July 2012
July 31, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: BAC
, KKD
, TSLA
I thought I'd share with everyone my watch-lists. Here you get a current snap-shot of what it looks like right now, and what I'm looking to go long/short in as well. Some of those stocks listed, if they are breaking out already, I'm looking for a quick pullback to that breakout level and with the short list, you'll notice that there is a number of them rising back into heavy resistance, and others that are on the verge of a solid breakdown. [more]
July 31, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AMZN
, CRI
Very choppy day today and I don't expect to see much different as we head into the FOMC Statement tomorrow. For now, here are two great long and short setups that provide ideal risk/reward opportunities. [more]
July 31, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 30, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AAPL
, AMZN
, KO
As You know, recently the market has been acting a bit more sluggish, prone to more weakness, and my own personal indicators (which I do publish on the site) projecting a new wave of weakness too. I'm more concerned than I have been of late to make sure that I'm not over extended to the long side and that any position that I do take on, shows an ability to buck the market trend should it move lower. [more]
July 30, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: BRO
Now I've got 3 longs and 3 shorts. While that may change before the close of the day, depending on what the market does, I'm currently at a point where I'm comfortable with the balance in the portfolio. [more]
July 30, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: FB
, SWHC
I know I typically do a long & short setup but today, I'm feeling a little more bearish than usual, and so I focused my efforts on finding some short setups. Over the weekend the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator also went bearish, which has weighed heavily on my thinking as well. [more]
July 30, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, IWM
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 29, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, DIA
The reversal signal we had been looking for the past couple of weeks, finally came to fruition and as you'll note below we've got a clear bearish reversal, that is also confirmed by the RSI as well. Price action shows a convincing bearish wedge the S&P continues to trade in, but has not broken down and out of it yet. Heading into next week, I would be careful about adding many new long positions, trust the stops on the existing ones, and if the market shows a strong hand to the downside, it's best to believe it. [more]
July 27, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: WTW
, MWV
, HES
Pretty good day so far - I went ahead and covered my short position in Meadwestvaco (MWV) at $28.72 from $28.50 for a 0.8% loss. That's okay though, because I have long positions in HES, MDT, and now in Weight Watchers (WTW). I jumped in at $51.10, and have largely benefited off of the sudden intraday spike in the SPX this afternoon. This will be a swing trade as well, and now that we are putting in a higher-high in the market in less than two days after breaking the previous uptrend, I think we are looking more bullish heading into next week. [more]
July 27, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AAPL
, MDT
, AUTH
Nothing better than waking up to the news that the stock you swing-traded just a few days ago (and did hold overnight mind you) was bought out by Apple (AAPL) at a 60% premium from your entry price. And here I was satisfied with the 3% gain that it yielded. It happens. No sense in staring up a dead horse's rump. [more]
July 27, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 26, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: GNC
I guess this guy showed up in his chiseled-out body to give the GNC earnings report this morning, because after the initial spike higher, this thing has dropped hard and fast. [more]
July 26, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern): [more]
July 25, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AMTD
Here begins my three part series on avoiding the pre-mature stop-out on your trading. With this series, my plan is to provide you with a couple of different ways of avoiding being stopped out when it probably shouldn't have happened. But because the market makers and institutions could see your stop-orders, they became resolved to trigger these orders. Leaving you watching from the sidelines when the stock bounces right back. [more]
July 25, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: HES
, OEH
I'm impressed the market hasn't sold off today, and is still fighting for positive gains on the day, which would be the first time since last week that's happened. Below I've posted the Long & Short Lazy Trades for today. If this market can put in a legitimate bounce, HES sets up for a nice gainer. I may end up adding HES to the portfolio before the end of the day, to balance out my one other short position that I currently hold. [more]
July 25, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MWV
, GS
, AMTD
I've been somewhat hesitant to pull the trigger on anything, particularly long, once I saw the S&P give up those early morning gains like it was nothing. But not only that, but the fact that since doing so, we just continue to drift lower with small bounces in between. [more]
July 25, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern): [more]
July 24, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: GS
, SYNC
Only one new trade for me today, and it happens to be in the stock being featured in today's Lazy Trade Long.. Nonetheless, the market looks like it is in a state of perpetual selling, which isn't at all that uncommon when we gap up, and follow it with an immediate sell-off. [more]
July 24, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern): [more]
July 23, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AUTH
, IBM
Gap downs are a beast for the bears to hold together - especially those that go bonkers in the form of -20 points or more on the S&P. I actually added today's lazy long trade Authentec (AUTH) right before posting this at $5.02. It's one of the better setups that I've seen out there today is currently trading where I recently got in at. But I have to credit @brysenp for the find. [more]
July 23, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AMTD
, NFLX
, AGU
Rough day for the bulls (understatement) and so far it has managed to bounce off of those early morning lows and forming sort of a cup and handle pattern on the 5min SPX chart. [more]
July 23, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 22, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
For the most part, and since the June lows were put in, I would say about 90% of all my trades have been to the long side. But after reflecting, and pouring over some charts, I gotta say, that the climate for trading is looking more bearish than it has since we put in those June bottoms. [more]
