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newbietrader1 (< 20)



The way I see things.

September 29, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , DIA , QQQ

  Well Europe is in bad shape financially and will be for years to come. Their leaders like most of the worlds Countries thought it was just fine to have debt in the good economic times. They thought we have everything under control ( ego ) we know what we are doing. No one listens to the one that they say does not know what he's talking about ( one some call a nut ).  Look out the IMF might be trying to help, Iwonder where do they get their money from ( sarcasm humor ).  [more]



Red Wings and Bright Spots?And Or Ouch.

August 08, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: QQQ , DIA , SPY

          With Europe's current problems and slowdown due to gas prices and forced austerity and someone is considering raising interest rates (?). This is going to continue to affect the U.S. economy in a negative manner.

          Well Japan's problems are not going away very fast with only 19 of the 54 Nuclear plants running and the stress test they are performing on them it is not clear what additional measures would be added for safety. And apparently they are still having trouble with the damaged Nuclear plants and it seems to change back and forth. Japan gets about 30% of it's electricity from Nuclear power. And since they shutdown their Nuclear power plants down for complete inspect on a regular basis they could be without Nuclear power by next April. If the Nuclear plants shut down for maintenance face delays the country could face an electricity (power) shortage above the current problems.

         Bright spot employment report nonfarm payroll employment rose by 117,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, manufacturing, and mining. Government employment continued to trend down. Still the stock market sold off and now the top hedge funds put QE3 at 60%-66%. Then we have the problem on U.S. debt being down graded most people saw it coming. On the good side they will be trying to cut Deficit Spending Credit after the political blame game and mud slinging is over. On another subject such as credit cards spending grew 7.9%, or $5.21 billion dollars makes you wonder where that money was spent nonrevolving credit such as auto and student loans grew 7.6%, or $10.32 billion. So in these economic times why would consumers add 5.21 billion dollars in credit card debt. Perhaps things are getting better and I'm just looking to hard for the negative.Wings by Ed WellsAnother bright spot oil going down for how long. After looking at everything I'm convinced Gas prices at the pump between 2.75 to 3.00 a gallon are the key to our economic recovery. Someone ask me what I thought the chances of a recession was, I said I we did not come out of a recession. Yes I know technically two negative quarters of growth is considered a recession however that's just numbers and not the real financial difficulty that is inflected on the people experiencing the problems. About the only thing government can do is get out of the way however if the Elected Officials want to take credit for good economic activity then they should take responsibility for the bad. We have a former Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) here in Arkansas that was not reelected is doing what she can on her on time to help small businesses by trying to stem the tide of regulation that is overwhelming them. By trying to get impartial studies done showing the financial impact (jobs) that they have on businesses. This is just one of the things holding businesses back from hiring this will be a slow process. I have looked back at my other writings and if you did not know me you would probably think I was a doom and gloom with everything is bad I however try to present things in a straight forward manner without the fluff. I just wanted you to know I have great belief in this Country and it's ability to overcome any problem. And as you know this does not mean the market is going up or down but you knew that right.   [more]



Budget and the Defict

July 27, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: DIA , QQQ , SPY

This is something that I have had a concern about for many years. And have through out the years talk to many people about. Most Americans will not like the truth about how hard it will be to pay of the national debt. I honestly wonder would they vote for someone that told them the truth about what will have to be done to start paying it off. With the U.S. spending about 1.29 trillion dollars more than it brings in just to not increase the national debt they will have to cut and or raise taxes by about 1.29 trillion in one year they are projecting about 1.4 trillion this year . And with the economy in the shape that it's in any cuts in spending not to mention tax increases will have some effect. Do the math people there will be higher taxes and fewer government services for anyone. Gas prices will play a big role in just how much the economy slows. (The very elected officials that cause this problem were the ones that the people kept reelecting them because of the promises made with your tax dollars. Whats sad is these Elected Officials do not think they did anything wrong and might get reelected by the same people.) This is what could be considered the perfect storm brewing Thunder by Ed Wells which could cause this  economy to fall back into a second dip (recession) for sometime to come. I know some people have considered this but just have not said it out loud. On a lighter note (pun intended) a song comes to mind I heard the other day (Video)Don't Bring Me Down(Just Music)  by Electric Light Orchestra. Or you could do like some people and Elected Officials just play kick the can down the road and let your children worry about the National debt. The problem is if this debt problem is not addressed now I have doubts about this countries ability to fix the problem. I know sound bytes short messages with spin that way I might get more Recs. I'm not about the Recs just letting you know how I see things. Oh and this does not mean the market will go up or down but you knew that right. Please look at some of my older post.  [more]



The Economy How I See Things Could I Be Wrong and The Reason ForJapan's Electric Problems

July 19, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: QQQ , SPY , DIA

Well Japan is being very slow getting it power generation back on line or any new sources up and running. Some of you are wondering why they are having trouble with their power supply. Well best I can explain it is they use two different frequencies for AC 50 and 60 Hz. All electricity east of the Fujigawa River in Shizuoka Prefecture and the Itoigawa River in Niigata Prefecture is 50 Hz, while that to the west is 60 Hz. Here is a link to an article explaining the problem.
Japan's incompatible power grids By ALICE GORDENKER

So things are going to be even slower for them since they are unable to connect on electric grid to the other. Not to mention the problem with radiation-tainted food products and Cesium levels exceeding the legal limit in some of their beef. The good news is they have stabilized the Nuclear power plant.   [more]



Is the Economic Sky Falling, Follow Up

June 13, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: QQQ , SPY , DIA

With Gas prices falling when they get back to about three dollar level. It just
might keep the U.S.A. growth from going stagnate. This will take about two
quarters of low gas prices before the full effect is seen. However the consumer
will be reluctant to go back to the old level of spending. They will be expecting another spike
in oil and gas prices whether they go up or not.The most affected being on retail
big ticket (Auto gas guzzlers,some electronics,etc) lower income buyer and should stay that way until gas prices go back down. Some of the smaller and larger U.S. companies that export will benefit from
the lower dollar and should help. People looking for the housing market to rebound and give the U.S. the growth needed to shrink the unemployment rate. I think it will be a quite a while before we can rely on any help from the housing market. At best we will get very slow economic growth (not counting housing)only if gas prices come down and stay down. 


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