I can't remember or not if I've ever bought Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) before (as a stock), but considering my incredible passion for all things burritos, this particular long position that I just got in on is particularly exciting for me. In fact, if the stock can rebound and move higher, I'd rather my brokerage pay out the profits in burritos rather than actual money - just a personal choice. [more]
Just one new trade for me this morning. I came into the day with WNR and I'm still holding it (though wish I wasn't stopped out of two longs yesterday). Under Armour has a great looking chart, and one that I think coudl continue to push higher in the days ahead off of the triple bottom bounce on critical support. [more]
Technical Outlook (SPX): [more]
Silver is no doubt a fairly speculative trade, but because I'm trading it with a tight stop-loss that makes sense (i.e. below a critical support level) I'm willing to take a stab at this trade with a stop-loss at $25.40. [more]
Pre-market Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): [more]
I've already jumped in Mosaic (MOS) this morning as a short, but there are plenty of opportunities out there. Below I've posted 4 more stocks both long and short that offer some excellent trading opportunties. [more]
Once the SPX made session lows, bounced, and then only sold off again to make fresh session lows, I decided to short Mosaic (MOS) which I had been eye-ballin' early on. What appeals to me the most here is the inability to break through the 200-day moving average on five seperate occasions over the past year as well as the continuous series of lower-highs and lower-lows. [more]
Pre-market Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): [more]
I'm now up to three long positions and just two short positions, though, even as soon as tomorrow, I could see me flipping to the short side more aggressively. I'm essentially watching the daily chart, and looking for a true breakdown below 1306. We get that, and I think this market will indeed see additional downside and a resumption of the weakness that started off of the 4/2/12 highs. [more]
I know it might seem crazy on the surface to jump in a long position early on, but typically those significant gap downs can be awfully difficult for the markets to hold on to. I've been eye-balling Authentec (AUTH) for a while now, and I love the chart setup and the risk/reward. Assuming that the gap-down eventually gets a bounce like it typically does, I should be sitting in a good position to benefit from any afternoon strength. [more]
Pre-market Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): [more]
After a couple solid weeks in the market, it was easy to put the market weakness that proceeded it behind us and believe that greener pastures lied ahead. But it only took one day to re-instill that fear into the markets. With Thursday's sell-off, we got a healthy reminder just how far and fast this market could sell-off when it took a liking to it. On the daily chart of the SPX we have a clear uptrend that is in place, and unless we break below 1306, I'm holding that bias. On the weekly chart below, you'll see that we have a bearish-looking flag that is forming and we need to really see a healthy bounce to put to rest that developing chart pattern. [more]
I haven't been actively trading in the market today, mainly because the market is really hard to predict with the massive sell-off yesterday whether we just bounce right back up, or we go further south from here. [more]
Pretty nice easy looking chart here. Oil has declined big time lately and has since neared a strong base/support level. This base formed from 2009-2010 as Oil chopped between $70 and $80. Once it broke out Oil moved higher and each time it neared these levels there was a bounce. The lines you see are regression lines with the purple on a regression from the peaks in 2008 and the red is from the lowers in 2009. You can see oil should be back up near those levels but has dipped well below them. [more]
Pre-market Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
I posted my PCYC resounding success story which I made 16% off of it, but what kind of blogger would I be if I completely ignored those nasty trades, that despite discipline, focus, and strong setups, did nothing to better themselves after I got in them (yup - losing trades comes with the territory). [more]
Pharmacyclic (PCYC) has been a great stock for me the past week. When I bought this stock back on the 14th I didn't have some special insight that said "this stock is going to go up over 15%... I didn't. Instead there was an opportunity there, and despite wanting to book gains and close it out at various points when it was up 5% 8% and 10%, I instead chose to just tighten my stop. [more]
Pre-market Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
I jumped in Accretive Health (AH). Had the stock symbol been "AHHH" I would have been much more suspicious of it. Nonetheless, I got in at $12.50 with stop loss at $11.94 and a target which is really as high as it will take me. Because there is a huge air pocket at 12.50 up till $16.50, but honestly I don't like going into a stock with those knds of lofty expectations. If it goes that high... great, but I don't plan on it. So I just took the difference of my entry and $16.50 and came up with $14.50 (real scientific, eh?). [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), FOMC Meeting ANnouncement (12:30pm), FOMC Forecasts (2pm), Chairman Press Conference (2:15pm) [more]
I’ll sleep when I’m dead has always been my saying to live by (one of the many). I was always the late to bed and early to rise type of guy. Unfortunately a good night of sleep and trading go hand in hand. Trading is a profession that will attack you on all levels, and if you are not prepared you will get eaten alive!
Last night I did my normal midnight sleep and up at 6:30am. When I woke up I knew I hadn’t had a good sleep, knew I had been tossing and turning, and now I was tired from it. Well one tired day won’t kill you, but then I took it a step further.
