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Alwaysgolong (< 20)

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binve made me do it.. An unconventional discussion about oil. FIXED!

June 02, 2009 – Comments (15)

 My life is so busy, I simply don’t have time to read very many blogs, posts,, or anything else for that matter. I try to read Tastylunch as much as I can -- I understand his language. Anyway I stumbled across a CAPS blogger that you all seem to know well and respect much. binve (97.80)   [more]

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binve made me do it.. An unconventional discussion about oil

June 02, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: COP , XIDEQ , APWR.DL

 My life is so busy, I simply don’t have time to read very many blogs, posts,, or anything else for that matter. I try to read Tastylunch as much as I can -- I understand his language. Anyway I stumbled across a CAPS blogger that you all seem to know well and respect much. binve (97.80)One dose of binve sharing his humble selfless wisdom is all it took to hook me solid.  Why I am still bearish right now: A look at Oil and the S&P 500  A most excellent blog by binve  Now I spend all my free time reading his previous posts and of course I welcome any fresh meat he may toss out on the porch for us as well. Thank you binve I’m still learning YOUR language, but you have given me more determination than ever to learn more about charts and TA. Again, thank you. During the course of this blog: Why I am still bearish right now: A look at Oil and the S&P 500 I tossed a couple cents worth of dissention in there -- didn't get my face chewed off -- that was super cool... Oil is one of my most favored topics of discussion, but more often than not, it turns into a mud slinger. I have no desire to participate in name calling or mudslinging, so I tend to toss a few cents and then bail. Some people hate oil so bad, they aren’t capable of talking rationally about it and I would rather smoke a good cigar than fight any day, so I do. Had a wonderful H-Upman Camaroon just yesterday. Cigar therapy is great. Try it. Next time you feel like slapping someone, have a good cigar instead. Let me know how that works for ya. Anyhoo, an invitation was made to start a general discussion about oil and what I think about it.tahoestock (73.30) wrote: Alwaysgolong....don't know if others will pick up this thread (though binve always responds) so I have a second thought - maybe start another thread related to oil (and/or energy in general) on your Caps blog.  I'll list you as a favorite and pass along a recommendation for others to check it out; then we can get a discussion going.  Just a thought.  Profitable trading in the meantime. I’m no binve, but I do have a few thought provoking ideas that we may kick around and maybe get something out of the discussion. This is educational, not political, or at least not ideological. We proved we could do this without insults in a discussion on Alternative energy last Nov. Renewable Fuels -- A MUST for a good economy? Why? In 25 comments -- "NeoCon" and "Insane" were only used once each! I'm not lying, go look for yourself. Burn an Ashton while you read.Anyway, most of you will probably disagree with me. Mine is not a conventional wisdom thought process. I am not well educated. All I have is experience, but I have a lot of it. I've worked in conventional energy for 30 years. I've worked worm corner, chunked a chain, froze to death in the derrick. I know a thing or two about drilling, down hole completion and production. I’ve operated heavy equipment; I've worked process, industrial fire, and commissioned new plant equipment. My latest adventure placed me in Saudi Arabia during an American election year. Getya somma that! The media sure can stir them little rascals up. I've also made some $$ investing in oil and driller stocks. All that being said, experience is all I have to offer, but offer it I will. PLEASE -- no raging ideological rants. I will get into a portion of the politics of oil, but in the end, I’m going somewhere else with it. It’s all about the money with me. I’m not sentimental about ANY industry. Ideology? I’ve conceded that I can’t change the world, so I focus on feeding my family and trying to stash a little back in the hope of retiring early. I couldn’t give a hoot about locksteps, drill baby drill,  neocons, or whatever else the fashionable words are this week.Bottom line: If we are going to invest our $$ in energy, we need to learn all we can about it. Energy is massive; fortunes have been made in energy. There is money YET TO BE MADE in energy. At the end of the day, this site is an investment site. We can learn from each other and MAKE MONEY! I’m a long term energy guy, so I want to KNOW what oil and alternatives are going to be doing 5, 10, 20 years from now. READ THIS TWICE-à I guess what I’m trying say is, a LOT of people lost their collective rears with alternatives last year. Institutions went belly up because of their lack of