July 20, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
This past week, I've spent writing about common market conditions and how they behave early on and what you can expect for the remainder of the day. I've received great feedback from readers on this series and for the most part, I think everyone understood what I was trying to accomplish with this series and that's mainly to provided you with a 'navigational' beacon that helps you to dissect the charts of the market, and have a fairly decent idea of what to expect, rather than sitting their hoping it will do what you want it to. [more]
July 20, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPLK
, SONC
First-off, I just want to express my condolences to the families affected by last nights shooting in Aurora, Colorado. My prayers are with you all, and still, even in the midst of tragedy, never forget that the unseen hand of God is still at work. [more]
July 20, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, DIA
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 19, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
If you've missed my previous posts this week on predicting Market Action from the 1st hour of trading, I'd read these the first three posts as well with this one. [more]
July 19, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AMP
, DTV
, CA
By just looking at price and volume on the charts below, you won't see an obvious short setups, in fact all of them are trading above their 50-day moving average, and most are in a nice uptrend. But using indicators like the RSI, Average True Range (ATR) and Time Segmented Volume, there's no doubt a number of bearish divergences are coming about, and once we get that breakdown, these stocks should cause the longs to surprisingly and suddenly run for the exits in these names. [more]
July 19, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: BRO
, FB
, MLNX
Typically when a stock goes up after I get stopped out for a loss, or a small gain, I'm not one to care or give it much though. It happens, and will always happen. But geesh, sometimes it's just hard to ignore. Take Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) for example. I bought into this stock after it broke out and pulled back to its breakout point three days ago. All is good at this point, but over the next two days it just drops, and takes me out for a 3.5% loss. That's not what bothers me though, because I expect to be stopped out on a number of trades throughout the year. Yesterday though, now that I was out of the trade, it goes up 7% - ok whatever, no worries, but today it is up 41%... yes 41% - the best trader in the world (whoever that happens to be) can't help but be bothered by that. [more]
July 19, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, IWM
, DIA
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 18, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
[more]
July 18, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MDT
One new trade so far for me today - six longs that I'm holding in my portfolio at this point. However, we are getting some resistance off of the descending trend-line from 4/3 that is cuasing me a bit of concern. I figure this though, if we can push and close above 1374, I'll be much more comfortable in my long positions. [more]
July 18, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MAS
, HD
I'm quite certain that Masco (MAS) was trying to run before I could post this chart below. Don't chase it - wait for it to drop back down to $14.26 before considering a long position. As for Home Depot (HD), I was actually long in it up until last week, and got out for a flat trade. But since then, it has setup nicely for a short trade. [more]
July 18, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, IWM
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 17, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, DIA
Let's get started on Part 2 of How to Predict Market Action From the 1st Hour of Trading by discussing the Heavy Market Gap-Ups. [more]
July 17, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: PCLN
, NFLX
, CIE
Thanks to the discovery by @thetradingwife, I ended up taking a long position in Priceline (PCLN) and now I'm forever cursed the rest of the day with the "Price.Line.Neg-o-ti-a-tor!" theme song. [more]
July 17, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SONC
, URBN
Could it be? Yes, I considering a comeback of the old school long and short setup that I'd give out daily regardless of the conditions of the market. I've received a number of requests over recent weeks from long-term readers to resurrect this feature, and in attempt to be a blogger/trader of the people, I'll shake the rust off of this old feature and give it a go-around. [more]
July 17, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 16, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MLNX
, NFLX
, CMG
I honestly should have checked the earnings calendar before buying this stock, but they don't report until after the bell on Wednesday, and since this is a high beta-stock, I'd expect it to move before then. But no way, will I hold through earnings. [more]
July 16, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Once the market opens each day, it can be rather difficult to surmise which direction it will go by the end of the day. For some it seems like a a random walk in the park. But for me, as a trader, there have been countless observations that I've made from over the years about what is seen in the early morning action and what it means for the rest of the day. [more]
July 16, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: KKD
Right before I went long on Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, I happened to see the "Hot Doughnuts Now!" sign lit up like Christmas. Secondly, my appetite was begging for doughnuts, and lastly, the market always give good trades on one's birthday. Need I say more...? In fact I do - I need to order me one of these KKD sandwiches (could this be the first time Heaven has ever been served on a plate?). [more]
July 16, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern): [more]
July 15, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
When the market had to bounce last week (that being Friday), it did and it kept the uptrend from the June lows in place. However, when you look at the weekly chart, you have some definite concerns - a) the fact that we remain overbought on the weekly, b) coupled with price pattern on the SPX that shows a bearish wedge forming, and finally c) the SPRI is hitting extremes and ripe for a reversal. [more]
July 13, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: CIE
Moments before this post I jumped in Cobalt International Energy (CIE) at $24.22. One of the plays in this current market that has done exceedingly well for me have been the breakouts from support, and then waiting for a few days to even a week perhaps for it to pull back to that original breakout/support level. In fact, in the case of CIE, you could say that the stock 'bull-flagged' its way back to support which is pretty impressive and not nearly as common as the other setup type I just described. [more]
