okay, Apple was spot on but Google, last earning they tanked after beating the street). So, my CAPS score reflects this, negative. And this is only my 7th day.   [more]

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