understanding of oil. The WHOLE WORLD THOUGHT -- oil would go to 200 bucks, never look back -- and alternatives would BOOM for years to come… It didn’t happen. Dumb old guys like me saw the disaster coming and no one believed us. Conventional wisdom dictated and BY GAWD, that was that! People didn’t just lose money, -- fortunes were lost, institutions and funds were liquidated -- because investors believed the conventional wisdom and propaganda, instead of reality. This had very little to do with the crash of everything else. Oil was coming down and alternatives were going to crash REGARDLESS of anything else. That’s what I would like to discuss. Have an open mind.. J Ok, now that some of you have burned yourselves alive rather than listen to me further -- Let’s go to work.Taking a deep breath -- I don't believe for a second that we are running out of oil. I don't believe we have "peaked". I don't believe we have tapped all of the cheap oil. (We’d need to define “Cheap Oil”) I don't believe we have to switch from oil to something else or the economy stalls forever. I don't believe alternative fuels are the "Answer" to job creation. I don’t believe a price spike in oil is the cause of recessions. What I DO believe is -- we as a society have been TRAINED to believe – that we have peaked, we are running out of oil, oil damages the economy, the environment and everything else,, blah blah blah.Let me start right there…I believe we as a society have been TRAINED to hate oil. I believe that high oil prices make for strange bedfellows. (Big oil, alternative energy, and the Doomsday lobby) I believe we are being fed a never ending line of BS from special interests on all sides, including big oil, alternative fuels lobby, the environmental lobby, the media at large, which also includes Bill O-Reilly; He’s a big oil hater too. Whether it be for profit or politics, they are all pursuing an end result or agenda. I DO believe alternative fuels are the future, but will develop in their own time as they are needed, as they are feasibly developed, and as technology takes them from “alternative” to mainstay. I believe the best driver for EVERYTHING is the market, not hope, fantasy, hype, doom, gloom, government or wishful thinking. Let me explain. We’ve been taught since we were kids that oil companies are evil and that they’re ALWAYS SCREWING US! We’ve had it hammered into our heads all our lives. So much so, that it feeds off of itself - and has, for so many years now -- that none of us can remember where or when it started. And it’s not just the price of gas that we hear about day in and day out. Pollution, smog, environmental damage, global warming, global cooling, droughts, floods, hurricanes starting with letters downstream of E, global disasters of all kinds are blamed on Oil. When you see a news story on TV about Oil, you almost always see that big smoke stack in the background with smoke ROLLING from it. The truth is, that looks like the stack from the CO boilers at our plant, that’s STEAM coming from that stack! It’s all part of the propaganda BS storm. We’re constantly being barraged with reports about the greed of oil companies. Well for Pete’s sake, I believe in God, Country and family -- but I’m GREEDY AS HELL! And I’ll just bet most of you are too… (In a good way of course) Greed can control your life, or you can control it. Or in the case of Oil, the Governments can control it, or try to. But what have they really done? I’ll tell you, they have used us and fostered our hatred of oil to satisfy their own greed and lust for power. It’s all part of the training. They train us to hate oil – they take from oil --- we support their actions -- WE pay more for gas. BAM! Works every time. I’m fairly certain that Global Warming is part of the training program too. Environmentalists LOVE high oil prices. That-ta -- making for strange bed-fellows thing I mentioned earlier?? Obviously Oil companies Love high oil prices too.It is amazing to me how well this training program has worked. Oil and Gas represents the biggest sector of our economy. We wouldn’t have an economy without big oil companies. Literally TRILLIONS of dollars flow through our economy and the WORLD’S economy as a direct result of fossil fuels. Oil has written more pay checks, BIGGER paychecks -- financed more industries, built more schools and funded more public works and services than any other sector anywhere. Can you imagine how many computers Exxon Mobile has purchased over the years? How many company vehicles Chevron has? Or how many tons of steel Conoco Phillips bought to build its two newest Cokers? Or how much more steel it takes to build rigs and ships dedicated to the oil industry? Can you imagine how many CELL phones an oil company pays for? Copy machines, HVACs, coffee pots, staples, paper clips. Consider the money they spend on everything from jet travel to plastic waste baskets! Oil saved our bacon in two world wars. Fossil fuels played a major role in building the world’s greatest infrastructure, the world’s