Right now all of my work in Cisco (CSCO) argues very strongly that the April 19 low at 16.52 ended its bear market phase from its April 30 high at 27.74. If accurate, this means that the strength off of 16.52 either represents the start of a powerful counter-trend recovery rally (that projects to 18.20/50 next) or the start of a new bull phase that should propel CSCO well beyond 18.20/50.
Chartwork at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/4/2011/29/ [more]
We could make the case that today Apple (AAPL) broke down from a 4-month top formation when it sliced beneath 328.00-326.00 support (now resistance). As long as AAPL continues to consolidate below 326-328, the bears will remain in directional control. [more]
After ending its upleg from a major corrective low at 46.20 (Mar 10) to its 58.75 high (Apr 8), Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) has relinquished 50-55% of its prior upleg gains, which is the area to look to re-establish long positions within a larger, still-intact bull trend. [more]
This morning's pre-open down-gap in Apple (AAPL) and spike to 327.49 so far has turned out to be the low for the larger downleg off of the Mar 28 high at 354.34. The spike low, followed by what is shaping up to be a significant upside reversal so far today, also can be considered another test of critical three-month support at 326.50/00 from the day that Steve Jobs announced he was taking a leave of absence. [more]
Best Buy (BBY) got a positive mention today by research firm Cleveland Research, whose analyst sees estimates above consensus along with a possible upside surprise because of a stabilization of sales. With that and with analyst and management meetings scheduled for April 14th and April 25th and 26th, the naysayers about BBY might have to reevaluate the fundamentals in the upcoming days. [more]
The most recent downleg in the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) from 31.93 to 25.73 looks like a completed bearish structure. The fact that prices reversed sharply to the upside today after first hitting a new low suggests strongly that the DUG hit downside exhaustion at under 25.80 earlier today.
For the time being, DUG is in the midst of a run-of-the-mill recovery rally. That said, the energy sector is so overbought and vulnerable to a period of retrenchment that this run-of-the-mill recovery rally (in the inverse DUG) could easily and quickly morph into a powerful countertrend rout, as holders of long energy positions take some of their very substantial profits.
In terms of the DUG, my initial upside target zone is 27.60-28.00.
Chartwork at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/4/2011/6/ [more]