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davejh23 (< 20)

August 2011



Time to Buy BAC Puts?

August 24, 2011 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC

The stock is up big today, but I have a feeling it will reach new lows for the year within a week or two.  The fact that they feel the need to respond to every rumor and analyst comment just seems strange.  That they would take the time to ridicule Blodget, a blogger that's been banned from the securities industry, for his commentary seems doubly strange.  In normal times, a bank would ignore such comments, but BAC is trying awfully hard to manage perceptions right now.  Whether the rumors are well founded or not, BAC seems extremely worried right now.  [more]



Will Friday Start the Biggest Sell the News Event Ever?

August 23, 2011 – Comments (4)

I'm starting to believe that Bernake's statements later this week could trigger the biggest sell the news event in history.  Stocks are soaring today on the back of more dismal economic data...we're now batting a thousand on Fed factory activity surveys showing contraction.  Several weeks ago many economists were putting odds of a new recession later this year or early next year at 1-in-2 or now looks like the odds that we're already in a recession is closer to 1-in-1.  Housing continues to look worse than most had expected.  We've seen many more weak earnings reports and guidance than in the past several quarters as well.  Despite all this stocks are up on nothing but hope...headlines read "Wall Street Rallies on Fed Speculation".    [more]



Second Worst Monthly Decline After Just 1 Week

August 08, 2011 – Comments (0)

Looking back over the past 20 years, only October 2008 has had a larger monthly decline.  Of course, the market could turn higher here and reverse much of the damage done over the last week, but it could also keep tanking and give us the worst month ever.  Unless we get a sharp rally soon, the 20 week average on the S&P will soon cross below the 50 week average...a pretty reliable crash indicator.  The 5 and 13 month averages on the monthly chart can be looked at as well...there are very few false triggers, and none when stocks have fallen this far below the averages.  On the daily chart, the death cross on the S&P is just days away...some criticize this indicator as it gave two false triggers before the real deal in Dec. '07 and a false signal last Summer as well.  However, it's never given a false signal with stocks falling this far below the 200 day (currently ~13%).  Absent extreme Fed intervention, it looks like we might have a good bit more downside.  [more]



Q2 GDP & H2 Growth Estimates

August 02, 2011 – Comments (0)

From Goldman: "Nominal consumer spending declined by 0.2% (mom) in June, in contrast to consensus expectations for a small gain. In real terms consumer spending was unchanged in June, and revised figures show 0.1% declines in both May and April."  [more]

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