greatest interstate highway system, the world’s greatest navigable waterway system. Oil has created more jobs and wealth than any other industry in the history of the world. Better standards of living. Better health care through chemical development. Better this and better that. More people are working for energy companies and energy contractors RIGHT NOW than any other industry. Big Oil is building bigger windmill farms than the wind power companies. My GAWD, you should see the wind farms that Shell is building down here. Big oil pumps a lot of $$ into our economy from all sides. Like em or not, it’s the truth.There’s a commercial where an old gentleman stands up from a table in a coffee shop and starts blathering about how OIL COMPANIES are saying “We can’t afford alternative energy.” And then goes into some more nonsense about alternative energy creating the jobs we need to get the economy going again --- it is pure 100% BS. Again, I’m NOT anti-alternative energy. I’m all for it. Bring it on. I own APWR and XIDE as we speak. But this guy is being dishonest pure and simple. Oil companies are spending TONS of money on alternative energy, and like I said more people work in the energy sector right now than any other sector. Our economy isn’t a mess because of a lack of alternative energy or an abundance of oil company profits. California leads the nation in Alternative energy, they have the most restrictive oil policies and regulation IN THE WORLD -- and look at the mess they’re in. I could go on and on. I hope by now you get my point. I’m NOT SAYING that Oil and Gas companies are clean and pure as the wind driven snow, perfect in every way. They’re not. There have been days when I wanted to strangle our CEO and a few more bad apples from other companies as well. They should have beaten Ken Lay with a bull whip laced in broken glass. What I AM saying is this; They aren’t BAD and EVIL like we’ve been trained to believe. There are GOOD things to say about Oil and Gas. We need to TRAIN ourselves to see FOR ourselves with BOTH eyes. Look at the big picture, the WHOLE picture. Otherwise, we will continue to let ourselves be scammed by our trainers -- AND continue to lose money betting on alternative fuel speculation that doesn’t come through for us.Moving on… I’m getting there.I wondered for years why oil companies don’t stand up for themselves, defend their own sector and the good they do. Yea, they have some commercials that portray them in a good light but when you have THAT MUCH money, you can buy almost anything. Can you imagine how many politicians Exxon Mobil’s 50 billion dollar profit could buy? Can you imagine the PR campaign they could pay for? Can you imagine the lobbyists they could hire to sway policy and lift bans and run the world like they are already accused of doing?And yet, they are still hated by all and they do very little about it… Why? Their work is being done for them by their enemies. If the world believes we are running out of oil,, what does that do for the price of oil over time? Keep it at a premium? Did it ever occur to us, that everything the haters of big oil do and say to damage big oil -- actually makes them bigger profits? If you’re an oil company CEO wouldn’t you be sitting in your big leather chair laughing your butt off at this notion of peak oil? Wouldn’t you be laughing all the way to the bank at the notion we are about to RUN OUT of oil? Wouldn’t it just wipe you out with laughter that we have drilling bans on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, parts of the GOM and ANWR? Can you imagine how LOW the price of oil would go -- and stay,, if we opened those areas up?... Can you imagine how low the price of oil would go if we made a serious effort to wean ourselves off of foreign oil? The LAST thing OPEC wants is for us to drill in OUR OWN backyard. They’ll pay for the lobbyists to keep the hate alive just to keep those areas off limits. Oil companies don’t care. Their ALREADY getting what THEY want. Nancy Pelosi loves for the price of oil to be HIGH, guess what? So do oil companies, Strange bed fellows wouldn’t ya say???If you want to see Hugo Chavez standing on the porch of the White House with is hat in his hand BEGGING to sell his oil, because he’s swimming in it? -- Lift a drilling ban – just one. Start a small drilling campaign at home and then listen close for the sandal clad feet of Arabs running around yanking at their pizza hut table cloths crying “Oh Dear Allah, make them stop, make them stop. Mr. Obama, we will make deal. Please no more drilling on your beautiful land”.Bear in mind, I’m not running around chanting “Drill Baby Drill”, I’m just offering something to chew on as it pertains to the PRICE of oil and the idea that I don’t believe we are running OUT of oil. Think about it.I don’t think the OIL COMPANIES THEMSELVES want the bans lifted any more than OPEC does. Oil Companies exploit our fear, they exploit the hate people have for them. They exploit the notion that we are running out of oil or that we have