December 2008
December 24, 2008 –
We have no way of knowing, but I am being VERY cautious going forward. From an earnings perspective, those that have been right see the S&P dropping to 600. [more]
December 17, 2008 –
[more]
December 16, 2008 –
We've seen this story before. Banks LOATHE to lend out money when the margins are this small. It was this loathing from the last free money go around that led to all the leveraging in the first place. (unintended consequences anyone?) [more]
December 16, 2008 –
Japan's market is hwere it was 20 years ago. Making money free hinders lenders from lending because there is return free risk. [more]
December 14, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: CSCO
, LXK
, NICE
Barrons is pointing out continued trouble in tech,but noting some stronger and weaker picks within the sector. Sprcifically, some of the picks noted going long AAPL, CSCO, and NICE, and selling LXK, SFLY, and FRP. [more]
December 13, 2008 –
Many of you know I work for a major bank. I'd like to post for dicsussion what I am seeing that I don't think has made the radar of the market, because its now yet showing in the stats. A number of people that still show strong credit bureau scores that are negatively cash flowing and choked with debt and unsellable assetts. I posted about it before....but I'm going to add some case studies, for all to consider what the financial and social ramifications are for our future and the markets. I think they are profound. [more]
December 12, 2008 –
Yes, the selling in the last year has been heavy, but we have had worse bear markets. On open, we gapped down and the buyers came back quickly, but it seems to be very light volume. Every time we drop to 8300, we bounce back. My concern, and why I'm light on either side, is that when we fall below (we did once), we may fall hard. The market shrugged off a lot of bad news. Bulls say that means it's priced in. Bears say sooner or later we will run out of buyers. [more]
December 10, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AZO
Market logic: People will fix up their old cars. BUT This stock is up 42% since Nov 20th.
Your paying up 40% for a company with virtually no revenue growth, a declining return on equity, negative cf, inventory growing faster than comps and a company that is borrowing to buy back stock. [more]
December 03, 2008 –
Months ago I wrote a blog called "trouble ahead, a bankers perspective". In it I laid out the history of the housing boom, and how the usage of the artificial assett values created "wealth" out of thin air, which prompted credit consumption, personal consumotion, and thus artifically inflated stock prices and growth. [more]
December 03, 2008 –
When I go long, they screw up TARPS and things, and the market falls underneath me. When I go short, they create money out of thin are and the market rallies in my absence. [more]
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