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TheDumbMoney (76.38)

December 2010



Don't Take it on Faith that Exxon Overpaid for XTO, and Other Year End Thoughts

December 30, 2010 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: XOM , CVX , RDS-A

Well, the time of year has come to review my stocks, sanity-check myself, and prepare for next year.  This is particularly necessary for a guy who is currently rocking a sub-20 CAPS rating.  The first stock for which I am doing this is Exxon, XOM.  I conclude that although I have achieved nothing much with XOM in CAPS/outperformance since I joined CAPS in February, I see nothing wrong with this investment.  Read on to see why.  [more]



Why I Just Bought Cisco

December 22, 2010 – Comments (19) | RELATED TICKERS: CSCO , JNPR , MSFT

I just posted this in my new pitch for CSCO, and I'm also posting it here.  What I would really like is for someone to step up and tell me why I'm an idiot and out of my mind, and thus maybe teach me something new.  Thanks!  [more]



Must-Read Blog Post For Owners of MSFT and GOOG

December 17, 2010 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: MSFT , GOOGL

Via Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed, this hyperlink is a must-read reality check blog post for boosters (like myself) of Google and Microsoft. 



Is Now the Perfect Time to Buy a Home?

December 06, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , C , WFC

See here for a slideshow presentation on why now may be a perfect time to buy a house.  This is via Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed.  [more]



Is MSFT Wildly Undervalued? -- Maybe Not, But It Ain't Bad

December 05, 2010 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: MSFT , GOOGL , AAPL

I have spilled a fair amount of ink, as have various professionals whose opinions actually matter, on how undervalued Microsoft seems to be.  Much of it focuses on historical ratios.  While I am not backing off of that entirely, I ran a few FCF analyses on Microsoft this morning (that's how I like to spend a lazy Saturday morning, so shoot me!), and while it is in fact undervalued, it may not in fact be undervalued.  However, FCF growth assumptions depend highly upon whether you look at the 10-year or 5-year track record as a starting point for your analysis.  The good news is that the 5-year track record is much better than the 10-year.  Also, even a conclusion that MSFT is not much undervalued depends upon some seriously conservative assumptions, as discussed below.   [more]



Is Netflix a Giant Vampire Squid on the Face of the Internet?

December 03, 2010 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: NFLX , CMCSA , VZ

Yes it is!  Here is an excellent article explaining why, and helping to demonstrate why net neutrality in America must end.  [more]

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