peaked. They exploit the idea that there’s no more “cheap oil” or cheap extraction. They exploit drilling bans! More on running out of oil and high extraction costs: Consider this. The plans for Shell’s “Troll” platform (Biggest one ever built) made their way to the drawing table when oil was what – twelve dollars a barrel? Ekofisk was built in the 60s, started sinking to critical levels in the early 90s and was faced with decommissioning. Again, when oil prices were bottomed out, in the middle of massive fear that the North sea oilfield was drying up -- Phillips Petroleum Co spent a ton of money jacking it up to get another 20-40 years out of it. THAT was 20 years ago and Ekofisk is still going strong. I’ve heard all my life how the Middle East is pumping oil so fast and at such volumes that Saudi Arabia will soon collapse into the void it’s created. Hasn’t happened… They are still finding new fields today and pumping the guts out of the old ones. I live in the middle of one of the shallowest oil fields in the world. We can hit pay dirt at 2000 feet in the “Red Cave” near Masterson Tx. A good rig with a good crew can punch one out in three days. It takes one day for surface pipe cement to dry. That’s 2 days drilling time. We can go from dirt work; to pay dirt -- putting oil in the tank; in two weeks. Some of those wells may pump well over 100 bls a day for the first six months. We’ve been drilling that field as long as I can remember. We’re still drilling it today… Austin Chalk field near Dilly TX: The oil is in columns. If you drill between the columns, you get a dry hole. Technology has taught us to drill diagonally and hit SEVERAL columns from the side, instead of trying to hit ONE from the top, making this a very useful and relatively young field. There are literally hundreds of fields that we have yet to tap. Cheap oil? What was cheap 20 – 30 years ago? How hard was it to drill the North Slope the first time we did? When Ekofisk was build in the 60s, it was considered an outrageous idea. It consisted of NINE interlocking platforms. If I’m not mistaken, they’ve added a few more in recent years. The Ekofisk Jack up was a joke in a morning meeting that took on a life of its own and soon became reality. Technology has made what was impossible 40 years ago, a science today. IMO, we should stop and think about what we’re saying when we decide we’ve tapped all the “Cheap Oil” there is. In a previous thread, a comment was made, “Today’s production is tomorrow’s limit.” Good comment, but I heard that same comment almost 40 years ago when Gasohol made its first debut. One more comment and I’ll shut up for a while: T-Boone Pickens – My neighbor down the road about 28 miles --- claims we only hold 3% of the world’s oil. PHOOEY! He knows better than that. That 3% represents wells drilled, completed, and tested for result. Give me a break. He’s another one with a great idea, trying to sell it with a super sized over coating of BS. I love his plan to promote CNG and wind. But he is only adding to the already worn out saturation of anti-oil propaganda with his lobby efforts to receive government assistance to build windmills on his ranch. A ranch, he no longer has water rights to –- he sold them. What else is a ranch with no water rights good for? --- And that’s ok, it’s his ranch. I just wish he would stop lying to us, and exploiting our fears of oil peak to make another billion before he cashes in.Listening to him is like buying a great car from a sorry salesman. I’d buy the car, but I can’t stand listening to him lie to me about it.OK, I’ll shut up and give everyone a chance to reply. Please keep it civil, I’m too old for bar fights.  [more]

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Lost as last year's Easter eggs..

December 12, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CHQ

Would someone with a better education than I, please look at this filing and verify that I am on the right page?  [more]

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Just for grins, Predictions for today?

December 03, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: END , GST

Two weeks ago we saw down, down, down day after day. Several of us including myself pedicted a "Suckers Rally" coming soon to a market near you. Last week we had three and a half days of just that. I figured on two, but not three and a half. Wow, I sold most of my holdings during the week and made out like a bandit. By Friday's close, I held only three positions.   [more]

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Renewable Fuels -- A MUST for a good economy? Why?

November 27, 2008 – Comments (25)

Before you pounce, let me say I am not the least bit interested in a Right VS Left mud fest. I wish to have a serious discusion on something I simply do not understand. Please leave politics aside, be respectful and clue me in on why renewable fuels are not just nessasary for a greener planet, but nessasary for a prosperous economy.  [more]

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