I sat down at my computer, did my routine, waited for the market to open, and began to trade. I had all my setups prepared and ready to take on the trades. Morning bell rang and I started to move into some trades, 3 to be exact. So good so far.. [more]
I'm probably more excited about my pick up in Church & Dwight this morning than any other stock I've bought in quite some time. In fact if it goes well... and that's a big if in the market these days, I wouldn't mind holding on to this stock for an extended period of time - say weeks or months. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): FOMC Meeting Begins, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Housing Starts (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am) [more]
The Wedge: Its been a while! The market rallied since its lows at 128 forming an ascending wedge pattern this is typically a bearish pattern. It is not the cleanest wedge but the tight upwards price action off the lows creates one side of it. In order for the wedge pattern to become bearish it would have to break to the downside and as of now it has not. In fact there seems to be more room to run on the wedge. [more]
I doubt I'll add any additional long positions (at this point I have 6 swing-trades) but thanks to @TheTradingWife in our chat-room, she spotted Amazon.com (AMZN) and I couldn't help but take a stab at it myself. That is the benefit of trading with fellow traders because you able to feed off of each other's ideas and benefit from the groups research. [more]
If you joined us for the Sunday Night Kick-Off last night, you'll know that I pointed out Bancorpsouth (BXS) as a solid long opportunity. On any weakness today I was going to buy it, and it gave me just enough to pull the trigger this morning. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Housing Market Index (10am) [more]
We've got the Greek elections upon us, and with it their fate in terms of participation in the euro. I have about 4 long positions in my portfolio and that's all. I didn't want to get too hot and heavy with the market on Friday, but I didn't want to completely neglect it either, because the chart on the S&P looks to be in the early stages of a new uptrend. There really isn't any way to know what's going to happen in Greece nor the manner in which the market will respond. So I continue, as I always do and trade off of the charts that I have. [more]
By far one of my best screens in determining who is buying what on the street! What you will find are those stocks that, among other variables that I use, 1) Gaining an increased amount of coverage by brokerage firms and analysts, and 2) Being upgraded on a regular basis. This is a good screen to show you where the smart money is putting their capital to work at, without you having to actually ask them. [more]
Two Trades I went long in today: [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Industrial Production (9:15am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am) [more]
...and before I could finish this post I am OUT - at $16.51 [more]
Here's my latest trade: Pharmacyclics Inc (PCYC) which is breaking out nicely after a short-term bull flag. I'm looking for continuation on this incredible run the stock has been on. It's imprtant to give stocks like this plenty of room to roam, because often times there is a lot of emotions driving the stock, so I'm willing to give a little more wiggle room on the stop itself. [more]
The VIX (fear gauge) and SPX (S&P 500) correlation is a simple one. If the market is down and the VIX is also down this is a good bullish sign. If the market is up and the VIX is up, like we saw yesterday, this is a good bearish sign.
The VIX should be watched by all traders. You do not have to watch it during the day but at least take a glance of it at night when you are doing your charting. If you would have done that over the last couple of days you would have known we are bearish in this market.
Let’s take a look at the charts. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Current Account (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am) [more]
There are plenty of reasons not to short Apple (AAPL) no matter how good the chart is. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Business Inventories (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am) [more]
Despite yesterday's extreme sell-off (especially considering how much we had been up in overnight futures) the SharePlannerReversal Indicator below is finally showing signs of bottoming out and we actually got a bullish green/red crossover, with some good signs coming from the RSI, as well as a break of the downward trend on the daily chart (bullish wedge). So while, I still hold short positions primarily in the portfolio, I'll start closing them out as it becomes more likely we are going to bounce - and that happens when we break above 1335 on the S&P which would thereby create a higher-high on the S&P chart. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury Budget (2pm) [more]
Disappointing day for bulls today as what looked like would be a soaring open when futures opened Sunday night on news that Spain was seeking a bailout, quickly vanished as the US market open came about. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): None [more]
One of my favorite stocks for years now has been McDonalds (MCD). Like their food or not, the company knows how to sell a hamburger. As for me, I consider myself to be a fast food connoisseur and I can tell you, after years of experience at consuming countless hamburgers at fast food joints ranging from the Piggly-Wiggly to some of the most well-known 5-star fast food establishments around, the Burger Kings (BK) and Wendy's (WEN) of this world are trying everything in its power to stay releant with MCD, and all they do is throw themselves deeper into the abyss of irrelavency. In essence, you can't compete with McDonalds burger-for-burger - you just won't win. Instead you take the playbook of what Target (TAR) did to increase its sales, by specifically moving itself away from competing directly with Wal-Mart (WMT) and their pricing power. [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): International Trade (8:30am), Wholesale Trade (10am) [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Ben Bernanke Speaks (10am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Consumer Credit (3pm) [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Beige Book (2pm), Treasury STRIPS (3pm) [more]
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am) [more]
In my market analysis video from last night I laid out a bullish case with us making new lows and then pushing higher throughout the day. We pretty much saw that happen when the market went down almost 1%, reverse, and finish in the green.
So I had my plan for the market.....check!
Yet when I came out swinging today I was coming up with nothing. I was both long and short various positions and ended up with losses across the board. The chop on the intraday level killed my trading today.
I did take my own advice and kept my positions small and thus my risk small so the portfolio will continue to live another day. Next time the market is choppy have to remember to take profits QUICKER!!!!
This market has not been easy to trade. A lot of intraday chop and volatile swings make it difficult to all trades. The traders doing the best right now are day traders and scalpers which can stay nimble and pick apart this market. [more]
I can go either way, from here - the market put together a nice bounce after trending for much of the day lower. That isn't all that surprising. We're probably due for some upside, since the whole market is sitting at major extremes. Just when that happens is the hard part to predict. I'm not going to hold anything overnight, instead, I'm going to keep the list below handy and add some of them tomorrow, if the opportunity presents itself. [more]
If you've followed SharePlanner for a while now, you'll know that I like to call upon the T2108 indicator that determines the percentage (%) of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average. In that indicator, it helps to find divergences, and movement extremes in the broader markets. [more]
To date, the market is still rearing is ugly head. There is no doubt about it though that the SPRI is hitting some serious extremes. One other indicator that I like to take a look at is the T2108 which shows the percentage of stocks trading above their 40 day moving average. At this point, 18% of stocks are doing such, which is right at the number printed back in October when the market started to finally put in a bottom. [more]