Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 30th of August 2010. This week there's Q2 GDP results from Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and the EU. And of course given that this week brings the start of September we've got PMI figures out of China, the US, and a range of other countries. The other notables will be S&P/Case-Shiller house prices, US consumer confidence, Canada and Aussie current accounts, an ECB rate non-decision and of course US nonfarm payrolls. [more]
This week we take a look at GDP stats from the robust German economy, and the less than robust US economy. Then we look closer at the US situation; reviewing the existing home sales data, and consumer sentiment data. We then wrap up with a review of the July trade figures from Japan.
Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs28aug.html [more]
Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 23rd of August 2010. This week there's Q2 GDP results from 3 key developed economies; Germany, UK, and the US. On the US, there's also new home/existing home sales, the house price index, and both ABC and University of Michigan consumer sentiment indexes. Elsewhere, Japan will be releasing 3 key stats; exports, CPI, and employment figures. And of course another key feature of this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week; an exclusive monetary policy festival in the US. [more]
This week we look at the Q2 GDP results for Japan and Taiwan; getting a gauge on how these two key Asian economies are tracking in their recoveries. Then onto the US where we look first at the industrial production results, which are a tad paradoxical, and then at the PPI stats which may be pointing to margin compression. Then we wrap-up with a view on Euro zone inflation.
1. Japan GDP
Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.4% (basically flat), well below median forecasts for about 2.3%, and Q1 revised rate of 4.4%. The Japanese economy was also reported as dropping behind China to the world's 3rd largest economy (which is pretty much just a technicality in confirming a foregone conclusion). The Japanese economy was held back by slowing export growth and subdued consumption, as phase 2 of the recovery sets in (i.e. the muddle ages). So Japan will keep muddling on, the key sensitivities for Japan continue to be international trade (and therefore the currency), and on a related note; the resilience of the Chinese economy.
Before diving into the analysis, a theme occurred to me the other day; more and more the economic data from the US is looking confused. There are some parts of the economy that are showing some relatively promising signs e.g. manufacturing, but then there are other parts (e.g. consumers, housing, etc) which say - "you know, this recovery... it's not that great, things are still hard!" And thus we are at the muddle ages of the post-great-recession recovery. And so, I was just looking at the US total bank assets statistics, and there were a few noteworthy standouts in the data: [more]
Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 16th of August 2010. This week the key economic events start with Japan on Monday releasing its Q2 GDP stats, also on Monday is China with its foreign direct investment figures, and the CB leading index. Throughout the week there will be a few inflation metrics out; EU CPI, UK CPI, US PPI and capacity utilisation, NZ PPI, and Canada CPI. There's also monetary policy meeting minutes due from the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia; speaking of which, there's also the Australian elections at the end of the week. [more]
This week we review some of the recent data out of China; first up is a look at the recent slowing in industrial production, followed by signs of slowing in consumer spending. Then we look at the inflation results, which show a potentially short term pick up in inflation. Finally we examine the growth of the money supply and growth in lending; where both measures are slowing due to recent policy moves to install a managed slowdown to counter potential overheating and asset bubbles.
1. Industrial Production
China recorded industrial production year on year growth in July of 13.4%, down from 13.7% in June, and above consensus 13.2%. The movement broadly lines up with the PMI, which tracked downward for the July reading, and saw the HSBC PMI drop below 50 for the first time this year, indicating a possible period of easing of industrial production. But while the short term trend may be down, it is still growing at a strong rate, and if you think about the strength in exports, the recent slow down may start to look increasingly temporary, or on the contrary the slowing of industrial production could end up flowing into lower exports. In thinking about the drivers of industrial production, the next chart may be of interest... [more]
Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 9th of August 2010. This week China takes the spotlight with its monthly data dump; there's new loans, money supply, trade balance, CPI, fixed asset investment, industrial production, PPI, and retail sales. Then on the monetary policy front there's Japan, and the US who both meet to review policy this week. The EU is set to announce its second quarter GDP results this week, and from the US will be CPI, UoM & ABC confidence numbers, and the trade balance. Elsewhere there's employment numbers from Australia, consumer confidence from Japan, and house prices in New Zealand. [more]
This week we look at the faltering PMI stats from China, and a relatively stable but mixed PMI result from the US for July. We then review the monetary policy decisions this week from the RBA, BoE, and ECB, then we analyze the employment reports from the US and New Zealand.
1. China PMI
The Chinese PMI indexes both fell in the July reading, with the official CFLP index falling to 51.2 from 52.1, and the HSBC index dipping below 50 for the first time since March 2009, at 49.4 vs 50.4 in June. The PMI numbers are showing an easing of industrial activity in China, but the numbers are still above the low point reached late 2008 to early 2009. The July industrial production result is likely to come in lower again next week when the monthly data release comes out (which also includes CPI, fixed asset investment, PPI, and retail sales). The biggest question around the PMI result is whether or not it's temporary; is it a seasonal movement? is it the result of artificial tightening moves? or is it a more fundamentally driven decline? Next week will surely bring extra pieces to the puzzle.
Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 2nd of August 2010. This week there's US ISM PMI for July, following China's weekend release of their PMI numbers. On the monetary policy front, there's the RBA, BoE, and ECB all meeting this week to review policy settings. It's also a big employment numbers week, with the US (nonfarm payrolls), Canada, and New Zealand releasing their recent employment statistics. [more]