July 13, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern): [more]
July 12, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: TPC
, AGU
, NFLX
I posted the chart earlier in our chat-room real-time as I took the trade, and mentioned it in the 7 Stocks Flying Under The Radar post from this morning as well before taking this trade, but I have to say, that Tutor Perini (TPC) is looking like a stud so far. I have no clue as to what they do, besides being in heavy construction as the only thing I'm concerned with is that it holds the support from the previous breakout that it is testing today, and that I can get out at or around $13.32. [more]
July 12, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: TPC
, KEP
, SKYW
Here's a list of setups that I took from a screen of mine that is essentially looking for companies trading at half of their book value, but technically showing some strength of late. The only stock on the screen that I wasn't too sure about but included it anyway for posterity, was Korea Electric Power (KEP), and it looks like it could be ready for a bounce testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. [more]
July 11, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AGU
I've long been a fan of trading on multiple time-frames with daily being my primary chart-of-choice. As a swing-trader, I rely heavily on other time frames like the 30-minute for determining my entry intraday and then the weekly to see if there are any longer-term problems that are coming to the surface that the daily doesn't clearly show. [more]
July 11, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, DIA
, QQQ
Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern): [more]
July 10, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: ACAT
, CLMS
, BC
Over the past four trading sessions, the market has no doubt looked weak. Prior to what is at this point, a four-day pullback, the markets were sitting at extremes and begging for a pullback. Now that we've got it, it's important to see the manner in which it is pulling back and what we are seeing are the dip buyers on each day of trading buying up the market off of its lows, and wiping away much of the earlier day's bearishness. In fact if you look at the SPY chart, there are 3 consecutive doji candles. [more]
July 10, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern): [more]
July 09, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: UNG
, STZ
, NXY
I've actually, while typing out this post, added one of the names on the list (yes these are legitimate setups unlike a lot of websites out there) as the setup looks solid and the market seemed interested in putting in a bottom to today's action. [more]
July 09, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: PCYC
I took the trade in Pharmaclyclics (PCYC) this morning - as it appeared in my scan as having higher than normal volume in the AM. Having traded and watched it quite a bit of late, this is one of those trades, where I saw it teste the 10-day moving average like it did previously and thought it would be worth taking a stab at, assuming it would hold again. Solid movers day-after-day like PCYC don't just lose interest from traders overnight, instead usually there is a large crowd waiting for it to pull back ever so slightly to jump in on the parade. [more]
July 09, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, DIA
Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern): [more]
July 08, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
We are finally starting to get extreme readings in the SPRI for the first time since this rally began back on 6/4 when the market hit its lows. That doesn't mean you get rid of your long positions, and we have not yet gotten a reversal signal. However, it doesn't mean you take this lightly, and what you should be doing is tightening those stops so that in the event we do reverse here in the next week or so, you don't give back all or the majority of your long-profits from the past month. [more]
July 06, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AUY
, SWIR
, IIIN
There's a couple of caveats I've got to mention first here. The first, I'm not looking to add any short positions to my portfolio, because there's not a significant breakdown at this point in the indices, and to think otherwise is based more on speculation than anything else. [more]
July 06, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Pre-market upadate (updated 9:00am eastern): [more]
July 05, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: VIP
, LFL
, VFC
Below are five stocks that I've identified as providing excellent risk/reward setups. I've already gone long in one of them - Wabco Holdings (WBC) at $53.98. [more]
July 05, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: WLT
Since the market opened this morning, I've been able to post some incredible gains in my long positions in CMG, NFLX, UA and HD. I actually sold a bit early in Netflix (NFLX) at $77.68 from $70 due partly to my incredible distrust of the stock - only to see it march higher to $80 (which actually doesn't bother me, stocks have the right to move higher or lower once I get out). But I am surprised by the early bullishness in my holdings despite the market weakness. [more]
July 05, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Pre-market upadate (9:00am eastern): [more]
July 03, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
Recently I was asked by one of my readers what do I determine to be a 'Gap-Fill' citing a lot of conflicting definitions, and vagueness surrounding this subject matter. [more]
July 03, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: HD
, NFLX
I've gotta say, that I am somewhat surprised by the fact the market is moving this morning - albeit a little over 5 points, but honestly I thought it would be a total snoozer today. I've taken the opportunity to add Home Depot (HD) at $51.50 and Netflix (NFLX) at $70 flat. [more]
July 03, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
, QQQ
, IWM
Pre-market upadate (7am eastern): [more]
July 02, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: PCYC
, V
, MO
This is by far one of my favorite stock screens, and one that has discovered some incredible winners in the past (CMG, MCD, and TICC to name a few), and this time around we have more stocks to take a look at then we have had in a very long time. So without further adieu, these are the stocks that continue to march higher, ignore market difficulties, and bring incredible returns to traders and investors alike. [more]
July 02, 2012 –
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RELATED TICKERS: SPY
The SPRI continues to march lock-step higher, and supported by the move in the RSI as well. This time around though, I will be very concerned with aggressively holding long positions once the SPRI begins to hit extremes as I think with resistance overhead in the indices, could ultimately lead to renewed weakness in the market. [more]
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