September 03, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MA
, V
The market saw a major change today. The eight dollar pull back in the price of oil looks to have at least set its price to trade between the $100 and $110 mark. This is only speculation as a new trading pattern has not established itself. If we were to listen to many of the energy experts, as with T. Boone Pickens, the $100 bottom is almost here. With that said, it should stimulate some growth in the US stock market as the dollar should strengthen somewhat and although there is a global slowdown, generally speaking US stocks should see upside going forward. It is even much more bearish for oil since this happened during hurricane season. [more]
July 21, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: DE
, CNH
Some times Wall Street gets ahead of itself, just like some times it doesnt. The current market looks as if the financials [more]
July 18, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AAPL
, MSFT
, GOOG
The US bear market has affected many companies, many in the financial sector. The average US consumer has seen their disposable income decreased substantially and they are unable to refinance their home to get some needed relief as the mortgage market has tightened. Inflation with respect to energy has really hurt the commuter as we have seen gas prices shoot through the roof and they have had no other option but to trade in their SUV and sqeeze their two kids and family dog into a Prius. All of this doesnt mean short everything, but I am seeing a change in the market that is somewhat confusing. C and MER came in with earnings and still had substantial write downs but not apocalyptic by any means. MSFT and GOOG didnt do as well as many thought but that was on the heals of IBM having another good quarter. The sell off in the Nasdaq today seems to be a little too much as I do not believe that things are as bad as many think. We are just starting to see the tapering off of oil prices and it is looking as a downward trend could continue for some time. With all of the commotion, many have forgotten some of the best companies that have consistantly outperformed the market. My holding in POT and MON are starting to look good from an earnings standpoint, but today I will be taking a position ahead of AAPL's earnings. [more]
July 14, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: WB
I have heard many opinions about the state of the financials in the United States. The arguments are that either these stocks are at or close to a bottom. I dont believe we are their yet. I know there are plenty of opinions that believe that this is a housing crisis. I think the housing market is bad, but believe the leverage that financials had on subprime lending is going to be even worse. In some instances, banks are writing off more than they have earned in their entire history of doing business. The biggest problem is that forclosures look to at least be holding steady and maybe even increasing. There is very little that the Fed or Government can really do about it either. Inflation is decreasing our ability to cut rates more. They are still loaning to banks and in the case of IndyMac, they are bailing. They are saying there will be no more bail outs, but I believe that they will. More importantly, some of these companies could get purchased like Countrywide and this could cause stock prices to move higher, but if not they will continue to decrease or remove their dividends and issue stock, diluting the value of their companies. For those who think that this is a good entry point, remember LEH and my call on theupdown.com to short, which is now down 52% in the last 30 days. [more]
July 13, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: BAC
When BAC announced that they were going to buy Countrywide, I wasnt so worried about how, but why. The massive decline in [more]
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