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TheDumbMoney (42.74)

December 2011

Recs

5

I'm Looking for A Few Good U.S. Small Caps

December 22, 2011 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: RLI

I'm looking for U.S. smallcaps in boring industries that are generally overlooked by analysts but that are great (if non-spectacular) companies with long track records of reasonable success.

A prototypical company in this mold would be RLI Corp.  (RLI). 

If anyone has ideas, please post below.  Thanks!

Recs

19

Updating the Gold Model

December 13, 2011 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , AUY

I have blogged quite extensively, for example here, about Eddy Elfenbein's model for gold, and posted about it on multiple threads of Fool and other random bloggers, since at least July or August of 2011.  Peter Brandt digs it, and now I note another respected financial/investment blogger, David Merkel, of Alephblog, has updated and highlighted the model.  His post was also highlighted today on AbnormalReturns.  My post above says more about the model than Merkel's post does, but it is a symptom of the broadening of the appeal of this model.  Merkel thinks gold keeps going up because of this.  I do not, in the short term.  I think if you see signs of deflation without further Federal easing (and/or liquidity problems), as we have been seeing, then gold goes down.  I don't see gold having another major spike until and if either: a) the economy improves but without the Fed taking its foot off of it easing gas; or b) the Fed implements another round of quantitive easing.  But that's just one non-expert's opinion.  [more]

Recs

6

IRA So Far 2011 -- And Plea For Help

December 07, 2011 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

So the IRA portion of my self-invested funds is currently up 9.03% YTD, which is thomping the S&P, which is up a little over 1%.  Who knows how it will end for the year, but it's clear I'm having a better year than John Paulson is.  I have not yet tried to calculate my returns on my non-IRA invested funds, but I'm working on it: my gut is that my cumulative 2011 returns are similar to holding the S&P, but a few percentage points better.    [more]

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